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The 2011 Report on Yarn Spinning Mills: World Market Segmentation by City by ICONGroup

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This report was created for global strategic planners who cannot be content with traditional methods of segmenting world markets. With the advent of a “borderless world”, cities become a more important criteria in prioritizing markets, as opposed to regions, continents, or countries. This report covers the top 2000 cities in over 200 countries. It does so by reporting the estimated market size (in terms of latent demand) for each major city of the world. It then ranks these cities and reports them in terms of their size as a percent of the country where they are located, their geographic region (e.g. Africa, Asia, Europe, Middle East, North America, Latin America), and the total world market. In performing various economic analyses for its clients, I have been occasionally asked to investigate the market potential for various products and services across cities. The purpose of the studies is to understand the density of demand within a country and the extent to which a city might be used as a point of distribution within its region. From an economic perspective, however, a city does not represent a population within rigid geographical boundaries. To an economist or strategic planner, a city represents an area of dominant influence over markets in adjacent areas. This influence varies from one industry to another, but also from one period of time to another. In what follows, I summarize the economic potential for the world's major cities for "yarn spinning mills" for the year 2011. The goal of this report is to report my findings on the real economic potential, or what an economist calls the latent demand, represented by a city when defined as an area of dominant influence. The reader needs to realize that latent demand may or may not represent real sales. For many items, latent demand is clearly observable in sales, as in the case for food or housing items. Consider, however, the category "satellite launch vehicles". Clearly, there are no launch pads in mo

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									   The 2011 Report on Yarn Spinning
  World Market Segmentation by City

                              Philip M. Parker, Ph.D.
                      Chaired Professor of Management Science
                    INSEAD (Singapore and Fontainebleau, France)                             ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc.

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Neither ICON Group International, Inc. nor its employees can be held accountable for
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statement and user agreement provisions at the end of this report.                                 ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc.

                                        About the Author
Dr. Philip M. Parker is the Eli Lilly Chaired Professor of Innovation, Business and Society at INSEAD where he has
taught courses on global competitive strategy since 1988. He has also taught courses at MIT, Stanford University,
Harvard University, UCLA, UCSD, and the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. Professor Parker is
the author of six books on the economic convergence of nations. These books introduce the notion of
“physioeconomics” which foresees a lack of global convergence in economic behaviors due to physiological and
physiographic forces. His latest book is "Physioeconomics: The Basis for Long-Run Economic Growth" (MIT Press
2000). He has also published numerous articles in academic journals, including, the Rand Journal of Economics,
Marketing Science, the Journal of International Business Studies, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, the
International Journal of Forecasting, the European Management Journal, the European Journal of Operational
Research, the Journal of Marketing, the International Journal of Research in Marketing, and the Journal of
Marketing Research. He is also on the editorial boards of several academic journals.

Dr. Parker received his Ph.D. in Business Economics from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania
and has Masters degrees in Finance and Banking (University of Aix-Marseille) and Managerial Economics
(Wharton). His undergraduate degrees are in mathematics, biology and economics (minor in aeronautical
engineering). He has consulted and/or taught courses in Africa, the Middle East, Asia, Latin America, North America
and Europe.

                                         About this Series
This series was created for international firms who rely on foreign markets for a substantial portion of their business
or who might be threatened by international competition. The estimates given in this report were created using a
methodology developed by and implemented under the direct supervision of Professor Philip M. Parker, the Eli Lilly
Chaired Professor of Innovation, Business and Society, at INSEAD. The methodology relies on historical figures
across countries. Reported figures should be seen as estimates of past and future levels of latent demand.

Some of the methodologies and research approaches used in this report have benefited from the R&D Committee at
INSEAD, whose research support is gratefully acknowledged.                                                     ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc.

