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The 2011 Import and Export Market for Cereal Flours Excluding Wheat, Meslin, and Corn Flours in the United States

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On the demand side, exporters and strategic planners focusing on cereal flours excluding wheat, meslin, and corn flours in the United States face a number of questions. Which countries are supplying cereal flours excluding wheat, meslin, and corn flours to the United States? How important is the United States compared to others in terms of the entire global and regional market? How much do the imports of cereal flours excluding wheat, meslin, and corn flours vary from one country of origin to another in the United States? On the supply side, the United States also exports cereal flours excluding wheat, meslin, and corn flours. Which countries receive the most exports from the United States? How are these exports concentrated across buyers? What is the value of these exports and which countries are the largest buyers? This report was created for strategic planners, international marketing executives and import/export managers who are concerned with the market for cereal flours excluding wheat, meslin, and corn flours in the United States. With the globalization of this market, managers can no longer be contented with a local view. Nor can managers be contented with out-of-date statistics which appear several years after the fact. I have developed a methodology, based on macroeconomic and trade models, to estimate the market for cereal flours excluding wheat, meslin, and corn flours for those countries serving the United States via exports, or supplying from the United States via imports. It does so for the current year based on a variety of key historical indicators and econometric models. In what follows, Chapter 2 begins by summarizing where the United States fits into the world market for imported and exported cereal flours excluding wheat, meslin, and corn flours. The total level of imports and exports on a worldwide basis, and those for the United States in particular, is estimated using a model which aggregates across over 150 key country mark

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									 The 2011 Import and Export
   Market for Cereal Flours
 Excluding Wheat, Meslin, and
   Corn Flours in the United
            States

                                         By
                         Professor Philip M. Parker, Ph. D.
                      Chaired Professor of Management Science
                    INSEAD (Singapore & Fontainebleau, France)




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                                About the Author
Dr. Philip M. Parker is the Eli Lilly Chaired Professor of Innovation, Business and Society at
INSEAD where he has taught courses on multivariate statistics and global competitive strategy
since 1988. He has also taught courses at MIT, Stanford University, Harvard University, UCLA,
UCSD, and the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. He is the author of six books
on the economic convergence of nations. These books introduce the notion of “physioeconomics”
which foresees a lack of global convergence in economic behaviors due to physiological and
physiographic forces. His latest book is "Physioeconomics: The Basis for Long-Run Economic
Growth" (MIT Press 2000). He has also published numerous articles in academic journals,
including The Rand Journal of Economics, Marketing Science, the Journal of International
Business Studies, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, International Journal of
Forecasting, the European Management Journal, the European Journal of Operational
Research, Journal of Marketing, International Journal of Research in Marketing, and Journal of
Marketing Research. He is also on the editorial boards of several academic journals.

Dr. Parker received his Ph.D. in Business Economics from the Wharton School of the University
of Pennsylvania and has Masters degrees in Finance and Banking (University of Aix-Marseille)
and Managerial Economics (Wharton). His undergraduate degrees are in mathematics, biology
and economics (minor in aeronautical engineering). He has consulted and/or taught courses in
Africa, the Middle East, Asia, Latin America, North America and Europe.



                                 About this Series
This series was created for international firms who rely on foreign export markets for a
substantial portion of their business or who might be threatened by foreign trade competition.
The estimates given in this report were created using a methodology developed by and under the
direct supervision of Professor Philip M. Parker, the Eli Lilly Chaired Professor of Innovation,
Business and Society, at INSEAD. The methodology, relying on historical figures of economic
growth and trade flows, estimates the market shares of some 150 countries for over 500 industrial
or product categories. The figures should be seen as market estimates, as opposed to historical
records, as these are projected for the current year of trade.



                               Acknowledgements
Some of the methodologies and research approaches used in this report have benefited from the
R&D Committee at INSEAD, whose research support is gratefully acknowledged. Additional
editorial assistance from Tiffany LaRochelle, ICON Group International, Inc., is also
acknowledged.



