ESD Strategy

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					                Thames Water’s

Draft Water Resources Management Plan

                     21 July 2008

NB This is very much a work in progress and will be
reviewed, updated and amended prior to the Council
     considering the dWRMP on 13 August 2008

       Proposed reservoir capacity = 150 million Ml
           Proposed reservoir yield = 315 Ml/d
                  1 Ml = 1 million litres
Thames Water’s statutory duty to provide a secure
supply of safe and clean water for its customers

Appropriate measures to achieve secure water supply
need to be supported, provided they are justified by clear
evidence and sound analysis

Actions to reduce demand for water:

 Leakage – 164 Ml/d saving in London by 2020, 3,500 kms mains
    replacement, beyond economic level of leakage
 Metering – compulsory metering 28% in 2010 to 85% in 2030 + tariffs
    From 2015/16
 Water efficiency measures – approx 30 Ml/d saving –
    audits, education, water butts, cistern displacement devices
                  Areas of Concern

 Departures from Government and
  Environment Agency guidance

 Questions about Thames Water’s forecasts and
  assumptions

 Areas of ongoing research which could reduce
  supply demand deficit

 Appraisal of supply options not robust
        Departures from Government and EA Guidance

                     Per Capita Consumption (PCC)

 Government’s aim to reduce PCC to 130 l/p/d by 2030
    Water Strategy for England, “Future Water”, Feb 2008 – target of 130 l/p/d, possibly 120
    l/p/d. SEEDA’s target of 135 l/p/d by 2016

 However, Thames Water says this is “very unlikely”

 Thames Water forecasts a significant increase in PCC after 2020
  to 165 l/p/d by 2035

 Difference of 35 l/p/d with a total population of 9.723 million at 2030
  = 340 Ml/d (Reservoir yield = 315 Ml/d)

 Wholly unacceptable stance – all of Thames Water’s area identified as
  “seriously water stressed”
                              Average per capita consumption (PCC) for water companies in areas of serious water stress (final planning)
                        190
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Bournemouth and
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                West Hants Water
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Sutton and East Surrey
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Water
                        180

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Portsmouth Water
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 South East Water
                        170                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Thames Water
PCC (litres/head/day)




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Southern Water
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Three Valleys Water

                        160



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Essex and Suffolk Water
                        150
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Cambridge Water



                        140
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Anglian Water
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Folkestone and Dover
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Water
                        130
                              2006-07
                                        2007-08
                                                  2008-09
                                                            2009-10
                                                                      2010-11
                                                                                2011-12
                                                                                          2012-13
                                                                                                    2013-14
                                                                                                              2014-15
                                                                                                                        2015-16
                                                                                                                                  2016-17
                                                                                                                                            2017-18
                                                                                                                                                      2018-19
                                                                                                                                                                2019-20
                                                                                                                                                                          2020-21
                                                                                                                                                                                    2021-22
                                                                                                                                                                                              2022-23
                                                                                                                                                                                                        2023-24
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  2024-25
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            2025-26
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      2026-27
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                2027-28
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          2028-29
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    2029-30
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              2030-31
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        2031-32
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  2032-33
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            2033-34
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      2034-35
                    Sustainability Reductions
            (i.e. reduced groundwater abstraction licence volumes)

 Thames Water has included 2 time-limited sustainability reductions in
  its Target Headroom calculations – Deptford and Bexley


 Contrary to EA guidance


 Has effect of increasing the forecast supply demand deficit – but not
  clear by how much
                        Climate Change
         (principally impacting on supply – reduced river flows,
              reduced groundwater, increased evaporation)


 Thames Water has used an alternative method for modelling
   climate change than recommended in EA guidance


 But EA says Thames Water’s approach is reasonable and has
  a minimal impact on supply calculations
                                 Outage
         (Temporary reduction in supply caused by mechanical failure
                             or pollution events)


 Thames Water has used an alternative method for calculating
   outage than recommended in EA guidance


 But EA says Thames Water’s approach is reasonable and has
  a minimal impact on supply calculations
   Credibility of Thames Water’s Assumptions

                Population Figures

 Population figures increased by 392,000
   – clandestine and short-term migrant populations

 Equates to a demand of about 51 Ml/d

 “Most likely” population forecasts – similar to ONS trend-based
  projections, but above policy-based projections by 3% by 2030

 Equates to a demand of about 38 Ml/d

   (It’s unclear whether trend-based or policy-based population projections
   are most appropriate to use)
                         Demographic Projections

 Combination of higher “most likely” population figures
    and lower policy-based household figures

 Results in higher average household occupancy rates
  than trend-based projections (by about 0.05 person in London, but
    extrapolated to total TWUL household of 4.14 million by 2030)

 Contradicted by Thames Water’s own 2007 survey (which shows
    actual occupancy rates lower than TW’s estimates – but they use the estimates)

