This report was created for global strategic planners who cannot be content with traditional methods of segmenting world markets. With the advent of a “borderless world”, cities become a more important criteria in prioritizing markets, as opposed to regions, continents, or countries. This report covers the top 2000 cities in over 200 countries. It does so by reporting the estimated market size (in terms of latent demand) for each major city of the world. It then ranks these cities and reports them in terms of their size as a percent of the country where they are located, their geographic region (e.g. Africa, Asia, Europe, Middle East, North America, Latin America), and the total world market.
In performing various economic analyses for its clients, I have been occasionally asked to investigate the market potential for various products and services across cities. The purpose of the studies is to understand the density of demand within a country and the extent to which a city might be used as a point of distribution within its region. From an economic perspective, however, a city does not represent a population within rigid geographical boundaries. To an economist or strategic planner, a city represents an area of dominant influence over markets in adjacent areas. This influence varies from one industry to another, but also from one period of time to another.
In what follows, I summarize the economic potential for the world's major cities for "manufacturing snack foods excluding roasted nuts and peanut butter" for the year 2011. The goal of this report is to report my findings on the real economic potential, or what an economist calls the latent demand, represented by a city when defined as an area of dominant influence. The reader needs to realize that latent demand may or may not represent real sales. For many items, latent demand is clearly observable in sales, as in the case for food or housing items. Consider, however, the category "satellite launch veh
The 2011 Report on Manufacturing Snack Foods Excluding Roasted Nuts and Peanut Butter: World Market Segmentation by City by Philip M. Parker, Ph.D. Chaired Professor of Management Science INSEAD (Singapore and Fontainebleau, France) www.icongrouponline.com ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc. ii COPYRIGHT NOTICE 00050656-7G All of ICON Group International, Inc. publications are copyrighted. Copying our publications in whole or in part, for whatever reason, is a violation of copyrights laws and can lead to penalties and fines. Should you want to copy tables, graphs or other materials from our publications, please contact us to request permission. ICON Group International, Inc. often grants permission for very limited reproduction of our publications for internal use, press releases, and academic research. Such reproduction requires, however, confirmed permission from ICON Group International, Inc. Please read the full copyright notice, disclaimer, and user agreement provisions at the end of this report. IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER Neither ICON Group International, Inc. nor its employees can be held accountable for the use and subsequent actions of the user of the information provided in this publication. Great efforts have been made to ensure the accuracy of the data, but we can not guarantee, given the volume of information, accuracy. Since the information given in this report is forward-looking, the reader should read the disclaimer statement and user agreement provisions at the end of this report. www.icongrouponline.com ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc. iii About the Author Dr. Philip M. Parker is the Eli Lilly Chaired Professor of Innovation, Business and Society at INSEAD where he has taught courses on global competitive strategy since 1988. He has also taught courses at MIT, Stanford University, Harvard University, UCLA, UCSD, and