This report was created for global strategic planners who cannot be content with traditional methods of segmenting world markets. With the advent of a “borderless world”, cities become a more important criteria in prioritizing markets, as opposed to regions, continents, or countries. This report covers the top 2000 cities in over 200 countries. It does so by reporting the estimated market size (in terms of latent demand) for each major city of the world. It then ranks these cities and reports them in terms of their size as a percent of the country where they are located, their geographic region (e.g. Africa, Asia, Europe, Middle East, North America, Latin America), and the total world market.
In performing various economic analyses for its clients, I have been occasionally asked to investigate the market potential for various products and services across cities. The purpose of the studies is to understand the density of demand within a country and the extent to which a city might be used as a point of distribution within its region. From an economic perspective, however, a city does not represent a population within rigid geographical boundaries. To an economist or strategic planner, a city represents an area of dominant influence over markets in adjacent areas. This influence varies from one industry to another, but also from one period of time to another.
In what follows, I summarize the economic potential for the world's major cities for "manufacturing rubber products from natural and synthetic rubber excluding tires, hoses and belting, and molded, extruded, and lathe-cut rubber goods for mechanical applications" for the year 2011. The goal of this report is to report my findings on the real economic potential, or what an economist calls the latent demand, represented by a city when defined as an area of dominant influence. The reader needs to realize that latent demand may or may not represent real sales. For many items, latent demand is clearly observ
The 2011 Report on Manufacturing Rubber Products from Natural and Synthetic Rubber Excluding Tires, Hoses and Belting, and Molded, Extruded, and Lathe-Cut Rubber Goods for Mechanical Applications: World Market Segmentation by City by Philip M. Parker, Ph.D. Chaired Professor of Management Science INSEAD (Singapore and Fontainebleau, France) www.icongrouponline.com ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc. ii COPYRIGHT NOTICE 00050711-9G All of ICON Group International, Inc. publications are copyrighted. Copying our publications in whole or in part, for whatever reason, is a violation of copyrights laws and can lead to penalties and fines. Should you want to copy tables, graphs or other materials from our publications, please contact us to request permission. ICON Group International, Inc. often grants permission for very limited reproduction of our publications for internal use, press releases, and academic research. Such reproduction requires, however, confirmed permission from ICON Group International, Inc. Please read the full copyright notice, disclaimer, and user agreement provisions at the end of this report. IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER Neither ICON Group International, Inc. nor its employees can be held accountable for the use and subsequent actions of the user of the information provided in this publication. Great efforts have been made to ensure the accuracy of the data, but we can not guarantee, given the volume of information, accuracy. Since the information given in this report is forward-looking, the reader should read the disclaimer statement and user agreement provisions at the end of this report. www.icongrouponline.com ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc. iii About the Author Dr. Philip M. Parker is the Eli Lilly Chaired Professor of Innovation, Business and Society at INSEAD where he has taught courses on global competitive strategy since 1988. He has also taught courses at MIT, Stanford University, Harvard University, UCLA, UCSD, and the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. Professor Parker is the author of six books on the economic convergence of nations. These books introduce the notion of “physioeconomics” which foresees a lack of global convergence in economic behaviors due to physiological and physiographic forces. His latest book is "Physioeconomics: The Basis for Long-Run Economic Growth" (MIT Press 2000). He has also published numerous articles in academic journals, including, the Rand Journal of Economics, Marketing Science, the