The 2011 Report on Manufacturing Rubber Products from Natural and Synthetic Rubber Excluding Tires, Hoses and Belting, and Molded, Extruded, and Lathe-Cut Rubber Goods for Mechanical Applications: Wor by ICONGroup

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									   The 2011 Report on Manufacturing
   Rubber Products from Natural and
    Synthetic Rubber Excluding Tires,
      Hoses and Belting, and Molded,
     Extruded, and Lathe-Cut Rubber
  Goods for Mechanical Applications:
  World Market Segmentation by City




                                         by
                              Philip M. Parker, Ph.D.
                      Chaired Professor of Management Science
                    INSEAD (Singapore and Fontainebleau, France)




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                                        About the Author
Dr. Philip M. Parker is the Eli Lilly Chaired Professor of Innovation, Business and Society at INSEAD where he has
taught courses on global competitive strategy since 1988. He has also taught courses at MIT, Stanford University,
Harvard University, UCLA, UCSD, and the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. Professor Parker is
the author of six books on the economic convergence of nations. These books introduce the notion of
“physioeconomics” which foresees a lack of global convergence in economic behaviors due to physiological and
physiographic forces. His latest book is "Physioeconomics: The Basis for Long-Run Economic Growth" (MIT Press
2000). He has also published numerous articles in academic journals, including, the Rand Journal of Economics,
Marketing Science, the Journal of International Business Studies, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, the
International Journal of Forecasting, the European Management Journal, the European Journal of Operational
Research, the Journal of Marketing, the International Journal of Research in Marketing, and the Journal of
Marketing Research. He is also on the editorial boards of several academic journals.

Dr. Parker received his Ph.D. in Business Economics from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania
and has Masters degrees in Finance and Banking (University of Aix-Marseille) and Managerial Economics
(Wharton). His undergraduate degrees are in mathematics, biology and economics (minor in aeronautical
engineering). He has consulted and/or taught courses in Africa, the Middle East, Asia, Latin America, North America
and Europe.


                                         About this Series
This series was created for international firms who rely on foreign markets for a substantial portion of their business
or who might be threatened by international competition. The estimates given in this report were created using a
methodology developed by and implemented under the direct supervision of Professor Philip M. Parker, the Eli Lilly
Chaired Professor of Innovation, Business and Society, at INSEAD. The methodology relies on historical figures
across countries. Reported figures should be seen as estimates of past and future levels of latent demand.


                                      Acknowledgements
Some of the methodologies and research approaches used in this report have benefited from the R&D Committee at
INSEAD, whose research support is gratefully acknowledged.




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                                                                                                                     iv


                   About Icon Group International, Inc.
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Note: as statements and statistics in this report are forward-looking, the reader needs to read the
last chapter for disclaimers and user agreement provisions.




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                                                                                         Contents         v


Table of Contents
1     INTRODUCTION & METHODOLOGY                                                                     11
    1.1     Overview and Definitions                                                                 11
    1.2     Market Potential Estimation Methodology                                                  11
       1.2.1    Overview                                                                             11
       1.2.2    What is Latent Demand and the P.I.E.?                                                12
       1.2.3    The Methodology                                                                      13
          1.2.3.1    Step 1. Product Definition and Data Collection                                  14
          1.2.3.2    Step 2. Filtering and Smoothing                                                 20
          1.2.3.3    Step 3. Filling in Missing Values                                               20
          1.2.3.4    Step 4. Varying Parameter, Non-linear Estimation                                21
          1.2.3.5    Step 5. Fixed-Parameter Linear Estimation                                       21
          1.2.3.6    Step 6. Aggregation and Benchmarking                                            21
2     USING THE DATA                                                                                 22
3     CITY SEGMENTS RANKED BY MARKET SIZE                                                            23
    3.1    Top 15 Markets                                                                            23
    3.2    Markets 16 to 30                                                                          24
    3.3    Remaining Cities by Market Rank                                                           25
4     CITY SEGMENTS IN ALPHABETICAL ORDER                                                           128
    4.1    A: from Aalborg to Az Zawiyah                                                            128
    4.2    B: from Bacolod to Bydgoszcz                                                             135
    4.3    C: from Caaguazu to Cyangugu                                                             143
    4.4    D: from Da Nang to Dzhizak                                                               152
    4.5    E: from East London to Esteli                                                            156
    4.6    F: from Fagatogo to Funchal                                                              158
    4.7    G: from Gabes to Gyumri                                                                  161
    4.8    H: from Hachinohe to Hyderabad                                                           165
    4.9    I: from Iasi to Izmir                                                                    169
    4.10   J: from Jaboatao to Jyvaskyla                                                            172
    4.11   K: from Kabul to Kzyl-Orda                                                               175
    4.12   L: from La Ceiba to Lyon                                                                 183
    4.13   M: from Macae to Mzuzu                                                                   189
    4.14   N: from Nacala to Nzerekore                                                              199
    4.15   O: from Oaklahoma City to Oyem                                                           204
    4.16   Ö: from Örebro to Örebro                                                                 206
    4.17   P: from Pago Pago to Pyuthan                                                             207
    4.18   Q: from Qandahar to Quito                                                                214
    4.19   R: from Rabat to Rustavi                                                                 215
    4.20   S: from S. Luis Potosi to Szombathely                                                    218
    4.21   T: from Tabligbo to Tyre                                                                 230
    4.22   U: from Uberaba to Utulei                                                                238
    4.23   V: from Vacoas-Phoenix to Vukovar                                                        240
    4.24   W: from Wadi Medani to Wuhan                                                             243
    4.25   X: from Xalapa to Xi'an                                                                  244
    4.26   Y: from Yamagata to Yungkang                                                             245
    4.27   Z: from Zadar to Zvishavane                                                              246
5     CITY SEGMENTS RANKED BY COUNTRY                                                               248
    5.1    Afghanistan                                                                              248
    5.2    Albania                                                                                  248


