The 2011 Import and Export Market for Acyclic Hydrocarbons in China by ICONGroup


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									   The 2011 Import and Export
       Market for Acyclic
     Hydrocarbons in China

                         Professor Philip M. Parker, Ph. D.
                      Chaired Professor of Management Science
                    INSEAD (Singapore & Fontainebleau, France)                                      ©2011 ICON Group Ltd.

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                                About the Author
Dr. Philip M. Parker is the Eli Lilly Chaired Professor of Innovation, Business and Society at
INSEAD where he has taught courses on multivariate statistics and global competitive strategy
since 1988. He has also taught courses at MIT, Stanford University, Harvard University, UCLA,
UCSD, and the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. He is the author of six books
on the economic convergence of nations. These books introduce the notion of “physioeconomics”
which foresees a lack of global convergence in economic behaviors due to physiological and
physiographic forces. His latest book is "Physioeconomics: The Basis for Long-Run Economic
Growth" (MIT Press 2000). He has also published numerous articles in academic journals,
including The Rand Journal of Economics, Marketing Science, the Journal of International
Business Studies, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, International Journal of
Forecasting, the European Management Journal, the European Journal of Operational
Research, Journal of Marketing, International Journal of Research in Marketing, and Journal of
Marketing Research. He is also on the editorial boards of several academic journals.

Dr. Parker received his Ph.D. in Business Economics from the Wharton School of the University
of Pennsylvania and has Masters degrees in Finance and Banking (University of Aix-Marseille)
and Managerial Economics (Wharton). His undergraduate degrees are in mathematics, biology
and economics (minor in aeronautical engineering). He has consulted and/or taught courses in
Africa, the Middle East, Asia, Latin America, North America and Europe.

                                 About this Series
This series was created for international firms who rely on foreign export markets for a
substantial portion of their business or who might be threatened by foreign trade competition.
The estimates given in this report were created using a methodology developed by and under the
direct supervision of Professor Philip M. Parker, the Eli Lilly Chaired Professor of Innovation,
Business and Society, at INSEAD. The methodology, relying on historical figures of economic
growth and trade flows, estimates the market shares of some 150 countries for over 500 industrial
or product categories. The figures should be seen as market estimates, as opposed to historical
records, as these are projected for the current year of trade.

Some of the methodologies and research approaches used in this report have benefited from the
R&D Committee at INSEAD, whose research support is gratefully acknowledged. Additional
editorial assistance from Tiffany LaRochelle, ICON Group International, Inc., is also
acknowledged.                                                    ©2011 ICON Group Ltd.

                           About ICON Group Ltd.
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                                                 Contents        v

Table of Contents
1     INTRODUCTION AND METHODOLOGY                           7
2     CHINA AND THE WORLD MARKET                             9
    2.1     Imports in China in 2011                         9
    2.2     Exports from China in 2011                      10
3     IMPORTS IN CHINA                                      11
    3.1      Africa                                         11
       3.1.1    South Africa                                11
    3.2      Asia                                           12
       3.2.1    China                                       12
       3.2.2    Hong Kong                                   13
       3.2.3    India                                       13
       3.2.4    Indonesia                                   13
       3.2.5    Japan                                       14
       3.2.6    Malaysia                                    15
       3.2.7    Singapore                                   15
       3.2.8    South Korea                                 16
       3.2.9    Taiwan                                      17
       3.2.10 Thailand                                      17
    3.3      Europe                                         18
       3.3.1    Belgium                                     18
       3.3.2    Czech Republic                              19
       3.3.3    France                                      20
       3.3.4    Germany                                     21
       3.3.5    Spain                                       22
       3.3.6    Switzerland                                 23
       3.3.7    the Netherlands                             24
       3.3.8    the United Kingdom                          25
    3.4      Latin America                                  26
       3.4.1    Brazil                                      26
    3.5      North America & the Caribbean                  27
       3.5.1    the United States                           27
    3.6      Oceana                                         28
       3.6.1    Australia                                   28
    3.7      the Middle East                                28
       3.7.1    Iran                                        28
       3.7.2    Qatar                                       29
4     EXPORTS FROM CHINA                                    30
    4.1      Africa                                         30
       4.1.1   Sudan                                        30
    4.2      Asia                                           31
       4.2.1   China                                        31
       4.2.2   Hong Kong                                    32
       4.2.3   India                                        33
       4.2.4   Indonesia                                    34
       4.2.5   Japan                                        35
       4.2.6   Malaysia                                     36
       4.2.7   Mongolia                                     36
       4.2.8   Philippines                                  37                      ©2011 ICON Group Ltd.
                                                           Contents        vi

       4.2.9    Singapore                                             38
       4.2.10 South Korea                                             39
       4.2.11 Taiwan                                                  40
       4.2.12 Thailand                                                41
    4.3      Europe                                                   42
       4.3.1    Denmark                                               42
       4.3.2    Germany                                               43
       4.3.3    Italy                                                 44
       4.3.4    Malta                                                 44
       4.3.5    Slovakia                                              45
       4.3.6    Spain                                                 46
       4.3.7    the Netherlands                                       47
       4.3.8    the United Kingdom                                    48
    4.4      Latin America                                            49
       4.4.1    Mexico                                                49
    4.5      North America & the Caribbean                            50
       4.5.1    Canada                                                50
       4.5.2    the United States                                     51
    4.6      Oceana                                                   52
       4.6.1    Australia                                             52
       4.6.2    New Zealand                                           52
    4.7      the Middle East                                          53
       4.7.1    Israel                                                53
       4.7.2    Pakistan                                              53
       4.7.3    Qatar                                                 54
       4.7.4    Saudi Arabia                                          55
       4.7.5    Turkey                                                56
    5.1    Disclaimers & Safe Harbor                                  57
    5.2    ICON Group Ltd. User Agreement Provisions                  58                                ©2011 ICON Group Ltd.
                                                             Acyclic Hydrocarbons in China       7

