This report was created for global strategic planners who cannot be content with traditional methods of segmenting world markets. With the advent of a “borderless world”, cities become a more important criteria in prioritizing markets, as opposed to regions, continents, or countries. This report covers the top 2000 cities in over 200 countries. It does so by reporting the estimated market size (in terms of latent demand) for each major city of the world. It then ranks these cities and reports them in terms of their size as a percent of the country where they are located, their geographic region (e.g. Africa, Asia, Europe, Middle East, North America, Latin America), and the total world market.
In performing various economic analyses for its clients, I have been occasionally asked to investigate the market potential for various products and services across cities. The purpose of the studies is to understand the density of demand within a country and the extent to which a city might be used as a point of distribution within its region. From an economic perspective, however, a city does not represent a population within rigid geographical boundaries. To an economist or strategic planner, a city represents an area of dominant influence over markets in adjacent areas. This influence varies from one industry to another, but also from one period of time to another.
In what follows, I summarize the economic potential for the world's major cities for "planetary, cycloidal, epicyclic, chain, cam, and allied concentric and parallel gearmotors with less than 1 hp" for the year 2011. The goal of this report is to report my findings on the real economic potential, or what an economist calls the latent demand, represented by a city when defined as an area of dominant influence. The reader needs to realize that latent demand may or may not represent real sales. For many items, latent demand is clearly observable in sales, as in the case for food or housing items. Consider,
The 2011 Report on Planetary, Cycloidal, Epicyclic, Chain, Cam, and Allied Concentric and Parallel Gearmotors with Less Than 1 Hp: World Market Segmentation by City by Philip M. Parker, Ph.D. Chaired Professor of Management Science INSEAD (Singapore and Fontainebleau, France) www.icongrouponline.com ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc. ii COPYRIGHT NOTICE 00050776-0G All of ICON Group International, Inc. publications are copyrighted. Copying our publications in whole or in part, for whatever reason, is a violation of copyrights laws and can lead to penalties and fines. Should you want to copy tables, graphs or other materials from our publications, please contact us to request permission. ICON Group International, Inc. often grants permission for very limited reproduction of our publications for internal use, press releases, and academic research. Such reproduction requires, however, confirmed permission from ICON Group International, Inc. Please read the full copyright notice, disclaimer, and user agreement provisions at the end of this report. IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER Neither ICON Group International, Inc. nor its employees can be held accountable for the use and subsequent actions of the user of the information provided in this publication. Great efforts have been made to ensure the accuracy of the data, but we can not guarantee, given the volume of information, accuracy. Since the information given in this report is forward-looking, the reader should read the disclaimer statement and user agreement provisions at the end of this report. www.icongrouponline.com ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc. iii About the Author Dr. Philip M. Parker is the Eli Lilly Chaired Professor of Innovation, Business and Society at INSEAD where he has taught courses on global competitive strategy since 1988. He has also taught courses at MIT, Stanford University, Harvard University, UCLA, UCSD, and the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. Professor Parker is the author of six books on the economic convergence of nations. These books introduce the notion of “physioeconomics” which foresees a lack of global convergence in economic behaviors due to physiological and physiographic forces. His latest book is "Physioeconomics: The Basis for Long-Run Economic Growth" (MIT Press 2000). He has also published numerous articles in academic journals, including, the Rand Journal of Economics, Marketing Science, the Journal of International Business Studies, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, the International Journal of Forecasting, the European Management Journal, the European Journal of Operational Research, the Journal of Marketing, the International Journal of Research in Marketing, and the Journal of Marketing Research. He is also on the editorial boards of several academic