Journal of International Business Studies, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, the International Journal of Forecasting, the European Management Journal, the European Journal of Operational Research, the Journal of Marketing, the International Journal of Research in Marketing, and the Journal of Marketing Research. He is also on the editorial boards of several academic journals. Dr. Parker received his Ph.D. in Business Economics from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania and has Masters degrees in Finance and Banking (University of Aix-Marseille) and Managerial Economics (Wharton). His undergraduate degrees are in mathematics, biology and economics (minor in aeronautical engineering). He has consulted and/or taught courses in Africa, the Middle East, Asia, Latin America, North America and Europe. About this Series This series was created for international firms who rely on foreign markets for a substantial portion of their business or who might be threatened by international competition. The estimates given in this report were created using a methodology developed by and implemented under the direct supervision of Professor Philip M. Parker, the Eli Lilly Chaired Professor of Innovation, Business and Society, at INSEAD. The methodology relies on historical figures across countries. Reported figures should be seen as estimates of past and future levels of latent demand. Acknowledgements Some of the methodologies and research approaches used in this report have benefited from the R&D Committee at INSEAD, whose research support is gratefully acknowledged. www.icongrouponline.com ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc. iv About Icon Group International, Inc. Icon Group International, Inc.’s primary mission is to assist managers with their international information needs using forward-looking economic analysis. Icon Group has field offices in San Diego, Paris, Singapore, Hong Kong, and Lomé, Togo (West Africa). Icon Group has published hundreds of multi-client databases and global/regional market data, industry, and country publications. Global/Regional Management Studies: Summarizing over 210 countries, management studies are generally organized into regional volumes and cover key management functions. 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Covering over 190 countries, each study consists of forward-looking analysis, statistics, forecasts, and information of relevance to managers. The studies are continually updated to ensure that the reports have the most relevant information available. In addition to raw information, the reports provide relevant analyses which put a more general perspective on a country (seen in the context of relative performance vis-à-vis benchmarks). Industry & Trade Studies: Companies are racing to become more international, if not global in their strategies. For over 2000 product/industry categories, these reports give the reader a concise summary of latent market forecasts, pro-forma financials, import competition profiles, key references, and trends across 200 countries of the world. Some reports focus on a particular product and region (up to four regions per product), while others focus on a product within a particular country. Intranet Subscriptions: Icon Group International, Inc. now offers full intranet subscriptions which brings millions of dollars of high-end global market research to the manager’s personal computer. For more information, please contact Icon Group via our web site: www.icongrouponline.com, or please email: firstname.lastname@example.org. In addition to these reports, Icon Group publishes similar studies for other product categories, issue areas, regions of the world, countries, cities and states (in the case of the United States). If you wish to receive a report that is customized or addressing a particular issue, feel free to contact Icon Group: Icon Group International, Inc. Customer Service 9606 Tierra Grande St., Suite 205 San Diego, CA 92126 USA Fax: 858-635-9414 Email: email@example.com URL: www.icongrouponline.com Note: as statements and statistics in this report are forward-looking, the reader needs to read the last chapter for disclaimers and user agreement provisions. www.icongrouponline.com ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc. Contents v Table of Contents 1 INTRODUCTION & METHODOLOGY 11 1.1 Overview and Definitions 11 1.2 Market Potential Estimation Methodology 11 1.2.1 Overview 11 1.2.2 What is Latent Demand and the P.I.E.? 12 1.2.3 The