The 2011 Report on Manufacturing
Basic Organic Chemical Products
Excluding Aromatic Petrochemicals,
Industrial Gases, Synthetic Organic
Dyes and Pigments, Gum and Wood
Chemicals, Cyclic Crudes and
Intermediates, and Ethyl Alcohol:
World Market Segmentation by City
by
Philip M. Parker, Ph.D.
Chaired Professor of Management Science
INSEAD (Singapore and Fontainebleau, France)
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About the Author
Dr. Philip M. Parker is the Eli Lilly Chaired Professor of Innovation, Business and Society at INSEAD where he has
taught courses on global competitive strategy since 1988. He has also taught courses at MIT, Stanford University,
Harvard University, UCLA, UCSD, and the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. Professor Parker is
the author of six books on the economic convergence of nations. These books introduce the notion of
“physioeconomics” which foresees a lack of global convergence in economic behaviors due to physiological and
physiographic forces. His latest book is "Physioeconomics: The Basis for Long-Run Economic Growth" (MIT Press
2000). He has also published numerous articles in academic journals, including, the Rand Journal of Economics,
Marketing Science, the Journal of International Business Studies, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, the
International Journal of Forecasting, the European Management Journal, the European Journal of Operational
Research, the Journal of Marketing, the International Journal of Research in Marketing, and the Journal of
Marketing Research. He is also on the editorial boards of several academic journals.
Dr. Parker received his Ph.D. in Business Economics from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania
and has Masters degrees in Finance and Banking (University of Aix-Marseille) and Managerial Economics
(Wharton). His undergraduate degrees are in mathematics, biology and economics (minor in aeronautical
engineering). He has consulted and/or taught courses in Africa, the Middle East, Asia, Latin America, North America
and Europe.
About this Series
This series was created for international firms who rely on foreign markets for a substantial portion of their business
or who might be threatened by international competition. The estimates given in this report were created using a
methodology developed by and implemented under the direct supervision of Professor Philip M. Parker, the Eli Lilly
Chaired Professor of Innovation, Business and Society, at INSEAD. The methodology relies on historical figures
across countries. Reported figures should be seen as estimates of past and future levels of latent demand.
Acknowledgements
Some of the methodologies and research approaches used in this report have benefited from the R&D Committee at
INSEAD, whose research support is gratefully acknowledged.
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iv
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Note: as statements and statistics in this report are forward-looking, the reader needs to read the
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Contents v
Table of Contents
1 INTRODUCTION & METHODOLOGY 11
1.1 Overview and Definitions 11
1.2 Market Potential Estimation Methodology 11
1.2.1 Overview 11
1.2.2 What is Latent Demand and the P.I.E.? 12
1.2.3 The Methodology 13
1.2.3.1 Step 1. Product Definition and Data Collection 14
1.2.3.2 Step 2. Filtering and Smoothing 23
1.2.3.3 Step 3. Filling in Missing Values 23
1.2.3.4 Step 4. Varying Parameter, Non-linear Estimation 24
1.2.3.5 Step 5. Fixed-Parameter Linear Estimation 24
1.2.3.6 Step 6. Aggregation and Benchmarking 24
2 USING THE DATA 26
3 CITY SEGMENTS RANKED BY MARKET SIZE 27
3.1 Top 15 Markets 27
3.2 Markets 16 to 30 28
3.3 Remaining Cities by Market Rank 29
4 CITY SEGMENTS IN ALPHABETICAL ORDER 132
4.1 A: from Aalborg to Az Zawiyah 132
4.2 B: from Bacolod to Bydgoszcz 139
4.3 C: from Caaguazu to Cyangugu 147
