The 2011 Import and Export Market for Superphosphate Fertilizers in the United States by ICONGroup


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									  The 2011 Import and Export
  Market for Superphosphate
 Fertilizers in the United States

                         Professor Philip M. Parker, Ph. D.
                      Chaired Professor of Management Science
                    INSEAD (Singapore & Fontainebleau, France)                                      ©2011 ICON Group Ltd.

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                                About the Author
Dr. Philip M. Parker is the Eli Lilly Chaired Professor of Innovation, Business and Society at
INSEAD where he has taught courses on multivariate statistics and global competitive strategy
since 1988. He has also taught courses at MIT, Stanford University, Harvard University, UCLA,
UCSD, and the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. He is the author of six books
on the economic convergence of nations. These books introduce the notion of “physioeconomics”
which foresees a lack of global convergence in economic behaviors due to physiological and
physiographic forces. His latest book is "Physioeconomics: The Basis for Long-Run Economic
Growth" (MIT Press 2000). He has also published numerous articles in academic journals,
including The Rand Journal of Economics, Marketing Science, the Journal of International
Business Studies, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, International Journal of
Forecasting, the European Management Journal, the European Journal of Operational
Research, Journal of Marketing, International Journal of Research in Marketing, and Journal of
Marketing Research. He is also on the editorial boards of several academic journals.

Dr. Parker received his Ph.D. in Business Economics from the Wharton School of the University
of Pennsylvania and has Masters degrees in Finance and Banking (University of Aix-Marseille)
and Managerial Economics (Wharton). His undergraduate degrees are in mathematics, biology
and economics (minor in aeronautical engineering). He has consulted and/or taught courses in
Africa, the Middle East, Asia, Latin America, North America and Europe.

                                 About this Series
This series was created for international firms who rely on foreign export markets for a
substantial portion of their business or who might be threatened by foreign trade competition.
The estimates given in this report were created using a methodology developed by and under the
direct supervision of Professor Philip M. Parker, the Eli Lilly Chaired Professor of Innovation,
Business and Society, at INSEAD. The methodology, relying on historical figures of economic
growth and trade flows, estimates the market shares of some 150 countries for over 500 industrial
or product categories. The figures should be seen as market estimates, as opposed to historical
records, as these are projected for the current year of trade.

Some of the methodologies and research approaches used in this report have benefited from the
R&D Committee at INSEAD, whose research support is gratefully acknowledged. Additional
editorial assistance from Tiffany LaRochelle, ICON Group International, Inc., is also
acknowledged.                                                    ©2011 ICON Group Ltd.

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                                                               Contents        v

Table of Contents
1     INTRODUCTION AND METHODOLOGY                                         6
2     THE UNITED STATES AND THE WORLD MARKET                               8
    2.1        Imports in the United States in 2011                        8
    2.2        Exports from the United States in 2011                      8
3     IMPORTS IN THE UNITED STATES                                         9
    3.1        Africa                                                      9
       3.1.1      Egypt                                                    9
       3.1.2      Morocco                                                  9
       3.1.3      Tunisia                                                 10
    3.2        Asia                                                       10
       3.2.1      China                                                   10
       3.2.2      Japan                                                   11
    3.3        Latin America                                              11
       3.3.1      Mexico                                                  11
    3.4        North America & the Caribbean                              11
       3.4.1      Canada                                                  11
    3.5        the Middle East                                            12
       3.5.1      Israel                                                  12
       3.5.2      Lebanon                                                 12
4     EXPORTS FROM THE UNITED STATES                                      13
    4.1        Asia                                                       13
       4.1.1     Thailand                                                 13
    4.2        Latin America                                              13
       4.2.1     Mexico                                                   13
    4.3        North America & the Caribbean                              13
       4.3.1     Canada                                                   13
    4.4        Oceana                                                     14
       4.4.1     Australia                                                14
    5.1        Disclaimers & Safe Harbor                                  15
    5.2        ICON Group Ltd. User Agreement Provisions                  16                                    ©2011 ICON Group Ltd.
                                               Superphosphate Fertilizers in the United States    6

On the demand side, exporters and strategic planners focusing on superphosphate fertilizers in the
United States face a number of questions. Which countries are supplying superphosphate
fertilizers to the United States? How important is the United States compared to others in terms
of the entire global and regional market? How much do the imports of superphosphate fertilizers
vary from one country of origin to another in the United States? On the supply side, the United
States also exports superphosphate fertilizers. Which countries receive the most exports from the
United States? How are these exports concentrated across buyers? What is the value of these
exports and which countries are the largest buyers?

This report was created for strategic planners, international marketing executives and
import/export managers who are concerned with the market for superphosphate fertilizers in the
United States. With the globalization of this market, managers can no longer be contented with a
local view. Nor can managers be contented with out-of-date statistics which appear several years
after the fact. I have developed a methodology, based on macroeconomic and trade models, to
estimate the market for superphosphate fertilizers for those countries serving the United States via
exports, or supplying from the United States via imports. It does so for the current year based on
a variety of key historical indicators and econometric models.

