The 2011 Import and Export Market for Parts of Nuclear Reactors in the United States by ICONGroup


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									   The 2011 Import and Export
   Market for Parts of Nuclear
   Reactors in the United States

                         Professor Philip M. Parker, Ph. D.
                      Chaired Professor of Management Science
                    INSEAD (Singapore & Fontainebleau, France)                                      ©2011 ICON Group Ltd.

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                                About the Author
Dr. Philip M. Parker is the Eli Lilly Chaired Professor of Innovation, Business and Society at
INSEAD where he has taught courses on multivariate statistics and global competitive strategy
since 1988. He has also taught courses at MIT, Stanford University, Harvard University, UCLA,
UCSD, and the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. He is the author of six books
on the economic convergence of nations. These books introduce the notion of “physioeconomics”
which foresees a lack of global convergence in economic behaviors due to physiological and
physiographic forces. His latest book is "Physioeconomics: The Basis for Long-Run Economic
Growth" (MIT Press 2000). He has also published numerous articles in academic journals,
including The Rand Journal of Economics, Marketing Science, the Journal of International
Business Studies, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, International Journal of
Forecasting, the European Management Journal, the European Journal of Operational
Research, Journal of Marketing, International Journal of Research in Marketing, and Journal of
Marketing Research. He is also on the editorial boards of several academic journals.

Dr. Parker received his Ph.D. in Business Economics from the Wharton School of the University
of Pennsylvania and has Masters degrees in Finance and Banking (University of Aix-Marseille)
and Managerial Economics (Wharton). His undergraduate degrees are in mathematics, biology
and economics (minor in aeronautical engineering). He has consulted and/or taught courses in
Africa, the Middle East, Asia, Latin America, North America and Europe.

                                 About this Series
This series was created for international firms who rely on foreign export markets for a
substantial portion of their business or who might be threatened by foreign trade competition.
The estimates given in this report were created using a methodology developed by and under the
direct supervision of Professor Philip M. Parker, the Eli Lilly Chaired Professor of Innovation,
Business and Society, at INSEAD. The methodology, relying on historical figures of economic
growth and trade flows, estimates the market shares of some 150 countries for over 500 industrial
or product categories. The figures should be seen as market estimates, as opposed to historical
records, as these are projected for the current year of trade.

Some of the methodologies and research approaches used in this report have benefited from the
R&D Committee at INSEAD, whose research support is gratefully acknowledged. Additional
editorial assistance from Tiffany LaRochelle, ICON Group International, Inc., is also
acknowledged.                                                    ©2011 ICON Group Ltd.

                           About ICON Group Ltd.
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                                                        Contents        v

Table of Contents
1     INTRODUCTION AND METHODOLOGY                                  7
2     THE UNITED STATES AND THE WORLD MARKET                        9
    2.1    Imports in the United States in 2011                     9
    2.2    Exports from the United States in 2011                  10
3     IMPORTS IN THE UNITED STATES                                 11
    3.1      Asia                                                  11
       3.1.1   Japan                                               11
    3.2      Europe                                                11
       3.2.1   Belgium                                             11
       3.2.2   Czech Republic                                      12
       3.2.3   Denmark                                             12
       3.2.4   France                                              12
       3.2.5   Germany                                             13
       3.2.6   Italy                                               13
       3.2.7   Spain                                               14
       3.2.8   Sweden                                              14
    3.3      North America & the Caribbean                         14
       3.3.1   Canada                                              14
4     EXPORTS FROM THE UNITED STATES                               15
    4.1      Asia                                                  15
       4.1.1    China                                              15
       4.1.2    Japan                                              16
       4.1.3    Malaysia                                           16
       4.1.4    South Korea                                        16
       4.1.5    Taiwan                                             17
    4.2      Europe                                                17
       4.2.1    Belgium                                            17
       4.2.2    Finland                                            17
       4.2.3    France                                             18
       4.2.4    Germany                                            18
       4.2.5    Italy                                              18
       4.2.6    Romania                                            19
       4.2.7    Spain                                              19
       4.2.8    Sweden                                             19
       4.2.9    Switzerland                                        20
       4.2.10 the United Kingdom                                   20
    4.3      Latin America                                         20
       4.3.1    Brazil                                             20
       4.3.2    Guatemala                                          21
       4.3.3    Guyana                                             21
       4.3.4    Mexico                                             21
    4.4      North America & the Caribbean                         22
       4.4.1    Canada                                             22
    4.5      Oceana                                                22
       4.5.1    Australia                                          22
    4.6      the Middle East                                       22
       4.6.1    Saudi Arabia                                       22                             ©2011 ICON Group Ltd.
                                                          Contents        vi

    5.1   Disclaimers & Safe Harbor                                  23
    5.2   ICON Group Ltd. User Agreement Provisions                  24                               ©2011 ICON Group Ltd.
                                                Parts of Nuclear Reactors in the United States    7

On the demand side, exporters and strategic planners focusing on parts of nuclear reactors in the
United States face a number of questions. Which countries are supplying parts of nuclear
reactors to the United States? How important is the United States compared to others in terms of
the entire global and regional market? How much do the imports of parts of nuclear reactors vary
from one country of origin to another in the United States? On the supply side, the United States
also exports parts of nuclear reactors. Which countries receive the most exports from the United
States? How are these exports concentrated across buyers? What is the value of these exports
and which countries are the largest buyers?

