The 2011 Report on Overhead-Type, Single-Phase, Liquid-Immersed Distribution Transformers with Maximum 500 KVA Excluding General-Purpose Types and Parts: World Market Segmentation by City by ICONGroup

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This report was created for global strategic planners who cannot be content with traditional methods of segmenting world markets. With the advent of a “borderless world”, cities become a more important criteria in prioritizing markets, as opposed to regions, continents, or countries. This report covers the top 2000 cities in over 200 countries. It does so by reporting the estimated market size (in terms of latent demand) for each major city of the world. It then ranks these cities and reports them in terms of their size as a percent of the country where they are located, their geographic region (e.g. Africa, Asia, Europe, Middle East, North America, Latin America), and the total world market. In performing various economic analyses for its clients, I have been occasionally asked to investigate the market potential for various products and services across cities. The purpose of the studies is to understand the density of demand within a country and the extent to which a city might be used as a point of distribution within its region. From an economic perspective, however, a city does not represent a population within rigid geographical boundaries. To an economist or strategic planner, a city represents an area of dominant influence over markets in adjacent areas. This influence varies from one industry to another, but also from one period of time to another. In what follows, I summarize the economic potential for the world's major cities for "overhead-type, single-phase, liquid-immersed distribution transformers with maximum 500 kVA excluding general-purpose types and parts" for the year 2011. The goal of this report is to report my findings on the real economic potential, or what an economist calls the latent demand, represented by a city when defined as an area of dominant influence. The reader needs to realize that latent demand may or may not represent real sales. For many items, latent demand is clearly observable in sales, as in the case for food or h

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									  The 2011 Report on Overhead-Type,
       Single-Phase, Liquid-Immersed
      Distribution Transformers with
       Maximum 500 KVA Excluding
   General-Purpose Types and Parts:
  World Market Segmentation by City

                              Philip M. Parker, Ph.D.
                      Chaired Professor of Management Science
                    INSEAD (Singapore and Fontainebleau, France)                             ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc.

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statement and user agreement provisions at the end of this report.                                 ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc.

                                        About the Author
Dr. Philip M. Parker is the Eli Lilly Chaired Professor of Innovation, Business and Society at INSEAD where he has
taught courses on global competitive strategy since 1988. He has also taught courses at MIT, Stanford University,
Harvard University, UCLA, UCSD, and the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. Professor Parker is
the author of six books on the economic convergence of nations. These books introduce the notion of
“physioeconomics” which foresees a lack of global convergence in economic behaviors due to physiological and
physiographic forces. His latest book is "Physioeconomics: The Basis for Long-Run Economic Growth" (MIT Press
2000). He has also published numerous articles in academic journals, including, the Rand Journal of Economics,
Marketing Science, the Journal of International Business Studies, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, the
International Journal of Forecasting, the European Management Journal, the European Journal of Operational
Research, the Journal of Marketing, the International Journal of Research in Marketing, and the Journal of
Marketing Research. He is also on the editorial boards of several academic journals.

Dr. Parker received his Ph.D. in Business Economics from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania
and has Masters degrees in Finance and Banking (University of Aix-Marseille) and Managerial Economics
(Wharton). His undergraduate degrees are in mathematics, biology and economics (minor in aeronautical
engineering). He has consulted and/or taught courses in Africa, the Middle East, Asia, Latin America, North America
and Europe.

                                         About this Series
This series was created for international firms who rely on foreign markets for a substantial portion of their business
or who might be threatened by international competition. The estimates given in this report were created using a
methodology developed by and implemented under the direct supervision of Professor Philip M. Parker, the Eli Lilly
Chaired Professor of Innovation, Business and Society, at INSEAD. The methodology relies on historical figures
across countries. Reported figures should be seen as estimates of past and future levels of latent demand.

Some of the methodologies and research approaches used in this report have benefited from the R&D Committee at
INSEAD, whose research support is gratefully acknowledged.                                                     ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc.