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                                                            Contents        v


Table of Contents
1     INTRODUCTION AND METHODOLOGY                                      7
2     THE UNITED STATES AND THE WORLD MARKET                            9
    2.1        Imports in the United States in 2011                     9
    2.2        Exports from the United States in 2011                  10
3     IMPORTS IN THE UNITED STATES                                     11
    3.1        Africa                                                  11
       3.1.1     Djibouti                                              11
       3.1.2     Ethiopia                                              11
       3.1.3     Kenya                                                 11
    3.2        Asia                                                    12
       3.2.1     China                                                 12
       3.2.2     India                                                 12
       3.2.3     Japan                                                 13
       3.2.4     Philippines                                           13
       3.2.5     South Korea                                           13
       3.2.6     Thailand                                              14
       3.2.7     Vietnam                                               14
    3.3        Europe                                                  15
       3.3.1     Belgium                                               15
       3.3.2     Italy                                                 16
       3.3.3     Sweden                                                16
    3.4        Latin America                                           17
       3.4.1     Brazil                                                17
       3.4.2     Colombia                                              17
       3.4.3     El Salvador                                           17
       3.4.4     Mexico                                                17
       3.4.5     Peru                                                  18
    3.5        North America & the Caribbean                           18
       3.5.1     Canada                                                18
       3.5.2     Dominican Republic                                    18
4     EXPORTS FROM THE UNITED STATES                                   19
    4.1        Africa                                                  19
       4.1.1     Ethiopia                                              19
       4.1.2     Madagascar                                            19
       4.1.3     Malawi                                                19
       4.1.4     Uganda                                                20
    4.2        Asia                                                    20
       4.2.1     Indonesia                                             20
       4.2.2     Japan                                                 20
       4.2.3     Malaysia                                              21
       4.2.4     Singapore                                             21
    4.3        Europe                                                  22
       4.3.1     France                                                22
       4.3.2     Germany                                               23
    4.4        Latin America                                           23
       4.4.1     Colombia                                              23
       4.4.2     El Salvador                                           24
       4.4.3     Guatemala                                             24


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                                                           Contents        vi

       4.4.4    Honduras                                              25
       4.4.5    Mexico                                                25
       4.4.6    Panama                                                25
    4.5      North America & the Caribbean                            26
       4.5.1    Canada                                                26
       4.5.2    the Bahamas                                           26
    4.6      Oceana                                                   27
       4.6.1    Australia                                             27
       4.6.2    New Zealand                                           27
    4.7      the Middle East                                          28
       4.7.1    Israel                                                28
       4.7.2    Jordan                                                28
       4.7.3    Saudi Arabia                                          28
5     DISCLAIMERS, WARRANTEES, AND USER AGREEMENT PROVISIONS          29
    5.1    Disclaimers & Safe Harbor                                  29
    5.2    ICON Group Ltd. User Agreement Provisions                  30




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                   Cereal Flours Excluding Wheat, Meslin, and Corn Flours in the United States     7


1      INTRODUCTION AND METHODOLOGY
On the demand side, exporters and strategic planners focusing on cereal flours excluding wheat,
meslin, and corn flours in the United States face a number of questions. Which countries are
supplying cereal flours excluding wheat, meslin, and corn flours to the United States? How
important is the United States compared to others in terms of the entire global and regional
market? How much do the imports of cereal flours excluding wheat, meslin, and corn flours vary
from one country of origin to another in the United States? On the supply side, the United States
also exports cereal flours excluding wheat, meslin, and corn flours. Which countries receive the
most exports from the United States? How are these exports concentrated across buyers? What
is the value of these exports and which countries are the largest buyers?

This report was created for strategic planners, international marketing executives and
import/export managers who are concerned with the market for cereal flours excluding wheat,
meslin, and corn flours in the United States. With the globalization of this market, managers can
no longer be contented with a local view. Nor can managers be contented with out-of-date
statistics which appear several years after the fact. I have developed a methodology, based on
macroeconomic and trade models, to estimate the market for cereal flours excluding wheat,
meslin, and corn flours for those countries serving the United States via exports, or supplying
from the United States via imports. It does so for the current year based on a variety of key
historical indicators and econometric models.

