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How to use PSI for
Innovative Transport
Services in Europe
Dr. Pirkko Saarikivi
Foreca Consulting Ltd
Stimulating PSI Re-use: European progress, 24th November 2009 Stockholm
Outline
• What is PSI weather information
and sources?
• Rules and practices
• ROADIDEA: Roadmap for Radical
Innovations in Transport Services
• Key problems and some
innovative solutions
Stimulating PSI Re-use: European progress, 24th November 2009 Stockholm
Weather service system
Players:
• Public national meteorological institutes
• Private weather service companies
Playing with:
• Continuous 24/7 data feed of observations and
forecasting model outputs
Users:
• General public through media, Internet, mobile
phones...
• Weather sensitive industry, transport, etc.
Stimulating PSI Re-use: European progress, 24th November 2009 Stockholm
Data from weather services
• All countries have their publicly
funded national meteorological
institute NMS
• World Meteorological Organisation
of United Nations obliges NMSs to
observe weather with well-defined
standards
• Largest centres run their versions
of forecasting models
Stimulating PSI Re-use: European progress, 24th November 2009 Stockholm
Global surface observations
Stimulating PSI Re-use: European progress, 24th November 2009 Stockholm
Vertical radio soundings
Stimulating PSI Re-use: European progress, 24th November 2009 Stockholm
Buoys over the oceans
Stimulating PSI Re-use: European progress, 24th November 2009 Stockholm
Geostationary satellites
Stimulating PSI Re-use: European progress, 24th November 2009 Stockholm
Polar orbiting satellites
Stimulating PSI Re-use: European progress, 24th November 2009 Stockholm
Aircraft observations
Stimulating PSI Re-use: European progress, 24th November 2009 Stockholm
Weather radars and lightning indicators
• other special observations from masts etc.
Stimulating PSI Re-use: European progress, 24th November 2009 Stockholm
Forecasting models
• In multitude of grid resolutions and time scales
Stimulating PSI Re-use: European progress, 24th November 2009 Stockholm
Other weather PSI sources
• Other sources of weather PSI are
mainly transport administrations
• Aviation has its own observing
network on airports
• Marine administration has special
marine stations
• Road administration has Road
Weather Information Systems
Stimulating PSI Re-use: European progress, 24th November 2009 Stockholm
Road Weather Information Systems
Stimulating PSI Re-use: European progress, 24th November 2009 Stockholm
Traffic models
Model predicts effects of weather to traffic flow
Stimulating PSI Re-use: European progress, 24th November 2009 Stockholm
Then re-use...
How to start weather business?
• You have a brilliant product idea
• You have enthusiastic experts with
entrepreneurial minds
• But...
• You must have plenty of money to buy
European weather information
• For road information it is even more
difficult, you may not get it at all...
Stimulating PSI Re-use: European progress, 24th November 2009 Stockholm
Rules and practices in the EU
• European model: complex, high costs high costs
• European pricing model: complex,
– Governed by EC Directive 2003/98EC which allows
– Governed by EC Directive 2003/98EC which allows
• governments try toto recover maximum money theyget from the
• governments try recover maximum money they can can get
sale of data. of data.
from the sale
• The application of complex and protective licenses
• The application of complex and protective licenses
• Direct retail competition between thethe private sectorthe the
• Direct retail competition between private sector and and
dominant commercial arms of thethe wholesale data suppliers =
dominant commercial arms of wholesale data suppliers =
conflicts of interest
conflicts of interest
• Internal cross subsidisation?
• Internal cross subsidisation?
– Commercial Sector stagnates:
– Commercial Sector stagnates:
•
• low penetration (~ 0.3% potentially available market)
low penetration (~ 0.3% ofof potentially available market)
•
• and low growth (1.2% p.a.)
and low growth (1.2% p.a.)
