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The 2011 Report on Manufacturing Small Firearms Ammunition: World Market Segmentation by City by ICONGroup

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This report was created for global strategic planners who cannot be content with traditional methods of segmenting world markets. With the advent of a “borderless world”, cities become a more important criteria in prioritizing markets, as opposed to regions, continents, or countries. This report covers the top 2000 cities in over 200 countries. It does so by reporting the estimated market size (in terms of latent demand) for each major city of the world. It then ranks these cities and reports them in terms of their size as a percent of the country where they are located, their geographic region (e.g. Africa, Asia, Europe, Middle East, North America, Latin America), and the total world market. In performing various economic analyses for its clients, I have been occasionally asked to investigate the market potential for various products and services across cities. The purpose of the studies is to understand the density of demand within a country and the extent to which a city might be used as a point of distribution within its region. From an economic perspective, however, a city does not represent a population within rigid geographical boundaries. To an economist or strategic planner, a city represents an area of dominant influence over markets in adjacent areas. This influence varies from one industry to another, but also from one period of time to another. In what follows, I summarize the economic potential for the world's major cities for "manufacturing small firearms ammunition" for the year 2011. The goal of this report is to report my findings on the real economic potential, or what an economist calls the latent demand, represented by a city when defined as an area of dominant influence. The reader needs to realize that latent demand may or may not represent real sales. For many items, latent demand is clearly observable in sales, as in the case for food or housing items. Consider, however, the category "satellite launch vehicles". Clearly, there are

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									   The 2011 Report on Manufacturing
        Small Firearms Ammunition:
  World Market Segmentation by City

                              Philip M. Parker, Ph.D.
                      Chaired Professor of Management Science
                    INSEAD (Singapore and Fontainebleau, France)                             ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc.

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Neither ICON Group International, Inc. nor its employees can be held accountable for
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statement and user agreement provisions at the end of this report.                                 ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc.

                                        About the Author
Dr. Philip M. Parker is the Eli Lilly Chaired Professor of Innovation, Business and Society at INSEAD where he has
taught courses on global competitive strategy since 1988. He has also taught courses at MIT, Stanford University,
Harvard University, UCLA, UCSD, and the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. Professor Parker is
the author of six books on the economic convergence of nations. These books introduce the notion of
“physioeconomics” which foresees a lack of global convergence in economic behaviors due to physiological and
physiographic forces. His latest book is "Physioeconomics: The Basis for Long-Run Economic Growth" (MIT Press
2000). He has also published numerous articles in academic journals, including, the Rand Journal of Economics,
Marketing Science, the Journal of International Business Studies, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, the
International Journal of Forecasting, the European Management Journal, the European Journal of Operational
Research, the Journal of Marketing, the International Journal of Research in Marketing, and the Journal of
Marketing Research. He is also on the editorial boards of several academic journals.

Dr. Parker received his Ph.D. in Business Economics from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania
and has Masters degrees in Finance and Banking (University of Aix-Marseille) and Managerial Economics
(Wharton). His undergraduate degrees are in mathematics, biology and economics (minor in aeronautical
engineering). He has consulted and/or taught courses in Africa, the Middle East, Asia, Latin America, North America
and Europe.

                                         About this Series
This series was created for international firms who rely on foreign markets for a substantial portion of their business
or who might be threatened by international competition. The estimates given in this report were created using a
methodology developed by and implemented under the direct supervision of Professor Philip M. Parker, the Eli Lilly
Chaired Professor of Innovation, Business and Society, at INSEAD. The methodology relies on historical figures
across countries. Reported figures should be seen as estimates of past and future levels of latent demand.

Some of the methodologies and research approaches used in this report have benefited from the R&D Committee at
INSEAD, whose research support is gratefully acknowledged.                                                     ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc.

                   About Icon Group International, Inc.
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over 2000 product/industry categories, these reports give the reader a concise summary of latent market forecasts,
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Some reports focus on a particular product and region (up to four regions per product), while others focus on a
product within a particular country.

