Los Angeles City Planning.PPT by shensengvf

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									             City of Los Angeles
             Department of City Planning




          City Planning Commission
              Growth Workshop



                      Citywide Planning Division
9/16/99
          PRESENTATION OVERVIEW

             WHAT IS GROWTH?

             HISTORICAL DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITY AND
              POPULATION INCREASES

             FUTURE NEEDS CREATED BY CONTINUING GROWTH

             INFRASTRUCTURE ISSUES




9/16/99               City of Los Angeles Department of City Planning
                   WHAT IS GROWTH?


             POPULATION INCREASES

             ECONOMIC EXPANSION

             LAND USE DENSIFICATION/INTENSIFICATION




9/16/99                 City of Los Angeles Department of City Planning
               POPULATION GROWTH


             NATURAL INCREASE

             NET DOMESTIC MIGRATION

             IMMIGRATION




9/16/99                City of Los Angeles Department of City Planning
                  POPULATION LEVEL


             DATA SOURCES

                 U.S. CENSUS BUREAU
                 STATE DEPARTMENT OF FINANCE (DOF)
                 PRIVATE VENDORS


             DATA USUALLY MAINTAINED BY CENSUS TRACTS




9/16/99                   City of Los Angeles Department of City Planning
                  ECONOMIC EXPANSION

             TYPES OF MEASURES:

                 PERSONAL INCOME                            BUREAU OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS, FTB,
                                                             BLS
                 RETAIL SALES                               BOARD OF EQUALIZATION
                 EMPLOYMENT                                 STATE EDD, SCAG (DUN & BRADSTREET &
                                                             ABI), UI
                 RETAIL, OFFICE, INDUSTRIAL SPACE           BUILDING PERMITS


                 LEASING OF COMMERCIAL AND                  REAL ESTATE BROKERAGE FIRMS
                  INDUSTRIAL SPACE



             DATA OFTEN CITYWIDE OR COUNTYWIDE, BUT
              DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITY AND JOBS OCCASIONALLY
              AVAILABLE AT CENSUS TRACT LEVEL




9/16/99                       City of Los Angeles Department of City Planning
              LAND USE DENSIFICATION /
                 INTENSIFICATION
             POPULATION DENSITY

             EMPLOYMENT DENSITY

             BUILDING HEIGHTS

             BUILDING BULK (FAR)

             HOUSING DENSITY

             DATA LARGELY MAINTAINED IN PARCEL LEVEL
              FILES


9/16/99                 City of Los Angeles Department of City Planning
                                           A Growing City - Population
           Source: Census Bureau, Department of Finance, Department of City Planning.


                                    4,000,000
                                    3,500,000
                                    3,000,000
                 Total Population




                                    2,500,000
                                    2,000,000
                                    1,500,000
                                    1,000,000
                                      500,000
                                              0
                                                   1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998


           Numeric Total::

          1900                      1910    1920    1930   1940     1950         1960   1970   1980     1990   1992   1994   1996   1998
          102479 319198 576673 1238048 1504277 1970358 2479015 2811801 2968579 3485398 3462403 3451961 3580755 3743000



9/16/99                                                    City of Los Angeles Department of City Planning
                                               A Growing City -
                                              Population Changes
            Source: Census Bureau, Department of Finance, Department of City Planning.


              700,000
              600,000
              500,000
              400,000
                                                                                                                                        Population Changes
              300,000
                                                                                                                                        Average Changes
              200,000
              100,000
                      0
                            1900-      1910-      1920-      1930-      1940-       1950-   1960-    1970-     1980-     1990-
                            1910       1920       1930       1940       1950        1960    1970     1980      1990      1998



              Numeric Total           1900-1910       1910-1920      1920-1930      1930-1940   1940-1950    1950-1960   1960-1970   1970-1980   1980-1990   1990-1998
            Population Changes         216,719         257,475        661,375        266,229     466,081      508,657     332,786     156,778     516,819     257,602
          Annual Average Changes       21,672           25,748        66,138         26,623      46,608       50,866      33,279      15,678      51,682      32,200




9/16/99                                                  City of Los Angeles Department of City Planning
                     A Growing City - Employment
            Source: Employment Development Department, SCAG.




            Numeric Total     1973                     1976           1980      1984      1990      1992      1994      1997
          Total Employment 1,403,000                 1,499,000     1,591,000 1,687,000 1,901,000 1,687,000 1,654,000 1,748,000



9/16/99                                              City of Los Angeles Department of City Planning
                                     A Growing City -
                                    Employment Changes
          Source: Employment Development Department, SCAG.


