VIEWS: 1 PAGES: 598 CATEGORY: Market and Industry Reports POSTED ON: 4/11/2011
In performing various economic analyses for its clients, I have occasionally been asked to investigate the market potential for various products and services in Bulgaria. The purpose of the studies is to understand the density of demand within Bulgaria and the extent to which Bulgaria might be used as a point of distribution within Europe. From an economic perspective, however, Bulgaria does not represent a population within rigid geographical boundaries, rather, it represents an area of dominant influence over markets in adjacent areas. This influence varies from one industry to another, but also from one period of time to another. In what follows, I summarize the economic potential for Bulgaria over the next five years for hundreds of industries, categories and products. The goal of this report is to report my findings on the real economic potential, or what an economist calls the latent demand, represented by Bulgaria when defined as an area of dominant influence. The reader needs to realize that latent demand may or may not represent real sales. For many items, latent demand is clearly observable in sales, as in the case for food or housing items. Consider, however, the category "satellite launch vehicles". Clearly, there are no launch pads in Bulgaria used by the space industry to launch satellites. However, the core benefit of the vehicles (e.g. telecommunications, etc.) is "consumed" by the area served by Bulgaria. Without Bulgaria, in other words, the market for satellite launch vehicles would be lower for the population in Bulgaria, Europe, or the world in general. One needs to allocate, therefore, a portion of the worldwide economic demand for launch vehicles to both Europe and Bulgaria.
The 2011 Bulgaria Economic and Product Market Databook by Philip M. Parker, Ph.D. Chaired Professor of Management Science INSEAD (Singapore and Fontainebleau, France) www.icongrouponline.com ©2011 ICON Group International, Inc. ii COPYRIGHT NOTICE 00052991-7G All of ICON Group International, Inc. publications are copyrighted. Copying our publications in whole or in part, for whatever reason, is a violation of copyrights laws and can lead to penalties and fines. Should you want to copy tables, graphs or other materials from our publications, please contact us to request permission. ICON Group International, Inc. often grants permission for very limited reproduction of our publications for internal use, press releases, and academic research. Such reproduction requires, however, confirmed permission from ICON Group International, Inc. Please read the full copyright notice, disclaimer, and user agreement provisions at the end of this report. IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER Neither ICON Group International, Inc. nor its employees can be held accountable for the use and subsequent actions of the user of the information provided in this publication. Great efforts have been made to ensure the accuracy of the data, but we can not guarantee, given the volume of information, accuracy. Since the information given in this report is forward-looking, the reader should read the disclaimer statement and user agreement provisions at the end of this report. www.icongrouponline.com ©2011 ICON Group International, Inc. iii About the Author Dr. Philip M. Parker is the Eli Lilly Chaired Professor of Innovation, Business and Society at INSEAD where he has taught courses on global competitive strategy since 1988. He has also taught courses at MIT, Stanford University, Harvard University, UCLA, UCSD, and the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. Professor Parker is the author of six books on the economic convergence of nations. These books introduce the notion of “physioeconomics” which foresees a lack of global convergence in economic behaviors due to physiological and physiographic forces. His latest book is "Physioeconomics: The Basis for Long-Run Economic Growth" (MIT Press 2000). He has also published numerous articles in academic journals, including, the Rand Journal of Economics, Marketing Science, the Journal of International Business Studies, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, the International Journal of Forecasting, the European Management Journal, the