This report was created for global strategic planners who cannot be content with traditional methods of segmenting world markets. With the advent of a “borderless world”, cities become a more important criteria in prioritizing markets, as opposed to regions, continents, or countries. This report covers the top 2000 cities in over 200 countries. It does so by reporting the estimated market size (in terms of latent demand) for each major city of the world. It then ranks these cities and reports them in terms of their size as a percent of the country where they are located, their geographic region (e.g. Africa, Asia, Europe, Middle East, North America, Latin America), and the total world market.
In performing various economic analyses for its clients, I have been occasionally asked to investigate the market potential for various products and services across cities. The purpose of the studies is to understand the density of demand within a country and the extent to which a city might be used as a point of distribution within its region. From an economic perspective, however, a city does not represent a population within rigid geographical boundaries. To an economist or strategic planner, a city represents an area of dominant influence over markets in adjacent areas. This influence varies from one industry to another, but also from one period of time to another.
In what follows, I summarize the economic potential for the world's major cities for "loose and bound custom-printed unit set business forms with one-time carbon" for the year 2011. The goal of this report is to report my findings on the real economic potential, or what an economist calls the latent demand, represented by a city when defined as an area of dominant influence. The reader needs to realize that latent demand may or may not represent real sales. For many items, latent demand is clearly observable in sales, as in the case for food or housing items. Consider, however, the category "satellite l
The 2011 Report on Loose and Bound Custom-Printed Unit Set Business Forms with One-Time Carbon: World Market Segmentation by City by Philip M. Parker, Ph.D. Chaired Professor of Management Science INSEAD (Singapore and Fontainebleau, France) www.icongrouponline.com ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc. ii COPYRIGHT NOTICE 00052147-2G All of ICON Group International, Inc. publications are copyrighted. Copying our publications in whole or in part, for whatever reason, is a violation of copyrights laws and can lead to penalties and fines. Should you want to copy tables, graphs or other materials from our publications, please contact us to request permission. ICON Group International, Inc. often grants permission for very limited reproduction of our publications for internal use, press releases, and academic research. Such reproduction requires, however, confirmed permission from ICON Group International, Inc. Please read the full copyright notice, disclaimer, and user agreement provisions at the end of this report. IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER Neither ICON Group International, Inc. nor its employees can be held accountable for the use and subsequent actions of the user of the information provided in this publication. Great efforts have been made to ensure the accuracy of the data, but we can not guarantee, given the volume of information, accuracy. Since the information given in this report is forward-looking, the reader should read the disclaimer statement and user agreement provisions at the end of this report. www.icongrouponline.com ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc. iii About the Author Dr. Philip M. Parker is the Eli Lilly Chaired Professor of Innovation, Business and Society at INSEAD where he has taught courses on global competitive strategy since 1988. He has also taught courses at MIT, Stanford University, Harvard University, UCLA, UCSD, and the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. Professor Parker is the author of six books on the economic convergence of nations. These books introduce the notion of “physioeconomics” which foresees a lack of global convergence in economic behaviors due to physiological and physiographic forces. His latest book is "Physioeconomics: The Basis for Long-Run Economic Growth" (MIT Press 2000). He has also published numerous articles in academic journals, including, the Rand Journal of Economics, Marketing Science, the Journal of International Business Studies, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, the International Journal of Forecasting, the European Management Journal, the European Journal of Operational Research, the Journal of Marketing, the International Journal of Research in Marketing, and the Journal of Marketing Research. He is also on the editorial boards of several academic journals. Dr. Parker received his Ph.D. in Business Economics from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania and has Masters degrees in Finance and Banking (University of Aix-Marseille) and Managerial Economics (Wharton). His undergraduate degrees are in mathematics, biology and economics (minor in aeronautical engineering). He has consulted and/or taught courses in Africa, the Middle East, Asia, Latin America, North America and Europe. About this Series This series was created for international firms who rely on foreign markets for a substantial portion of their business or who might be threatened by international competition. The estimates given in this report were created using a methodology developed by and implemented under the direct supervision of Professor Philip M. Parker, the Eli Lilly Chaired Professor of Innovation, Business and Society, at INSEAD. The methodology relies on historical figures across countries. Reported figures should be seen as estimates of past and future levels of latent