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In addition to these reports, Icon Group publishes similar studies for other product categories, issue areas, regions of
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Note: as statements and statistics in this report are forward-looking, the reader needs to read the
last chapter for disclaimers and user agreement provisions.                                                      ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc.
                                                                                         Contents         v

Table of Contents
1     INTRODUCTION & METHODOLOGY                                                                     11
    1.1     Overview and Definitions                                                                 11
    1.2     Market Potential Estimation Methodology                                                  11
       1.2.1    Overview                                                                             11
       1.2.2    What is Latent Demand and the P.I.E.?                                                12
       1.2.3    The Methodology                                                                      12
    Step 1. Product Definition and Data Collection                                  14
    Step 2. Filtering and Smoothing                                                 16
    Step 3. Filling in Missing Values                                               17
    Step 4. Varying Parameter, Non-linear Estimation                                17
    Step 5. Fixed-Parameter Linear Estimation                                       17
    Step 6. Aggregation and Benchmarking                                            18
2     USING THE DATA                                                                                 19
3     CITY SEGMENTS RANKED BY MARKET SIZE                                                            20
    3.1    Top 15 Markets                                                                            20
    3.2    Markets 16 to 30                                                                          21
    3.3    Remaining Cities by Market Rank                                                           22
4     CITY SEGMENTS IN ALPHABETICAL ORDER                                                           125
    4.1    A: from Aalborg to Az Zawiyah                                                            125
    4.2    B: from Bacolod to Bydgoszcz                                                             132
    4.3    C: from Caaguazu to Cyangugu                                                             140
    4.4    D: from Da Nang to Dzhizak                                                               148
    4.5    E: from East London to Esteli                                                            152
    4.6    F: from Fagatogo to Funchal                                                              154
    4.7    G: from Gabes to Gyumri                                                                  157
    4.8    H: from Hachinohe to Hyderabad                                                           161
    4.9    I: from Iasi to Izmir                                                                    165
    4.10   J: from Jaboatao to Jyvaskyla                                                            168
    4.11   K: from Kabul to Kzyl-Orda                                                               170
    4.12   L: from La Ceiba to Lyon                                                                 178
    4.13   M: from Macae to Mzuzu                                                                   183
    4.14   N: from Nacala to Nzerekore                                                              193
    4.15   O: from Oaklahoma City to Oyem                                                           198
    4.16   Ö: from Örebro to Örebro                                                                 200
    4.17   P: from Pago Pago to Pyuthan                                                             201
    4.18   Q: from Qandahar to Quito                                                                207
    4.19   R: from Rabat to Rustavi                                                                 208
    4.20   S: from S. Luis Potosi to Szombathely                                                    211
    4.21   T: from Tabligbo to Tyre                                                                 223
    4.22   U: from Uberaba to Utulei                                                                230
    4.23   V: from Vacoas-Phoenix to Vukovar                                                        232
    4.24   W: from Wadi Medani to Wuhan                                                             235
    4.25   X: from Xalapa to Xi'an                                                                  236
    4.26   Y: from Yamagata to Yungkang                                                             237
    4.27   Z: from Zadar to Zvishavane                                                              238
5     CITY SEGMENTS RANKED BY COUNTRY                                                               239
    5.1    Afghanistan                                                                              239
    5.2    Albania                                                                                  239                                                 ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc.
                                                     Contents         vi

