The 2011 San Marino Economic and Product Market Databook

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The 2011 San Marino Economic and Product Market Databook Powered By Docstoc
					The 2011 San Marino Economic and
         Product Market Databook




                                         by
                              Philip M. Parker, Ph.D.
                      Chaired Professor of Management Science
                    INSEAD (Singapore and Fontainebleau, France)




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                                        About the Author
Dr. Philip M. Parker is the Eli Lilly Chaired Professor of Innovation, Business and Society at INSEAD where he has
taught courses on global competitive strategy since 1988. He has also taught courses at MIT, Stanford University,
Harvard University, UCLA, UCSD, and the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. Professor Parker is
the author of six books on the economic convergence of nations. These books introduce the notion of
“physioeconomics” which foresees a lack of global convergence in economic behaviors due to physiological and
physiographic forces. His latest book is "Physioeconomics: The Basis for Long-Run Economic Growth" (MIT Press
2000). He has also published numerous articles in academic journals, including, the Rand Journal of Economics,
Marketing Science, the Journal of International Business Studies, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, the
International Journal of Forecasting, the European Management Journal, the European Journal of Operational
Research, the Journal of Marketing, the International Journal of Research in Marketing, and the Journal of
Marketing Research. He is also on the editorial boards of several academic journals.

Dr. Parker received his Ph.D. in Business Economics from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania
and has Masters degrees in Finance and Banking (University of Aix-Marseille) and Managerial Economics
(Wharton). His undergraduate degrees are in mathematics, biology and economics (minor in aeronautical
engineering). He has consulted and/or taught courses in Africa, the Middle East, Asia, Latin America, North America
and Europe.


                                         About this Series
This series was created for international firms who rely on foreign markets for a substantial portion of their business
or who might be threatened by international competition. The estimates given in this report were created using a
methodology developed by and implemented under the direct supervision of Professor Philip M. Parker, the Eli Lilly
Chaired Professor of Innovation, Business and Society, at INSEAD. The methodology relies on historical figures
across countries. Reported figures should be seen as estimates of past and future levels of latent demand.


                                      Acknowledgements
Some of the methodologies and research approaches used in this report have benefited from the R&D Committee at
INSEAD, whose research support is gratefully acknowledged.




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Table of Contents
1      INTRODUCTION & METHODOLOGY                                                                     30
     1.1 Overview & Methodology                                                                       30
     1.2 Market Potential Estimation Methodology                                                      30
        1.2.1    Overview                                                                             30
        1.2.2    What is Latent Demand and the P.I.E.?                                                30
        1.2.3    The Methodology                                                                      31
           1.2.3.1    Step 1. Product Definition and Data Collection                                  33
           1.2.3.2    Step 2. Filtering and Smoothing                                                 33
           1.2.3.3    Step 3. Filling in Missing Values                                               34
           1.2.3.4    Step 4. Varying Parameter, Non-linear Estimation                                34
           1.2.3.5    Step 5. Fixed-Parameter Linear Estimation                                       34
           1.2.3.6    Step 6. Aggregation and Benchmarking                                            35
2      SUMMARY RANKINGS                                                                               36
3      AC DRIVES                                                                                      60
4      ADHESIVES AND SEALANTS                                                                         60
5      ADULT ENTERTAINMENT                                                                            61
6      ADVERTISING AGENCIES                                                                           61
7      AEROSPACE AND DEFENSE EQUIPMENT                                                                62
8      AFTERMARKET PASSENGER CAR TIRES                                                                62
9      AFTER-SUN MOISTURIZERS AND TAN-EXTENDER CREAMS                                                 63
10     AGRICULTURAL CHEMICALS                                                                         63
11     AIR CONDITIONING AND REFRIGERATION EQUIPMENT                                                   64
12     ALBUMS AND EPS                                                                                 64
13     ALCOHOLIC COOLER BEVERAGES                                                                     65
14     ALES AND STOUTS                                                                                65
15     ALIMENTARY AND METABOLISM PHARMACEUTICALS                                                      66
16     ALUMINA REFINING                                                                               66
17     ALUMINUM DIE-CASTING FOUNDRIES                                                                 67
18     AMBIENT CANNED SPONGE PUDDING                                                                  67
19     AMMONIA-FREE SEMI-PERMANENT HAIR DYES                                                          68
20     AMUSEMENT AND RECREATION SERVICES                                                              68
21     ANALGESICS                                                                                     69
22     ANALOG CAMCORDERS                                                                              69
23     ANTHRACITE MINING                                                                              70
24     ANTIDEPRESSANT PHARMACEUTICALS                                                                 70
25     ANTIFREEZE                                                                                     71
26     ANTIPERSPIRANTS AND DEODORANTS                                                                 71
27     ANTI-REFLECTIVE GLASS                                                                          72
28     ANTISEPTIC FIRST AID CREAMS, SPRAYS, AND WIPES                                                 72



