This report was created for global strategic planners who cannot be content with traditional methods of segmenting world markets. With the advent of a “borderless world”, cities become a more important criteria in prioritizing markets, as opposed to regions, continents, or countries. This report covers the top 2000 cities in over 200 countries. It does so by reporting the estimated market size (in terms of latent demand) for each major city of the world. It then ranks these cities and reports them in terms of their size as a percent of the country where they are located, their geographic region (e.g. Africa, Asia, Europe, Middle East, North America, Latin America), and the total world market.
In performing various economic analyses for its clients, I have been occasionally asked to investigate the market potential for various products and services across cities. The purpose of the studies is to understand the density of demand within a country and the extent to which a city might be used as a point of distribution within its region. From an economic perspective, however, a city does not represent a population within rigid geographical boundaries. To an economist or strategic planner, a city represents an area of dominant influence over markets in adjacent areas. This influence varies from one industry to another, but also from one period of time to another.
In what follows, I summarize the economic potential for the world's major cities for "manufacturing soft drinks and artificially carbonated waters" for the year 2011. The goal of this report is to report my findings on the real economic potential, or what an economist calls the latent demand, represented by a city when defined as an area of dominant influence. The reader needs to realize that latent demand may or may not represent real sales. For many items, latent demand is clearly observable in sales, as in the case for food or housing items. Consider, however, the category "satellite launch vehicles"
The 2011 Report on Manufacturing Soft Drinks and Artificially Carbonated Waters: World Market Segmentation by City by Philip M. Parker, Ph.D. Chaired Professor of Management Science INSEAD (Singapore and Fontainebleau, France) www.icongrouponline.com ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc. ii COPYRIGHT NOTICE 00050659-1G All of ICON Group International, Inc. publications are copyrighted. Copying our publications in whole or in part, for whatever reason, is a violation of copyrights laws and can lead to penalties and fines. Should you want to copy tables, graphs or other materials from our publications, please contact us to request permission. ICON Group International, Inc. often grants permission for very limited reproduction of our publications for internal use, press releases, and academic research. Such reproduction requires, however, confirmed permission from ICON Group International, Inc. Please read the full copyright notice, disclaimer, and user agreement provisions at the end of this report. IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER Neither ICON Group International, Inc. nor its employees can be held accountable for the use and subsequent actions of the user of the information provided in this publication. Great efforts have been made to ensure the accuracy of the data, but we can not guarantee, given the volume of information, accuracy. Since the information given in this report is forward-looking, the reader should read the disclaimer statement and user agreement provisions at the end of this report. www.icongrouponline.com ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc. iii About the Author Dr. Philip M. Parker is the Eli Lilly Chaired Professor of Innovation, Business and Society at INSEAD where he has taught courses on global competitive strategy since 1988. He has also taught courses at MIT, Stanford University, Harvard University, UCLA, UCSD, and