Methodology 13 220.127.116.11 Step 1. Product Definition and Data Collection 14 18.104.22.168 Step 2. Filtering and Smoothing 20 22.214.171.124 Step 3. Filling in Missing Values 20 126.96.36.199 Step 4. Varying Parameter, Non-linear Estimation 21 188.8.131.52 Step 5. Fixed-Parameter Linear Estimation 21 184.108.40.206 Step 6. Aggregation and Benchmarking 21 2 USING THE DATA 22 3 CITY SEGMENTS RANKED BY MARKET SIZE 23 3.1 Top 15 Markets 23 3.2 Markets 16 to 30 24 3.3 Remaining Cities by Market Rank 25 4 CITY SEGMENTS IN ALPHABETICAL ORDER 128 4.1 A: from Aalborg to Az Zawiyah 128 4.2 B: from Bacolod to Bydgoszcz 135 4.3 C: from Caaguazu to Cyangugu 143 4.4 D: from Da Nang to Dzhizak 152 4.5 E: from East London to Esteli 156 4.6 F: from Fagatogo to Funchal 158 4.7 G: from Gabes to Gyumri 161 4.8 H: from Hachinohe to Hyderabad 165 4.9 I: from Iasi to Izmir 169 4.10 J: from Jaboatao to Jyvaskyla 172 4.11 K: from Kabul to Kzyl-Orda 175 4.12 L: from La Ceiba to Lyon 183 4.13 M: from Macae to Mzuzu 189 4.14 N: from Nacala to Nzerekore 199 4.15 O: from Oaklahoma City to Oyem 204 4.16 Ö: from Örebro to Örebro 206 4.17 P: from Pago Pago to Pyuthan 207 4.18 Q: from Qandahar to Quito 214 4.19 R: from Rabat to Rustavi 215 4.20 S: from S. Luis Potosi to Szombathely 218 4.21 T: from Tabligbo to Tyre 230 4.22 U: from Uberaba to Utulei 238 4.23 V: from Vacoas-Phoenix to Vukovar 240 4.24 W: from Wadi Medani to Wuhan 243 4.25 X: from Xalapa to Xi'an 244 4.26 Y: from Yamagata to Yungkang 245 4.27 Z: from Zadar to Zvishavane 246 5 CITY SEGMENTS RANKED BY COUNTRY 248 5.1 Afghanistan 248 5.2 Albania 248 www.icongrouponline.com ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc. Contents vi 5.3 Algeria 249 5.4 American Samoa 249 5.5 Andorra 250 5.6 Angola 250 5.7 Antigua and Barbuda 250 5.8 Argentina 251 5.9 Armenia 252 5.10 Aruba 252 5.11 Australia 253 5.12 Austria 253 5.13 Azerbaijan 254 5.14 Bahrain 254 5.15 Bangladesh 255 5.16 Barbados 255 5.17 Belarus 256 5.18 Belgium 256 5.19 Belize 257 5.20 Benin 257 5.21 Bermuda 257 5.22 Bhutan 258 5.23 Bolivia 258 5.24 Bosnia and Herzegovina 259 5.25 Botswana 259 5.26 Brazil 260 5.27 Brunei 265 5.28 Bulgaria 266 5.29 Burkina Faso 266 5.30 Burma 267 5.31 Burundi 267 5.32 Cambodia 267 5.33 Cameroon 268 5.34 Canada 268 5.35 Cape Verde 269 5.36 Central African Republic 269 5.37 Chad 270 5.38 Chile 270 5.39 China 271 5.40 Christmas Island 271 5.41 Colombia 272 5.42 Comoros 272 5.43 Congo (formerly Zaire) 273 5.44 Cook Islands 273 5.45 Costa Rica 274 5.46 Cote d'Ivoire 274 5.47 Croatia 275 5.48 Cuba 275 5.49 Cyprus 276 5.50 Czech Republic 276 5.51 Denmark 277 5.52 Djibouti 277 5.53 Dominica 278 5.54 Dominican Republic 278 5.55 Ecuador 279 www.icongrouponline.com ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc. Contents vii 5.56 Egypt 279 5.57 El Salvador 280 5.58 Equatorial Guinea 280 5.59 Estonia 280 5.60 Ethiopia 281 5.61 Fiji 281 5.62 Finland 282 5.63 France 282 5.64 French Guiana 283 5.65 French Polynesia 283 5.66 Gabon 283 5.67 Georgia 284 5.68 Germany 284 5.69 Ghana 285 5.70 Greece 285 5.71 Greenland 286 5.72 Grenada 286 5.73 Guadeloupe 287 5.74 Guam 287 5.75 Guatemala 288 5.76 Guinea 288 5.77 Guinea-Bissau 289 5.78 Guyana 289 5.79 Haiti 289 5.80 Honduras 290 5.81 Hong Kong 290 5.82 Hungary 291 5.83 Iceland 291 5.84 India 292 5.85 Indonesia 293 5.86 Iran 294 5.87 Iraq 294 5.88 Ireland 295 5.89 Israel 295 5.90 Italy 296 5.91 Jamaica 296 5.92 Japan 297 5.93 Jordan 300 5.94 Kazakhstan 300 5.95 Kenya 301 5.96 Kiribati 301 5.97 Kuwait 301 5.98 Kyrgyzstan 302 5.99 Laos 302 5.100 Latvia 303 5.101 Lebanon 303 5.102 Lesotho 303 5.103 Liberia 304 5.104 Libya 304 5.105 Liechtenstein 305 5.106 Lithuania 305 5.107 Luxembourg 305 5.108 Macau 306 www.icongrouponline.com ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc. Contents viii 5.109 Madagascar 306 5.110 Malawi 306 5.111 Malaysia 307 5.112 Maldives 307 5.113 Mali 308 5.114 Malta 308 5.115 Marshall Islands 308 5.116 Martinique 309 5.117 Mauritania 309 5.118 Mauritius 310 5.119 Mexico 311 5.120 Micronesia Federation 312 5.121 Moldova 312 5.122 Monaco 312 5.123 Mongolia 313 5.124 Morocco 313 5.125 Mozambique 314 5.126 Namibia 314 5.127 Nauru 314 5.128 Nepal 315 5.129 New Caledonia 315 5.130 New Zealand 316 5.131 Nicaragua 316 5.132 Niger 317 5.133 Nigeria 317 5.134 Niue 318 5.135 Norfolk Island 318 5.136 North Korea 318 5.137 Norway 319 5.138 Oman 319 5.139 Pakistan 320 5.140 Palau 320 5.141 Palestine 320 5.142 Panama 321 5.143 Papua New Guinea 321 5.144 Paraguay
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