             250000
             200000
             150000
             100000
              50000
                                                                                                                   Employment Changes
                    0
                                                                                                                   Average Changes
             -50000 1973-1976 1976-1980 1980-1984 1984-1990 1990-1992 1992-1994 1994-1997
            -100000
            -150000
            -200000
            -250000


                                            1973-1976        1976-1980    1980-1984     1984-1990    1990-1992   1992-1994   1994-1997
           Employment Changes                96,000            92,000      96,000        214,000      -214,000    -33,000     94,000
          Annual Average Changes             32,000            23,000      24,000        35,667       -107,000    -16,500     31,333



9/16/99                                            City of Los Angeles Department of City Planning
                              Comparing Population and
                                     Housing
          Source: Census Bureau, DOF , and DCP.




             Numeric Total::
                                                           1970               1980                  1990    1998
             Total Population                             2,811,801           2,966,850         3,485,398   3,743,000
             Total Housing Units                          1,047,173           1,188,923         1,299,963   1,329,100




9/16/99                                           City of Los Angeles Department of City Planning
                                               Comparing Population and
                                                      Housing
          Source: Census Bureau, DOF , and DCP.



                                                    600,000                                                                   160,000




                                                                                                                                        Changes in Housing Units
                       Changes in Population
                                                    500,000                                                                   140,000
                                                                                                                              120,000
                                                    400,000
                                                                                                                              100,000
                                                    300,000                                                                   80,000
                                                    200,000                                                                   60,000
                                                                                                                              40,000
                                                    100,000
                                                                                                                              20,000
                                                            0                                                                 0
                                                                     1970-1980             1980-1990              1990-1998
                                               Population             155,049                518,548               257,602
                                               Housing Stock          141,750                111,040               29,137




9/16/99                                                         City of Los Angeles Department of City Planning
                                        Comparing Population and
                                             Employment
          Source:Census Bureau, DOF, EDD, and SCAG.

                                        25.0%
                                        20.0%
                   Percent of Change

                                        15.0%
                                        10.0%
                                         5.0%
                                         0.0%
                                        -5.0%
                                       -10.0%
                                                           1970-1980                     1980-1990                  1990-1998
                              Population                      5.5%                         17.5%                      7.4%
                              Employment                     13.4%                         19.5%                     -8.0%



           Numeric Total:
                                                                      1970                1980               1990            1998
            Total Population                                         2,811,801            2,966,850          3,485,398       3,743,000
                                                                                  (1)                                               (2)
            Total Employment                                    1,403,000                 1,591,000          1,914,000 1,748,000



                                  Note (1) EDD 1973 Total Employment Estimate.
                                  Note (2) EDD 1997 Total Employment Estimate.



9/16/99                                                    City of Los Angeles Department of City Planning
                                             Comparing Population and
                                                  Employment
          Source:Census Bureau, DOF, EDD, and SCAG.



                                                600,000                                                                     400,000




                                                                                                                                       Changes in Employment
                     Changes in Population

                                                500,000                                                                     300,000
                                                400,000                                                                     200,000
                                                300,000                                                                     100,000
                                                200,000                                                                     0
                                                100,000                                                                     -100,000
                                                      0                                                                     -200,000
                                                             1970-1980            1980-1990            1990-1998
                                             Population       155,049              518,548                  257,602
                                             Employment       188,000              323,000              -166,000      (1)




                         Note (1) EDD 1997 Total Employment Estimate.



9/16/99                                                   City of Los Angeles Department of City Planning
            Industrial, Retail, and Office Space
          Source: Department of City Planning, Department of Building and Safety.


                                         60.00%
                                         50.00%
                                         40.00%
                    Percent of Change


                                         30.00%
                                         20.00%
                                         10.00%
                                          0.00%
                                         -10.00%
                                                              Industrial                      Retail           Office
                                        1980-1990              14.40%                        27.44%            51.34%
                                        1990-1996              -1.98%                        3.07%             3.43%

           Numeric Total (Square Footage):
                   Total                                     1980                          1990                  1996
                 Industrial                               267,467,420                   305,993,622           299,937,500
                   Retail                                 141,471,426                   180,298,200           185,829,100
                   Office                                 106,290,700                   160,859,000           166,376,700

                                         Industrial space includes factory and warehouse.
                                         Retail space includes store, hotel, restaurant, and theater.
                                         Office spaces includes office.

9/16/99                                                     City of Los Angeles Department of City Planning
            Industrial, Retail, and Office Space
          Source: Department of City Planning, Department of Building and Safety.


              Changes in Square Footage
                                          60,000,000
                                          50,000,000
                                          40,000,000
                                          30,000,000
                                          20,000,000
                                          10,000,000
                                                     0
                                          -10,000,000
                                                                   Industrial                         Retail            Office
                                            1980-1990             38,526,202                       38,826,774         54,568,300
                                            1990-1996              -6,056,122                       5,530,900         5,517,700



                                          Industrial space includes factory and warehouse.
                                          Retail space includes store, hotel, restaurant, and theater.
                                          Office spaces includes office.


