This report was created for global strategic planners who cannot be content with traditional methods of segmenting world markets. With the advent of a “borderless world”, cities become a more important criteria in prioritizing markets, as opposed to regions, continents, or countries. This report covers the top 2000 cities in over 200 countries. It does so by reporting the estimated market size (in terms of latent demand) for each major city of the world. It then ranks these cities and reports them in terms of their size as a percent of the country where they are located, their geographic region (e.g. Africa, Asia, Europe, Middle East, North America, Latin America), and the total world market.
In performing various economic analyses for its clients, I have been occasionally asked to investigate the market potential for various products and services across cities. The purpose of the studies is to understand the density of demand within a country and the extent to which a city might be used as a point of distribution within its region. From an economic perspective, however, a city does not represent a population within rigid geographical boundaries. To an economist or strategic planner, a city represents an area of dominant influence over markets in adjacent areas. This influence varies from one industry to another, but also from one period of time to another.
In what follows, I summarize the economic potential for the world's major cities for "manufacturing aluminum-extruded products" for the year 2011. The goal of this report is to report my findings on the real economic potential, or what an economist calls the latent demand, represented by a city when defined as an area of dominant influence. The reader needs to realize that latent demand may or may not represent real sales. For many items, latent demand is clearly observable in sales, as in the case for food or housing items. Consider, however, the category "satellite launch vehicles". Clearly, there are
The 2011 Report on Manufacturing Aluminum-Extruded Products: World Market Segmentation by City by Philip M. Parker, Ph.D. Chaired Professor of Management Science INSEAD (Singapore and Fontainebleau, France) www.icongrouponline.com ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc. ii COPYRIGHT NOTICE 00052194-5G All of ICON Group International, Inc. publications are copyrighted. Copying our publications in whole or in part, for whatever reason, is a violation of copyrights laws and can lead to penalties and fines. Should you want to copy tables, graphs or other materials from our publications, please contact us to request permission. ICON Group International, Inc. often grants permission for very limited reproduction of our publications for internal use, press releases, and academic research. Such reproduction requires, however, confirmed permission from ICON Group International, Inc. Please read the full copyright notice, disclaimer, and user agreement provisions at the end of this report. IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER Neither ICON Group International, Inc. nor its employees can be held accountable for the use and subsequent actions of the user of the information provided in this publication. Great efforts have been made to ensure the accuracy of the data, but we can not guarantee, given the volume of information, accuracy. Since the information given in this report is forward-looking, the reader should read the disclaimer statement and user agreement provisions at the end of this report. www.icongrouponline.com ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc. iii About the Author Dr. Philip M. Parker is the Eli Lilly Chaired Professor of Innovation, Business and Society at INSEAD where he has taught courses on global competitive strategy since 1988. He has also taught courses at MIT, Stanford University, Harvard University, UCLA, UCSD, and the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. Professor Parker is the author of six books on the economic convergence of nations. These books introduce the notion of “physioeconomics” which foresees a lack of global convergence in economic behaviors due to physiological and physiographic forces. His latest book is "Physioeconomics: The Basis for Long-Run Economic Growth" (MIT Press 2000). He has also published numerous articles in academic journals, including, the Rand Journal of Economics, Marketing Science, the Journal of International Business