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Note: as statements and statistics in this report are forward-looking, the reader needs to read the
last chapter for disclaimers and user agreement provisions.                                                      ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc.
                                                                                         Contents         v

Table of Contents
1     INTRODUCTION & METHODOLOGY                                                                     11
    1.1     Overview and Definitions                                                                 11
    1.2     Market Potential Estimation Methodology                                                  11
       1.2.1    Overview                                                                             11
       1.2.2    What is Latent Demand and the P.I.E.?                                                12
       1.2.3    The Methodology                                                                      12
    Step 1. Product Definition and Data Collection                                  14
    Step 2. Filtering and Smoothing                                                 15
    Step 3. Filling in Missing Values                                               15
    Step 4. Varying Parameter, Non-linear Estimation                                16
    Step 5. Fixed-Parameter Linear Estimation                                       16
    Step 6. Aggregation and Benchmarking                                            17
2     USING THE DATA                                                                                 18
3     CITY SEGMENTS RANKED BY MARKET SIZE                                                            19
    3.1    Top 15 Markets                                                                            19
    3.2    Markets 16 to 30                                                                          20
    3.3    Remaining Cities by Market Rank                                                           21
4     CITY SEGMENTS IN ALPHABETICAL ORDER                                                           124
    4.1    A: from Aalborg to Az Zawiyah                                                            124
    4.2    B: from Bacolod to Bydgoszcz                                                             131
    4.3    C: from Caaguazu to Cyangugu                                                             139
    4.4    D: from Da Nang to Dzhizak                                                               147
    4.5    E: from East London to Esteli                                                            151
    4.6    F: from Fagatogo to Funchal                                                              153
    4.7    G: from Gabes to Gyumri                                                                  156
    4.8    H: from Hachinohe to Hyderabad                                                           160
    4.9    I: from Iasi to Izmir                                                                    164
    4.10   J: from Jaboatao to Jyvaskyla                                                            167
    4.11   K: from Kabul to Kzyl-Orda                                                               170
    4.12   L: from La Ceiba to Lyon                                                                 178
    4.13   M: from Macae to Mzuzu                                                                   184
    4.14   N: from Nacala to Nzerekore                                                              194
    4.15   O: from Oaklahoma City to Oyem                                                           199
    4.16   Ö: from Örebro to Örebro                                                                 201
    4.17   P: from Pago Pago to Pyuthan                                                             202
    4.18   Q: from Qandahar to Quito                                                                209
    4.19   R: from Rabat to Rustavi                                                                 210
    4.20   S: from S. Luis Potosi to Szombathely                                                    213
    4.21   T: from Tabligbo to Tyre                                                                 225
    4.22   U: from Uberaba to Utulei                                                                232
    4.23   V: from Vacoas-Phoenix to Vukovar                                                        234
    4.24   W: from Wadi Medani to Wuhan                                                             237
    4.25   X: from Xalapa to Xi'an                                                                  238
    4.26   Y: from Yamagata to Yungkang                                                             239
    4.27   Z: from Zadar to Zvishavane                                                              240
5     CITY SEGMENTS RANKED BY COUNTRY                                                               241
    5.1    Afghanistan                                                                              241
    5.2    Albania                                                                                  241                                                 ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc.
                                                     Contents         vi

  5.3    Algeria                                                242
  5.4    American Samoa                                         242
  5.5    Andorra                                                242
  5.6    Angola                                                 243
  5.7    Antigua and Barbuda                                    243
  5.8    Argentina                                              244
  5.9    Armenia                                                245
  5.10   Aruba                                                  245
  5.11   Australia                                              246
  5.12   Austria                                                246
  5.13   Azerbaijan                                             247
  5.14   Bahrain                                                247
  5.15   Bangladesh                                             248
  5.16   Barbados                                               248
  5.17   Belarus                                                249
  5.18   Belgium                                                249
  5.19   Belize                                                 250
  5.20   Benin                                                  250
  5.21   Bermuda                                                250
  5.22   Bhutan                                                 251
  5.23   Bolivia                                                251
  5.24   Bosnia and Herzegovina                                 251
  5.25   Botswana                                               252
  5.26   Brazil                                                 253
  5.27   Brunei                                                 258
  5.28   Bulgaria                                               258
  5.29   Burkina Faso                                           259
  5.30   Burma                                                  259
  5.31   Burundi                                                259
  5.32   Cambodia                                               260
  5.33   Cameroon                                               260
  5.34   Canada                                                 261
  5.35   Cape Verde                                             261
  5.36   Central African Republic                               262
  5.37   Chad                                                   262
  5.38   Chile                                                  263
  5.39   China                                                  263
  5.40   Christmas Island                                       264
  5.41   Colombia                                               264
  5.42   Comoros                                                265
  5.43   Congo (formerly Zaire)                                 265
  5.44   Cook Islands                                           265
  5.45   Costa Rica                                             266
  5.46   Cote d'Ivoire                                          266
  5.47   Croatia                                                267
  5.48   Cuba                                                   267
  5.49   Cyprus                                                 268
  5.50   Czech Republic                                         268
  5.51   Denmark                                                269
  5.52   Djibouti                                               269
  5.53   Dominica                                               270
  5.54   Dominican Republic                                     270
  5.55   Ecuador                                                271             ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc.
                                               Contents         vii

