The 2011 Import and Export Market for Portland Cement in the United States by ICONGroup


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									 The 2011 Import and Export
Market for Portland Cement in
      the United States

                         Professor Philip M. Parker, Ph. D.
                      Chaired Professor of Management Science
                    INSEAD (Singapore & Fontainebleau, France)                                      ©2011 ICON Group Ltd.

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                                About the Author
Dr. Philip M. Parker is the Eli Lilly Chaired Professor of Innovation, Business and Society at
INSEAD where he has taught courses on multivariate statistics and global competitive strategy
since 1988. He has also taught courses at MIT, Stanford University, Harvard University, UCLA,
UCSD, and the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. He is the author of six books
on the economic convergence of nations. These books introduce the notion of “physioeconomics”
which foresees a lack of global convergence in economic behaviors due to physiological and
physiographic forces. His latest book is "Physioeconomics: The Basis for Long-Run Economic
Growth" (MIT Press 2000). He has also published numerous articles in academic journals,
including The Rand Journal of Economics, Marketing Science, the Journal of International
Business Studies, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, International Journal of
Forecasting, the European Management Journal, the European Journal of Operational
Research, Journal of Marketing, International Journal of Research in Marketing, and Journal of
Marketing Research. He is also on the editorial boards of several academic journals.

Dr. Parker received his Ph.D. in Business Economics from the Wharton School of the University
of Pennsylvania and has Masters degrees in Finance and Banking (University of Aix-Marseille)
and Managerial Economics (Wharton). His undergraduate degrees are in mathematics, biology
and economics (minor in aeronautical engineering). He has consulted and/or taught courses in
Africa, the Middle East, Asia, Latin America, North America and Europe.

                                 About this Series
This series was created for international firms who rely on foreign export markets for a
substantial portion of their business or who might be threatened by foreign trade competition.
The estimates given in this report were created using a methodology developed by and under the
direct supervision of Professor Philip M. Parker, the Eli Lilly Chaired Professor of Innovation,
Business and Society, at INSEAD. The methodology, relying on historical figures of economic
growth and trade flows, estimates the market shares of some 150 countries for over 500 industrial
or product categories. The figures should be seen as market estimates, as opposed to historical
records, as these are projected for the current year of trade.

Some of the methodologies and research approaches used in this report have benefited from the
R&D Committee at INSEAD, whose research support is gratefully acknowledged. Additional
editorial assistance from Tiffany LaRochelle, ICON Group International, Inc., is also
acknowledged.                                                    ©2011 ICON Group Ltd.

                           About ICON Group Ltd.
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                                                        Contents        v

Table of Contents
1     INTRODUCTION AND METHODOLOGY                                  7
2     THE UNITED STATES AND THE WORLD MARKET                        9
    2.1    Imports in the United States in 2011                     9
    2.2    Exports from the United States in 2011                  10
3     IMPORTS IN THE UNITED STATES                                 11
    3.1      Africa                                                11
       3.1.1    Egypt                                              11
    3.2      Asia                                                  12
       3.2.1    China                                              12
       3.2.2    Hong Kong                                          13
       3.2.3    Indonesia                                          13
       3.2.4    Japan                                              14
       3.2.5    Philippines                                        14
       3.2.6    South Korea                                        15
       3.2.7    Taiwan                                             15
       3.2.8    Thailand                                           16
    3.3      Europe                                                17
       3.3.1    Belgium                                            17
       3.3.2    Bulgaria                                           17
       3.3.3    Denmark                                            18
       3.3.4    Germany                                            19
       3.3.5    Greece                                             20
       3.3.6    Italy                                              21
       3.3.7    Norway                                             21
       3.3.8    Poland                                             22
       3.3.9    Spain                                              22
       3.3.10 Sweden                                               23
       3.3.11 Switzerland                                          23
       3.3.12 the Netherlands                                      24
    3.4      Latin America                                         24
       3.4.1    Brazil                                             24
       3.4.2    Colombia                                           25
       3.4.3    Mexico                                             25
       3.4.4    Peru                                               26
       3.4.5    Venezuela                                          26
    3.5      North America & the Caribbean                         26
       3.5.1    Barbados                                           26
       3.5.2    Canada                                             27
       3.5.3    Dominican Republic                                 27
    3.6      Oceana                                                27
       3.6.1    Australia                                          27
    3.7      the Middle East                                       28
       3.7.1    the United Arab Emirates                           28
       3.7.2    Turkey                                             29
4     EXPORTS FROM THE UNITED STATES                               30
    4.1      Africa                                                30
       4.1.1   the Gambia                                          30
    4.2      Asia                                                  31                             ©2011 ICON Group Ltd.
                                                           Contents        vi

