The 2011 Report on Planetary, Cycloidal, Epicyclic, Chain, Cam, and Allied Concentric and Parallel Shaft Speed Reducers and Motor Reducers with Center Distance of 6 Inches or Less: World Market Segmen by ICONGroup


This report was created for global strategic planners who cannot be content with traditional methods of segmenting world markets. With the advent of a “borderless world”, cities become a more important criteria in prioritizing markets, as opposed to regions, continents, or countries. This report covers the top 2000 cities in over 200 countries. It does so by reporting the estimated market size (in terms of latent demand) for each major city of the world. It then ranks these cities and reports them in terms of their size as a percent of the country where they are located, their geographic region (e.g. Africa, Asia, Europe, Middle East, North America, Latin America), and the total world market.

In performing various economic analyses for its clients, I have been occasionally asked to investigate the market potential for various products and services across cities. The purpose of the studies is to understand the density of demand within a country and the extent to which a city might be used as a point of distribution within its region. From an economic perspective, however, a city does not represent a population within rigid geographical boundaries. To an economist or strategic planner, a city represents an area of dominant influence over markets in adjacent areas. This influence varies from one industry to another, but also from one period of time to another.

In what follows, I summarize the economic potential for the world's major cities for "planetary, cycloidal, epicyclic, chain, cam, and allied concentric and parallel shaft speed reducers and motor reducers with center distance of 6 inches or less" for the year 2011. The goal of this report is to report my findings on the real economic potential, or what an economist calls the latent demand, represented by a city when defined as an area of dominant influence. The reader needs to realize that latent demand may or may not represent real sales. For many items, latent demand is clearly observable in sales, a

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									       The 2011 Report on Planetary,
    Cycloidal, Epicyclic, Chain, Cam,
   and Allied Concentric and Parallel
    Shaft Speed Reducers and Motor
   Reducers with Center Distance of 6
                       Inches or Less:
  World Market Segmentation by City

                              Philip M. Parker, Ph.D.
                      Chaired Professor of Management Science
                    INSEAD (Singapore and Fontainebleau, France)                             ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc.

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statement and user agreement provisions at the end of this report.                                 ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc.

                                        About the Author
Dr. Philip M. Parker is the Eli Lilly Chaired Professor of Innovation, Business and Society at INSEAD where he has
taught courses on global competitive strategy since 1988. He has also taught courses at MIT, Stanford University,
Harvard University, UCLA, UCSD, and the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. Professor Parker is
the author of six books on the economic convergence of nations. These books introduce the notion of
“physioeconomics” which foresees a lack of global convergence in economic behaviors due to physiological and
physiographic forces. His latest book is "Physioeconomics: The Basis for Long-Run Economic Growth" (MIT Press
2000). He has also published numerous articles in academic journals, including, the Rand Journal of Economics,
Marketing Science, the Journal of International Business Studies, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, the
International Journal of Forecasting, the European Management Journal, the European Journal of Operational
Research, the Journal of Marketing, the International Journal of Research in Marketing, and the Journal of
Marketing Research. He is also on the editorial boards of several academic journals.

Dr. Parker received his Ph.D. in Business Economics from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania
and has Masters degrees in Finance and Banking (University of Aix-Marseille) and Managerial Economics
(Wharton). His undergraduate degrees are in mathematics, biology and economics (minor in aeronautical
engineering). He has consulted and/or taught courses in Africa, the Middle East, Asia, Latin America, North America
and Europe.

                                         About this Series
This series was created for international firms who rely on foreign markets for a substantial portion of their business
or who might be threatened by international competition. The estimates given in this report were created using a
methodology developed by and implemented under the direct supervision of Professor Philip M. Parker, the Eli Lilly
Chaired Professor of Innovation, Business and Society, at INSEAD. The methodology relies on historical figures
across countries. Reported figures should be seen as estimates of past and future levels of latent demand.

Some of the methodologies and research approaches used in this report have benefited from the R&D Committee at
INSEAD, whose research support is gratefully acknowledged.                                                     ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc.