European Journal of Operational Research, the Journal of Marketing, the International Journal of Research in Marketing, and the Journal of Marketing Research. He is also on the editorial boards of several academic journals. Dr. Parker received his Ph.D. in Business Economics from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania and has Masters degrees in Finance and Banking (University of Aix-Marseille) and Managerial Economics (Wharton). His undergraduate degrees are in mathematics, biology and economics (minor in aeronautical engineering). He has consulted and/or taught courses in Africa, the Middle East, Asia, Latin America, North America and Europe. About this Series This series was created for international firms who rely on foreign markets for a substantial portion of their business or who might be threatened by international competition. The estimates given in this report were created using a methodology developed by and implemented under the direct supervision of Professor Philip M. Parker, the Eli Lilly Chaired Professor of Innovation, Business and Society, at INSEAD. The methodology relies on historical figures across countries. Reported figures should be seen as estimates of past and future levels of latent demand. Acknowledgements Some of the methodologies and research approaches used in this report have benefited from the R&D Committee at INSEAD, whose research support is gratefully acknowledged. www.icongrouponline.com ©2011 ICON Group International, Inc. iv About Icon Group International, Inc. Icon Group International, Inc.’s primary mission is to assist managers with their international information needs using forward-looking economic analysis. Icon Group has field offices in San Diego, Paris, Singapore, Hong Kong, and Lomé, Togo (West Africa). Icon Group has published hundreds of multi-client databases and global/regional market data, industry, and country publications. Global/Regional Management Studies: Summarizing over 210 countries, management studies are generally organized into regional volumes and cover key management functions. 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Customer Service 9606 Tierra Grande St., Suite 205 San Diego, CA 92126 USA Fax: 858-635-9414 Email: firstname.lastname@example.org URL: www.icongrouponline.com Note: as statements and statistics in this report are forward-looking, the reader needs to read the last chapter for disclaimers and user agreement provisions. www.icongrouponline.com ©2011 ICON Group International, Inc. Contents v Table of Contents 1 INTRODUCTION & METHODOLOGY 30 1.1 Overview & Methodology 30 1.2 Market Potential Estimation Methodology 30 1.2.1 Overview 30 1.2.2 What is Latent Demand and the P.I.E.? 30 1.2.3 The Methodology 31 220.127.116.11 Step 1. Product Definition and Data Collection 33 18.104.22.168 Step 2. Filtering and Smoothing 33 22.214.171.124 Step 3. Filling in Missing Values 34 126.96.36.199 Step 4. Varying Parameter, Non-linear Estimation 34 188.8.131.52 Step 5. Fixed-Parameter Linear Estimation 34 184.108.40.206 Step 6. Aggregation and Benchmarking 35 2 SUMMARY RANKINGS 36 3 AC DRIVES 60 4 ADHESIVES AND SEALANTS 60 5 ADULT ENTERTAINMENT 61 6 ADVERTISING AGENCIES 61 7 AEROSPACE AND DEFENSE EQUIPMENT 62 8 AFTERMARKET PASSENGER CAR TIRES 62 9 AFTER-SUN MOISTURIZERS AND TAN-EXTENDER CREAMS 63 10 AGRICULTURAL CHEMICALS 63 11 AIR CONDITIONING AND REFRIGERATION EQUIPMENT 64 12 ALBUMS AND EPS 64 13 ALCOHOLIC COOLER BEVERAGES 65 14 ALES AND STOUTS 65 15 ALIMENTARY AND METABOLISM PHARMACEUTICALS 66 16 ALUMINA REFINING 66 17 ALUMINUM DIE-CASTING FOUNDRIES 67 18 AMBIENT CANNED SPONGE PUDDING 67 19 AMMONIA-FREE SEMI-PERMANENT HAIR DYES 68 20 AMUSEMENT AND RECREATION SERVICES 68 21 ANALGESICS 69 22 ANALOG CAMCORDERS 69 23 ANTHRACITE MINING 70 24 ANTIDEPRESSANT PHARMACEUTICALS 70 25 ANTIFREEZE 71 26 ANTIPERSPIRANTS AND DEODORANTS 71 27 ANTI-REFLECTIVE GLASS 72 28 ANTISEPTIC FIRST AID CREAMS, SPRAYS, AND WIPES 72 www.icongrouponline.com ©2011 ICON Group International, Inc. Contents vi 29 APPAREL AND ACCESSORIES 73 30 APPETIZERS AND DIPS 73 31 APPLES 74 32 APPLICATIONS SOFTWARE 74 33 APPLICATION-SPECIFIC INTEGRATED CIRCUITS (ASICS) 75 34 APPLICATOR TAMPONS 75 35 ARCHITECTURAL SERVICES 76 36 ART DEALERS 76 37 ASIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN BREADS 77 38 ATHLETIC FOOTWEAR 