journals. Dr. Parker received his Ph.D. in Business Economics from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania and has Masters degrees in Finance and Banking (University of Aix-Marseille) and Managerial Economics (Wharton). His undergraduate degrees are in mathematics, biology and economics (minor in aeronautical engineering). He has consulted and/or taught courses in Africa, the Middle East, Asia, Latin America, North America and Europe. About this Series This series was created for international firms who rely on foreign markets for a substantial portion of their business or who might be threatened by international competition. The estimates given in this report were created using a methodology developed by and implemented under the direct supervision of Professor Philip M. Parker, the Eli Lilly Chaired Professor of Innovation, Business and Society, at INSEAD. The methodology relies on historical figures across countries. Reported figures should be seen as estimates of past and future levels of latent demand. Acknowledgements Some of the methodologies and research approaches used in this report have benefited from the R&D Committee at INSEAD, whose research support is gratefully acknowledged. www.icongrouponline.com ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc. iv About Icon Group International, Inc. Icon Group International, Inc.’s primary mission is to assist managers with their international information needs using forward-looking economic analysis. Icon Group has field offices in San Diego, Paris, Singapore, Hong Kong, and Lomé, Togo (West Africa). Icon Group has published hundreds of multi-client databases and global/regional market data, industry, and country publications. Global/Regional Management Studies: Summarizing over 210 countries, management studies are generally organized into regional volumes and cover key management functions. The human resource series covers minimum wages, child labor, unionization, and collective bargaining. The international law series covers media control and censorship, search and seizure, and trial justice and punishment. The diversity management series covers a variety of environmental context drivers that effect global operations. These include women’s rights, children’s rights, discrimination/racism, and religious forces and risks. Global strategic planning studies cover economic risk assessments, political risk assessments, foreign direct investment strategy, intellectual property strategy, and export strategy. Financial management studies cover taxes and tariffs. Global marketing studies focus on target segments (e.g. seniors, children, women) and strategic marketing planning. Country Studies: Often managers need an in-depth, yet broad and up-to-date understanding of a country’s strategic market potential and situation before the first field trip or investment proposal. Covering over 190 countries, each study consists of forward-looking analysis, statistics, forecasts, and information of relevance to managers. The studies are continually updated to ensure that the reports have the most relevant information available. In addition to raw information, the reports provide relevant analyses which put a more general perspective on a country (seen in the context of relative performance vis-à-vis benchmarks). Industry & Trade Studies: Companies are racing to become more international, if not global in their strategies. For over 2000 product/industry categories, these reports give the reader a concise summary of latent market forecasts, pro-forma financials, import competition profiles, key references, and trends across 200 countries of the world. Some reports focus on a particular product and region (up to four regions per product), while others focus on a product within a particular country. Intranet Subscriptions: Icon Group International, Inc. now offers full intranet subscriptions which brings millions of dollars of high-end global market research to the manager’s personal computer. For more information, please contact Icon Group via our web site: www.icongrouponline.com, or please email: firstname.lastname@example.org. In addition to these reports, Icon Group publishes similar studies for other product categories, issue areas, regions of the world, countries, cities and states (in the case of the United States). If you wish to receive a report that is customized or addressing a particular issue, feel free to contact Icon Group: Icon Group International, Inc. Customer Service 9606 Tierra Grande St., Suite 205 San Diego, CA 92126 USA Fax: 858-635-9414 Email: email@example.com URL: www.icongrouponline.com Note: as statements and statistics in this report are forward-looking, the reader needs to read the last chapter for disclaimers and user agreement provisions. www.icongrouponline.com ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc. Contents v Table of