                   About Icon Group International, Inc.
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Note: as statements and statistics in this report are forward-looking, the reader needs to read the
last chapter for disclaimers and user agreement provisions.                                                      ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc.
                                                                                         Contents         v

Table of Contents
1     INTRODUCTION & METHODOLOGY                                                                     11
    1.1     Overview and Definitions                                                                 11
    1.2     Market Potential Estimation Methodology                                                  11
       1.2.1    Overview                                                                             11
       1.2.2    What is Latent Demand and the P.I.E.?                                                12
       1.2.3    The Methodology                                                                      12
    Step 1. Product Definition and Data Collection                                  14
    Step 2. Filtering and Smoothing                                                 21
    Step 3. Filling in Missing Values                                               21
    Step 4. Varying Parameter, Non-linear Estimation                                21
    Step 5. Fixed-Parameter Linear Estimation                                       22
    Step 6. Aggregation and Benchmarking                                            22
2     USING THE DATA                                                                                 23
3     CITY SEGMENTS RANKED BY MARKET SIZE                                                            24
    3.1    Top 15 Markets                                                                            24
    3.2    Markets 16 to 30                                                                          25
    3.3    Remaining Cities by Market Rank                                                           26
4     CITY SEGMENTS IN ALPHABETICAL ORDER                                                           129
    4.1    A: from Aalborg to Az Zawiyah                                                            129
    4.2    B: from Bacolod to Bydgoszcz                                                             136
    4.3    C: from Caaguazu to Cyangugu                                                             144
    4.4    D: from Da Nang to Dzhizak                                                               152
    4.5    E: from East London to Esteli                                                            156
    4.6    F: from Fagatogo to Funchal                                                              158
    4.7    G: from Gabes to Gyumri                                                                  161
    4.8    H: from Hachinohe to Hyderabad                                                           165
    4.9    I: from Iasi to Izmir                                                                    169
    4.10   J: from Jaboatao to Jyvaskyla                                                            172
    4.11   K: from Kabul to Kzyl-Orda                                                               174
    4.12   L: from La Ceiba to Lyon                                                                 182
    4.13   M: from Macae to Mzuzu                                                                   187
    4.14   N: from Nacala to Nzerekore                                                              197
    4.15   O: from Oaklahoma City to Oyem                                                           202
    4.16   Ö: from Örebro to Örebro                                                                 204
    4.17   P: from Pago Pago to Pyuthan                                                             205
    4.18   Q: from Qandahar to Quito                                                                211
    4.19   R: from Rabat to Rustavi                                                                 212
    4.20   S: from S. Luis Potosi to Szombathely                                                    215
    4.21   T: from Tabligbo to Tyre                                                                 227
    4.22   U: from Uberaba to Utulei                                                                234
    4.23   V: from Vacoas-Phoenix to Vukovar                                                        236
    4.24   W: from Wadi Medani to Wuhan                                                             239
    4.25   X: from Xalapa to Xi'an                                                                  240
    4.26   Y: from Yamagata to Yungkang                                                             241
    4.27   Z: from Zadar to Zvishavane                                                              242
5     CITY SEGMENTS RANKED BY COUNTRY                                                               243
    5.1    Afghanistan                                                                              243
    5.2    Albania                                                                                  243                                                 ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc.
                                                     Contents         vi

  5.3    Algeria                                                244
  5.4    American Samoa                                         244
  5.5    Andorra                                                244
  5.6    Angola                                                 245
  5.7    Antigua and Barbuda                                    245
  5.8    Argentina                                              246
  5.9    Armenia                                                247
  5.10   Aruba                                                  247
  5.11   Australia                                              248
  5.12   Austria                                                248
  5.13   Azerbaijan                                             249
  5.14   Bahrain                                                249
  5.15   Bangladesh                                             249
  5.16   Barbados                                               250
  5.17   Belarus                                                250
  5.18   Belgium                                                250
  5.19   Belize                                                 251
  5.20   Benin                                                  251
  5.21   Bermuda                                                251
  5.22   Bhutan                                                 252
  5.23   Bolivia                                                252
  5.24   Bosnia and Herzegovina                                 252
  5.25   Botswana                                               253
  5.26   Brazil                                                 254
  5.27   Brunei                                                 259
  5.28   Bulgaria                                               259
  5.29   Burkina Faso                                           260
  5.30   Burma                                                  260
  5.31   Burundi                                                260
  5.32   Cambodia                                               261
  5.33   Cameroon                                               261
  5.34   Canada                                                 261
  5.35   Cape Verde                                             262
  5.36   Central African Republic                               262
  5.37   Chad                                                   262
  5.38   Chile                                                  263
  5.39   China                                                  263
  5.40   Christmas Island                                       264
  5.41   Colombia                                               264
  5.42   Comoros                                                264
  5.43   Congo (formerly Zaire)                                 265
  5.44   Cook Islands                                           265
  5.45   Costa Rica                                             265
  5.46   Cote d'Ivoire                                          266
  5.47   Croatia                                                266
  5.48   Cuba                                                   266
  5.49   Cyprus                                                 267
  5.50   Czech Republic                                         267
  5.51   Denmark                                                267
  5.52   Djibouti                                               268
  5.53   Dominica                                               268
  5.54   Dominican Republic                                     268
  5.55   Ecuador                                                269             ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc.
                                               Contents         vii