       4.2.1    China                                                 31
       4.2.2    India                                                 32
       4.2.3    Indonesia                                             32
       4.2.4    Japan                                                 33
       4.2.5    Malaysia                                              33
       4.2.6    Philippines                                           34
       4.2.7    South Korea                                           34
       4.2.8    Thailand                                              35
    4.3      Europe                                                   35
       4.3.1    Germany                                               35
       4.3.2    Ireland                                               36
       4.3.3    Italy                                                 36
       4.3.4    Russia                                                37
       4.3.5    Spain                                                 38
       4.3.6    Sweden                                                38
       4.3.7    the United Kingdom                                    39
    4.4      Latin America                                            39
       4.4.1    Argentina                                             39
       4.4.2    Brazil                                                40
       4.4.3    Costa Rica                                            40
       4.4.4    Ecuador                                               41
       4.4.5    Guatemala                                             41
       4.4.6    Guyana                                                42
       4.4.7    Mexico                                                42
       4.4.8    Nicaragua                                             42
       4.4.9    Panama                                                43
       4.4.10 Peru                                                    43
    4.5      North America & the Caribbean                            44
       4.5.1    Canada                                                44
       4.5.2    Trinidad and Tobago                                   44
    4.6      Oceana                                                   45
       4.6.1    Australia                                             45
    4.7      the Middle East                                          46
       4.7.1    Qatar                                                 46
       4.7.2    Saudi Arabia                                          47
    5.1    Disclaimers & Safe Harbor                                  48
    5.2    ICON Group Ltd. User Agreement Provisions                  49                                ©2011 ICON Group Ltd.
                                                       Portland Cement in the United States      7

On the demand side, exporters and strategic planners focusing on portland cement in the United
States face a number of questions. Which countries are supplying portland cement to the United
States? How important is the United States compared to others in terms of the entire global and
regional market? How much do the imports of portland cement vary from one country of origin
to another in the United States? On the supply side, the United States also exports portland
cement. Which countries receive the most exports from the United States? How are these
exports concentrated across buyers? What is the value of these exports and which countries are
the largest buyers?

This report was created for strategic planners, international marketing executives and
import/export managers who are concerned with the market for portland cement in the United
States. With the globalization of this market, managers can no longer be contented with a local
view. Nor can managers be contented with out-of-date statistics which appear several years after
the fact. I have developed a methodology, based on macroeconomic and trade models, to
estimate the market for portland cement for those countries serving the United States via exports,
or supplying from the United States via imports. It does so for the current year based on a variety
of key historical indicators and econometric models.

In what follows, Chapter 2 begins by summarizing where the United States fits into the world
market for imported and exported portland cement. The total level of imports and exports on a
worldwide basis, and those for the United States in particular, is estimated using a model which
aggregates across over 150 key country markets and projects these to the current year. From
there, each country represents a percent of the world market. This market is served from a
number of competitive countries of origin. Based on both demand- and supply-side dynamics,
market shares by country of origin are then calculated across each country market destination.
These shares lead to a volume of import and export values for each country and are aggregated to
regional and world totals. In doing so, we are able to obtain maximum likelihood estimates of
both the value of each market and the share that the United States is likely to receive this year.
From these figures, rankings are calculated to allow managers to prioritize the United States
compared to other major country markets. In this way, all the figures provided in this report are
forecasts that can be combined with internal information sources for strategic planning purposes.

After the worldwide summary in Chapter 2 of both imports and exports of portland cement,
Chapter 3 goes into detail on imports, but for each major country of origin serving the United
States. A “major” market is defined as a country where the United States represents a
substantially large share of either imports or exports. For each major country exporting to the
United States, one can thus observe how important the United States is to that exporting country
compared to other countries of the world. Chapter 4 does the same, but for exports of portland
cement originating from the United States, for each major country of destination. In doing so,
one can discover the share that the United States has in each major market; this share value is
often used as a measure of competitiveness for the United States. In all cases, the total dollar                                                      ©2011 ICON Group Ltd.
                                                         Portland Cement in the United States       8

volume and percentage share values by major trading partner are provided. Combined, Chapters
3 and 4 present a the total picture for imports and exports of portland cement to and from the
United States to and from all other major countries in the world. "Portland Cement" as a category
is defined in this report following the definition given by the United Nations Statistics Division
Classification Registry using the Standard International Trade Classification, Revision 3 (SITC,
Rev. 3). The SITC code that defined "portland cement" is 66122 . For more information on this
definition, please refer to the following web site: .

This report is updated on an annual basis. To ensure that you have the most current version,
please check the web site of ICON Group at

Important Caveat. The figures should be seen as market estimates, as opposed to historical
records, as these are forecasted for the current year of trade. More importantly, in light of the fact
that unforeseeable factors might interrupt markets in achieving their reported levels, the figures
should be seen as estimates of potential. For example, "mad cow" disease, foot-and-mouth
disease, trade embargoes, military conflicts, acts of terrorism and other events will certainly
affect the actual trade flows recorded for a variety of industry or product categories. In such
cases, the difference between the numbers given in this report and the numbers actually observed
might be interpreted as the "net loss" or "net gain" due to these exogenous events affecting
regular trade flows that would have occurred had these events not have taken place.                                                        ©2011 ICON Group Ltd.
                                                           Portland Cement in the United States         9

                   Imported Portland Cement in the United States, 2011
                              (Structure of Foreign Import Competition)

Country of Origin             Rank         Value (000 US$)              % Share        Cumulative %
Canada                            1                  433,807                15.08                  15.08
China                             2                  405,069                14.08                  29.17
Thailand                          3                  279,450                 9.72                  38.88
Greece                            4                  248,771                 8.65                  47.53
South Korea                       5                  212,087                 7.37                  54.90
Mexico                            6                  192,561                 6.69                  61.60
Taiwan                            7                  179,904                 6.25                  67.85
Venezuela                         8                  178,263                 6.20                  74.05
Colombia                          9                  159,130                 5.53                  79.58
Indonesia                        10                   84,719                 2.95                  82.53
Sweden                           11                   82,106                 2.85                  85.38
Turkey                           12                   73,106                 2.54                  87.93
Peru                             13                   61,903                 2.15                  90.08
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