9/16/99                                                             City of Los Angeles Department of City Planning
              FUTURE NEEDS CREATED BY
                CONTINUING GROWTH
             LONG TERM ECONOMIC EXPANSION DEPENDS ON
              PROVISION OF:

                  SUITABLE SITES FOR INDUSTRY,
                  ADEQUATE HOUSING,
                  SUPPORTING INFRASTRUCTURE, AND
                  A SKILLED LABOR FORCE




9/16/99                    City of Los Angeles Department of City Planning
          ADEQUATE LAND/SPACE FOR
           EMPLOYMENT GROWTH IS
                 NEEDED:
             TO MAINTAIN PERSONAL INCOMES FOR RESIDENT
              POPULATION
             TO MAINTAIN FISCAL STRENGTH OF THE CITY
             TO STIMULATE ADEQUATE GROWTH OF INDUSTRIAL,
              OFFICE, AND RETAIL ACTIVITY
             TO PROVIDE FOR NEW INDUSTRIES WITH CHANGING
              SPACE REQUIREMENTS
             TO HAVE LOCATIONS WHICH MINIMIZE CONFLICTS
              WITH ADJACENT RESIDENTIAL AREAS
             TO HAVE LOCATIONS WITH ADEQUATE SUPPORTING
              INFRASTRUCTURE



9/16/99                City of Los Angeles Department of City Planning
                ADEQUATE HOUSING,
              ESPECIALLY AFFORDABLE
                HOUSING, IS NEEDED:
             TO REDUCE THE INCREASING DEFICIT OF SUITABLE
              HOUSING
             TO REDUCE TRAFFIC CONGESTION CAUSED BY
              HOUSING/JOB LOCATION MISMATCH
             TO PROVIDE ADEQUATE LOCAL HOUSING WHICH IS
              ESSENTIAL TO MAINTENANCE OF CONTINUING
              ECONOMIC GROWTH
             TO PROVIDE FOR POPULATION GROWTH WHICH WILL
              RESULT FROM A STRONG ECONOMY




9/16/99                 City of Los Angeles Department of City Planning
                ADEQUATE SITES FOR
               INFRASTRUCTURE AND
              MUNICIPAL FACILITIES ARE
                      NEEDED:
             TO MAINTAIN QUALITY OF LIFE FOR RESIDENT
              POPULATION

             TO FACILITATE ECONOMIC GROWTH ON A LONG
              TERM BASIS

             TO MAINTAIN AN EDUCATED POPULATION

             TO FACILITATE DELIVERY OF PARK, LIBRARY,
              POLICE, AND FIRE SERVICES                                   …..


9/16/99                 City of Los Angeles Department of City Planning
                ADEQUATE SITES FOR
               INFRASTRUCTURE AND
              MUNICIPAL FACILITIES ARE
                NEEDED: -- CONTINUED
             TO FACILITATE DEVELOPMENT OF INFRASTRUCTURE
              (POWER, SOLID WASTE DISPOSAL, WASTEWATER,
              WATER FACILITIES)

             TO ALLOW FOR NEEDED EXPANSION OF THE PORT
              AND AIRPORTS WHICH FACILITATE ECONOMIC
              GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT

             TO PROVIDE FOR ADEQUATE MOBILITY WITHIN THE
              CITY

9/16/99                 City of Los Angeles Department of City Planning
          REGIONAL TRAFFIC TRENDS
             INCREASE IN AVERAGE NUMBER OF VEHICLES PER
              HOUSEHOLD
             INCREASE IN AVERAGE NUMBER OF TRIPS PER
              HOUSEHOLD
             VEHICLE MILES TRAVELED (VMT) AND VEHICLE
              HOURS TRAVELLED (VHT) ARE GROWING FASTER
              THAN POPULATION
             TRUCK TRAFFIC IS NOTICEABLY INCREASING
             RIDESHARING (CARPOOLING AND TRANSIT USE) HAS
              DECREASED (SLIGHTLY)
             GAS PRICES (IN ADJUSTED DOLLARS) DECREASING




9/16/99                 City of Los Angeles Department of City Planning /Department of Transportation
                 POPULATION AND
               EMPLOYMENT GROWTH
              LEADS TO MORE TRAFFIC
             MORE POPULATION MEANS MORE:
                 HOME TO WORK TRIPS
                 HOME TO SCHOOL TRIPS
                 HOME TO SHOP TRIPS
                 SERVICE TRIPS


             MORE JOBS MEANS MORE:
                 COMMUTER TRIPS
                 CUSTOMER TRIPS
                 GOODS DELIVERY TRIPS
                 OTHER BUSINESS TRIPS



9/16/99                   City of Los Angeles Department of City Planning /Department of Transportation
              RISING INCOMES RESULT IN
                    MORE TRAVEL


             STATISTICS SHOW THAT RISING INCOMES INCREASE
              DEMAND FOR AUTOMOBILE TRAVEL.