 Effect of increasing forecast unmeasured household demand
    (i.e. used as a factor in determining unmeasured household consumption)
                                       PCC

 Thames Water’s own recent evidence (2007) of reduced PCC
    (indoor components of appliances, toilet flushing, baths and showers; outdoor
    components of garden watering, which is “much lower” than 2003 data)


 However, continued use of data from 2003 (which shows higher
    levels of ownership and frequency of use of components of PCC)

 Assume PCC will increase year on year “primarily driven by
  ownership of power showers and outdoor water use”

   EA says Thames Water’s forecasts for outdoor water use
    appear high

   Higher PCC has the effect of significantly increasing forecast
    demand – 35 l/p/d = 340 Ml/d; 1 l/p/d = 9.7 Ml/d
                         Compulsory Metering

 10-year compulsory metering programme 2010 – 2020

   “Full coverage” by 2020 (i.e. 80%) and 84% coverage by 2030

 However, “full coverage” is 93% in Thames Valley, 82% in London,
  and only 50% for flats in inner London (very low rate of penetration)

 Insufficient consideration given to internal meters/Automatic
  Meter Reading and assessed charges/bulk meter readings

 Counter to Government’s statement that “near universal metering”
  is needed in seriously water stressed areas by 2030

    1% metering = 2 Ml/d (very approximately)
                                 Meters

 Thames Water assumes meters under-register actual water used by
    3.24% (equates to only approx 2 Ml/d) for domestic properties and 4.89%
    for non-domestic properties

 However, meters can both under and over register


                    Water Efficiency Measures

   Vague and unchallenging – 30 Ml/d, but could do much better

   Need to target high consumption customers with awareness raising
    campaigns
                          Leakage

 Imperfect understanding of the location and amount of
   leakage will improve significantly as more customers are
   metered

 However, Thames Water’s assumptions are based on
  current data – no allowance made for expected reduction in
  uncertainty of reducing leakage

 Would equate to a demand saving
                             Target Headroom
             (Additional allowance made to account for uncertainty in the
            proposed measures to reduce demand and increase supply)


Accounts for 206 Ml/d (7.4%) of the total demand at 2030 (reservoir
yield = 315 Ml/d)

Includes:

 Variability in demographic projections – but large amount of
  uncertainty has already been removed from calculations

 Increases in PCC – but forecast PCC already well above
  Government targets, Thames Water’s own evidence (2007) of
  reducing PCC, and outdoor components of PCC are less in
  London (and EA says TW’s forecasts for outdoor water use are high)
 Measured and unmeasured non-household consumption are
    increased by 11.67% and 25% respectively – but no justification
    given for such high allowances (equates to approx 65 – 135 Ml/d)


 Availability of time-limited licences at Bexley and Deptford – but
  EA guidance says such licences should not be included


 Gradual pollution of sources – but outage also includes pollution
  events
                                                       Target headroom as % total water available for use (final planning)


                 18%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Folkestone and Dover Water
                 16%


                 14%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Sutton and East Surrey
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Anglian Water
                 12%                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Portsmouth Water
Percentage (%)




                 10%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Three Valleys Water
                 8%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Essex and Suffolk Water
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Thames Water
                 6%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Cambridge Water
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Southern Water
                 4%                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      South East Water
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Bournemouth and
                 2%                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      West Hants Water



                 0%
                       2006-07
                                 2007-08
                                           2008-09
                                                     2009-10
                                                               2010-11
                                                                         2011-12
                                                                                   2012-13
                                                                                             2013-14
                                                                                                       2014-15
                                                                                                                 2015-16
                                                                                                                           2016-17
                                                                                                                                     2017-18
                                                                                                                                               2018-19
                                                                                                                                                         2019-20
                                                                                                                                                                   2020-21
                                                                                                                                                                             2021-22
                                                                                                                                                                                       2022-23
                                                                                                                                                                                                 2023-24
                                                                                                                                                                                                           2024-25
                                                                                                                                                                                                                     2025-26
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               2026-27
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         2027-28
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   2028-29
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             2029-30
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       2030-31
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 2031-32
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           2032-33
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     2033-34
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               2034-35
                                                       Target headroom (final planning) for water companies in areas of serious water stress


                                       250


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Thames Water
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Anglian Water
                                       200
Target headroom (million litres/day)




                                       150




                                       100

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Three Valleys Water



                                        50                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Essex and Suffolk Water
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Southern Water
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Portsmouth Water
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 South East Water
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Sutton and East Surrey
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Folkestone and Dover Water
                                         0                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Bournemouth and West Hants
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Water
                                             2006-07
                                                        2007-08
                                                                  2008-09
                                                                            2009-10
                                                                                      2010-11
                                                                                                2011-12
                                                                                                          2012-13
                                                                                                                    2013-14
                                                                                                                              2014-15
                                                                                                                                        2015-16
                                                                                                                                                  2016-17
                                                                                                                                                            2017-18
                                                                                                                                                                      2018-19
                                                                                                                                                                                2019-20
                                                                                                                                                                                          2020-21
                                                                                                                                                                                                    2021-22
                                                                                                                                                                                                              2022-23
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        2023-24
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  2024-25
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            2025-26
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      2026-27
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                2027-28
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          2028-29
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    2029-30
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              2030-31
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        2031-32
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  2032-33
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            2033-34
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      2034-35
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Cambridge Water
        Areas of New/Continuing Research