the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. Professor Parker is the author of six books on the economic convergence of nations. These books introduce the notion of “physioeconomics” which foresees a lack of global convergence in economic behaviors due to physiological and physiographic forces. His latest book is "Physioeconomics: The Basis for Long-Run Economic Growth" (MIT Press 2000). He has also published numerous articles in academic journals, including, the Rand Journal of Economics, Marketing Science, the Journal of International Business Studies, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, the International Journal of Forecasting, the European Management Journal, the European Journal of Operational Research, the Journal of Marketing, the International Journal of Research in Marketing, and the Journal of Marketing Research. He is also on the editorial boards of several academic journals. Dr. Parker received his Ph.D. in Business Economics from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania and has Masters degrees in Finance and Banking (University of Aix-Marseille) and Managerial Economics (Wharton). His undergraduate degrees are in mathematics, biology and economics (minor in aeronautical engineering). He has consulted and/or taught courses in Africa, the Middle East, Asia, Latin America, North America and Europe. About this Series This series was created for international firms who rely on foreign markets for a substantial portion of their business or who might be threatened by international competition. The estimates given in this report were created using a methodology developed by and implemented under the direct supervision of Professor Philip M. Parker, the Eli Lilly Chaired Professor of Innovation, Business and Society, at INSEAD. The methodology relies on historical figures across countries. Reported figures should be seen as estimates of past and future levels of latent demand. Acknowledgements Some of the methodologies and research approaches used in this report have benefited from the R&D Committee at INSEAD, whose research support is gratefully acknowledged. www.icongrouponline.com ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc. iv About Icon Group International, Inc. Icon Group International, Inc.’s primary mission is to assist managers with their international information needs using forward-looking economic analysis. Icon Group has field offices in San Diego, Paris, Singapore, Hong Kong, and Lomé, Togo (West Africa). Icon Group has published hundreds of multi-client databases and global/regional market data, industry, and country publications. Global/Regional Management Studies: Summarizing over 210 countries, management studies are generally organized into regional volumes and cover key management functions. 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Customer Service 9606 Tierra Grande St., Suite 205 San Diego, CA 92126 USA Fax: 858-635-9414 Email: email@example.com URL: www.icongrouponline.com Note: as statements and statistics in this report are forward-looking, the reader needs to read the last chapter for disclaimers and user agreement provisions. www.icongrouponline.com ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc. Contents v Table of Contents 1 INTRODUCTION & METHODOLOGY 11 1.1 Overview and Definitions 11 1.2 Market Potential Estimation Methodology 11 1.2.1 Overview 11 1.2.2 What is Latent Demand and the P.I.E.? 12 1.2.3 The Methodology 12 220.127.116.11 Step 1. Product Definition and Data Collection 14 18.104.22.168 Step 2. Filtering and Smoothing 16 22.214.171.124 Step 3. Filling in Missing Values 16 126.96.36.199 Step 4. Varying Parameter, Non-linear Estimation 16 188.8.131.52 Step 5. Fixed-Parameter Linear Estimation 17 184.108.40.206 Step 6. Aggregation and Benchmarking 17 2 USING THE DATA 18 3 CITY SEGMENTS RANKED BY MARKET SIZE 19 3.1 Top 15 Markets 