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Global Warming-

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					    Global Warming-
Past Trends and Future Projections




                Investigation by Edward Sun
                   Nepean High School
     Background Information
• Global warming is the increase in the
  Earth’s average surface temperature.
• Global warming is caused by the
  Greenhouse Effect and elevated emissions
  of greenhouse gases, notably carbon dioxide.
• Naturally occurring greenhouse gases help
  regulate the Earth's climate by trapping heat
  in the atmosphere and reflecting it back to
  the surface. However, human activities have
  amplified this natural process.
Background Information (Con’t)
• In the past century, the mean surface
  temperature on Earth has increased
  approximately 0.6 degrees Celsius.
• Eleven of the last twelve years rank among
  the twelve warmest years since 1850.
• If global warming is indeed caused by
  human activities, as suggested by many
  studies, then all of us are responsible to do
  something about it.
         Seeking An Answer
• Global warming is becoming one of the
  central issues of the world
• More and more people are becoming aware
  of the undesirable effects global warming
  could have on the Earth’s climate, due to
  much propaganda.
• Global temperatures have been rising and
  are projected to rise further in the future.
The Question
• What factors have been causing the Earth’s
  climate to change, and how will it change in
  the future?
• In an endeavour to answer the above
  question, I decided to investigate on the
  topic of global warming.
• As there are two parts to this question, data
  of past trends will be analyzed, and
  predictions for the future will be made
  based on these past trends.
My Hypotheses:
• In the future, the climate of the Earth will
  likely be warmer, the sea levels will likely
  rise, and weather patterns and precipitation
  will be affected. Human activities such as
  burning fossil fuels are responsible for past
  alterations of the Earth’s climate.
• Conducting research, analyzing secondary
  data, and studying relationships will help
  determine the precision of these hypotheses.
            Variables Examined
                                  The emission of
The amount of
precipitation?                         CO2?


                   What is the
                   relationship
                 between global
The amount        warming and:
of fossil fuel                         The number of
   burnt?                                motorized
                    Ocean                vehicles?
                    levels?
          A Potential Cause
• As global warming is primarily caused by
  an overabundance of greenhouse gases in
  the atmosphere, we will first consider some
  factors that could cause a rise in the
  atmospheric concentrations of gases such as
  carbon dioxide and nitrogen dioxide.
• What are some things that produce these
  gases?
     A Potential Cause (Con’t)
• The first to come to mind are cars that line
  the roads of cities, which are increasing in
  number every year.
• Burning gasoline releases carbon dioxide.
• As the combustion of gasoline is an
  absolute necessity for cars to run, the
  number of cars escalating through the years
  must surely mean that the amount of
  greenhouse gases entering the atmosphere
  has been increasing as well.
   • Below is graph of the total number of registered
     vehicles in Canada from year 1990 to 1995:
                           Total Number of Motorized Vehicles in Canada, 1990-1995

                16600000
                                          y = 239657x - 5E+08
                16400000                      R 2 = 0.9431
# of Vehicles




                16200000
                16000000
                15800000
                15600000
                15400000
                15200000
                       1989       1990     1991    1992          1993   1994   1995   1996
                                                          Year




The total number of registered vehicles in Canada had
been increasing at a steady rate in the six years.
• Canada’s economy was gradually growing, and
  the number of cars on the roads had been on the
  rise at an average rate of 1.33% each year.
• Now let us examine what effects this had had on
  the emissions of greenhouse gases in Canada.
                         Canada's Greenhouse Gas Emissions 1990-1995

               510
                                  y = 7.7114x - 14893
               500                    R 2 = 0.7928
  Megatonnes




               490
               480
               470
               460
               450
                 1989   1990    1991      1992          1993   1994    1995   1996
                                                 Year
• There was an increase in Canada’s emissions of
  greenhouse gases at the same time as the number
  of vehicles was mounting.

                          Total Number of Vehicles vs. GHG Emissions in Canada

              510
                                            y = 3E-05x + 6.32
              500
                                                R 2 = 0.696
 Megatonnes




              490

              480

              470

              460

              450
               15200000    15400000   15600000    15800000   16000000   16200000   16400000   16600000
                                                 Number of Vehicles
 When graphed onto the same axes, the strong,
 positive correlation




    =0.83427
suggests that the increase in the number of vehicles
may be causing a rise in the amount of greenhouse
gases released into the atmosphere.
When we study the same relationship for the United
States, we find similar, positive correlations.
                         Total Number of Vehicles in the US, 1991-2000