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Note: as statements and statistics in this report are forward-looking, the reader needs to read the
last chapter for disclaimers and user agreement provisions.                                                      ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc.
                                                                                         Contents         v

Table of Contents
1     INTRODUCTION & METHODOLOGY                                                                     11
    1.1     Overview and Definitions                                                                 11
    1.2     Market Potential Estimation Methodology                                                  11
       1.2.1    Overview                                                                             11
       1.2.2    What is Latent Demand and the P.I.E.?                                                12
       1.2.3    The Methodology                                                                      13
    Step 1. Product Definition and Data Collection                                  14
    Step 2. Filtering and Smoothing                                                 15
    Step 3. Filling in Missing Values                                               15
    Step 4. Varying Parameter, Non-linear Estimation                                16
    Step 5. Fixed-Parameter Linear Estimation                                       16
    Step 6. Aggregation and Benchmarking                                            17
2     USING THE DATA                                                                                 18
3     CITY SEGMENTS RANKED BY MARKET SIZE                                                            19
    3.1    Top 15 Markets                                                                            19
    3.2    Markets 16 to 30                                                                          20
    3.3    Remaining Cities by Market Rank                                                           21
4     CITY SEGMENTS IN ALPHABETICAL ORDER                                                           124
    4.1    A: from Aalborg to Az Zawiyah                                                            124
    4.2    B: from Bacolod to Bydgoszcz                                                             131
    4.3    C: from Caaguazu to Cyangugu                                                             139
    4.4    D: from Da Nang to Dzhizak                                                               148
    4.5    E: from East London to Esteli                                                            152
    4.6    F: from Fagatogo to Funchal                                                              154
    4.7    G: from Gabes to Gyumri                                                                  157
    4.8    H: from Hachinohe to Hyderabad                                                           161
    4.9    I: from Iasi to Izmir                                                                    165
    4.10   J: from Jaboatao to Jyvaskyla                                                            168
    4.11   K: from Kabul to Kzyl-Orda                                                               171
    4.12   L: from La Ceiba to Lyon                                                                 179
    4.13   M: from Macae to Mzuzu                                                                   185
    4.14   N: from Nacala to Nzerekore                                                              195
    4.15   O: from Oaklahoma City to Oyem                                                           200
    4.16   Ö: from Örebro to Örebro                                                                 202
    4.17   P: from Pago Pago to Pyuthan                                                             203
    4.18   Q: from Qandahar to Quito                                                                210
    4.19   R: from Rabat to Rustavi                                                                 211
    4.20   S: from S. Luis Potosi to Szombathely                                                    214
    4.21   T: from Tabligbo to Tyre                                                                 226
    4.22   U: from Uberaba to Utulei                                                                234
    4.23   V: from Vacoas-Phoenix to Vukovar                                                        236
    4.24   W: from Wadi Medani to Wuhan                                                             239
    4.25   X: from Xalapa to Xi'an                                                                  240
    4.26   Y: from Yamagata to Yungkang                                                             241
    4.27   Z: from Zadar to Zvishavane                                                              242
5     CITY SEGMENTS RANKED BY COUNTRY                                                               244
    5.1    Afghanistan                                                                              244
    5.2    Albania                                                                                  244                                                 ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc.
                                                     Contents         vi

  5.3    Algeria                                                245
  5.4    American Samoa                                         245
  5.5    Andorra                                                246
  5.6    Angola                                                 246
  5.7    Antigua and Barbuda                                    246
  5.8    Argentina                                              247
  5.9    Armenia                                                248
  5.10   Aruba                                                  248
  5.11   Australia                                              249
  5.12   Austria                                                249
  5.13   Azerbaijan                                             250
  5.14   Bahrain                                                250
  5.15   Bangladesh                                             251
  5.16   Barbados                                               251
  5.17   Belarus                                                252
  5.18   Belgium                                                252
  5.19   Belize                                                 253
  5.20   Benin                                                  253
  5.21   Bermuda                                                253
  5.22   Bhutan                                                 254
  5.23   Bolivia                                                254
  5.24   Bosnia and Herzegovina                                 255
  5.25   Botswana                                               255
  5.26   Brazil                                                 256
  5.27   Brunei                                                 261
  5.28   Bulgaria                                               262
  5.29   Burkina Faso                                           262
  5.30   Burma                                                  263
  5.31   Burundi                                                263
  5.32   Cambodia                                               263
  5.33   Cameroon                                               264
  5.34   Canada                                                 264
  5.35   Cape Verde                                             265
  5.36   Central African Republic                               265
  5.37   Chad                                                   266
  5.38   Chile                                                  266
  5.39   China                                                  267
  5.40   Christmas Island                                       267
  5.41   Colombia                                               268
  5.42   Comoros                                                268
  5.43   Congo (formerly Zaire)                                 269
  5.44   Cook Islands                                           269
  5.45   Costa Rica                                             270
  5.46   Cote d'Ivoire                                          270
  5.47   Croatia                                                271
  5.48   Cuba                                                   271
  5.49   Cyprus                                                 272
  5.50   Czech Republic                                         272
  5.51   Denmark                                                273
  5.52   Djibouti                                               273
  5.53   Dominica                                               274
  5.54   Dominican Republic                                     274
  5.55   Ecuador                                                275             ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc.
                                               Contents         vii