        Lower Thames Operating Agreement

 To be reviewed by 2015

 Review will determine how much water can be abstracted
  from the Lower Thames above Teddington Weir

 Will require “proper scientific investigation and study”

 However, well before the review, Thames Water’s
  calculations assume a significant reduction in supply in
  London and SWOX (but not quantified)
                 Indirect Wastewater Reuse

 5-year research programme at Deephams sewage treatment works


 Trial plant built to investigate possible use of “state-of-the-art”
  technologies


 However, as research is incomplete, a fully operational plant at
  Deephams is included only as a Contingency Option


 Option rejected of providing plants anywhere else in London or
  SWOX
        Aquifer Storage and Recovery (ASR)

 No ASR schemes in use by Thames Water
    so potential yield uncertain

 Research continuing into feasibility and potential yield

            SWA – SWOX Transfer

 Supply demand surplus in Slough/Wycombe/Aylesbury
    (SWA) Water Resource Zone throughout plan period

 Thames Water plans “to examine the potential development”
  of a SWA – SWOX Transfer

 However, only included as a Contingency Option
                Leakage Reduction Targets

 Subject to adequate funding (2009 Price Review), confidence
   in robustness of leakage reduction targets will increase above
   50% (capital maintenance programme of mains replacement in London)

 This will decrease forecast demand
                                Metering and Tariffs

 Government review to encourage greater meter penetration in
    seriously water stressed areas

 Will encourage Thames Water to increase meter penetration
  for flats in inner London beyond 50%

 Research ongoing into most effective tariffs – seasonal or bulk
    (introduced from 2015/16)
                Climate Change Projections

 New set of climate change projections


 Enable up-to-date assessments of operational risks
  from climate change


   Particularly significant as highest component of
    Target Headroom by far is uncertainty of the effects of
    climate change
   Inadequacies of the Supply Options Appraisal

                  Bulk Transfers

 dWRMP considers bulk transfer of water to other water companies
   (using existing supplies and potential use of proposed reservoir)

 However, Thames Water says: “No opportunities were
  forthcoming to introduce supplies into Thames Water”
   (no explanation)

 Options of bulk transfers from other water companies in
  the South-East or from the River Severn via a new reservoir
  in the Lower Severn Valley (Longdon Marsh) not considered

 GARD highlights this as an option which has not been
  properly explored
           Inter-Zonal Transfers

 SWA – SWOX transfer – potential yield of 10 Ml/d


 Included only as a Contingency Option
                 Indirect Wastewater Reuse

   Essex and Suffolk Water plant at Langford –
    uses “lamellar separation” technology

 Southern Water is planning several wastewater reuse schemes
  to increase supply as alternatives to increasing reservoir capacity

   Thames Water is investigating possible use of
    “state-of-the-art” technologies such as “reverse osmosis”

   Considered as an option only on one site in London (Deephams)
    and not at all in SWOX

   Could yield up to 100 Ml/d at Deephams

   Similar yields could be achieved at sewage treatment works
    at Banbury, Oxford, Swindon, Beckton, Crossness and Windsor

 EA and GARD strongly encourage consideration of this option
           Direct Wastewater Reuse

 Appears to be rejected as an option as it is “considered
   publicly unacceptable on health concern grounds”




               Smaller Reservoir

 Consideration of the above issues should result in a smaller
   supply demand deficit

 This would enable proper consideration of options
  for a smaller reservoir on a number of sites
                Thames Water’s Forecasts

In 1990, Thames Water said the combined demand for London
and SWOX would be 2,767 Ml/d in 2016

Now, Thames Water says the combined demand for London
and SWOX will be 2,442 Ml/d in 2020 and 2,653 Ml/d in 2035


The principal question, therefore, has to be:

Why does Thames Water continue to claim the need for a
reservoir of the same size and in the same location as
proposed in 1990 when forecast demand is now so much lower?
                             Conclusion


Taken together, these matters lead to the conclusion that the
forecast deficit in the supply demand balance has been overstated
by Thames Water and, as a result, the need for a 150mMl reservoir
south of Abingdon in this WRMP period has not been proven

(A compelling case for the reservoir needs to be made before
any decision is made to allow the development given the massive
scale of the proposed reservoir, the dramatic impact it would have
on the surrounding landscape, the significant disturbance to
the local population throughout its long construction period,
and its high cost)