  5.3    Algeria                                                240
  5.4    American Samoa                                         240
  5.5    Andorra                                                240
  5.6    Angola                                                 241
  5.7    Antigua and Barbuda                                    241
  5.8    Argentina                                              242
  5.9    Armenia                                                243
  5.10   Aruba                                                  243
  5.11   Australia                                              244
  5.12   Austria                                                244
  5.13   Azerbaijan                                             245
  5.14   Bahrain                                                245
  5.15   Bangladesh                                             245
  5.16   Barbados                                               246
  5.17   Belarus                                                246
  5.18   Belgium                                                246
  5.19   Belize                                                 247
  5.20   Benin                                                  247
  5.21   Bermuda                                                247
  5.22   Bhutan                                                 248
  5.23   Bolivia                                                248
  5.24   Bosnia and Herzegovina                                 248
  5.25   Botswana                                               249
  5.26   Brazil                                                 250
  5.27   Brunei                                                 255
  5.28   Bulgaria                                               255
  5.29   Burkina Faso                                           256
  5.30   Burma                                                  256
  5.31   Burundi                                                256
  5.32   Cambodia                                               257
  5.33   Cameroon                                               257
  5.34   Canada                                                 257
  5.35   Cape Verde                                             258
  5.36   Central African Republic                               258
  5.37   Chad                                                   258
  5.38   Chile                                                  259
  5.39   China                                                  259
  5.40   Christmas Island                                       260
  5.41   Colombia                                               260
  5.42   Comoros                                                260
  5.43   Congo (formerly Zaire)                                 261
  5.44   Cook Islands                                           261
  5.45   Costa Rica                                             261
  5.46   Cote d'Ivoire                                          262
  5.47   Croatia                                                262
  5.48   Cuba                                                   262
  5.49   Cyprus                                                 263
  5.50   Czech Republic                                         263
  5.51   Denmark                                                263
  5.52   Djibouti                                               264
  5.53   Dominica                                               264
  5.54   Dominican Republic                                     264
  5.55   Ecuador                                                265             ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc.
                                               Contents         vii

  5.56    Egypt                                           265
  5.57    El Salvador                                     265
  5.58    Equatorial Guinea                               266
  5.59    Estonia                                         266
  5.60    Ethiopia                                        266
  5.61    Fiji                                            267
  5.62    Finland                                         267
  5.63    France                                          268
  5.64    French Guiana                                   268
  5.65    French Polynesia                                269
  5.66    Gabon                                           269
  5.67    Georgia                                         269
  5.68    Germany                                         270
  5.69    Ghana                                           270
  5.70    Greece                                          271
  5.71    Greenland                                       271
  5.72    Grenada                                         271
  5.73    Guadeloupe                                      272
  5.74    Guam                                            272
  5.75    Guatemala                                       272
  5.76    Guinea                                          273
  5.77    Guinea-Bissau                                   273
  5.78    Guyana                                          273
  5.79    Haiti                                           274
  5.80    Honduras                                        274
  5.81    Hong Kong                                       274
  5.82    Hungary                                         275
  5.83    Iceland                                         275
  5.84    India                                           276
  5.85    Indonesia                                       277
  5.86    Iran                                            278
  5.87    Iraq                                            278
  5.88    Ireland                                         279
  5.89    Israel                                          279
  5.90    Italy                                           280
  5.91    Jamaica                                         280
  5.92    Japan                                           281
  5.93    Jordan                                          283
  5.94    Kazakhstan                                      284
  5.95    Kenya                                           284
  5.96    Kiribati                                        285
  5.97    Kuwait                                          285
  5.98    Kyrgyzstan                                      285
  5.99    Laos                                            285
  5.100   Latvia                                          286
  5.101   Lebanon                                         286
  5.102   Lesotho                                         286
  5.103   Liberia                                         287
  5.104   Libya                                           287
  5.105   Liechtenstein                                   287
  5.106   Lithuania                                       288
  5.107   Luxembourg                                      288
  5.108   Macau                                           288       ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc.
                                                   Contents         viii

  5.109   Madagascar                                          289
  5.110   Malawi                                              289
  5.111   Malaysia                                            290
  5.112   Maldives                                            290
  5.113   Mali                                                291
  5.114   Malta                                               291
  5.115   Marshall Islands                                    291
  5.116   Martinique                                          292
  5.117   Mauritania                                          292
  5.118   Mauritius                                           292
  5.119   Mexico                                              293
  5.120   Micronesia Federation                               294
  5.121   Moldova                                             294
  5.122   Monaco                                              294
  5.123   Mongolia                                            294
  5.124   Morocco                                             295
  5.125   Mozambique                                          295
  5.126   Namibia                                             295
  5.127   Nauru                                               296
  5.128   Nepal                                               296
  5.129   New Caledonia                                       296
  5.130   New Zealand                                         297
  5.131   Nicaragua                                           297
  5.132   Niger                                               298
  5.133   Nigeria                                             298
  5.134   Niue                                                298
  5.135   Norfolk Island                                      299
  5.136   North Korea                                         299
  5.137   Norway                                              299
  5.138   Oman                                  
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