In what follows, Chapter 2 begins by summarizing where the United States fits into the world
market for imported and exported superphosphate fertilizers. The total level of imports and
exports on a worldwide basis, and those for the United States in particular, is estimated using a
model which aggregates across over 150 key country markets and projects these to the current
year. From there, each country represents a percent of the world market. This market is served
from a number of competitive countries of origin. Based on both demand- and supply-side
dynamics, market shares by country of origin are then calculated across each country market
destination. These shares lead to a volume of import and export values for each country and are
aggregated to regional and world totals. In doing so, we are able to obtain maximum likelihood
estimates of both the value of each market and the share that the United States is likely to receive
this year. From these figures, rankings are calculated to allow managers to prioritize the United
States compared to other major country markets. In this way, all the figures provided in this
report are forecasts that can be combined with internal information sources for strategic planning

After the worldwide summary in Chapter 2 of both imports and exports of superphosphate
fertilizers, Chapter 3 goes into detail on imports, but for each major country of origin serving the
United States. A “major” market is defined as a country where the United States represents a
substantially large share of either imports or exports. For each major country exporting to the
United States, one can thus observe how important the United States is to that exporting country
compared to other countries of the world. Chapter 4 does the same, but for exports of
superphosphate fertilizers originating from the United States, for each major country of
destination. In doing so, one can discover the share that the United States has in each major                                                        ©2011 ICON Group Ltd.
                                                Superphosphate Fertilizers in the United States     7

market; this share value is often used as a measure of competitiveness for the United States. In
all cases, the total dollar volume and percentage share values by major trading partner are
provided. Combined, Chapters 3 and 4 present a the total picture for imports and exports of
superphosphate fertilizers to and from the United States to and from all other major countries in
the world. "Superphosphate Fertilizers" as a category is defined in this report following the
definition given by the United Nations Statistics Division Classification Registry using the
Standard International Trade Classification, Revision 3 (SITC, Rev. 3). The SITC code that
defined "superphosphate fertilizers" is 56222 . For more information on this definition, please
refer to the following web site: .

This report is updated on an annual basis. To ensure that you have the most current version,
please check the web site of ICON Group at

Important Caveat. The figures should be seen as market estimates, as opposed to historical
records, as these are forecasted for the current year of trade. More importantly, in light of the fact
that unforeseeable factors might interrupt markets in achieving their reported levels, the figures
should be seen as estimates of potential. For example, "mad cow" disease, foot-and-mouth
disease, trade embargoes, military conflicts, acts of terrorism and other events will certainly
affect the actual trade flows recorded for a variety of industry or product categories. In such
cases, the difference between the numbers given in this report and the numbers actually observed
might be interpreted as the "net loss" or "net gain" due to these exogenous events affecting
regular trade flows that would have occurred had these events not have taken place.                                                         ©2011 ICON Group Ltd.
                                                  Superphosphate Fertilizers in the United States        8

             Imported Superphosphate Fertilizers in the United States, 2011
                              (Structure of Foreign Import Competition)

Country of Origin             Rank         Value (000 US$)               % Share        Cumulative %
Morocco                            1                   44,165                47.80                   47.80
Lebanon                            2                   14,711                15.92                   63.73
Israel                             3                   11,346                12.28                   76.01
Mexico                             4                   10,941                11.84                   87.85
Tunisia                            5                    8,748                 9.47                   97.32
Egypt                              6                    1,712                 1.85                   99.17
China                              7                      534                 0.58                   99.75
Japan                              8                      198                 0.21                   99.96
Canada                             9                       34                 0.04                  100.00
Total                                                  92,389               100.00                  100.00
    Source: Philip M. PARKER, Professor, INSEAD, copyright 2011,

            Superphosphate Fertilizers Exports from the United States, 2011
Country of Destination        Rank         Value (000 US$)               % Share        Cumulative %
Australia                          1                   37,996                85.41                   85.41
Thailand                           2                    5,653                12.71                   98.11
Canada                             3                      565                 1.27                   99.38
Mexico                             4                      275                 0.62                  100.00
Total                                                  44,489               100.00                  100.00
    Source: Philip M. PARKER, Professor, INSEAD, copyright 2011,                                                           ©2011 ICON Group Ltd.
                                                  Superphosphate Fertilizers in the United States        9

3.1         AFRICA
3.1.1          Egypt
                    Superphosphate Fertilizers Exports from Egypt, 2011
Country of Destination        Rank         Value (000 US$)               % Share        Cumulative %
Argentina                         1                    29,704                37.96                   37.96
Brazil                            2                    21,744                27.78                   65.74
Italy                             3                    14,259                18.22                   83.96
Uruguay                           4                     3,249                 4.15                   88.11
Greece                            5                     2,155                 2.75                   90.86
Indonesia                         6                     1,851                 2.37                   93.23
the United States                 7                     1,712                 2.19                   95.42
Malaysia                          8                     1,344                 1.72                   97.13
Kenya                             9                     1,172                 1.50 
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