  5.56    Egypt                                           271
  5.57    El Salvador                                     272
  5.58    Equatorial Guinea                               272
  5.59    Estonia                                         272
  5.60    Ethiopia                                        273
  5.61    Fiji                                            273
  5.62    Finland                                         274
  5.63    France                                          274
  5.64    French Guiana                                   275
  5.65    French Polynesia                                275
  5.66    Gabon                                           275
  5.67    Georgia                                         276
  5.68    Germany                                         276
  5.69    Ghana                                           277
  5.70    Greece                                          277
  5.71    Greenland                                       278
  5.72    Grenada                                         278
  5.73    Guadeloupe                                      279
  5.74    Guam                                            279
  5.75    Guatemala                                       280
  5.76    Guinea                                          280
  5.77    Guinea-Bissau                                   280
  5.78    Guyana                                          281
  5.79    Haiti                                           281
  5.80    Honduras                                        282
  5.81    Hong Kong                                       282
  5.82    Hungary                                         283
  5.83    Iceland                                         283
  5.84    India                                           284
  5.85    Indonesia                                       285
  5.86    Iran                                            286
  5.87    Iraq                                            286
  5.88    Ireland                                         287
  5.89    Israel                                          287
  5.90    Italy                                           288
  5.91    Jamaica                                         288
  5.92    Japan                                           289
  5.93    Jordan                                          292
  5.94    Kazakhstan                                      292
  5.95    Kenya                                           293
  5.96    Kiribati                                        293
  5.97    Kuwait                                          293
  5.98    Kyrgyzstan                                      294
  5.99    Laos                                            294
  5.100   Latvia                                          294
  5.101   Lebanon                                         295
  5.102   Lesotho                                         295
  5.103   Liberia                                         295
  5.104   Libya                                           296
  5.105   Liechtenstein                                   296
  5.106   Lithuania                                       297
  5.107   Luxembourg                                      297
  5.108   Macau                                           297       ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc.
                                                   Contents         viii

  5.109   Madagascar                                          298
  5.110   Malawi                                              298
  5.111   Malaysia                                            299
  5.112   Maldives                                            299
  5.113   Mali                                                300
  5.114   Malta                                               300
  5.115   Marshall Islands                                    300
  5.116   Martinique                                          301
  5.117   Mauritania                                          301
  5.118   Mauritius                                           302
  5.119   Mexico                                              303
  5.120   Micronesia Federation                               304
  5.121   Moldova                                             304
  5.122   Monaco                                              304
  5.123   Mongolia                                            305
  5.124   Morocco                                             305
  5.125   Mozambique                                          306
  5.126   Namibia                                             306
  5.127   Nauru                                               306
  5.128   Nepal                                               307
  5.129   New Caledonia                                       307
  5.130   New Zealand                                         308
  5.131   Nicaragua                                           308
  5.132   Niger                                               309
  5.133   Nigeria                                             309
  5.134   Niue                                                310
  5.135   Norfolk Island                                      310
  5.136   North Korea                                         310
  5.137   Norway                                              311
  5.138   Oman                                                311
  5.139   Pakistan                                            312
  5.140   Palau                                               312
  5.141   Palestine                                           312

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