77 39 AUDIO COMPONENTS 78 40 AUTO AND HOME SUPPLY STORES 78 41 AVIATION SERVICES 79 42 BABY BOTTLES 79 43 BACON-FLAVORED POTATO CHIPS 80 44 BAGELS 80 45 BAGGED CHOCOLATE CANDY 81 46 BAKED GOODS 81 47 BAKERIES 82 48 BAKERY PRODUCTS 82 49 BAKING SODA TOOTHPASTE 83 50 BALLPOINT PENS 83 51 BANANAS 84 52 BAPS ROLLS 84 53 BAR SOAP 85 54 BASE CHEMICALS 85 55 BASMATI LONG GRAIN RICE 86 56 BATH ENHANCERS 86 57 BATTERY EGGS 87 58 BEAUTY AND BARBER SHOPS 87 59 BEEF-FLAVORED POTATO CHIPS 88 60 BEER 88 61 BELUGA CAVIAR 89 62 BEVERAGE MAKERS 89 63 BICYCLES AND BICYCLE ACCESSORIES 90 64 BIOTECHNOLOGY 90 65 BITUMINOUS COAL 91 www.icongrouponline.com ©2011 ICON Group International, Inc. Contents vii 66 BLACK TEA IN BAGS 91 67 BLANCMANGE AND PUDDING MIX 92 68 BLANK AUDIO CASSETTES 92 69 BLENDED WHISKEY 93 70 BOARD GAMES AND PUZZLES 93 71 BOAT BUILDING 94 72 BODY CARE PRODUCTS 94 73 BOILERS 95 74 BOOK PUBLISHING 95 75 BOTTLED WATER 96 76 BOTTLES OF LAGER BEER 96 77 BOUILLON CUBES 97 78 BOUTIQUE HOTELS 97 79 BOXED PEN AND PENCIL SETS 98 80 BOYS' SCHOOL UNIFORMS 98 81 BRAS AND ALLIED GARMENTS 99 82 BREAD 99 83 BREAKFAST CEREALS 100 84 BREATH FRESHENING SPRAYS 100 85 BREWERIES 101 86 BRIEFCASES 101 87 BROADBAND INTERNET ACCESS 102 88 BROADWOVEN FABRIC FINISHING MILLS 102 89 BROOM, BRUSH, AND MOP MANUFACTURING 103 90 BROWN AND WHOLEMEAL BREAD 103 91 BUBBLE GUM 104 92 BUDWEISER LAGER BEER 104 93 BUILDING INSPECTION SERVICES 105 94 BUILT-IN ELECTRIC OVENS 105 95 BULK DISPOSABLE DIAPERS 106 96 BUSES AND COACHES 106 97 BUSINESS SUPPORT SERVICES 107 98 BUTCHER SHOPS 107 99 BUTTER 108 100 CABLE AND DSL ROUTERS 108 101 CAD/CAM/CAE SOFTWARE 109 102 CAFES AND RESTAURANTS 109 www.icongrouponline.com ©2011 ICON Group International, Inc. Contents viii 103 CAJUN AND CARIBBEAN FOOD 110 104 CAKES AND PASTRIES 110 105 CALCIUM SUPPLEMENTS 111 106 CAMCORDERS 111 107 CAMERA AND PHOTOGRAPHIC SUPPLIES STORES 112 108 CAMPGROUNDS AND RECREATIONAL VEHICLE PARKS 112 109 CANAPÉ APPETIZERS 113 110 CANDLES 113 111 CANDY 114 112 CANNED BAKED BEANS 114 113 CANS OF LAGER BEER 115 114 CAR AUDIO SYSTEMS 115 115 CASHEWS 116 116 CASINOS AND GAMBLING 116 117 CAST IRON COOKWARE 117 118 CASUAL COMBINATION RESTAURANT/BARS 117 119 CAT FOOD 118 120 CD PLAYERS 118 121 CEILING LIGHT FIXTURES 119 122 CELLULAR TELEPHONES 119 123 CEMENT CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS 120 124 CEMETERIES AND CREMATORIES 120 125 CERAMIC HOUSEWARES 121 126 CHALKBOARDS 121 127 CHEESE MANUFACTURING 122 128 CHEMICALS 122 129 CHERRY-FLAVORED BOTTLED WATER 123 130 CHEWING GUM 123 131 CHICKEN PATTIES 124 132 CHILDREN'S AND INFANTS' CLOTHING STORES 124 133 CHILLED PASTA 125 134 CHINA AND PORCELAIN 125 135 CHINESE SIDE DISHES 126 136 CHIPS AND CRISPS 126 137 CHLORINE BLEACH CLEANING PRODUCTS 127 138 CHOCOLATE COOKIE CANDY BARS 127 139 CHUTNEY 128 www.icongrouponline.com ©2011 ICON Group International, Inc. Contents ix 140 CIGARETTE MANUFACTURING 128 141 CIGARS AND CIGARILLOS 129 142 CITRUS FRUIT 129 143 CIVIL AEROSPACE EQUIPMENT 130 144 CLASSIC HANDBAGS 130 145 CLAY BUILDING PRODUCTS 131 146 CLIMBING ROPES 131 147 CLOTHES DRYERS 132 148 CLOTHING ACCESSORIES 132 149 CMOS IMAGE SENSORS 133 150 COATED OR LAMINATED PAPER MANUFACTURING 133 151 COD LIVER OIL DIETARY SUPPLEMENTS 134 152 COFFEE AND TEA MANUFACTURING 134 153 COIN-OPERATED LAUNDRIES AND DRY CLEANERS 135 154 COLAS 135 155 COLLECTION AGENCIES 136 156 COLOR COSMETICS 136 157 COMBINATION VCR/DVD PLAYERS 137 158 COMMERCIAL BAKERIES 137 159 COMMUNICATIONS SERVICES 138 160 COMPACT FLUORESCENT LIGHT BULBS 138 161 COMPLETE DRY DOG FOOD 139 162 COMPOUND COOKING OILS AND FATS 139 163 COMPUTER STORAGE DEVICE MANUFACTURING 140 164 CONCENTRATED LIQUID FABRIC SOFTENERS 140 165 CONCRETE PIPE MANUFACTURING 141 166 CONSOLE VIDEO GAMES 141 167 CONSTRUCTION AND ENGINEERING SERVICES 142 168 CONSUMER BATTERIES 142 169 CONTACT LENSES 143 170 CONTINENTAL AND SPECIALTY PLANT BREAD 143 171 CONTINUOUS AIR FRESHENERS 144 172 CONTROL AND SUPPORT HOSIERY 144 173 CONVENIENCE STORES 145 174 CONVENTIONAL MINERAL OIL 145 175 COOKED CHICKEN PIECES 146 176 COOKIES AND CRACKERS 146 www.icongrouponline.com ©2011 ICON Group International, Inc. Contents x 177 COOKING RANGES 147 178 COOLING FANS 147 179 COPPER ROLLING, DRAWING, AND EXTRUDING 148 180 CORDLESS COMPUTER MICE
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