What Does CCC Retention Data Tell Us About Persistence by sanmelody

VIEWS: 13 PAGES: 29

									   The Integrated First-Year Initiative
    Conference, January 18, 2011


What Does CCC Retention Data
 Tell Us About Persistence?
                               Elizabeth B. Herr
     Director, Enrollment Management Research
Some General Concepts and Contexts
• First-year retention rates are correlated to
  selectivity.
  – More highly selective institutions have higher
    first-year retention rates.
• CCC’s most recent first-year retention rate
  was 66%, up from 63%.
  – The average first-year retention rate for schools
    with liberal admission standards is 62 %.
   Some Concepts and Contexts
• First-year attrition typically shows the highest
  percentage of loss, with each subsequent
  year’s increase in attrition around half that
  of the previous year.
• For the entering class of 2006, this meant:
  – First year retention:    65%
  – Second-year retention:   53%
  – Third-year retention:    48%
        Year-to-Year Retention for FT-FT Cohorts
                                                   Year-to-Year Retention
70%
                                                            65%         66%         65%         65%                66%
                                                                                                        63%
                  60%                            61%
      59%                     58%      58%
60%

                                                              52%         52%        53%                     52%
                                                                                                  50%
                                                  48%             47%         49%         48%
50%                47%                  47%         46%                                               47%
                               45%         45%
       43%              42%      42%

40%         37%
                                                                                                                            2nd Year
                                                                                                                            3rd Year
30%                                                                                                                         4th Year



20%



10%


                                                                                                              0%     0%0%
0%
       1999        2000        2001     2002      2003       2004         2005       2006        2007       2008    2009

                                                         Class Entering
 CCC First-year Retention Profile
• First-year retention has been examined in
  detail for the past few years.
• Predictive models can assess a student’s
  risk of not returning the next session or next
  year and are quite accurate.
• These models describe an at-risk profile for
  entering freshmen and point to areas of
  possible assistance or intervention.
 CCC First-year Retention Models
• These models are not perfect and not as
  detailed as we would like, but they give a good
  starting point.
• Typically, these models highlight the following
  areas as important for individual retention:
  –   Academic preparation
  –   Financial aid
  –   Connection to campus: housing or geography
  –   Academic interests: major or department
 CCC First-year Retention Models
• These entering student models are based on
  the student’s admissions data.
• As students progress through their first year,
  new data becomes available that can be added:
  –   First-session GPA
  –   Registered and completed hours
  –   Grades in key courses
  –   Changes in housing status
  –   Any other collected data
 CCC First-year Retention Profile
• The next few slides describe some of the
  factors that are important to first-year student
  retention.
• These factors do not propose any answers, but
  point to pieces of the retention puzzle that need
  to be investigated further.
• The data is based on the Fall 2009 freshmen
  cohort, but is representative of existing trends.
  CCC First-year Retention Profile
• Students who live on-campus in their first year are
  more likely to persist.
On-cam pus    Total                    N on-        F all-to-F all
Housing      Enrolled   Persisters   Persisters   Retention Rate
Yes           1286         891          395           69.3%
No             808         489          319           60.5%
              2094        1380          714           6 5 .9 %

• There were 2,094 first-time, full-time freshmen
  enrolled in Fall 2009.
• 1,380 of these freshmen returned in Fall 2010, for a
  retention rate of 65.9%.
  CCC First-year Retention Profile
• Students who live on-campus in their first year are
  more likely to persist.
On-cam pus    Total                    N on-        F all-to-F all
Housing      Enrolled   Persisters   Persisters   Retention Rate
Yes           1286         891          395           69.3%
No             808         489          319           60.5%
              2094        1380          714           6 5 .9 %

• There were 1,286 freshmen who lived on-campus.
• 891 of these freshmen returned in Fall 2010, for a
  retention rate of 69.3% for on-campus students.
  CCC First-year Retention Profile
• Students who live on-campus in their first year are
  more likely to persist.
On-cam pus    Total                    N on-        F all-to-F all
Housing      Enrolled   Persisters   Persisters   Retention Rate
Yes           1286         891          395           69.3%
No             808         489          319           60.5%
              2094        1380          714           6 5 .9 %