4.4 D: from Da Nang to Dzhizak 156
4.5 E: from East London to Esteli 160
4.6 F: from Fagatogo to Funchal 162
4.7 G: from Gabes to Gyumri 165
4.8 H: from Hachinohe to Hyderabad 169
4.9 I: from Iasi to Izmir 173
4.10 J: from Jaboatao to Jyvaskyla 176
4.11 K: from Kabul to Kzyl-Orda 179
4.12 L: from La Ceiba to Lyon 187
4.13 M: from Macae to Mzuzu 193
4.14 N: from Nacala to Nzerekore 203
4.15 O: from Oaklahoma City to Oyem 208
4.16 Ö: from Örebro to Örebro 210
4.17 P: from Pago Pago to Pyuthan 211
4.18 Q: from Qandahar to Quito 218
4.19 R: from Rabat to Rustavi 219
4.20 S: from S. Luis Potosi to Szombathely 222
4.21 T: from Tabligbo to Tyre 234
4.22 U: from Uberaba to Utulei 242
4.23 V: from Vacoas-Phoenix to Vukovar 244
4.24 W: from Wadi Medani to Wuhan 247
4.25 X: from Xalapa to Xi'an 248
4.26 Y: from Yamagata to Yungkang 249
4.27 Z: from Zadar to Zvishavane 250
5 CITY SEGMENTS RANKED BY COUNTRY 252
5.1 Afghanistan 252
5.2 Albania 252
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Contents vi
5.3 Algeria 253
5.4 American Samoa 253
5.5 Andorra 254
5.6 Angola 254
5.7 Antigua and Barbuda 254
5.8 Argentina 255
5.9 Armenia 256
5.10 Aruba 256
5.11 Australia 257
5.12 Austria 257
5.13 Azerbaijan 258
5.14 Bahrain 258
5.15 Bangladesh 259
5.16 Barbados 259
5.17 Belarus 260
5.18 Belgium 260
5.19 Belize 261
5.20 Benin 261
5.21 Bermuda 261
5.22 Bhutan 262
5.23 Bolivia 262
5.24 Bosnia and Herzegovina 263
5.25 Botswana 263
5.26 Brazil 263
5.27 Brunei 269
5.28 Bulgaria 270
5.29 Burkina Faso 270
5.30 Burma 271
5.31 Burundi 271
5.32 Cambodia 272
5.33 Cameroon 272
5.34 Canada 273
5.35 Cape Verde 273
5.36 Central African Republic 273
5.37 Chad 274
5.38 Chile 275
5.39 China 276
5.40 Christmas Island 276
5.41 Colombia 277
5.42 Comoros 277
5.43 Congo (formerly Zaire) 278
5.44 Cook Islands 278
5.45 Costa Rica 279
5.46 Cote d'Ivoire 279
5.47 Croatia 280
5.48 Cuba 280
5.49 Cyprus 280
5.50 Czech Republic 281
5.51 Denmark 282
5.52 Djibouti 282
5.53 Dominica 283
5.54 Dominican Republic 283
5.55 Ecuador 284
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Contents vii
5.56 Egypt 284
5.57 El Salvador 285
5.58 Equatorial Guinea 285
5.59 Estonia 286
5.60 Ethiopia 286
5.61 Fiji 287
5.62 Finland 287
5.63 France 288
5.64 French Guiana 288
5.65 French Polynesia 289
5.66 Gabon 289
5.67 Georgia 290
5.68 Germany 290
5.69 Ghana 291
5.70 Greece 291
5.71 Greenland 291
5.72 Grenada 292
5.73 Guadeloupe 293
5.74 Guam 293
5.75 Guatemala 294
5.76 Guinea 294
5.77 Guinea-Bissau 295
5.78 Guyana 295
5.79 Haiti 296
5.80 Honduras 296
5.81 Hong Kong 297
5.82 Hungary 297
5.83 Iceland 298
5.84 India 299
5.85 Indonesia 300
5.86 Iran 301
5.87 Iraq 302
5.88 Ireland 302
5.89 Israel 302
5.90 Italy 303
5.91 Jamaica 303
5.92 Japan 305
5.93 Jordan 308
5.94 Kazakhstan 308
5.95 Kenya 309
5.96 Kiribati 309
5.97 Kuwait 310
5.98 Kyrgyzstan 310
5.99 Laos 311
5.100 Latvia 311
5.101 Lebanon 312
5.102 Lesotho 312
5.103 Liberia 312
5.104 Libya 313
5.105 Liechtenstein 313
5.106 Lithuania 314
5.107 Luxembourg 314
5.108 Macau 314
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Contents viii
5.109 Madagascar 315
5.110 Malawi 315
5.111 Malaysia 316
5.112 Maldives 316
5.113 Mali 317
5.114 Malta 317
5.115 Marshall Islands 317
5.116 Martinique 318
5.117 Mauritania 318
5.118 Mauritius 319
5.119 Mexico 320
5.120 Micronesia Federation 321
5.121 Moldova 321
5.122 Monaco 321
5.123 Mongolia 321
5.124 Morocco 322
5.125 Mozambique 323
5.126 Namibia 323
5.127 Nauru 323
5.128 Nepal 324
5.129 New Caledonia 324
5.130 New Zealand 325
5.131 Nicaragua 325
5.132 Niger 326
5.133 Nigeria 326
5.134 Niue 327
5.135 Norfolk Island 327
5.136 North Korea 327
5.137 Norway 328
5.138 Oman 328
5.139 Pakistan 329
5.140 Palau 329
5.141 Palestine 329
5.142 Panama 330
5.143 Papua New Guinea 330
5.144 Paraguay 331
5.145 Peru 331
5.146 Philippines 332
5.147 Poland 333
5.148 Portugal 333
5.149 Puerto Rico 334
5.150 Qatar 334
5.151 Republic of Congo 335
5.152 Re