19 3.2 Markets 16 to 30 20 3.3 Remaining Cities by Market Rank 21 4 CITY SEGMENTS IN ALPHABETICAL ORDER 124 4.1 A: from Aalborg to Az Zawiyah 124 4.2 B: from Bacolod to Bydgoszcz 131 4.3 C: from Caaguazu to Cyangugu 139 4.4 D: from Da Nang to Dzhizak 147 4.5 E: from East London to Esteli 151 4.6 F: from Fagatogo to Funchal 153 4.7 G: from Gabes to Gyumri 156 4.8 H: from Hachinohe to Hyderabad 160 4.9 I: from Iasi to Izmir 164 4.10 J: from Jaboatao to Jyvaskyla 167 4.11 K: from Kabul to Kzyl-Orda 169 4.12 L: from La Ceiba to Lyon 177 4.13 M: from Macae to Mzuzu 182 4.14 N: from Nacala to Nzerekore 192 4.15 O: from Oaklahoma City to Oyem 197 4.16 Ö: from Örebro to Örebro 199 4.17 P: from Pago Pago to Pyuthan 200 4.18 Q: from Qandahar to Quito 206 4.19 R: from Rabat to Rustavi 207 4.20 S: from S. Luis Potosi to Szombathely 210 4.21 T: from Tabligbo to Tyre 222 4.22 U: from Uberaba to Utulei 229 4.23 V: from Vacoas-Phoenix to Vukovar 231 4.24 W: from Wadi Medani to Wuhan 234 4.25 X: from Xalapa to Xi'an 235 4.26 Y: from Yamagata to Yungkang 236 4.27 Z: from Zadar to Zvishavane 237 5 CITY SEGMENTS RANKED BY COUNTRY 238 5.1 Afghanistan 238 5.2 Albania 238 www.icongrouponline.com ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc. Contents vi 5.3 Algeria 239 5.4 American Samoa 239 5.5 Andorra 239 5.6 Angola 240 5.7 Antigua and Barbuda 240 5.8 Argentina 241 5.9 Armenia 242 5.10 Aruba 242 5.11 Australia 243 5.12 Austria 243 5.13 Azerbaijan 244 5.14 Bahrain 244 5.15 Bangladesh 245 5.16 Barbados 245 5.17 Belarus 246 5.18 Belgium 246 5.19 Belize 247 5.20 Benin 247 5.21 Bermuda 247 5.22 Bhutan 248 5.23 Bolivia 248 5.24 Bosnia and Herzegovina 248 5.25 Botswana 249 5.26 Brazil 250 5.27 Brunei 255 5.28 Bulgaria 255 5.29 Burkina Faso 256 5.30 Burma 256 5.31 Burundi 256 5.32 Cambodia 257 5.33 Cameroon 257 5.34 Canada 258 5.35 Cape Verde 258 5.36 Central African Republic 259 5.37 Chad 259 5.38 Chile 260 5.39 China 260 5.40 Christmas Island 261 5.41 Colombia 261 5.42 Comoros 261 5.43 Congo (formerly Zaire) 262 5.44 Cook Islands 262 5.45 Costa Rica 262 5.46 Cote d'Ivoire 263 5.47 Croatia 263 5.48 Cuba 264 5.49 Cyprus 264 5.50 Czech Republic 265 5.51 Denmark 265 5.52 Djibouti 266 5.53 Dominica 266 5.54 Dominican Republic 266 5.55 Ecuador 267 www.icongrouponline.com ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc. Contents vii 5.56 Egypt 267 5.57 El Salvador 268 5.58 Equatorial Guinea 268 5.59 Estonia 268 5.60 Ethiopia 269 5.61 Fiji 269 5.62 Finland 270 5.63 France 270 5.64 French Guiana 271 5.65 French Polynesia 271 5.66 Gabon 271 5.67 Georgia 272 5.68 Germany 272 5.69 Ghana 273 5.70 Greece 273 5.71 Greenland 274 5.72 Grenada 274 5.73 Guadeloupe 275 5.74 Guam 275 5.75 Guatemala 275 5.76 Guinea 276 5.77 Guinea-Bissau 276 5.78 Guyana 276 5.79 Haiti 277 5.80 Honduras 277 5.81 Hong Kong 277 5.82 Hungary 278 5.83 Iceland 278 5.84 India 279 5.85 Indonesia 280 5.86 Iran 281 5.87 Iraq 281 5.88 Ireland 282 5.89 Israel 282 5.90 Italy 283 5.91 Jamaica 283 5.92 Japan 284 5.93 Jordan 287 5.94 Kazakhstan 287 5.95 Kenya 288 5.96 Kiribati 288 5.97 Kuwait 288 5.98 Kyrgyzstan 289 5.99 Laos 289 5.100 Latvia 289 5.101 Lebanon 290 5.102 Lesotho 290 5.103 Liberia 290 5.104 Libya 291 5.105 Liechtenstein 291 5.106 Lithuania 291 5.107 Luxembourg 292 5.108 Macau 292 www.icongrouponline.com ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc. Contents viii 5.109 Madagascar 292 5.110 Malawi 293 5.111 Malaysia 293 5.112 Maldives 294 5.113 Mali 294 5.114 Malta 294 5.115 Marshall Islands 295 5.116 Martinique 295 5.117 Mauritania 295 5.118 Mauritius 296 5.119 Mexico 297 5.120 Micronesia Federation 298 5.121 Moldova 298 5.122 Monaco 298 5.123 Mongolia 299 5.124 Morocco 299 5.125 Mozambique 300 5.126 Namibia 300 5.127 Nauru 300 5.128 Nepal 301 5.129 New Caledonia 301 5.130 New Zealand 302 5.131 Nicaragua 302 5.132 Niger 303 5.133 Nigeria
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