The 2011 Report on Manufacturing Snack Foods Excluding Roasted Nuts and Peanut Butter: World Market Segmentation by City by ICONGroup


This report was created for global strategic planners who cannot be content with traditional methods of segmenting world markets. With the advent of a “borderless world”, cities become a more important criteria in prioritizing markets, as opposed to regions, continents, or countries. This report covers the top 2000 cities in over 200 countries. It does so by reporting the estimated market size (in terms of latent demand) for each major city of the world. It then ranks these cities and reports them in terms of their size as a percent of the country where they are located, their geographic region (e.g. Africa, Asia, Europe, Middle East, North America, Latin America), and the total world market.

In performing various economic analyses for its clients, I have been occasionally asked to investigate the market potential for various products and services across cities. The purpose of the studies is to understand the density of demand within a country and the extent to which a city might be used as a point of distribution within its region. From an economic perspective, however, a city does not represent a population within rigid geographical boundaries. To an economist or strategic planner, a city represents an area of dominant influence over markets in adjacent areas. This influence varies from one industry to another, but also from one period of time to another.

In what follows, I summarize the economic potential for the world's major cities for "manufacturing snack foods excluding roasted nuts and peanut butter" for the year 2011. The goal of this report is to report my findings on the real economic potential, or what an economist calls the latent demand, represented by a city when defined as an area of dominant influence. The reader needs to realize that latent demand may or may not represent real sales. For many items, latent demand is clearly observable in sales, as in the case for food or housing items. Consider, however, the category "satellite launch veh

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									 The 2011 Report on Manufacturing
Snack Foods Excluding Roasted Nuts
                and Peanut Butter:
World Market Segmentation by City

                              Philip M. Parker, Ph.D.
                      Chaired Professor of Management Science
                    INSEAD (Singapore and Fontainebleau, France)                             ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc.

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statement and user agreement provisions at the end of this report.                                 ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc.

                                        About the Author
Dr. Philip M. Parker is the Eli Lilly Chaired Professor of Innovation, Business and Society at INSEAD where he has
taught courses on global competitive strategy since 1988. He has also taught courses at MIT, Stanford University,
Harvard University, UCLA, UCSD, and the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. Professor Parker is
the author of six books on the economic convergence of nations. These books introduce the notion of
“physioeconomics” which foresees a lack of global convergence in economic behaviors due to physiological and
physiographic forces. His latest book is "Physioeconomics: The Basis for Long-Run Economic Growth" (MIT Press
2000). He has also published numerous articles in academic journals, including, the Rand Journal of Economics,
Marketing Science, the Journal of International Business Studies, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, the
International Journal of Forecasting, the European Management Journal, the European Journal of Operational
Research, the Journal of Marketing, the International Journal of Research in Marketing, and the Journal of
Marketing Research. He is also on the editorial boards of several academic journals.

Dr. Parker received his Ph.D. in Business Economics from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania
and has Masters degrees in Finance and Banking (University of Aix-Marseille) and Managerial Economics
(Wharton). His undergraduate degrees are in mathematics, biology and economics (minor in aeronautical
engineering). He has consulted and/or taught courses in Africa, the Middle East, Asia, Latin America, North America
and Europe.

                                         About this Series
This series was created for international firms who rely on foreign markets for a substantial portion of their business
or who might be threatened by international competition. The estimates given in this report were created using a
methodology developed by and implemented under the direct supervision of Professor Philip M. Parker, the Eli Lilly
Chaired Professor of Innovation, Business and Society, at INSEAD. The methodology relies on historical figures
across countries. Reported figures should be seen as estimates of past and future levels of latent demand.

Some of the methodologies and research approaches used in this report have benefited from the R&D Committee at
INSEAD, whose research support is gratefully acknowledged.                                                     ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc.