• 808 freshmen lived OFF-campus.
• 489 of these freshmen returned in Fall 2010, for a
  retention rate of 60.5% for OFF-campus students.
“Lost Kids”: Off-campus and Out-of-State

                    Total                    N on-        F all-to-F all
  Gender           Enrolled   Persisters   Persisters   Retention Rate
  Not "Lost Kid"    1982        1321          661           66.6%
  "Lost Kid"         112         59            53           52.7%
                    2094        1380          714           6 5 .9 %


       • Out-of-State freshmen who do not live on-
         campus are particularly at risk of not returning.
       • Only 52.7% of these 112 students returned for
         the Fall of 2010.
High School Grades and Retention
          Total                    N on-        F all-to-F all
 Grade   Enrolled   Persisters   Persisters   Retention Rate
   A       182         145           37           79.7%
  B+       233         182           51           78.1%
  A-       266         196           70           73.7%
   B       443         311          132           70.2%
  B-       351         229          122           65.2%
  C+       203         114           89           56.2%
  na       111         60            51           54.1%
   C       221         111          110           50.2%
   D       15           7            8            46.7%
  C-       69          25            44           36.2%
          2094        1380          714           6 5 .9 %

• Students with high school grades below a B are
  less likely to persist. (Cutoff is dotted line.)
      Financial Aid and Retention
• Aware that financial concerns are a deterrent to
  retention, CCC has increased its institutional grants.
• Data from the 2009 entering freshmen supports
  this initiative.
Institutional    Total                    N on-        F all-to-F all
Grant           Enrolled   Persisters   Persisters   Retention Rate
Yes               489         366          123           74.8%
No               1605        1014          591           63.2%
                 2094        1380          714           6 5 .9 %



 • 74.8% of students who received an institutional
   grant returned for the Fall of 2010.
  Financial Aid and Retention
• Conversely, losing financial support seriously
  affects students’ options.
Denied PLUS           Total                    N on-        F all-to-F all
Loan                 Enrolled   Persisters   Persisters   Retention Rate
Missing (No FAFSA)     372         257          115           69.1%
No                    1499        1025          474           68.4%
Yes                    223          98          125           43.9%
                      2094        1380          714           6 5 .9 %


 • Only 43.9% of those students whose parents
   were denied a PLUS loan were able to return.
         Geography and Retention
Geographic        Total                    N on-        F all-to-F all
Region           Enrolled   Persisters   Persisters   Retention Rate
Other Illinois     72          54            18           75.0%
International      25          18            7            72.0%
Other States       529         361          168           68.2%
Metro Area         764         505          259           66.1%
Midwest Core       321         209          112           65.1%
Chicago            383         233          150           60.8%
                  2094        1380          714           6 5 .9 %


    • Students from Chicago proper are least likely to
      persist, while students from outside the Midwest
      Core area and other areas in Illinois are more likely
      to persist.
            Ethnicity and Retention
                      Total                    N on-        F all-to-F all
Ethnicity            Enrolled   Persisters   Persisters   Retention Rate
White                 1174         838          335           71.4%
Non-Resident Alien      20          14            7           70.0%
Unknown/No Reponse     116          79           37           68.1%
Hispanic               230         151           79           65.7%
Asian                   58          36           22           62.1%
African-American       481         256          225           53.2%
Native American         15           6            9           40.0%
                      2094        1380          714           6 5 .9 %


      • African-American and Native American students are
        at the highest risk of attrition.
      • Persistence varies by department. Departmental
        data is forthcoming.
         Gender and Retention
              Total                    N on-        F all-to-F all
Gender       Enrolled   Persisters   Persisters   Retention Rate
Male           922         623          299           67.6%
Female        1172         757          415           64.6%
              2094        1380          714           6 5 .9 %