             AS INCOMES RISE, HOUSEHOLDS OWN MORE CARS
              AND DRIVE THEM MORE MILES. THE MORE CARS A
              HOUSEHOLD OWNS, THE MORE TRIPS THEY TEND TO
              MAKE.                                   …..




9/16/99                 City of Los Angeles Department of City Planning /Department of Transportation
              RISING INCOMES RESULT IN
                    MORE TRAVEL
                      -- CONTINUED
             STATISTIC (ACCORDING TO SCAG 1998 RTP)
                 A SINGLE FAMILY DWELLING WITH TWO CARS
                  GENERATES AN AVERAGE OF 8 TRIPS PER DAY
                 A SINGLE FAMILY DWELLING WITH ONE CAR--- 7
                  TRIPS PER DAY.
                 A MULTIPLE FAMILY DWELLING WITH NO CARS ---
                  4 TRIPS PER DAY.
             STATISTIC (CMP MONITORING DATA)
                 TRAFFIC COUNTS IN LA COUNTY DROPPED SHARPLY
                  BETWEEN 1992 AND 1997, IN THE WAKE OF THE
                  RECESSION AND DROP IN EMPLOYMENT, THEN ROSE
                  SHARPLY IN 1999, DURING THE RECOVERY AND
                  RESURGENCE IN EMPLOYMENT.


9/16/99                    City of Los Angeles Department of City Planning /Department of Transportation
                       EFFECTS OF NEW
                        DEVELOPMENT
             LOCATION
                 MAJOR EMPLOYMENT CENTERS WHICH ARE NOT CLOSE
                  TO THE EXPECTED LABOR POOL MEANS:
                           LONGER TRIPS
                           CONGESTED CORRIDORS


             SITE SPECIFIC IMPACTS (SUCH AS DRIVEWAY
              LOCATION) CAN CAUSE
                          INTERSECTION CONGESTION
                          NEIGHBORHOOD IMPACTS                                                        …..




9/16/99                   City of Los Angeles Department of City Planning /Department of Transportation
                      EFFECTS OF NEW
                       DEVELOPMENT
                         -- CONTINUED
             IMPACTS VARY BY TYPE OF LAND USE

          EXAMPLE:

          FAST FOOD (1,000 SQ FT) ---------------- 496 VEHICLE TRIPS
            (ALREADY ON THE ROAD?)

          LIGHT INDUSTRIAL (70,000 SQ FT)-----490 VEHICLE TRIPS
             (ALL NEW TRIPS AND TRUCK IMPACTS)




9/16/99                   City of Los Angeles Department of City Planning / Department of Transportation
              “E-COMMERCE ECONOMY”
              LEADS TO MORE MOBILITY
             THE NEW INFORMATION ECONOMY MAKES HOUSEHOLDS
              AND FIRMS MORE FLEXIBLE THAN EVER IN TERMS OF
              WHERE THEY CAN LOCATE AND WHAT HOURS THEY
              WORK.
             EFFICIENT TELECOMMUNICATIONS, A FLUID JOB MARKET
              AND FLEXIBLE JOB ARRANGEMENTS ENABLE FIRMS AND
              HOUSEHOLDS TO MOVE AWAY FROM URBAN CENTERS TO
              LESS CROWDED, MORE AFFORDABLE AREAS AT THE
              URBAN FRINGE, GRADUALLY BRINGING URBANIZATION
              AND TRAFFIC WITH THEM.
             WITH ONLY ABOUT A THIRD OF THE WORKFORCE NOW
              ESTIMATED TO BE IN TRADITIONAL 9-TO-5 JOBS, AND
              MORE PEOPLE WORKING OUT OF THEIR HOMES, THERE IS
              MORE POTENTIAL FOR NON-PEAK HOUR TRIP-MAKING.
             E-COMMERCE ENABLES THE “JUST IN TIME” DELIVERY.
              TRUCKS ARE BECOMING ROLLING WAREHOUSES.

9/16/99                  City of Los Angeles Department of City Planning /Department of Transportation
                      CONCLUSION


             TRAFFIC CONGESTION IS A BY-PRODUCT OF
              ECONOMIC GROWTH

             THE DEVELOPMENT PROCESS CAN ONLY
              PARTIALLY MITIGATE THE IMPACTS




9/16/99               City of Los Angeles Department of City Planning /Department of Transportation

								
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