On the demand side, exporters and strategic planners focusing on acyclic hydrocarbons in China
face a number of questions. Which countries are supplying acyclic hydrocarbons to China? How
important is China compared to others in terms of the entire global and regional market? How
much do the imports of acyclic hydrocarbons vary from one country of origin to another in
China? On the supply side, China also exports acyclic hydrocarbons. Which countries receive
the most exports from China? How are these exports concentrated across buyers? What is the
value of these exports and which countries are the largest buyers?

This report was created for strategic planners, international marketing executives and
import/export managers who are concerned with the market for acyclic hydrocarbons in China.
With the globalization of this market, managers can no longer be contented with a local view.
Nor can managers be contented with out-of-date statistics which appear several years after the
fact. I have developed a methodology, based on macroeconomic and trade models, to estimate
the market for acyclic hydrocarbons for those countries serving China via exports, or supplying
from China via imports. It does so for the current year based on a variety of key historical
indicators and econometric models.

In what follows, Chapter 2 begins by summarizing where China fits into the world market for
imported and exported acyclic hydrocarbons. The total level of imports and exports on a
worldwide basis, and those for China in particular, is estimated using a model which aggregates
across over 150 key country markets and projects these to the current year. From there, each
country represents a percent of the world market. This market is served from a number of
competitive countries of origin. Based on both demand- and supply-side dynamics, market shares
by country of origin are then calculated across each country market destination. These shares
lead to a volume of import and export values for each country and are aggregated to regional and
world totals. In doing so, we are able to obtain maximum likelihood estimates of both the value
of each market and the share that China is likely to receive this year. From these figures,
rankings are calculated to allow managers to prioritize China compared to other major country
markets. In this way, all the figures provided in this report are forecasts that can be combined
with internal information sources for strategic planning purposes.

After the worldwide summary in Chapter 2 of both imports and exports of acyclic hydrocarbons,
Chapter 3 goes into detail on imports, but for each major country of origin serving China. A
“major” market is defined as a country where China represents a substantially large share of
either imports or exports. For each major country exporting to China, one can thus observe how
important China is to that exporting country compared to other countries of the world. Chapter 4
does the same, but for exports of acyclic hydrocarbons originating from China, for each major
country of destination. In doing so, one can discover the share that China has in each major
market; this share value is often used as a measure of competitiveness for China. In all cases, the
total dollar volume and percentage share values by major trading partner are provided.
Combined, Chapters 3 and 4 present a the total picture for imports and exports of acyclic                                                     ©2011 ICON Group Ltd.
                                                              Acyclic Hydrocarbons in China         8

hydrocarbons to and from China to and from all other major countries in the world. "Acyclic
Hydrocarbons" as a category is defined in this report following the definition given by the United
Nations Statistics Division Classification Registry using the Standard International Trade
Classification, Revision 3 (SITC, Rev. 3). The SITC code that defined "acyclic hydrocarbons" is
5111 . For more information on this definition, please refer to the following web site: .

This report is updated on an annual basis. To ensure that you have the most current version,
please check the web site of ICON Group at

Important Caveat. The figures should be seen as market estimates, as opposed to historical
records, as these are forecasted for the current year of trade. More importantly, in light of the fact
that unforeseeable factors might interrupt markets in achieving their reported levels, the figures
should be seen as estimates of potential. For example, "mad cow" disease, foot-and-mouth
disease, trade embargoes, military conflicts, acts of terrorism and other events will certainly
affect the actual trade flows recorded for a variety of industry or product categories. In such
cases, the difference between the numbers given in this report and the numbers actually observed
might be interpreted as the "net loss" or "net gain" due to these exogenous events affecting
regular trade flows that would have occurred had these events not have taken place.                                                       ©2011 ICON Group Ltd.
                                                                 Acyclic Hydrocarbons in China          9

2.1         IMPORTS IN CHINA IN 2011
                       Imported Acyclic Hydrocarbons in China, 2011
                              (Structure of Foreign Import Competition)

Country of Origin             Rank         Value (000 US$)              % Share        Cumulative %
South Korea                       1                  445,180                44.84                 44.84
Japan                             2                  227,901                22.95                 67.79
the United States                 3                   98,941                 9.97                 77.76
India                             4                   53,919                 5.43                 83.19
Taiwan                            5                   38,473                 3.87                 87.06
Thailand                          6                   26,330                 2.65                 89.71
Spain                             7                   24,964                 2.51                 92.23
Brazil                            8                   22,276                 2.24                 94.47
Germany                           9                   12,588                 1.27                 95.74
Indonesia                        10                   10,594                 1.07                 96.81
Iran                             11                    9,007                 0.91                 97.71
Malaysia                         12                    5,173                 0.52                 98.24
South Africa                     13                    4,334                 0.44                 98.67
France                           14                    3,595                 0.36                 99.03
the United Kingdom               15                    2,772                 0.28                 99.31
Qatar                            16                    1,764                 0.18                 99.49
Belgium                          17                    1,721                 0.17                 99.66
Singapore                        18                    1,709                 0.17                 99.84
the Netherlands                  19                      723                 0.07                 99.91
China                            20                      663                 0.07                 99.98
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