Stimulating PSI Re-use: European progress, 24th November 2009 Stockholm
Rules and practices in the US
US pricing model: simple, low costs
• data are available to all for commercial re-
use at the cost of re-distribution
• re-use governed by simple, overarching
license
• No conflicts of interest
• Commercial sector thrives
•High penetration (~7% of potentially available
market)
•Roughly 4 times the size of the European
sector
•Growing at 14 times the rate of the European
market
Stimulating PSI Re-use: European progress, 24th November 2009 Stockholm
And it makes a difference
The US and European markets compared
2006/7
Potential Potential
Market Actual
Annual net Annual
Actual Annual
GDP for additional Market
Region Market Tax
$ x106 Meteorological Tax growth
$ x109 revenue
services Revenue %
$ x 106
$ x1011 $ x 106
US 11,413,625 2.0 1.4 396 0 17.0
Europe 14,527,140 2.56 0.372 147 350 1.2
Sources: IMF, Eurostat, Meteorol. Appl 15 305-312 2008, Weiss 2002, Wikipedia
Stimulating PSI Re-use: European progress, 24th November 2009 Stockholm
To realise the EU potential…
...we must change the model
• Unmodified US model not
necessarily best for Europe
• But move towards US model is
necessary
• Requires political will and a degree
of risk by governments
Stimulating PSI Re-use: European progress, 24th November 2009 Stockholm
Changes are necessary
• PSI must ideally be available at
marginal cost of distribution or at
least at prices determined by
genuinely competitive market
• “Downstream” arms of NMHS must
be completely separated from
“Upstream” arms
• Some countries already leading the
way to the new world order: The
Netherlands, The UK, Norway,
Spain, Iceland
Stimulating PSI Re-use: European progress, 24th November 2009 Stockholm
Problem in competitiveness
Compared to the USA,
• European meteorological value-
adding sector is underperforming by
a factor of at least 3
• Sector is growing at a rate ~14
times below its potential
• There is a net loss of taxation to
national exchequers of ~300 million
Euro per year from the sector
Stimulating PSI Re-use: European progress, 24th November 2009 Stockholm
And meanwhile we wait…
There are much more serious
problems waiting to be solved
Stimulating PSI Re-use: European progress, 24th November 2009 Stockholm
Problem 1: Traffic may kill you!
• More than 40.000
killed every year in
the EU in traffic
accidents
• More than 1.200.000
injured
• Weather plays a
significant role in
most accidents
Stimulating PSI Re-use: European progress, 24th November 2009 Stockholm
Problem 2: It’s getting hot!
• 20% of green
house gas
emissions are
generated by
transport
• But efficient and
safe transport is
vital for the society
and economy
Stimulating PSI Re-use: European progress, 24th November 2009 Stockholm
Innovating is necessary!
« Innovating as activity is important, whether
leading to concrete results or not »
« Do not miss the opportunity of any crises, as
best innovations are produced during those »
« Ideas may not make you rich, but will always
make your life richer »
Liisa Välikangas, Professor on Innovation management
Stimulating PSI Re-use: European progress, 24th November 2009 Stockholm
Road Map for Radical Innovations
in European Transport Services
• Budget: 4.9 M€ FP7/INFSO funding: 3.3 M€
• Duration: 30 months 2007-2010
• Coordinator: Foreca Consulting Ltd / Dr. Pirkko Saarikivi
• 14 Partners from Finland: Foreca Consulting Ltd, VTT,
Finnish Meteorological Institute, Destia, Logica Suomi,
Sweden: Klimator AB, Semcon Caran AB, The
Netherlands: Demis BV, Germany: DLR, Pöyry Infra
Traffic GmbH, Italy: ARPAV, Hungary: Road Safety
Engineering Bureau, Croatia: Meteo-Info d.o.o.,
Slovenia: Amanova d.o.o.
Stimulating PSI Re-use: European progress, 24th November 2009 Stockholm
Overall objectives
• Thorough analysis of the potential of the
European transport service sector for new
innovations
• Opportunities and barriers?
• Can Europe produce radical innovations?
• We claim that…
Stimulating PSI Re-use: European progress, 24th November 2009 Stockholm
Our hypothesis
• Effective accessibility to all kinds of useful
information,
• combined with advanced data fusion
methods,
• applied on technological information
platforms,
• with high level of standardisation;
• These are the prerequisites for the creation of
innovative mobility services!
Stimulating PSI Re-use: European progress, 24th November 2009 Stockholm
Technical platform and data flow
Stimulating PSI Re-use: European progress, 24th November 2009 Stockholm
US Federal Highway Administration vision:
Clarus initiative
Environment Canada
RWIN Server
State DOT
GPS/AVL
State DOT
RWIS Server VII Probe-
Based Data
State DOT
RWIS Server
State DOT
RWIS Server
Collector
Services
Quality 7 Day
Data Cache
•Observations
Checking
Web Metadata •Metadata
Portal
Cache
•Quality Flags
The Clarus System
Nationwide Data Management System for
Surface Transportation Environmental & Pavement Condition Observations
Stimulating PSI Re-use: European progress, 24th November 2009 Stockholm
Marine vision Authorities maintain
infrastructure to collect and
store traffic information form
various data feeders and provide
info to common database!