In what follows, Chapter 2 begins by summarizing where the United States fits into the world
market for imported and exported cereal flours excluding wheat, meslin, and corn flours. The
total level of imports and exports on a worldwide basis, and those for the United States in
particular, is estimated using a model which aggregates across over 150 key country markets and
projects these to the current year. From there, each country represents a percent of the world
market. This market is served from a number of competitive countries of origin. Based on both
demand- and supply-side dynamics, market shares by country of origin are then calculated across
each country market destination. These shares lead to a volume of import and export values for
each country and are aggregated to regional and world totals. In doing so, we are able to obtain
maximum likelihood estimates of both the value of each market and the share that the United
States is likely to receive this year. From these figures, rankings are calculated to allow managers
to prioritize the United States compared to other major country markets. In this way, all the
figures provided in this report are forecasts that can be combined with internal information
sources for strategic planning purposes.

After the worldwide summary in Chapter 2 of both imports and exports of cereal flours excluding
wheat, meslin, and corn flours, Chapter 3 goes into detail on imports, but for each major country
of origin serving the United States. A “major” market is defined as a country where the United
States represents a substantially large share of either imports or exports. For each major country
exporting to the United States, one can thus observe how important the United States is to that
exporting country compared to other countries of the world. Chapter 4 does the same, but for


www.icongrouponline.com                                                         ©2011 ICON Group Ltd.
                    Cereal Flours Excluding Wheat, Meslin, and Corn Flours in the United States     8

exports of cereal flours excluding wheat, meslin, and corn flours originating from the United
States, for each major country of destination. In doing so, one can discover the share that the
United States has in each major market; this share value is often used as a measure of
competitiveness for the United States. In all cases, the total dollar volume and percentage share
values by major trading partner are provided. Combined, Chapters 3 and 4 present a the total
picture for imports and exports of cereal flours excluding wheat, meslin, and corn flours to and
from the United States to and from all other major countries in the world. "Cereal Flours
Excluding Wheat, Meslin, and Corn Flours" as a category is defined in this report following the
definition given by the United Nations Statistics Division Classification Registry using the
Standard International Trade Classification, Revision 3 (SITC, Rev. 3). The SITC code that
defined "cereal flours excluding wheat, meslin, and corn flours" is 04719 . For more information
on this definition, please refer to the following web site:
http://unstats.un.org/unsd/cr/registry/regcs.asp?Cl=14&Lg=1&Co=047 .

This report is updated on an annual basis. To ensure that you have the most current version,
please check the web site of ICON Group at www.icongrouponline.com.

Important Caveat. The figures should be seen as market estimates, as opposed to historical
records, as these are forecasted for the current year of trade. More importantly, in light of the fact
that unforeseeable factors might interrupt markets in achieving their reported levels, the figures
should be seen as estimates of potential. For example, "mad cow" disease, foot-and-mouth
disease, trade embargoes, military conflicts, acts of terrorism and other events will certainly
affect the actual trade flows recorded for a variety of industry or product categories. In such
cases, the difference between the numbers given in this report and the numbers actually observed
might be interpreted as the "net loss" or "net gain" due to these exogenous events affecting
regular trade flows that would have occurred had these events not have taken place.




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                     Cereal Flours Excluding Wheat, Meslin, and Corn Flours in the United States        9


2       THE UNITED STATES AND THE WORLD MARKET
2.1         IMPORTS IN THE UNITED STATES IN 2011
    Imported Cereal Flours Excluding Wheat, Meslin, and Corn Flours in the United
                                      States, 2011
                              (Structure of Foreign Import Competition)

Country of Origin             Rank          Value (000 US$)              % Share       Cumulative %
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Canada                            1                    12,823               49.82                   49.82
Thailand                          2                     6,984               27.13                   76.95
India                             3                     1,895                7.36                   84.31
Belgium                           4                     1,586                6.16                   90.47
Mexico                            5                       375                1.46                   91.93
South Korea                       6                       361                1.40                   93.33
China                             7                       335                1.30                   94.63
Dominican Republic                8                       269                1.05                   95.68
Japan                             9                       185                0.72                   96.39
Kenya                            10                       181                0.70                   97.10
Ethiopia                         11                       139                0.54                   97.64
Djibouti                         12                       110                0.43                   98.07
Brazil                           13                        98                0.38                   98.45
Peru                             14                        83                0.32                   98.77
Philippines                      15                        82                0.32                   99.09
Italy                            16                        82                0.32                   99.41
Sweden                           17                        74                0.29                   99.69
Vietnam                          18                        55          
								
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