This report was created for strategic planners, international marketing executives and
import/export managers who are concerned with the market for parts of nuclear reactors in the
United States. With the globalization of this market, managers can no longer be contented with a
local view. Nor can managers be contented with out-of-date statistics which appear several years
after the fact. I have developed a methodology, based on macroeconomic and trade models, to
estimate the market for parts of nuclear reactors for those countries serving the United States via
exports, or supplying from the United States via imports. It does so for the current year based on
a variety of key historical indicators and econometric models.

In what follows, Chapter 2 begins by summarizing where the United States fits into the world
market for imported and exported parts of nuclear reactors. The total level of imports and exports
on a worldwide basis, and those for the United States in particular, is estimated using a model
which aggregates across over 150 key country markets and projects these to the current year.
From there, each country represents a percent of the world market. This market is served from a
number of competitive countries of origin. Based on both demand- and supply-side dynamics,
market shares by country of origin are then calculated across each country market destination.
These shares lead to a volume of import and export values for each country and are aggregated to
regional and world totals. In doing so, we are able to obtain maximum likelihood estimates of
both the value of each market and the share that the United States is likely to receive this year.
From these figures, rankings are calculated to allow managers to prioritize the United States
compared to other major country markets. In this way, all the figures provided in this report are
forecasts that can be combined with internal information sources for strategic planning purposes.

After the worldwide summary in Chapter 2 of both imports and exports of parts of nuclear
reactors, Chapter 3 goes into detail on imports, but for each major country of origin serving the
United States. A “major” market is defined as a country where the United States represents a
substantially large share of either imports or exports. For each major country exporting to the
United States, one can thus observe how important the United States is to that exporting country
compared to other countries of the world. Chapter 4 does the same, but for exports of parts of
nuclear reactors originating from the United States, for each major country of destination. In
doing so, one can discover the share that the United States has in each major market; this share
value is often used as a measure of competitiveness for the United States. In all cases, the total                                                        ©2011 ICON Group Ltd.
                                                 Parts of Nuclear Reactors in the United States     8

dollar volume and percentage share values by major trading partner are provided. Combined,
Chapters 3 and 4 present a the total picture for imports and exports of parts of nuclear reactors to
and from the United States to and from all other major countries in the world. "Parts of Nuclear
Reactors" as a category is defined in this report following the definition given by the United
Nations Statistics Division Classification Registry using the Standard International Trade
Classification, Revision 3 (SITC, Rev. 3). The SITC code that defined "parts of nuclear reactors"
is 71878 . For more information on this definition, please refer to the following web site: .

This report is updated on an annual basis. To ensure that you have the most current version,
please check the web site of ICON Group at

Important Caveat. The figures should be seen as market estimates, as opposed to historical
records, as these are forecasted for the current year of trade. More importantly, in light of the fact
that unforeseeable factors might interrupt markets in achieving their reported levels, the figures
should be seen as estimates of potential. For example, "mad cow" disease, foot-and-mouth
disease, trade embargoes, military conflicts, acts of terrorism and other events will certainly
affect the actual trade flows recorded for a variety of industry or product categories. In such
cases, the difference between the numbers given in this report and the numbers actually observed
might be interpreted as the "net loss" or "net gain" due to these exogenous events affecting
regular trade flows that would have occurred had these events not have taken place.                                                         ©2011 ICON Group Ltd.
                                                   Parts of Nuclear Reactors in the United States        9

              Imported Parts of Nuclear Reactors in the United States, 2011
                              (Structure of Foreign Import Competition)

Country of Origin             Rank         Value (000 US$)               % Share        Cumulative %
Italy                             1                  108,606                 35.97                   35.97
Japan                             2                   84,081                 27.85                   63.81
France                            3                   67,584                 22.38                   86.19
Sweden                            4                   14,438                  4.78                   90.98
Canada                            5                    9,190                  3.04                   94.02
Belgium                           6                    6,913                  2.29                   96.31
Spain                             7                    6,479                  2.15                   98.45
Germany                           8                    3,082                  1.02                   99.47
Czech Republic                    9                    1,534                  0.51                   99.98
Denmark                          10                       53                  0.02                  100.00
Total                                                301,960                100.00                  100.00
    Source: Philip M. PARKER, Professor, INSEAD, copyright 2011,                                                           ©2011 ICON Group Ltd.
                                                   Parts of Nuclear Reactors in the United States       10

             Parts of Nuclear Reactors Exports from the United States, 2011
Country of Destination        Rank         Value (000 US$)               % Share        Cumulative %
Sweden                            1                   30,642                 29.05                   29.05
Japan                             2                   25,076                 23.77                   52.82
Germany                           3                    9,761                  9.25                   62.08
China                             4                    9,679                  9.18                   71.26
South Korea                       5                    7,524                  7.13                   78.39
Switzerland                       6                    6,557                  6.22                   84.61
Taiwan                            7                    4,190                  3.97                   88.58
France                            8                    3,629                  3.44                   92.02
Mexico                            9                    2,712                  2.5
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