Dragon Proposal id 2608 DROUGHT MONITORING AND PREDICTION OVER CHINA Prof. Youqi Chen - Department of Agricultural Remote Sensing Application, Institute of Natural Resources and Regional Planning, Beijing (China) Dr. Liming Wang - Comprehensive Department, Remote Sensing Application Center, Ministry of Agriculture, Beijing (China) Prof. Li Jiren - Remote Sensing Technology Application Centre, Ministry of Water Resources, Beijing (China) Dr. Bob Su - Wageningen University & Research Centre, Alterra Green World Research (The Netherlands) Executive Summary The specific actions of the project can be described in the following: 1. A retrospective study of China at the national level, using satellite data from 1981 to present. The project will combine the satellite data with ground survey and experimental data to carry out a climatology of the most fragile areas to drought and the evolution of the ecotones by analysis of maps of critical physical parameters at regional scale, such as albedo, emissivity, vegetation coverage, land surface temperature, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture. 2. Construction of physically based drought indices that can be used to quantify the extent, severity and duration of droughts from local to national scales, adapting to the geographical and ecological situation, agricultural production in China. 3. Field measurements and experiments in north China areas chosen in critical zones in order to combine field measurements with satellite data. In these areas the algorithms proposed will be validated and/or improved. In this way we can: ∗ develop and evaluate the methodologies to derive the physical parameters from remote sensing data; ∗ evaluate the methodology to estimate evapotranspiration from remote sensing data; ∗ evaluate the methodology to estimate soil moisture from remote sensing data; ∗ evaluate the suitability of the established drought indices; ∗ evaluate the vegetation resistance to the aridity and the severe drought periods (summer periods and the severe inter-annual periods) for mapping ∗ the grade of water use efficiency. 4. An Internet based operational drought monitoring and prediction system will be developed applying GIS and WebGIS for drought relief decision-making. This will include software development for treatment of the databases of satellite images and production of the maps of interest, and on-time evaluation of the drought situation.\ 5. Transfer of knowledge and methodologies, and establishment of long-term co-operation between the participant groups of the ESA and China by workshops and scholar exchanges. To ensure the sustainability of the project, transfer of knowledge and methodologies, and establishment of long-term co-operation between the participant groups of ESA and China will be given high priority in this project. This will take the forms of dedicated training and exchanges of scientific and technical personnel involved in the development of the methodologies and the operational implementation of these methodologies. The objective of this project is: To develop an operational system for nation wide drought monitoring and drought impact assessment for application in agriculture and hydrology. The deliverables of the project correspond to the project objectives, which include: 1. A synthesis study of China at the national level, using satellite data from 1981 to present; a climatology of the drought prone areas and the evolution of the ecotones characterized by maps of critical parameters at regional scale, such as albedo, emissivity, vegetation coverage, land surface temperature, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture. 2. Physically based drought indices that can be used to quantify the extent, severity and duration of droughts from local to national scales. 3. Accuracy and reliability assessment of the methodologies to estimate evapotranspiration, soil moisture, drought indices and the vegetation resistance to severe droughts. 4. An Internet based operational drought monitoring and prediction system for drought relief decision making. 5. Training, scholar exchanges and workshops while transferring knowledge and methodologies, and establishment of long-term cooperation between the participant groups of the ESA and China. At least 3 technical staffs will be arranged to get trained by ESA to implement the related research work and maintain future operation of the system.