  5.56    Egypt                                           269
  5.57    El Salvador                                     269
  5.58    Equatorial Guinea                               270
  5.59    Estonia                                         270
  5.60    Ethiopia                                        270
  5.61    Fiji                                            271
  5.62    Finland                                         271
  5.63    France                                          272
  5.64    French Guiana                                   272
  5.65    French Polynesia                                273
  5.66    Gabon                                           273
  5.67    Georgia                                         273
  5.68    Germany                                         274
  5.69    Ghana                                           274
  5.70    Greece                                          275
  5.71    Greenland                                       275
  5.72    Grenada                                         275
  5.73    Guadeloupe                                      276
  5.74    Guam                                            276
  5.75    Guatemala                                       276
  5.76    Guinea                                          277
  5.77    Guinea-Bissau                                   277
  5.78    Guyana                                          277
  5.79    Haiti                                           278
  5.80    Honduras                                        278
  5.81    Hong Kong                                       278
  5.82    Hungary                                         279
  5.83    Iceland                                         279
  5.84    India                                           280
  5.85    Indonesia                                       281
  5.86    Iran                                            282
  5.87    Iraq                                            282
  5.88    Ireland                                         283
  5.89    Israel                                          283
  5.90    Italy                                           284
  5.91    Jamaica                                         284
  5.92    Japan                                           285
  5.93    Jordan                                          287
  5.94    Kazakhstan                                      288
  5.95    Kenya                                           288
  5.96    Kiribati                                        289
  5.97    Kuwait                                          289
  5.98    Kyrgyzstan                                      289
  5.99    Laos                                            289
  5.100   Latvia                                          290
  5.101   Lebanon                                         290
  5.102   Lesotho                                         290
  5.103   Liberia                                         291
  5.104   Libya                                           291
  5.105   Liechtenstein                                   291
  5.106   Lithuania                                       292
  5.107   Luxembourg                                      292
  5.108   Macau                                           292       ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc.
                                                   Contents         viii

  5.109   Madagascar                                          293
  5.110   Malawi                                              293
  5.111   Malaysia                                            294
  5.112   Maldives                                            294
  5.113   Mali                                                295
  5.114   Malta                                               295
  5.115   Marshall Islands                                    295
  5.116   Martinique                                          296
  5.117   Mauritania                                          296
  5.118   Mauritius                                           296
  5.119   Mexico                                              297
  5.120   Micronesia Federation                               298
  5.121   Moldova                                             298
  5.122   Monaco                                              298
  5.123   Mongolia                                            298
  5.124   Morocco                                             299
  5.125   Mozambique                                          299
  5.126   Namibia                                             299
  5.127   Nauru                                               300
  5.128   Nepal                                               300
  5.129   New Caledonia                                       300
  5.130   New Zealand                                         301
  5.131   Nicaragua                                           301
  5.132   Niger                                               302
  5.133   Nigeria                                             302
  5.134   Niue                                                302
  5.135   Norfolk Island                                      303
  5.136   North Korea                                         303
  5.137   Norway                                              303
  5.138   Oman                                                304
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