ROMANIA
NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF STATISTICS Press Office 16 Libertăţii Avenue, Sector 5, Bucharest Phone/Fax: 318 18 69; Fax 312 48 75 e-mail: romstat@insse.ro; biroupresa@insse.ro
PRESS RELEASE
No. 119 of June 9, 2009
Gross domestic product in the first quarter of 2009
Unadjusted series Gross Domestic Product estimated for the first quarter of 2009 was lei 96521.4 million current prices, decreasing – in real terms – by 6.2% as against the first quarter of 2008. Important falls of activity volume were registered in agriculture, forestry and fishery (-10.9%), industry (-11.1%), trade, repair of cars and housing articles, hotels and restaurants, transport and communications (-7.6%) and financial activities, real estate, rentals and business services (-3.8%). Volume of product tax collected at state budget was also reduced, net taxes on product registering a fall of 9.4%. Construction and other activities of services increased their volume of activity by 4.7%, respectively 3.1%. From the viewpoint of GDP use, in the first quarter of 2009, domestic demand decreased by 13.7 percentages, as compared to the same quarter of 2008, mostly due to lower total final consumption by 9.1%. Expenditure for household final consumption diminished by 12.3 percentages, as a result of lower volume of retail sales of goods (-16.0%) and of services rendered to the population (-5.4%). Gross fixed capital formation slightly fell, as compared to the first quarter of 2008, registering a decrease of 0.3%. A positive effect to be underlined is related to the significant improve of net export as a result of higher fall registered by volume of imports (-31.4%) as against that of export volume (-19.6%). Seasonally adjusted series Besides quarterly GDP gross estimations, since 2009, seasonally adjusted estimations are calculated by regressive method, this method being recommended by European regulations. Seasonal adjustment aims at eliminating seasonal effects within the data series to point out real economic evolution from successive periods. To adjust the series of main aggregates on whose base GDP is estimated by production method and expenditure method, we use the DEMETRA programs package (TRAMO/SEATS method). It estimates the seasonal effect (events taking place the same moment, the same magnitude and direction each year, such as: seasons, holidays, etc., number of working days different from one month to another and calendar effect (orthodox Easter, leap year and other national holidays) as well as identification and correction of extreme values (occasional, transitory or permanent level changes) and missing values interpolation.
NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF STATISTICS PRESS RELEASE NO. 119 /2009
Quarterly national accounts in Romania generally presents a strong seasonality, working days and calendar not having a significant effect. It is necessary to apply adjusted methods for these two components. Seasonally adjusted series was obtained eliminating the seasonal effect from unadjusted series, by means of correction coefficients, set up according to the regression model used (additive or multiplicative). Additive or multiplicative model used for regression is identified automatically by Demetra program in keeping with the nature of series submitted to adjustment. Seasonally adjusted GDP is obtained by direct method, causing a statistical discrepancy between GDP and sum of its seasonally adjusted components independently. Setting up the regression methods used for each series is done at the beginning of each year and involves the recalculation of adjusted series calculated in the previous year (this recalculation is determined by the change of adopted models, number of regressors used and number of available observations). Regular review of unadjusted data series from national accounts also involves review of seasonally adjusted series. GDP - % as against the previous quarter
220.0 200.0 180.0 160.0 140.0 120.0 100.0 80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0
2000Q2 2000Q4 2001Q2 2001Q4 2002Q2 2002Q4 2003Q2 2003Q4 2004Q2 2004Q4 2005Q2 2005Q4 2006Q2 2006Q4 2007Q2 2007Q4 2008Q2
-20.0 -40.0 -60.0 -80.0 -100.0 -120.0 -140.0 -160.0
2008Q4
0.0
%
period
unadjusted series
seasonally adjusted series
seasonal component
Gross Domestic Product – seasonally adjusted data - estimated for the first quarter of 2009 amounted to 128727.9 million current prices, decreasing – in real terms – by 4.6% as against the fourth quarter of 2008.
NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF STATISTICS PRESS RELEASE NO. 119 /2009
Falls of activity volume were registered in agriculture, forestry and fishery (-7.6%), industry (1,4%), trade, repair of cars and housing articles, hotels and restaurants, transport and communications (3.7%) and construction (-0.3%) . Volume of product taxes collected at state budget fell, net taxes on product registering a decrease of 2.1%. Financial activities, real estate, rentals and business services and other activities of services slightly increased their activity volume by 0.4%, respectively by 0.1%. From the viewpoint of Gross Domestic Product use, in the first quarter of 2009, all the components, except expenditure for final consumption of non-lucrative institutions in the service of population households, reduced their activity volume as compared to the fourth quarter of 2008. Total final consumption reduced by 1.6%, mostly due to lower expenditure for final individual consumption of public administrations (-7.3%) and final actual collective consumption of public administrations (14.7%). Expenditure for final consumption of population households diminished by only 0.5%. Gross fixed capital formation registered a significant fall of 7.1%, as compared to the fourth quarter of 2008. A positive effect over net export had lower volume of exports of goods and services (-8.1%) to a lower extent than that of volume of imports of goods and services (-14.3%). Data regarding quarterly GDP – gross and seasonally adjusted series – for period of Q 1 2000 – Q 1 2009 will be issued on INS site: www.insse.ro.
NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF STATISTICS PRESS RELEASE NO. 119 /2009
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT BY CATEGORY OF RESOURSES AND USES IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2009
- unadjusted series Achievements – million lei Volume indices – current prices in % as against the first quarter of 2008 Price indices - in % as against the first quarter of 2008 -
Agriculture, forestry, fishery Industry Construction Trade, repair of cars and housing articles; hotels and restaurants; transport and telecommunications Financial activities; real estate, rentals and business services
2207,5 23547,9 6584,2
89,1 88,9 104,7
122,7 111,6 112,4
23302,0
92,4
109,0
16601,5 Other activities of services Gross value added – total Net taxes on product 2)
1)
96,2 103,1 94,3 90,6
114,0 121,1 113,0 111,9
13222,3 85465,4 11056,0
Gross Domestic Product
Actual final consumption Actual final individual consumption of households 3) Expenditure for final consumption of households
96521,4
85908,9 76414,6 64811,9
93,8
90,9 89,5 87,7 102,0 102,1 104,0 63,3 99,7 80,4 68,6
112,9
107,8 107,8 107,0 109,1 112,5 107,6 142,5 108,8 119,7 116,5
Expenditure for final consumption of non-lucrative institutions in households service Expenditure for final individual consumption of public administrations Actual final collective consumption of public administrations 4) Gross capital formation Of which: Gross fixed capital formation Net export of goods and services Export of goods and services Import of goods and services
733,7 10869,0 9494,3 16018,5 23287,0 -5406,0 35635,1 41041,1
1) Include activity of general government and defense, education, health and social assistance and other services rendered to the population. 2) Represents the difference between product taxes to the state budget (VAT, excise duties, other taxes) and product subsidies paid from state budget. 3) Include: expenditure of population households to purchase goods and services in order to meet the needs of their members, expenditure for individual consumption of public administration (education, health, social security and social actions, culture, sport, recreation activities, collection of housing garbage) and expenditure for individual consumption of non-lucrative institutions in the service of population households (religious organizations, trade unions, political parties, unions, foundations, cultural and sport associations). 4) Include expenditure for collective consumption of public administrations (general public services, national defense and territory security, public order and security, legislative and regulation activities, research and development, etc.).
NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF STATISTICS PRESS RELEASE NO. 119 /2009
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT BY CATEGORY OF RESOURCES AND USES IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2009
- seasonally adjusted series Achievements – million lei current prices Volume indices - in % as against the fourth quarter of 2008 92,4 98,6 99,7 96,3 100,4 100,1 97,9 97,9 Price indices - in % as against the fourth quarter of 2008 104,8 108,6 104,5 101,6 101,4 106,1 104,9 97,0 -
Agriculture, forestry, fishery Industry Construction Trade; repair of cars and housing articles; hotels and restaurants; transport and telecommunications Financial activities; real estate, rentals and business services
8281,0 29915,9 14369,5 29093,5 16851,1
Other activities of services Gross value added – total Net taxes on product 2) Statistical discrepancy
1)
19605,0 118116,0 13145,2 -2533,3
Gross Domestic Product
Actual final consumption Actual final individual consumption of households 3) Expenditure for final consumption of households
128727,9
98781,9 88707,9 75704,1
95,4
98,4 99,1 99,5 100,7 92,7 85,3 86,4 92,9 91,9 85,7 -
104,6
98,0 98,5 96,7 101,1 115,7 102,2 111,2 103,4 104,9 103,5 -
Expenditure for final consumption of non-lucrative institutions in households service Expenditure for final individual consumption of public administrations Actual final collective consumption of public administrations 4) Gross capital formation of which: Gross fixed capital formation Net export of goods and services Export of goods and services Import of goods and services Statistical discrepancy
1353,3 11650,5 10074,0 37807,7 38957,6 -7134,0 36348,8 43482,8 -727,7
1) Include activity of public administration and defense, education, health and social assistance and other services rendered to the population. 2) Represent the difference between product taxes to the state budget (VAT, excise duties, other taxes) and subsidies on product paid from state budget. 3) Include: expenditure of population households to purchase goods and services to meet the needs of their members, expenditure for individual consumption of public administration (education, health, social security and social actions, culture, sport, recreation activities, collection of housing garbage) and expenditure for individual consumption of non-lucrative institutions in the service of households (religious organizations, trade unions, political parties, unions, foundations, cultural and sport associations). 4) Include expenditure for collective consumption of public administrations (general public services, national defense and territory security, public order and security, legislative and regulation activities, research and development, etc.).
NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF STATISTICS PRESS RELEASE NO. 119 /2009
EVOLUTION OF GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT IN MEMBER STATES OF EUROPEAN UNION
- seasonally adjusted series In % as against previous quarter 2008 II quarter EU 27 -0,1 III quarter -0,4 IV quarter -1,7 2009 I quarter -2,4 II quarter 1,7 In % as against same quarter of previous year 2008 III quarter 0,7 IV quarter -1,6 2009 I quarter -4,5
Belgium Bulgaria * Czech Republic Germany Estonia * Spain France Italy Cyprus Latvia Lithuania Hungary Netherlands * Austria Poland Portugal Romania Romania * Slovakia * Sweden U.K.
•
0,3 0,7 -0,5 -1,7 0,1 -0,4 -0,6 0,7 -1,4 0,2 -0,3 -0,1 0,2 0,7 0,1 1,7 1,9 0,0 0,0
0,0 0,3 -0,5 -2,2 -0,3 -0,2 -0,8 0,4 -0,4 -0,3 -0,8 -0,5 0,0 0,7 -0,4 -0,1 1,8 -0,5 -0,7
-1,7 -0,9 -2,2 -4,3 -1,0 -1,5 -2,1 0,5 -3,9 -1,4 -1,5 -1,2 -0,4 0,0 -1,9 -2,8 2,1 -5,0 -1,6
-1,6 -3,8 -6,5 -1,9 -1,2 -2,4 0,0 -11,2 -10,5 -2,3 -2,8 -2,8 0,4 -1,5 -4,6 -11,2 -0,9 -1,9
1,9 7,1 4,0 2,0 -1,1 1,8 1,0 -0,3 4,1 -2,9 4,6 1,3 3,5 2,3 5,5 0,7 9,4 9,3 7,9 1,2 1,8
1,1 6,8 2,9 0,8 -3,5 0,9 0,1 -1,3 3,4 -5,6 2,0 0,1 2,0 1,6 4,9 0,3 8,2 9,2 6,6 0,2 0,4
-1,0 3,5 0,7 -1,8 -9,7 -0,7 -1,7 -3,0 2,8 -10,4 -1,3 -1,7 -0,6 0,4 2,6 -2,0 2,3 2,9 2,5 -5,1 -2,0
-3,0 -3,5 -3,4 -6,9 -15,6 -3,0 -3,2 -5,9 1,6 -18,6 -11,8 -4,7 -4,5 -2,9 1,9 -3,7 -5,7 -6,2 -5,4 -6,4 -4,1
Percentage change against same period of previous year calculated from seasonally unadjusted data (gross)
NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF STATISTICS PRESS RELEASE NO. 119 /2009