Information Feeder
Information Feeder
European/ Information Feeder
Global
Networks Information Feeder
DATAWAREHOUSE Maritime
ADMINISTRATOR Traffic Data
Development and Information Feeder
provision of services Information Feeder
Information Road Traffic
Data
users: Common Information Feeder
Authorities, Research, Traffic Data Warehouse
Universities, Information Feeder
Information Feeder
companies, etc.
Information Feeder
Työasema
Rail Traffic
Data
Information Feeder
Työasema Työasema
Työasema
Työasema
Information Feeder
Työasema
Työasema
Source: Finnish Marine Administration
Stimulating PSI Re-use: European progress, 24th November 2009 Stockholm
Two innovation cycles
Stimulating PSI Re-use: European progress, 24th November 2009 Stockholm
Some ideas created and evaluated
• More than 100 ideas
created in brainstorming
sessions
• Best ideas shortlisted and
developed further
• Innovation is often
combining existing
information in a new way
Stimulating PSI Re-use: European progress, 24th November 2009 Stockholm
Some good ideas
• Fog warning system in Italy
• ”Pulp Friction” slipperiness warning system
• Combining weather and traffic models in
Gothenburg Sweden
• Managing traffic chaos in Hamburg port
• Semi-public high-quality transport
• Car running on bio-waste
Stimulating PSI Re-use: European progress, 24th November 2009 Stockholm
Friction model for slipperiness warnings
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
1
181
271
361
451
541
631
721
811
901
991
91
1081
1171
1261
1351
1441
1531
1621
1711
1801
1891
1981
2071
2161
2251
2341
2431
2521
2611
2701
2791
2881
Stimulating PSI Re-use: European progress, 24th November 2009 Stockholm
Fog pilot products Private car drivers
Real-time fog alert maps
5130000
5120000
No fog
Transport companies
5110000
Low risk
5100000 Medium risk
DISSEMINATI
5090000 High risk
5080000
9999
5070000
Lison
ON
5060000
9999
Road management
5050000 Mogliano Veneto
5040000 9999
500 Treporti
Montegalda
5030000
1500 100
Villafranca Legnaro
5020000
80
5010000 120 Montagnana
Sorga
5000000
4990000 60 100
SantApollinare (Rovigo)
4980000
Castelnovo Bariano
Authorities
200
Pradon Porto Tolle
4970000
4960000
1620000 1640000 1660000 1680000 1700000 1720000 1740000 1760000 1780000 1800000 1820000
Gothenburg pilot
• Info from ordinary cars combined to weather model
Stimulating PSI Re-use: European progress, 24th November 2009 Stockholm
Case Hamburg Port
Port-related multimodal traffic modeling
Stimulating PSI Re-use: European progress, 24th November 2009 Stockholm
And how does the future of PSI
for weather and traffic services
look like?
Transport information systems are
getting more and more
complicated
Stimulating PSI Re-use: European progress, 24th November 2009 Stockholm
New V2I/I2V communication
I2I
V2I / I2V
Safe distance Side
and speed crash
Pre
crash
Rear detection
Blind spot
Collision
mitigation Lane change
assistant
Lane support
V2V
Stimulating PSI Re-use: European progress, 24th November 2009 Stockholm
Increasingly complex systems
Source: COMeSafety and COOPERS projects
Stimulating PSI Re-use: European progress, 24th November 2009 Stockholm
And we do not have to use
gasoline anymore
• You can make
electricity out of bio-
waste
• European innovation:
car running on
compressed air!
Stimulating PSI Re-use: European progress, 24th November 2009 Stockholm
First ROADIDEA conclusions
• Technology or delivery is no problem any
more
• More data and more complex data systems
are emerging and need development
• Access to data is the barrier for new
European-wide services
• Recommendation for a minimum data set that
would be available in all EU countries with
reasonable conditions
Stimulating PSI Re-use: European progress, 24th November 2009 Stockholm
www.roadidea.eu
• Plenty of documents available also on the
data issue
• You can write down your own ideas, too
• All ideas are welcome, whether silly or not!
Stimulating PSI Re-use: European progress, 24th November 2009 Stockholm
Thank you!
Now Q & A
Contact:
Pirkko.Saarikivi@foreca.com
Stimulating PSI Re-use: European progress, 24th November 2009 Stockholm
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