                230,000,000
                                          y = 4E+06x - 7E+09
                225,000,000
                                              R 2 = 0.9912
                220,000,000
# of Vehicles




                215,000,000
                210,000,000
                       Total Number of Vehicles vs. GHG Emissions in the US
                205,000,000
                200,000,000
                195,000,000
                 7200
                                         y = 3E-05x + 943.46
                190,000,000
                 7000
                                             R 2 = 0.9676
                185,000,000
                 6800
                          1990    1992      1994      1996     1998    2000     2002
     MMT




                 6600
                6400                                  Year
                6200
                6000
                  190,000 195,000 200,000 205,000 210,000 215,000 220,000 225,000 230,000
                    ,000    ,000    ,000    ,000    ,000    ,000    ,000   ,000     ,000
                                           Number of Vehicles
• Canada and the United States are selected in a
  cluster sample of countries in North America, as
  they are the dominant producers of greenhouse
  gases.
• Since it is shown by many studies that global
  warming is indeed caused by the Greenhouse
  Effect, we may be able to say from studying the
  above relationships that manufacturing more cars
  will contribute to global warming.
• However, as there are many other factors that can
  cause the Earth’s climate to change, we cannot
  conclude with certainty that the increase in the
  number of vehicles has caused significant changes
  to the concentration of greenhouse gases in our
  atmosphere.
         Burning of Fossil Fuels
• Burning fossil fuels is another major contributor to
  atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations.
                   Production of Energy
              biomass
                                            coal
                14%
   nuclear                                   24%
      5%
  hydro
    6%




    natural
      gas                                 oil
      18%                                 33%
• As we can see from the pie chart in the previous
  slide, about 75% of the world’s energy is
  produced by burning fossil fuels.
• Let us examine how this affects global warming.
  Here is a graph displaying the total fossil fuel CO2
  emissions in Canada between 1985 and 2004.
                       Total Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions in Canada

              200000                  y = 4058.1x - 8E+06
                                          R 2 = 0.9329
              150000
   TMTof C2




              100000

               50000

                   0
                   1984        1989           1994          1999   2004
                                                Year
 • Clearly, an increasing amount of carbon dioxide is
   being released from burning fossil fuels.
                                                 Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations, 1959-2004

                             390
  CO2 Concentrations (ppm)




                             380
                             370
                             360
                             350
                             340
                             330
                             320
                             310
                             300
                             290
                             280
                                   1959   1964    1969   1974   1979    1984   1989   1994   1999   2004
                                                                    Year                     Atmospheric CO2
                                                                                             Concentrations (ppm)



Now let us compare it with the temperature trend in the
Northern Hemisphere between 1960 and 2005.
                                      Temp.Deviation from 20-Year Avg., 1960-2005

                             1.4
Temp.Deviation (Hundredth


                             1.2
                               1
       of Degree C)



                             0.8
                             0.6
                             0.4
                             0.2
                               0
                               1950
                            -0.2         1960     1970     1980     1990       2000        2010
                            -0.4
                                                           Year            Temp.Deviation from 20-Year
                                                                           Avg.
                                                                           Linear (Temp.Deviation from
         • As much as the temperature deviations fluctuate,                20-Year Avg.)

           we can see from the linear trend line that the
           average temperature had been steadily increasing.
           The graph in the next slide clearly shows the
           cause-and-effect relationship between the two
           variables.
                                Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions vs. Temp. Deviations from 20-
Temp. Deviation (H undredth



                                                       Year Avg.
                              1.2
                                                           y = 9E- 06x - 0. 5897
                                1                               2
      of Deg ree C)




                                                               R = 0. 8914
                              0.8

                              0.6

                              0.4

                              0.2

                                0
                              100000   110000   120000 130000   140000   150000    160000 170000   180000
                                                     Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions
                          p. evi
                      Tem D at i on f r om 20-
                      Year Avg.
                      线性 (Temp.Deviation from
                      20- Year Avg. )
• It appears that the amount of fossil fuels burnt also
  has a strong, positive correlation with the rise in
  temperature.
• From studying the statistics, we learn that burning
  fossil fuels has indeed been producing more and
  more carbon dioxide each year.
• Since there is much evidence proving that global
  climate change is due to elevated levels of
  greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, it is fair to
  say that burning fossil fuels is definitely a
  contributing factor to the global temperature rises.
       Recent Trends and the Future
 • Despite much propaganda attempting to raise
   global awareness regarding global warming, the
   number of cars continues to increase, as do the
   sales of gasoline.
      Net Sales of Gasoline in Canada, 2002-2006         Net Sales of Diesel Oil in Canada, 2002-2006
39,500,000
                                                   25,000,000
39,000,000
                                                   20,000,000
38,500,000
                                                   15,000,000
38,000,000
                                                   10,000,000
37,500,000                                          5,000,000
37,000,000                                                 0
          02