Studies, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, the International Journal of Forecasting, the European Management Journal, the European Journal of Operational Research, the Journal of Marketing, the International Journal of Research in Marketing, and the Journal of Marketing Research. He is also on the editorial boards of several academic journals. Dr. Parker received his Ph.D. in Business Economics from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania and has Masters degrees in Finance and Banking (University of Aix-Marseille) and Managerial Economics (Wharton). His undergraduate degrees are in mathematics, biology and economics (minor in aeronautical engineering). He has consulted and/or taught courses in Africa, the Middle East, Asia, Latin America, North America and Europe. About this Series This series was created for international firms who rely on foreign markets for a substantial portion of their business or who might be threatened by international competition. The estimates given in this report were created using a methodology developed by and implemented under the direct supervision of Professor Philip M. Parker, the Eli Lilly Chaired Professor of Innovation, Business and Society, at INSEAD. The methodology relies on historical figures across countries. Reported figures should be seen as estimates of past and future levels of latent demand. Acknowledgements Some of the methodologies and research approaches used in this report have benefited from the R&D Committee at INSEAD, whose research support is gratefully acknowledged. www.icongrouponline.com ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc. iv About Icon Group International, Inc. Icon Group International, Inc.’s primary mission is to assist managers with their international information needs using forward-looking economic analysis. Icon Group has field offices in San Diego, Paris, Singapore, Hong Kong, and Lomé, Togo (West Africa). Icon Group has published hundreds of multi-client databases and global/regional market data, industry, and country publications. Global/Regional Management Studies: Summarizing over 210 countries, management studies are generally organized into regional volumes and cover key management functions. 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Covering over 190 countries, each study consists of forward-looking analysis, statistics, forecasts, and information of relevance to managers. The studies are continually updated to ensure that the reports have the most relevant information available. In addition to raw information, the reports provide relevant analyses which put a more general perspective on a country (seen in the context of relative performance vis-à-vis benchmarks). Industry & Trade Studies: Companies are racing to become more international, if not global in their strategies. For over 2000 product/industry categories, these reports give the reader a concise summary of latent market forecasts, pro-forma financials, import competition profiles, key references, and trends across 200 countries of the world. Some reports focus on a particular product and region (up to four regions per product), while others focus on a product within a particular country. Intranet Subscriptions: Icon Group International, Inc. now offers full intranet subscriptions which brings millions of dollars of high-end global market research to the manager’s personal computer. For more information, please contact Icon Group via our web site: www.icongrouponline.com, or please email: firstname.lastname@example.org. In addition to these reports, Icon Group publishes similar studies for other product categories, issue areas, regions of the world, countries, cities and states (in the case of the United States). If you wish to receive a report that is customized or addressing a particular issue, feel free to contact Icon Group: Icon Group International, Inc. Customer Service 9606 Tierra Grande St., Suite 205 San Diego, CA 92126 USA Fax: 858-635-9414 Email: email@example.com URL: www.icongrouponline.com Note: as statements and statistics in this report are forward-looking, the reader needs to read the last chapter for disclaimers and user agreement provisions. www.icongrouponline.com ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc. Contents v Table of Contents 1 INTRODUCTION & METHODOLOGY 11 1.1 Overview and Definitions 11 1.2 Market Potential Estimation Methodology 11 1.2.1 Overview 11 1.2.2 What is Latent Demand and the