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29   APPAREL AND ACCESSORIES                                                         73
30   APPETIZERS AND DIPS                                                             73
31   APPLES                                                                          74
32   APPLICATIONS SOFTWARE                                                           74
33   APPLICATION-SPECIFIC INTEGRATED CIRCUITS (ASICS)                                75
34   APPLICATOR TAMPONS                                                              75
35   ARCHITECTURAL SERVICES                                                          76
36   ART DEALERS                                                                     76
37   ASIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN BREADS                                                 77
38   ATHLETIC FOOTWEAR                                                               77
39   AUDIO COMPONENTS                                                                78
40   AUTO AND HOME SUPPLY STORES                                                     78
41   AVIATION SERVICES                                                               79
42   BABY BOTTLES                                                                    79
43   BACON-FLAVORED POTATO CHIPS                                                     80
44   BAGELS                                                                          80
45   BAGGED CHOCOLATE CANDY                                                          81
46   BAKED GOODS                                                                     81
47   BAKERIES                                                                        82
48   BAKERY PRODUCTS                                                                 82
49   BAKING SODA TOOTHPASTE                                                          83
50   BALLPOINT PENS                                                                  83
51   BANANAS                                                                         84
52   BAPS ROLLS                                                                      84
53   BAR SOAP                                                                        85
54   BASE CHEMICALS                                                                  85
55   BASMATI LONG GRAIN RICE                                                         86
56   BATH ENHANCERS                                                                  86
57   BATTERY EGGS                                                                    87
58   BEAUTY AND BARBER SHOPS                                                         87
59   BEEF-FLAVORED POTATO CHIPS                                                      88
60   BEER                                                                            88
61   BELUGA CAVIAR                                                                   89
62   BEVERAGE MAKERS                                                                 89
63   BICYCLES AND BICYCLE ACCESSORIES                                                90
64   BIOTECHNOLOGY                                                                   90
65   BITUMINOUS COAL                                                                 91



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66   BLACK TEA IN BAGS                                                   91
67   BLANCMANGE AND PUDDING MIX                                          92
68   BLANK AUDIO CASSETTES                                               92
69   BLENDED WHISKEY                                                     93
70   BOARD GAMES AND PUZZLES                                             93
71   BOAT BUILDING                                                       94
72   BODY CARE PRODUCTS                                                  94
73   BOILERS                                                             95
74   BOOK PUBLISHING                                                     95
75   BOTTLED WATER                                                       96
76   BOTTLES OF LAGER BEER                                               96
77   BOUILLON CUBES                                                      97
78   BOUTIQUE HOTELS                                                     97
79   BOXED PEN AND PENCIL SETS                                           98
80   BOYS' SCHOOL UNIFORMS                                               98
81   BRAS AND ALLIED GARMENTS                                            99
82   BREAD                                                               99
83   BREAKFAST CEREALS                                                  100
84   BREATH FRESHENING SPRAYS                                           100
85   BREWERIES                                                          101
86   BRIEFCASES                                                         101
87   BROADBAND INTERNET ACCESS                                          102
88   BROADWOVEN FABRIC FINISHING MILLS                                  102
89   BROOM, BRUSH, AND MOP MANUFACTURING                                103
90   BROWN AND WHOLEMEAL BREAD                                          103
91   BUBBLE GUM                                                         104
92   BUDWEISER LAGER BEER                                               104
93   BUILDING INSPECTION SERVICES                                       105
94   BUILT-IN ELECTRIC OVENS                                            105
95   BULK DISPOSABLE DIAPERS                                            106
96   BUSES AND COACHES                                                  106
97   BUSINESS SUPPORT SERVICES                                          107
98   BUTCHER SHOPS                                                      107
99   BUTTER                                                             108
100 CABLE AND DSL ROUTERS                                               108
101 CAD/CAM/CAE SOFTWARE                                                109
102 CAFES AND RESTAURANTS                                               109