the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. Professor Parker is the author of six books on the economic convergence of nations. These books introduce the notion of “physioeconomics” which foresees a lack of global convergence in economic behaviors due to physiological and physiographic forces. His latest book is "Physioeconomics: The Basis for Long-Run Economic Growth" (MIT Press 2000). He has also published numerous articles in academic journals, including, the Rand Journal of Economics, Marketing Science, the Journal of International Business Studies, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, the International Journal of Forecasting, the European Management Journal, the European Journal of Operational Research, the Journal of Marketing, the International Journal of Research in Marketing, and the Journal of Marketing Research. He is also on the editorial boards of several academic journals. Dr. Parker received his Ph.D. in Business Economics from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania and has Masters degrees in Finance and Banking (University of Aix-Marseille) and Managerial Economics (Wharton). His undergraduate degrees are in mathematics, biology and economics (minor in aeronautical engineering). He has consulted and/or taught courses in Africa, the Middle East, Asia, Latin America, North America and Europe. About this Series This series was created for international firms who rely on foreign markets for a substantial portion of their business or who might be threatened by international competition. The estimates given in this report were created using a methodology developed by and implemented under the direct supervision of Professor Philip M. Parker, the Eli Lilly Chaired Professor of Innovation, Business and Society, at INSEAD. The methodology relies on historical figures across countries. Reported figures should be seen as estimates of past and future levels of latent demand. Acknowledgements Some of the methodologies and research approaches used in this report have benefited from the R&D Committee at INSEAD, whose research support is gratefully acknowledged. www.icongrouponline.com ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc. iv About Icon Group International, Inc. Icon Group International, Inc.’s primary mission is to assist managers with their international information needs using forward-looking economic analysis. Icon Group has field offices in San Diego, Paris, Singapore, Hong Kong, and Lomé, Togo (West Africa). Icon Group has published hundreds of multi-client databases and global/regional market data, industry, and country publications. Global/Regional Management Studies: Summarizing over 210 countries, management studies are generally organized into regional volumes and cover key management functions. 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Customer Service 9606 Tierra Grande St., Suite 205 San Diego, CA 92126 USA Fax: 858-635-9414 Email: email@example.com URL: www.icongrouponline.com Note: as statements and statistics in this report are forward-looking, the reader needs to read the last chapter for disclaimers and user agreement provisions. www.icongrouponline.com ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc. Contents v Table of Contents 1 INTRODUCTION & METHODOLOGY 11 1.1 Overview and Definitions 11 1.2 Market Potential Estimation Methodology 11 1.2.1 Overview 11 1.2.2 What is Latent Demand and the P.I.E.? 12 1.2.3 The Methodology 12 184.108.40.206 Step 1. Product Definition and Data Collection 14 220.127.116.11 Step 2. Filtering and Smoothing 19 18.104.22.168 Step 3. Filling in Missing Values 19 22.214.171.124 Step 4. Varying Parameter, Non-linear Estimation 20 126.96.36.199 Step 5. Fixed-Parameter Linear Estimation 20 188.8.131.52 Step 6. Aggregation and Benchmarking 21 2 USING THE DATA 22 3 CITY SEGMENTS RANKED BY MARKET SIZE 23 3.1 Top 15 Markets 23 3.2 Markets 16 to 