  5.56    Egypt                                           275
  5.57    El Salvador                                     276
  5.58    Equatorial Guinea                               276
  5.59    Estonia                                         276
  5.60    Ethiopia                                        277
  5.61    Fiji                                            277
  5.62    Finland                                         278
  5.63    France                                          278
  5.64    French Guiana                                   279
  5.65    French Polynesia                                279
  5.66    Gabon                                           279
  5.67    Georgia                                         280
  5.68    Germany                                         280
  5.69    Ghana                                           281
  5.70    Greece                                          281
  5.71    Greenland                                       282
  5.72    Grenada                                         282
  5.73    Guadeloupe                                      283
  5.74    Guam                                            283
  5.75    Guatemala                                       284
  5.76    Guinea                                          284
  5.77    Guinea-Bissau                                   285
  5.78    Guyana                                          285
  5.79    Haiti                                           285
  5.80    Honduras                                        286
  5.81    Hong Kong                                       286
  5.82    Hungary                                         287
  5.83    Iceland                                         287
  5.84    India                                           288
  5.85    Indonesia                                       289
  5.86    Iran                                            290
  5.87    Iraq                                            290
  5.88    Ireland                                         291
  5.89    Israel                                          291
  5.90    Italy                                           292
  5.91    Jamaica                                         292
  5.92    Japan                                           293
  5.93    Jordan                                          296
  5.94    Kazakhstan                                      296
  5.95    Kenya                                           297
  5.96    Kiribati                                        297
  5.97    Kuwait                                          297
  5.98    Kyrgyzstan                                      298
  5.99    Laos                                            298
  5.100   Latvia                                          299
  5.101   Lebanon                                         299
  5.102   Lesotho                                         299
  5.103   Liberia                                         300
  5.104   Libya                                           300
  5.105   Liechtenstein                                   301
  5.106   Lithuania                                       301
  5.107   Luxembourg                                      301
  5.108   Macau                                           302       ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc.
                                                   Contents         viii

  5.109   Madagascar                                          302
  5.110   Malawi                                              302
  5.111   Malaysia                                            303
  5.112   Maldives                                            303
  5.113   Mali                                                304
  5.114   Malta                                               304
  5.115   Marshall Islands                                    304
  5.116   Martinique                                          305
  5.117   Mauritania                                          305
  5.118   Mauritius                                           306
  5.119   Mexico                                              307
  5.120   Micronesia Federation                               308
  5.121   Moldova                                             308
  5.122   Monaco                                              308
  5.123   Mongolia                                            309
  5.124   Morocco                                             309
  5.125   Mozambique                                          310
  5.126   Namibia                                             310
  5.127   Nauru                                               310
  5.128   Nepal                                               311
  5.129   New Caledonia                                       311
  5.130   New Zealand                                         312
  5.131   Nicaragua                                           312
  5.132   Niger                                               313
  5.133   Nigeria                                             313
  5.134   Niue                                                314
  5.135   Norfolk Island                                      314
  5.136   North Korea                                         314
  5.137   Norway                                              315
  5.138   Oman                                                315
  5.139   Pakistan                                            316
  5.140   Palau                                               316
  5.141   Palestine                                           316
  5.142   Panama                                              317
  5.143   Papua New Guinea                                    317
  5.144   Paraguay                                            318
  5.145   Peru                                                318
  5.146   Philippines                                         319
  5.147   Poland                                              320
  5.148   Portugal                                 
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