Contents 1 INTRODUCTION & METHODOLOGY 11 1.1 Overview and Definitions 11 1.2 Market Potential Estimation Methodology 11 1.2.1 Overview 11 1.2.2 What is Latent Demand and the P.I.E.? 12 1.2.3 The Methodology 12 188.8.131.52 Step 1. Product Definition and Data Collection 14 184.108.40.206 Step 2. Filtering and Smoothing 15 220.127.116.11 Step 3. Filling in Missing Values 15 18.104.22.168 Step 4. Varying Parameter, Non-linear Estimation 16 22.214.171.124 Step 5. Fixed-Parameter Linear Estimation 16 126.96.36.199 Step 6. Aggregation and Benchmarking 16 2 USING THE DATA 17 3 CITY SEGMENTS RANKED BY MARKET SIZE 18 3.1 Top 15 Markets 18 3.2 Markets 16 to 30 19 3.3 Remaining Cities by Market Rank 20 4 CITY SEGMENTS IN ALPHABETICAL ORDER 123 4.1 A: from Aalborg to Az Zawiyah 123 4.2 B: from Bacolod to Bydgoszcz 130 4.3 C: from Caaguazu to Cyangugu 138 4.4 D: from Da Nang to Dzhizak 146 4.5 E: from East London to Esteli 150 4.6 F: from Fagatogo to Funchal 152 4.7 G: from Gabes to Gyumri 155 4.8 H: from Hachinohe to Hyderabad 159 4.9 I: from Iasi to Izmir 163 4.10 J: from Jaboatao to Jyvaskyla 166 4.11 K: from Kabul to Kzyl-Orda 169 4.12 L: from La Ceiba to Lyon 177 4.13 M: from Macae to Mzuzu 183 4.14 N: from Nacala to Nzerekore 193 4.15 O: from Oaklahoma City to Oyem 198 4.16 Ö: from Örebro to Örebro 200 4.17 P: from Pago Pago to Pyuthan 201 4.18 Q: from Qandahar to Quito 208 4.19 R: from Rabat to Rustavi 209 4.20 S: from S. Luis Potosi to Szombathely 212 4.21 T: from Tabligbo to Tyre 224 4.22 U: from Uberaba to Utulei 231 4.23 V: from Vacoas-Phoenix to Vukovar 233 4.24 W: from Wadi Medani to Wuhan 236 4.25 X: from Xalapa to Xi'an 237 4.26 Y: from Yamagata to Yungkang 238 4.27 Z: from Zadar to Zvishavane 239 5 CITY SEGMENTS RANKED BY COUNTRY 240 5.1 Afghanistan 240 5.2 Albania 240 www.icongrouponline.com ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc. Contents vi 5.3 Algeria 241 5.4 American Samoa 241 5.5 Andorra 241 5.6 Angola 242 5.7 Antigua and Barbuda 242 5.8 Argentina 243 5.9 Armenia 244 5.10 Aruba 244 5.11 Australia 245 5.12 Austria 245 5.13 Azerbaijan 246 5.14 Bahrain 246 5.15 Bangladesh 247 5.16 Barbados 247 5.17 Belarus 248 5.18 Belgium 248 5.19 Belize 249 5.20 Benin 249 5.21 Bermuda 249 5.22 Bhutan 250 5.23 Bolivia 250 5.24 Bosnia and Herzegovina 250 5.25 Botswana 251 5.26 Brazil 252 5.27 Brunei 257 5.28 Bulgaria 257 5.29 Burkina Faso 258 5.30 Burma 258 5.31 Burundi 258 5.32 Cambodia 259 5.33 Cameroon 259 5.34 Canada 260 5.35 Cape Verde 260 5.36 Central African Republic 261 5.37 Chad 261 5.38 Chile 262 5.39 China 262 5.40 Christmas Island 263 5.41 Colombia 263 5.42 Comoros 263 5.43 Congo (formerly Zaire) 264 5.44 Cook Islands 264 5.45 Costa Rica 264 5.46 Cote d'Ivoire 265 5.47 Croatia 265 5.48 Cuba 266 5.49 Cyprus 266 5.50 Czech Republic 267 5.51 Denmark 267 5.52 Djibouti 268 5.53 Dominica 268 5.54 Dominican Republic 268 5.55 Ecuador 269 www.icongrouponline.com ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc. Contents vii 5.56 Egypt 269 5.57 El Salvador 270 5.58 Equatorial Guinea 270 5.59 Estonia 270 5.60 Ethiopia 271 5.61 Fiji 271 5.62 Finland 272 5.63 France 272 5.64 French Guiana 273 5.65 French Polynesia 273 5.66 Gabon 273 5.67 Georgia 274 5.68 Germany 274 5.69 Ghana 275 5.70 Greece 275 5.71 Greenland 276 5.72 Grenada 276 5.73 Guadeloupe 277 5.74 Guam 277 5.75 Guatemala 278 5.76 Guinea 278 5.77 Guinea-Bissau 278 5.78 Guyana 279 5.79 Haiti 279 5.80 Honduras 279 5.81 Hong Kong 280 5.82 Hungary 280 5.83 Iceland 280 5.84 India 281 5.85 Indonesia 282 5.86 Iran 283 5.87 Iraq 283 5.88 Ireland 284 5.89 Israel 284 5.90 Italy 285 5.91 Jamaica 285 5.92 Japan 286 5.93 Jordan 289 5.94 Kazakhstan 289 5.95 Kenya 290 5.96 Kiribati 290 5.97 Kuwait 290 5.98 Kyrgyzstan 291 5.99 Laos 291 5.100 Latvia 291 5.101 Lebanon 292 5.102 Lesotho 292 5.103 Liberia 292 5.104 Libya 293 5.105 Liechtenstein 293 5.106 Lithuania 293 5.107 Luxembourg 294 5.108 Macau 294 www.icongrouponline.com ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc. Contents viii 5.109 Madagascar 294 5.110 Malawi 295 5.111 Malaysia 295 5.112 Maldives 296 5.113 Mali 296 5.114 Malta 296 5.115 Marshall Islands 297 5.116 Martinique 297 5.117 Mauritania 297 5.118 Mauritius 298 5.119 Mexico 299 5.120 Micronesia Federation 300 5.121 Moldova 300 5.122 Monaco 300 5.123 Mongolia 301 5.124 Morocco 301 5.125 Mozambique 302 5.126 Namibia 302 5.127 Nauru 302 5.128 Nepal 303 5.129 New Caledonia 303 5.130 New Zealand 304 5.131 Nicaragua 304 5.132 Niger 305 5.133 Nigeria 305 5.134 Niue 306 5.135 Norfolk Island 306 5.136 North Korea 306 5.137 Norway 307 5.138 Oman 307 5.139 Pakistan 308 5.140 Palau 308 5.141 Palestine 308 5.142 Panama 309 5.143 Papua New Guinea 309 5.144 Paraguay 310 5.145 Peru 310 5.146 Philippines 311 5.147 Poland 311 5.148 Portugal 312 5.149 Puerto Rico 312 5.150 Qatar 313 5.151 Republic of Con
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