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103 CAJUN AND CARIBBEAN FOOD                                                  110
104 CAKES AND PASTRIES                                                        110
105 CALCIUM SUPPLEMENTS                                                       111
106 CAMCORDERS                                                                111
107 CAMERA AND PHOTOGRAPHIC SUPPLIES STORES                                   112
108 CAMPGROUNDS AND RECREATIONAL VEHICLE PARKS                                112
109 CANAPÉ APPETIZERS                                                         113
110 CANDLES                                                                   113
111 CANDY                                                                     114
112 CANNED BAKED BEANS                                                        114
113 CANS OF LAGER BEER                                                        115
114 CAR AUDIO SYSTEMS                                                         115
115 CASHEWS                                                                   116
116 CASINOS AND GAMBLING                                                      116
117 CAST IRON COOKWARE                                                        117
118 CASUAL COMBINATION RESTAURANT/BARS                                        117
119 CAT FOOD                                                                  118
120 CD PLAYERS                                                                118
121 CEILING LIGHT FIXTURES                                                    119
122 CELLULAR TELEPHONES                                                       119
123 CEMENT CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS                                             120
124 CEMETERIES AND CREMATORIES                                                120
125 CERAMIC HOUSEWARES                                                        121
126 CHALKBOARDS                                                               121
127 CHEESE MANUFACTURING                                                      122
128 CHEMICALS                                                                 122
129 CHERRY-FLAVORED BOTTLED WATER                                             123
130 CHEWING GUM                                                               123
131 CHICKEN PATTIES                                                           124
132 CHILDREN'S AND INFANTS' CLOTHING STORES                                   124
133 CHILLED PASTA                                                             125
134 CHINA AND PORCELAIN                                                       125
135 CHINESE SIDE DISHES                                                       126
136 CHIPS AND CRISPS                                                          126
137 CHLORINE BLEACH CLEANING PRODUCTS                                         127
138 CHOCOLATE COOKIE CANDY BARS                                               127
139 CHUTNEY                                                                   128



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140 CIGARETTE MANUFACTURING                                                 128
141 CIGARS AND CIGARILLOS                                                   129
142 CITRUS FRUIT                                                            129
143 CIVIL AEROSPACE EQUIPMENT                                               130
144 CLASSIC HANDBAGS                                                        130
145 CLAY BUILDING PRODUCTS                                                  131
146 CLIMBING ROPES                                                          131
147 CLOTHES DRYERS                                                          132
148 CLOTHING ACCESSORIES                                                    132
149 CMOS IMAGE SENSORS                                                      133
150 COATED OR LAMINATED PAPER MANUFACTURING                                 133
151 COD LIVER OIL DIETARY SUPPLEMENTS                                       134
152 COFFEE AND TEA MANUFACTURING                                            134
153 COIN-OPERATED LAUNDRIES AND DRY CLEANERS                                135
154 COLAS                                                                   135
155 COLLECTION AGENCIES                                                     136
156 COLOR COSMETICS                                                         136
157 COMBINATION VCR/DVD PLAYERS                                             137
158 COMMERCIAL BAKERIES                                                     137
159 COMMUNICATIONS SERVICES                                                 138
160 COMPACT FLUORESCENT LIGHT BULBS                                         138
161 COMPLETE DRY DOG FOOD                                                   139
162 COMPOUND COOKING OILS AND FATS                                          139
163 COMPUTER STORAGE DEVICE MANUFACTURING                                   140
164 CONCENTRATED LIQUID FABRIC SOFTENERS                                    140
165 CONCRETE PIPE MANUFACTURING                                             141
166 CONSOLE VIDEO GAMES                                                     141
167 CONSTRUCTION AND ENGINEERING SERVICES                                   142
168 CONSUMER BATTERIES                                                      142
169 CONTACT LENSES                                                          143
170 CONTINENTAL AND SPECIALTY PLANT BREAD                                   143
171 CONTINUOUS AIR FRESHENERS                                               144
172 CONTROL AND SUPPORT HOSIERY                                             144
173 CONVENIENCE STORES                                                      145
174 CONVENTIONAL MINERAL OIL                                                145
175 COOKED CHICKEN PIECES                                                   146
176 COOKIES AND CRACKERS                                                    146



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177 COOKING RANGES                                                                    147
178 COOLING FANS                                                                      147
179 COPPER ROLLING, DRAWING, AND EXTRUDING                                            148
180 CORDLESS COMPUTER MICE                                                
				
DOCUMENT INFO
Description: In performing various economic analyses for its clients, I have occasionally been asked to investigate the market potential for various products and services in San Marino. The purpose of the studies is to understand the density of demand within San Marino and the extent to which San Marino might be used as a point of distribution within Europe. From an economic perspective, however, San Marino does not represent a population within rigid geographical boundaries, rather, it represents an area of dominant influence over markets in adjacent areas. This influence varies from one industry to another, but also from one period of time to another. In what follows, I summarize the economic potential for San Marino over the next five years for hundreds of industries, categories and products. The goal of this report is to report my findings on the real economic potential, or what an economist calls the latent demand, represented by San Marino when defined as an area of dominant influence. The reader needs to realize that latent demand may or may not represent real sales. For many items, latent demand is clearly observable in sales, as in the case for food or housing items. Consider, however, the category "satellite launch vehicles". Clearly, there are no launch pads in San Marino used by the space industry to launch satellites. However, the core benefit of the vehicles (e.g. telecommunications, etc.) is "consumed" by the area served by San Marino. Without San Marino, in other words, the market for satellite launch vehicles would be lower for the population in San Marino, Europe, or the world in general. One needs to allocate, therefore, a portion of the worldwide economic demand for launch vehicles to both Europe and San Marino.
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