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Note: as statements and statistics in this report are forward-looking, the reader needs to read the
last chapter for disclaimers and user agreement provisions.                                                      ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc.
                                                                                         Contents         v

Table of Contents
1     INTRODUCTION & METHODOLOGY                                                                     11
    1.1     Overview and Definitions                                                                 11
    1.2     Market Potential Estimation Methodology                                                  11
       1.2.1    Overview                                                                             11
       1.2.2    What is Latent Demand and the P.I.E.?                                                12
       1.2.3    The Methodology                                                                      12
    Step 1. Product Definition and Data Collection                                  14
    Step 2. Filtering and Smoothing                                                 16
    Step 3. Filling in Missing Values                                               16
    Step 4. Varying Parameter, Non-linear Estimation                                16
    Step 5. Fixed-Parameter Linear Estimation                                       17
    Step 6. Aggregation and Benchmarking                                            17
2     USING THE DATA                                                                                 18
3     CITY SEGMENTS RANKED BY MARKET SIZE                                                            19
    3.1    Top 15 Markets                                                                            19
    3.2    Markets 16 to 30                                                                          20
    3.3    Remaining Cities by Market Rank                                                           21
4     CITY SEGMENTS IN ALPHABETICAL ORDER                                                           124
    4.1    A: from Aalborg to Az Zawiyah                                                            124
    4.2    B: from Bacolod to Bydgoszcz                                                             131
    4.3    C: from Caaguazu to Cyangugu                                                             139
    4.4    D: from Da Nang to Dzhizak                                                               147
    4.5    E: from East London to Esteli                                                            151
    4.6    F: from Fagatogo to Funchal                                                              153
    4.7    G: from Gabes to Gyumri                                                                  156
    4.8    H: from Hachinohe to Hyderabad                                                           160
    4.9    I: from Iasi to Izmir                                                                    164
    4.10   J: from Jaboatao to Jyvaskyla                                                            167
    4.11   K: from Kabul to Kzyl-Orda                                                               169
    4.12   L: from La Ceiba to Lyon                                                                 177
    4.13   M: from Macae to Mzuzu                                                                   182
    4.14   N: from Nacala to Nzerekore                                                              192
    4.15   O: from Oaklahoma City to Oyem                                                           197
    4.16   Ö: from Örebro to Örebro                                                                 199
    4.17   P: from Pago Pago to Pyuthan                                                             200
    4.18   Q: from Qandahar to Quito                                                                206
    4.19   R: from Rabat to Rustavi                                                                 207
    4.20   S: from S. Luis Potosi to Szombathely                                                    210
    4.21   T: from Tabligbo to Tyre                                                                 222
    4.22   U: from Uberaba to Utulei                                                                229
    4.23   V: from Vacoas-Phoenix to Vukovar                                                        231
    4.24   W: from Wadi Medani to Wuhan                                                             234
    4.25   X: from Xalapa to Xi'an                                                                  235
    4.26   Y: from Yamagata to Yungkang                                                             236
    4.27   Z: from Zadar to Zvishavane                                                              237
5     CITY SEGMENTS RANKED BY COUNTRY                                                               238
    5.1    Afghanistan                                                                              238
    5.2    Albania                                                                                  238                                                 ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc.
                                                     Contents         vi