• Male students are slightly more likely to persist
  than female students.
• The gender balance and persistence varies by
  department. Departmental data is forthcoming.
Beyond Entering Student Data
• Entering student data gives an initial impression
  of new freshmen measured against the risks
  and successes of past freshmen.
   − These risk factors are being used to offer early
     support to students identified “at-risk.”
• Entering student data cannot fully asses talent,
  motivation, initiative, connection and
  engagement with campus and all those
  important intangibles.
Beyond Entering Student Data
• Entering student data also does cannot tell us
  how the student progresses through the first
  session: attendance, grades, and advisor and
  faculty contact and connections.
• While the “hard data” from admissions and
  academic records is both illustrative and
  predictive, it barely touches the surface.
• The goal is to dig deeper and find meaningful
  information that can lead to more differentiated
  analysis and intervention.
        Official Student Surveys
• One source of information are four official surveys that are
  conducted each year or every other year:
• New Student Survey.
   − This short survey inquires about student admissions and
     search process, and student needs and expectations,
     and is administered each summer during orientation.
• NSSE: National Survey of Student Engagement.
   − NSSE establishes the amount of time and effort
     students put into their studies and educational activities,
     and how the institution deploys its resources and
     organizes the curriculum and learning opportunities to
     get students to participate. This survey is administered
     every other year.
        Official Student Surveys
• SSI: Student Satisfaction Inventory.
   – This survey establishes the importance and satisfaction of
     students with CCC campus climate and services. The
     survey is administered to a cross-section of all students
     every other year.
• Graduating Student Survey.
   – This survey is administered to graduating students each
     May. It establishes student satisfaction levels with
     academic advising, services and facilities. While a very
     useful quality control tool, it does not inform about early
     student retention questions.
       Additional Student Surveys
• While the official survey data cannot always be linked back to
  individual persistence, it points to areas of concern to students
  and deterrents to persistence.
• Beside these four official surveys, a surprising array of other
  surveys exist at departmental, course, program and other
  levels.
• While these surveys yield important information, one
  statement I often hear is that “Columbia student are being
  surveyed to death.”
   – The results are duplication of effort, low response rates and
     “survey fatigue.”
     Beyond Student Surveys
• Potential desirable outcomes of the current
  campus-wide retention initiatives:
   – Increased awareness of individual survey efforts.
   – Encouragement of possible collaboration and/or
     consolidation between units.
   – Increased sharing of data.
• Focus groups, panel discussions or other
  informal data efforts may round out the picture
  for many retention efforts.
            Early Alert Initiative
• Official surveys and ad hoc information gathering,
  while useful, do not substitute for a more systematic
  and consistent data gathering.
• The new Student Support System presented by Bill
  Friedman will allow for real-time tracking of
  important events for each student: attendance,
  advisor/faculty contact and academic alerts.
   – This effort will allow Columbia to identify, support and
     intervene with students who are struggling before they
     have left campus.
            Looking Ahead
• Retention is an subtle outcome that is the
  result of many efforts and initiatives.
• It demands continuous examination and
  discussion of the impact of the different facets
  of the chosen approach.
• Continuous data-driven mid-course corrections
  to ensure that student needs are being met.

     • It takes a campus to retain a student!
     Managing Retention Change
Vision   Skills   Incentives   Resources       Action Plan        Change



         Skills   Incentives   Resources       Action Plan       Confusion



Vision            Incentives   Resources       Action Plan        Anxiety



Vision   Skills                Resources        Action Plan       Gradual
                                                                  Change


Vision   Skills   Incentives                    Action Plan     Frustration


                                                                   False
Vision   Skills   Incentives   Resources                           Starts


                                           Based on research by Dr. Mary B.
                                                                 Lippitt, ND
        Questions?

                          Elizabeth B. Herr
Director, Enrollment Management Research
       ebherr@colum.edu - 312-369-7451

								
To top