P.I.E.? 12 1.2.3 The Methodology 12 220.127.116.11 Step 1. Product Definition and Data Collection 14 18.104.22.168 Step 2. Filtering and Smoothing 17 22.214.171.124 Step 3. Filling in Missing Values 17 126.96.36.199 Step 4. Varying Parameter, Non-linear Estimation 18 188.8.131.52 Step 5. Fixed-Parameter Linear Estimation 18 184.108.40.206 Step 6. Aggregation and Benchmarking 18 2 USING THE DATA 19 3 CITY SEGMENTS RANKED BY MARKET SIZE 20 3.1 Top 15 Markets 20 3.2 Markets 16 to 30 21 3.3 Remaining Cities by Market Rank 22 4 CITY SEGMENTS IN ALPHABETICAL ORDER 125 4.1 A: from Aalborg to Az Zawiyah 125 4.2 B: from Bacolod to Bydgoszcz 132 4.3 C: from Caaguazu to Cyangugu 140 4.4 D: from Da Nang to Dzhizak 148 4.5 E: from East London to Esteli 152 4.6 F: from Fagatogo to Funchal 154 4.7 G: from Gabes to Gyumri 157 4.8 H: from Hachinohe to Hyderabad 161 4.9 I: from Iasi to Izmir 165 4.10 J: from Jaboatao to Jyvaskyla 168 4.11 K: from Kabul to Kzyl-Orda 170 4.12 L: from La Ceiba to Lyon 178 4.13 M: from Macae to Mzuzu 183 4.14 N: from Nacala to Nzerekore 193 4.15 O: from Oaklahoma City to Oyem 198 4.16 Ö: from Örebro to Örebro 200 4.17 P: from Pago Pago to Pyuthan 201 4.18 Q: from Qandahar to Quito 207 4.19 R: from Rabat to Rustavi 208 4.20 S: from S. Luis Potosi to Szombathely 211 4.21 T: from Tabligbo to Tyre 223 4.22 U: from Uberaba to Utulei 230 4.23 V: from Vacoas-Phoenix to Vukovar 232 4.24 W: from Wadi Medani to Wuhan 235 4.25 X: from Xalapa to Xi'an 236 4.26 Y: from Yamagata to Yungkang 237 4.27 Z: from Zadar to Zvishavane 238 5 CITY SEGMENTS RANKED BY COUNTRY 239 5.1 Afghanistan 239 5.2 Albania 239 www.icongrouponline.com ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc. Contents vi 5.3 Algeria 240 5.4 American Samoa 240 5.5 Andorra 240 5.6 Angola 241 5.7 Antigua and Barbuda 241 5.8 Argentina 242 5.9 Armenia 243 5.10 Aruba 243 5.11 Australia 244 5.12 Austria 244 5.13 Azerbaijan 245 5.14 Bahrain 245 5.15 Bangladesh 245 5.16 Barbados 246 5.17 Belarus 246 5.18 Belgium 246 5.19 Belize 247 5.20 Benin 247 5.21 Bermuda 247 5.22 Bhutan 248 5.23 Bolivia 248 5.24 Bosnia and Herzegovina 248 5.25 Botswana 249 5.26 Brazil 250 5.27 Brunei 255 5.28 Bulgaria 255 5.29 Burkina Faso 256 5.30 Burma 256 5.31 Burundi 256 5.32 Cambodia 257 5.33 Cameroon 257 5.34 Canada 257 5.35 Cape Verde 258 5.36 Central African Republic 258 5.37 Chad 258 5.38 Chile 259 5.39 China 259 5.40 Christmas Island 260 5.41 Colombia 260 5.42 Comoros 260 5.43 Congo (formerly Zaire) 261 5.44 Cook Islands 261 5.45 Costa Rica 261 5.46 Cote d'Ivoire 262 5.47 Croatia 262 5.48 Cuba 262 5.49 Cyprus 263 5.50 Czech Republic 263 5.51 Denmark 263 5.52 Djibouti 264 5.53 Dominica 264 5.54 Dominican Republic 264 5.55 Ecuador 265 www.icongrouponline.com ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc. Contents vii 5.56 Egypt 265 5.57 El Salvador 265 5.58 Equatorial Guinea 266 5.59 Estonia 266 5.60 Ethiopia 266 5.61 Fiji 267 5.62 Finland 267 5.63 France 268 5.64 French Guiana 268 5.65 French Polynesia 269 5.66 Gabon 269 5.67 Georgia 269 5.68 Germany 270 5.69 Ghana 270 5.70 Greece 271 5.71 Greenland 271 5.72 Grenada 271 5.73 Guadeloupe 272 5.74 Guam 272 5.75 Guatemala 272 5.76 Guinea 273 5.77 Guinea-Bissau 273 5.78 Guyana 273 5.79 Haiti 274 5.80 Honduras 274 5.81 Hong Kong 274 5.82 Hungary 275 5.83 Iceland 275 5.84 India 276 5.85 Indonesia 277 5.86 Iran 278 5.87 Iraq 278 5.88 Ireland 279 5.89 Israel 279 5.90 Italy 280 5.91 Jamaica 280 5.92 Japan 281 5.93 Jordan 283 5.94 Kazakhstan 284 5.95 Kenya 284 5.96 Kiribati 285 5.97 Kuwait 285 5.98 Kyrgyzstan 285 5.99 Laos 285 5.100 Latvia 286 5.101 Lebanon 286 5.102 Lesotho 286 5.103 Liberia 287 5.104 Libya 287 5.105 Liechtenstein 287 5.106 Lithuania 288 5.107 Luxembourg 288 5.108 Macau 288 www.icongrouponline.com ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc. Contents viii 5.109 Madagascar 289 5.110 Malawi 289 5.111 Malaysia 290 5.112 Maldives 290 5.113 Mali 291 5.114 Malta 291 5.115 Marshall Islands 291 5.116 Martinique 292 5.117 Mauritania 292 5.118 Mauritius 292 5.119 Mexico 293 5.120 Micronesia Federation 294 5.121 Moldova 294 5.122 Monaco 294 5.123 Mongolia 294 5.124 Morocco 295 5.125 Mozambique 295 5.126 Namibia 295 5.127 Nauru 296 5.128 Nepal 296 5.129 New Caledonia 296 5.130 New Zealand 297 5.131 Nicaragua 297 5.132 Niger 298 5.133 Nigeria 298 5.134 Niue 298 5.135 Norfolk Island 299 5.136 North Korea 299 5.137 Norway 299 5.138 Oman 300 5.139 Pakistan
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