  5.3    Algeria                                                239
  5.4    American Samoa                                         239
  5.5    Andorra                                                239
  5.6    Angola                                                 240
  5.7    Antigua and Barbuda                                    240
  5.8    Argentina                                              241
  5.9    Armenia                                                242
  5.10   Aruba                                                  242
  5.11   Australia                                              243
  5.12   Austria                                                243
  5.13   Azerbaijan                                             244
  5.14   Bahrain                                                244
  5.15   Bangladesh                                             245
  5.16   Barbados                                               245
  5.17   Belarus                                                246
  5.18   Belgium                                                246
  5.19   Belize                                                 247
  5.20   Benin                                                  247
  5.21   Bermuda                                                247
  5.22   Bhutan                                                 248
  5.23   Bolivia                                                248
  5.24   Bosnia and Herzegovina                                 248
  5.25   Botswana                                               249
  5.26   Brazil                                                 250
  5.27   Brunei                                                 255
  5.28   Bulgaria                                               255
  5.29   Burkina Faso                                           256
  5.30   Burma                                                  256
  5.31   Burundi                                                256
  5.32   Cambodia                                               257
  5.33   Cameroon                                               257
  5.34   Canada                                                 258
  5.35   Cape Verde                                             258
  5.36   Central African Republic                               259
  5.37   Chad                                                   259
  5.38   Chile                                                  260
  5.39   China                                                  260
  5.40   Christmas Island                                       261
  5.41   Colombia                                               261
  5.42   Comoros                                                261
  5.43   Congo (formerly Zaire)                                 262
  5.44   Cook Islands                                           262
  5.45   Costa Rica                                             262
  5.46   Cote d'Ivoire                                          263
  5.47   Croatia                                                263
  5.48   Cuba                                                   264
  5.49   Cyprus                                                 264
  5.50   Czech Republic                                         265
  5.51   Denmark                                                265
  5.52   Djibouti                                               266
  5.53   Dominica                                               266
  5.54   Dominican Republic                                     266
  5.55   Ecuador                                                267             ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc.
                                               Contents         vii

  5.56    Egypt                                           267
  5.57    El Salvador                                     268
  5.58    Equatorial Guinea                               268
  5.59    Estonia                                         268
  5.60    Ethiopia                                        269
  5.61    Fiji                                            269
  5.62    Finland                                         270
  5.63    France                                          270
  5.64    French Guiana                                   271
  5.65    French Polynesia                                271
  5.66    Gabon                                           271
  5.67    Georgia                                         272
  5.68    Germany                                         272
  5.69    Ghana                                           273
  5.70    Greece                                          273
  5.71    Greenland                                       274
  5.72    Grenada                                         274
  5.73    Guadeloupe                                      275
  5.74    Guam                                            275
  5.75    Guatemala                                       275
  5.76    Guinea                                          276
  5.77    Guinea-Bissau                                   276
  5.78    Guyana                                          276
  5.79    Haiti                                           277
  5.80    Honduras                                        277
  5.81    Hong Kong                                       277
  5.82    Hungary                                         278
  5.83    Iceland                                         278
  5.84    India                                           279
  5.85    Indonesia                                       280
  5.86    Iran                                            281
  5.87    Iraq                                            281
  5.88    Ireland                                         282
  5.89    Israel                                          282
  5.90    Italy                                           283
  5.91    Jamaica                                         283
  5.92    Japan                                           284
  5.93    Jordan                                          287
  5.94    Kazakhstan                                      287
  5.95    Kenya                                           288
  5.96    Kiribati                                        288
  5.97    Kuwait                                          288
  5.98    Kyrgyzstan                                      289
  5.99    Laos                                            289
  5.100   Latvia                                          289
  5.101   Lebanon                                         290
  5.102   Lesotho                                         290
  5.103   Liberia                                         290
  5.104   Libya                                           291
  5.105   Liechtenstein                                   291
  5.106   Lithuania                                       291
  5.107   Luxembourg                                      292
  5.108   Macau                                           292       ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc.
                                                   Contents         viii

  5.109   Madagascar                                          292
  5.110   Malawi                                              293
  5.111   Malaysia                                            293
  5.112   Maldives                                            294
  5.113   Mali                                                294
  5.114   Malta                                               294
  5.115   Marshall Islands                                    295
  5.116   Martinique                                          295
  5.117   Mauritania                                          295
  5.118   Mauritius                                           296
  5.119   Mexico                                              297
  5.120   Micronesia Federation                               298
  5.121   Moldova                                             298
  5.122   Monaco                                              298
  5.123   Mongolia                                            299
  5.124   Morocco                                             299
  5.125   Mozambique                                          300
  5.126   Namibia                                             300
  5.127   Nauru                                               300
  5.128   Nepal                                               301
  5.129   New Caledonia                                       301
  5.130   New Zealand                                         302
  5.131   Nicaragua                                           302
  5.132   Niger                                               303
  5.133   Nigeria                                       
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