30 24 3.3 Remaining Cities by Market Rank 25 4 CITY SEGMENTS IN ALPHABETICAL ORDER 128 4.1 A: from Aalborg to Az Zawiyah 128 4.2 B: from Bacolod to Bydgoszcz 135 4.3 C: from Caaguazu to Cyangugu 143 4.4 D: from Da Nang to Dzhizak 151 4.5 E: from East London to Esteli 155 4.6 F: from Fagatogo to Funchal 157 4.7 G: from Gabes to Gyumri 160 4.8 H: from Hachinohe to Hyderabad 164 4.9 I: from Iasi to Izmir 168 4.10 J: from Jaboatao to Jyvaskyla 171 4.11 K: from Kabul to Kzyl-Orda 173 4.12 L: from La Ceiba to Lyon 181 4.13 M: from Macae to Mzuzu 186 4.14 N: from Nacala to Nzerekore 196 4.15 O: from Oaklahoma City to Oyem 201 4.16 Ö: from Örebro to Örebro 203 4.17 P: from Pago Pago to Pyuthan 204 4.18 Q: from Qandahar to Quito 210 4.19 R: from Rabat to Rustavi 211 4.20 S: from S. Luis Potosi to Szombathely 214 4.21 T: from Tabligbo to Tyre 226 4.22 U: from Uberaba to Utulei 233 4.23 V: from Vacoas-Phoenix to Vukovar 235 4.24 W: from Wadi Medani to Wuhan 238 4.25 X: from Xalapa to Xi'an 239 4.26 Y: from Yamagata to Yungkang 240 4.27 Z: from Zadar to Zvishavane 241 5 CITY SEGMENTS RANKED BY COUNTRY 242 5.1 Afghanistan 242 5.2 Albania 242 www.icongrouponline.com ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc. Contents vi 5.3 Algeria 243 5.4 American Samoa 243 5.5 Andorra 243 5.6 Angola 244 5.7 Antigua and Barbuda 244 5.8 Argentina 245 5.9 Armenia 246 5.10 Aruba 246 5.11 Australia 247 5.12 Austria 247 5.13 Azerbaijan 248 5.14 Bahrain 248 5.15 Bangladesh 249 5.16 Barbados 249 5.17 Belarus 250 5.18 Belgium 250 5.19 Belize 251 5.20 Benin 251 5.21 Bermuda 251 5.22 Bhutan 252 5.23 Bolivia 252 5.24 Bosnia and Herzegovina 252 5.25 Botswana 253 5.26 Brazil 254 5.27 Brunei 259 5.28 Bulgaria 259 5.29 Burkina Faso 260 5.30 Burma 260 5.31 Burundi 260 5.32 Cambodia 261 5.33 Cameroon 261 5.34 Canada 262 5.35 Cape Verde 262 5.36 Central African Republic 263 5.37 Chad 263 5.38 Chile 264 5.39 China 264 5.40 Christmas Island 265 5.41 Colombia 265 5.42 Comoros 265 5.43 Congo (formerly Zaire) 266 5.44 Cook Islands 266 5.45 Costa Rica 266 5.46 Cote d'Ivoire 267 5.47 Croatia 267 5.48 Cuba 268 5.49 Cyprus 268 5.50 Czech Republic 268 5.51 Denmark 269 5.52 Djibouti 269 5.53 Dominica 269 5.54 Dominican Republic 270 5.55 Ecuador 270 www.icongrouponline.com ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc. Contents vii 5.56 Egypt 271 5.57 El Salvador 271 5.58 Equatorial Guinea 271 5.59 Estonia 272 5.60 Ethiopia 272 5.61 Fiji 272 5.62 Finland 273 5.63 France 273 5.64 French Guiana 274 5.65 French Polynesia 274 5.66 Gabon 274 5.67 Georgia 275 5.68 Germany 275 5.69 Ghana 276 5.70 Greece 276 5.71 Greenland 277 5.72 Grenada 277 5.73 Guadeloupe 278 5.74 Guam 278 5.75 Guatemala 278 5.76 Guinea 279 5.77 Guinea-Bissau 279 5.78 Guyana 279 5.79 Haiti 280 5.80 Honduras 280 5.81 Hong Kong 280 5.82 Hungary 281 5.83 Iceland 281 5.84 India 282 5.85 Indonesia 283 5.86 Iran 284 5.87 Iraq 284 5.88 Ireland 285 5.89 Israel 285 5.90 Italy 286 5.91 Jamaica 286 5.92 Japan 287 5.93 Jordan 289 5.94 Kazakhstan 290 5.95 Kenya 290 5.96 Kiribati 291 5.97 Kuwait 291 5.98 Kyrgyzstan 291 5.99 Laos 292 5.100 Latvia 292 5.101 Lebanon 292 5.102 Lesotho 293 5.103 Liberia 293 5.104 Libya 293 5.105 Liechtenstein 294 5.106 Lithuania 294 5.107 Luxembourg 294 5.108 Macau 295 www.icongrouponline.com ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc. Contents viii 5.109 Madagascar 295 5.110 Malawi 295 5.111 Malaysia 296 5.112 Maldives 296 5.113 Mali 297 5.114 Malta 297 5.115 Marshall Islands 297 5.116 Martinique 298 5.117 Mauritania 298 5.118 Mauritius 298 5.119 Mexico 299 5.120 Micronesia Federation 300 5.121 Moldova 300 5.122 Monaco 300 5.123 Mongolia 300 5.124 Morocco 301 5.125 Mozambique 301 5.126 Namibia 301 5.127 Nauru 302 5.128 Nepal 302 5.129 New Caledonia 302 5.130 New Zealand 303 5.131 Nicaragua 303 5.132 Niger 304 5.133 Nigeria 304 5.134 Niue 304 5.135 Norfolk
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