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  5.3    Algeria                                                249
  5.4    American Samoa                                         249
  5.5    Andorra                                                250
  5.6    Angola                                                 250
  5.7    Antigua and Barbuda                                    250
  5.8    Argentina                                              251
  5.9    Armenia                                                252
  5.10   Aruba                                                  252
  5.11   Australia                                              253
  5.12   Austria                                                253
  5.13   Azerbaijan                                             254
  5.14   Bahrain                                                254
  5.15   Bangladesh                                             255
  5.16   Barbados                                               255
  5.17   Belarus                                                256
  5.18   Belgium                                                256
  5.19   Belize                                                 257
  5.20   Benin                                                  257
  5.21   Bermuda                                                257
  5.22   Bhutan                                                 258
  5.23   Bolivia                                                258
  5.24   Bosnia and Herzegovina                                 259
  5.25   Botswana                                               259
  5.26   Brazil                                                 260
  5.27   Brunei                                                 265
  5.28   Bulgaria                                               266
  5.29   Burkina Faso                                           266
  5.30   Burma                                                  267
  5.31   Burundi                                                267
  5.32   Cambodia                                               267
  5.33   Cameroon                                               268
  5.34   Canada                                                 268
  5.35   Cape Verde                                             269
  5.36   Central African Republic                               269
  5.37   Chad                                                   270
  5.38   Chile                                                  270
  5.39   China                                                  271
  5.40   Christmas Island                                       271
  5.41   Colombia                                               272
  5.42   Comoros                                                272
  5.43   Congo (formerly Zaire)                                 273
  5.44   Cook Islands                                           273
  5.45   Costa Rica                                             274
  5.46   Cote d'Ivoire                                          274
  5.47   Croatia                                                275
  5.48   Cuba                                                   275
  5.49   Cyprus                                                 276
  5.50   Czech Republic                                         276
  5.51   Denmark                                                277
  5.52   Djibouti                                               277
  5.53   Dominica                                               278
  5.54   Dominican Republic                                     278
  5.55   Ecuador                                                279


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  5.56    Egypt                                           279
  5.57    El Salvador                                     280
  5.58    Equatorial Guinea                               280
  5.59    Estonia                                         280
  5.60    Ethiopia                                        281
  5.61    Fiji                                            281
  5.62    Finland                                         282
  5.63    France                                          282
  5.64    French Guiana                                   283
  5.65    French Polynesia                                283
  5.66    Gabon                                           283
  5.67    Georgia                                         284
  5.68    Germany                                         284
  5.69    Ghana                                           285
  5.70    Greece                                          285
  5.71    Greenland                                       286
  5.72    Grenada                                         286
  5.73    Guadeloupe                                      287
  5.74    Guam                                            287
  5.75    Guatemala                                       288
  5.76    Guinea                                          288
  5.77    Guinea-Bissau                                   289
  5.78    Guyana                                          289
  5.79    Haiti                                           289
  5.80    Honduras                                        290
  5.81    Hong Kong                                       290
  5.82    Hungary                                         291
  5.83    Iceland                                         291
  5.84    India                                           292
  5.85    Indonesia                                       293
  5.86    Iran                                            294
  5.87    Iraq                                            294
  5.88    Ireland                                         295
  5.89    Israel                                          295
  5.90    Italy                                           296
  5.91    Jamaica                                         296
  5.92    Japan                                           297
  5.93    Jordan                                          300
  5.94    Kazakhstan                                      300
  5.95    Kenya                                           301
  5.96    Kiribati                                        301
  5.97    Kuwait                                          301
  5.98    Kyrgyzstan                                      302
  5.99    Laos                                            302
  5.100   Latvia                                          303
  5.101   Lebanon                                         303
  5.102   Lesotho                                         303
  5.103   Liberia                                         304
  5.104   Libya                                           304
  5.105   Liechtenstein                                   305
  5.106   Lithuania                                       305
  5.107   Luxembourg                                      305
  5.108   Macau                                           306


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  5.109   Madagascar                                          306
  5.110   Malawi                                              306
  5.111   Malaysia                                            307
  5.112   Maldives                                            307
  5.113   Mali                                                308
  5.114   Malta                                               308
  5.115   Marshall Islands                                    308
  5.116   Martinique                                          309
  5.117   Mauritania                                          309
  5.118   Mauritius                                           310
  5.119   Mexico                                              311
  5.120   Micronesia Federation                               312
  5.121   Moldova                                             312
  5.122   Monaco                                              312
  5.123   Mongolia                                            313
  5.124   Morocco                                             313
  5.125   Mozambique                                          314
  5.126   Namibia                                             314
  5.127   Nauru                                               314
  5.128   Nepal                                               315
  5.129   New Caledonia                                       315
  5.130   New Zealand                                         316
  5.131   Nicaragua                                           316
  5.132   Niger                                               317
  5.133   Nigeria                                             317
  5.134   Niue                                                318
  5.135   Norfolk Island                                      318
  5.136   North Korea                                         318
  5.137   Norway                                              319
  5.138   Oman                                                319
  5.139   Pakistan                                            320
  5.140   Palau                                               320
  5.141   Palestine                                           320
  5.142   Panama                                              321
  5.143   Papua New Guinea                                    321
  5.144   Paraguay                                     
								
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