          03

          04

          05

          06




                                                            02
                                                            03
                                                            04
                                                            05
                                                            06
        20

        20

        20

        20

        20




                                                          20
                                                          20
                                                          20
                                                          20
                                                          20
      Net Sales of Gasoline (Thousand Litres)
                                                           Net Sales of Diesel Oil (Thousand
      Linear (Net Sales of Gasoline (Thousand              Litres)
      Litres))                                             Linear (Net Sales of Diesel Oil
        Net Sales of Gasoline in Canada, 2002-2006         Net Sales of Diesel Oil in Canada, 2002-2006
 39,500,000


 39,000,000
                                                     25,000,000
                                                     20,000,000
 38,500,000
                                                     15,000,000
 38,000,000                                          10,000,000
                                                      5,000,000
 37,500,000
                                                             0
 37,000,000




                                                              02

                                                              03
                                                              04
                                                              05

                                                              06
                                                            20

                                                            20
                                                            20
                                                            20

                                                            20
           02

           03

           04

           05

           06
         20

         20

         20

         20

         20




                                                             Net Sales of Diesel Oil (Thousand
        Net Sales of Gasoline (Thousand Litres)              Litres)
        Linear (Net Sales of Gasoline (Thousand
                                                             Linear (Net Sales of Diesel Oil
                                                             (Thousand Litres))
• If we extrapolate on the graphs, we can easily predict
        Litres))



  that in about five years, the sales of gasoline in Canada
  will exceed 39 billion litres per year, while the sales of
  diesel oil will surpass 20 billion litres per year.
• The implications of this are clear without saying: more
  greenhouse gases will be produced, which may lead to
  further changes of the Earth’s climate.
• Now let us look at how the climate has been
  affected so far. On the following page is a graph
  on the average annual rainfall amounts in Canada
  between the years of 1989-2003.
                                      Average Annual Rainfall in Canada, 1989-2003

                           1700
 Amount of Rainfall (mm)




                           1600

                           1500

                           1400

                           1300

                           1200

                           1100

                           1000
                               1986     1990    1994    1998          2002   2006     2010         2014
                                                               Year
                                                                                    Aver age Annual Rai nf al l
                                                                                      m
                                                                                    (m)
                                                                                    线性 (Average Annual
• While there were great variations in the
  average yearly rainfall amounts during this
  decade and half, we can see from the
  negative slope of the trend line that on the
  whole, rainfall amounts had been
  decreasing.
• If this trend continues, then further drops in
  the amounts of rainfall can be expected.
• We can clearly see this by extending the
  trend line on the graph.
           On A Global Scale
• So we have seen that alterations in the climate of
  the northern hemisphere have been occurring. Let
  us see if changes are also taking place on a global
  scale.
• If the global temperatures have indeed been
  getting warmer, then we can expect to perceive
  visible changes in the Polar Regions, where a rise
  in temperature can cause the ice to melt.
• Examining the graph on the following slide allows
  us to see the changes that had been occurring in
  the Arctic ice thickness between the years of 1990
  to 1997.
                                      Arctic Ice Thickness, 1990-1997

                       3.5
  Mean Ice Draft (m)
                        3
                       2.5
                        2
                       1.5
                        1
                       0.5
                        0
                        1990   1991   1992   1993   1994    1995   1996      1997    1998
                                                    Year
                                                                        M          r
                                                                         ean I ce D af t ( m)
                                                                        线性 (Mean Ice Draft (m))

• As we can see, the sea ice had indeed been melting
  and getting thinner over these seven years.
• Because global temperatures have been climbing
  constantly, we can conclude that the ice melting is
  due to global warming.
• Another question arises from this conclusion:
  What happens to the sea level as the ice melts?
  The logical answer is that it will rise. Let us see if
  this is true.
                       Changes in Sea Level, Barents Sea (1978-2000)

               30

               25

               20

               15
Change (cm)




               10

                5

                0
                1975   1980   1985   1990    1995   2000    2005       2010    2015
               -5

              -10

              -15
                                             Year             Changes in Sea Level (cm)

                                                              Linear (Changes in Sea
                                                              Level (cm))
• As predicted, the sea levels are indeed rising. This
  can also be attributed to the global climate
  changes, as we have already concluded that global
  warming is what causes the ice to melt.
• Let us examine a recent set of data:

            Year               Rise in Sea Level (cm)
            1995                         15
            1996                          9
            1997                         15
            1998                         10
            1999                         17
            2000                         18
• Assuming current trends will stay the same
  in the future, the likelihood of the Barents
  Sea level rising more than 10 cm in a future
  year is 4/6 or 67%.
• The probability of the number of years the
  Barents Sea rises over 10 cm in sea level in
  the next twenty years can be shown by a
  binomial distribution:
# of Years the Barents Sea Level Rises Over 10 cm (x)                    P (x)
                         0                                            0 (0.33)20 =   2.35X10-10
                                                        20C0 (0.67)

                         1                                            1 (0.33)19 =   9.53X10-9
                                                        20C1 (0.67)

                         2                                            2 (0.33)18 =   1.83X10-7
                                                        20C2 (0.67)

                         3                                            3 (0.33)17 =   2.24X10-6
                                                        20C3 (0.67)

                         4                                            4 (0.33)16 =   1.93X10-5
                                                        20C4 (0.67)

                         5                                            5 (0.33)15 =   1.25X10-4
                                                        20C5 (0.67)

                         6                                         6      14         6.37X10-4
                                                        20C6 (0.67) (0.33) =

                         7                                            7 (0.33)13 =   2.59X10-3
                                                        20C7 (0.67)

                         8                                            8 (0.33)12 =   8.53X10-3
                                                        20C8 (0.67)

                         9                                            9 (0.33)11 =   2.31X10-2
                                                        20C9 (0.67)

                         10                             20C10   (0.67)10 (0.33)10 = 5.16X10-2
                         11                             20C11   (0.67)11 (0.33)9 = 9.52X10-2
                         12                              20C12   (0.67)12 (0.33)8 = 0.1450
                         13                              20C13    (0.67)13 (0.33)7 = 0.1811
                         14                              20C14   (0.67)14 (0.33)6 = 0.1839
                         15                              20C15   (0.67)15 (0.33)5 = 0.1493
                         16                             20C16   (0.67)16 (0.33)4 = 9.47X10-2
                         17                             20C17   (0.67)17 (0.33)3 = 4.53X10-2
                         18                             20C18   (0.67)18 (0.33)2 = 1.53X10-2
                         19                             20C19   (0.67)19 (0.33)1 =3.27X10-3
                         20                             20C20   (0.67)20 (0.33)0 = 3.32X10-4
• As we can see from the chart from the previous
  slide, it is most likely that the sea level of the
  Barents Sea will rise over 10 cm in 12 to 15 years
  of the future twenty years, if the current trend
  continues. The expected number of years E (x) is
  20X0.67= 13.4 years.
• Now let us calculate the probability that the
  Barents Sea rises over 10 cm in ten or more of the
  twenty years ahead. Since np=20X0.67=13.4 and
  nq=20X0.33=6.6 (both greater than 5), it is
  reasonable to use a normal distribution to
  approximate.
• The mean (μ) will be np=13.4, and the standard
  deviation (σ) will equal to (npq)½=(20X0.67X0.33)
  ½=2.1
P(x > 9.5)
= 1 – P(x < 9.5)
= 1 – P(z < (9.5–13.4)/2.1)
= 1 – P(z < -1.86)
= 1 – 0.0314
≈ 0.97

The normal approximation shows that the likelihood
of the Barents Sea rising over 10 cm in ten or more of
the twenty future years is about 97%.
This high probability is also an indicator of how
much the global climate has changed, and how much
it will continue to change if the current trends persist.
                 In Conclusion
• Strong, positive correlations have been found between
  the atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases
  and some human activities that produce such gases.
• Analyzing climate patterns allowed calculations to be
  done on the likelihood of further climate changes.
  These calculations show that it is extremely likely for
  the Earth’s climate to continue changing in the future.
• Looking at the obtained results, it seems that global
  warming has indeed been caused by human activities,
  and the Earth’s climate will likely experience further
  changes, as stated in the hypothesis
Con’t
• Although the gathered statistics all strongly
  support the hypothesis, they do not confirm its
  precision.
• While it is extremely probable that the hypothesis
  is correct, the fact remains that there are numerous
  other factors that can contribute to the greenhouse
  effect, and many organizations around the world
  are taking action to slow, if not stop global
  warming.
            Bias in the Data
• Data were collected from trustworthy
  websites to minimize the number of results
  that are skewed due to various forms of bias.
• However, in some cases the sample sizes
  may have been too small and may not be
  representative of how the climate of the
  entire globe has been changing.
End of Presentation

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