demand. Acknowledgements Some of the methodologies and research approaches used in this report have benefited from the R&D Committee at INSEAD, whose research support is gratefully acknowledged. www.icongrouponline.com ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc. iv About Icon Group International, Inc. Icon Group International, Inc.’s primary mission is to assist managers with their international information needs using forward-looking economic analysis. Icon Group has field offices in San Diego, Paris, Singapore, Hong Kong, and Lomé, Togo (West Africa). Icon Group has published hundreds of multi-client databases and global/regional market data, industry, and country publications. Global/Regional Management Studies: Summarizing over 210 countries, management studies are generally organized into regional volumes and cover key management functions. The human resource series covers minimum wages, child labor, unionization, and collective bargaining. The international law series covers media control and censorship, search and seizure, and trial justice and punishment. The diversity management series covers a variety of environmental context drivers that effect global operations. These include women’s rights, children’s rights, discrimination/racism, and religious forces and risks. Global strategic planning studies cover economic risk assessments, political risk assessments, foreign direct investment strategy, intellectual property strategy, and export strategy. Financial management studies cover taxes and tariffs. Global marketing studies focus on target segments (e.g. seniors, children, women) and strategic marketing planning. Country Studies: Often managers need an in-depth, yet broad and up-to-date understanding of a country’s strategic market potential and situation before the first field trip or investment proposal. Covering over 190 countries, each study consists of forward-looking analysis, statistics, forecasts, and information of relevance to managers. The studies are continually updated to ensure that the reports have the most relevant information available. In addition to raw information, the reports provide relevant analyses which put a more general perspective on a country (seen in the context of relative performance vis-à-vis benchmarks). Industry & Trade Studies: Companies are racing to become more international, if not global in their strategies. For over 2000 product/industry categories, these reports give the reader a concise summary of latent market forecasts, pro-forma financials, import competition profiles, key references, and trends across 200 countries of the world. Some reports focus on a particular product and region (up to four regions per product), while others focus on a product within a particular country. Intranet Subscriptions: Icon Group International, Inc. now offers full intranet subscriptions which brings millions of dollars of high-end global market research to the manager’s personal computer. For more information, please contact Icon Group via our web site: www.icongrouponline.com, or please email: firstname.lastname@example.org. In addition to these reports, Icon Group publishes similar studies for other product categories, issue areas, regions of the world, countries, cities and states (in the case of the United States). If you wish to receive a report that is customized or addressing a particular issue, feel free to contact Icon Group: Icon Group International, Inc. Customer Service 9606 Tierra Grande St., Suite 205 San Diego, CA 92126 USA Fax: 858-635-9414 Email: email@example.com URL: www.icongrouponline.com Note: as statements and statistics in this report are forward-looking, the reader needs to read the last chapter for disclaimers and user agreement provisions. www.icongrouponline.com ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc. Contents v Table of Contents 1 INTRODUCTION & METHODOLOGY 11 1.1 Overview and Definitions 11 1.2 Market Potential Estimation Methodology 11 1.2.1 Overview 11 1.2.2 What is Latent Demand and the P.I.E.? 12 1.2.3 The Methodology 12 126.96.36.199 Step 1. Product Definition and Data Collection 14 188.8.131.52 Step 2. Filtering and Smoothing 15 184.108.40.206 Step 3. Filling in Missing Values 15 220.127.116.11 Step 4. Varying Parameter, Non-linear Estimation 15 18.104.22.168 Step 5. Fixed-Parameter Linear Estimation 16 22.214.171.124 Step 6. Aggregation and Benchmarking 16 2 USING THE DATA 17 3 CITY SEGMENTS RANKED BY MARKET SIZE 18 3.1 Top 15 Markets 18 3.2 Markets 16 to 30 19 3.3 Remaining Cities by Market Rank 20 4 CITY SEGMENTS IN ALPHABETICAL ORDER 123 4.1 A: from Aalborg to Az Zawiyah 123 4.2 B: from Bacolod to Bydgoszcz 130 4.3 C: from Caaguazu to Cyangugu 138 4.4 D: from Da Nang to Dzhizak 146 4.5 E: from East London to Esteli 150 4.6 F: from Fagatogo to Funchal 152 4.7 G: from Gabes to Gyumri 155 4.8 H: from Hachinohe to Hyderabad 159 4.9 I: from Iasi to Izmir 163 4.10 J: from Jaboatao to Jyvaskyla 166 4.11 K: from Kabul to Kzyl-Orda 168 4.12 L: from La Ceiba to Lyon 176 4.13 M: from Macae to Mzuzu 182 4.14 N: from Nacala to Nzerekore 192 4.15 O: from Oaklahoma City to Oyem 197 4.16 Ö: from Örebro to Örebro 199 4.17 P: from Pago Pago to Pyuthan 200 4.18 Q: from Qandahar to Quito 207 4.19 R: from Rabat to Rustavi 208 4.20 S: from S. Luis Potosi to Szombathely 211 4.21 T: from Tabligbo to Tyre 223 4.22 U: from Uberaba to Utulei 230 4.23 V: from Vacoas-Phoenix to Vukovar 232 4.24 W: from Wadi Medani to Wuhan 235 4.25 X: from Xalapa to Xi'an 236 4.26 Y: from Yamagata to Yungkang 237 4.27 Z: from Zadar to Zvishavane 238 5 CITY SEGMENTS RANKED BY COUNTRY 239 5.1 Afghanistan 239 5.2 Albania 239 www.icongrouponline.com ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc. Contents vi 5.3 Algeria 240 5.4 American Samoa 240 5.5 Andorra 240 5.6 Angola 241 5.7 Antigua and Barbuda 241 5.8 Argentina 242 5.9 Armenia 243 5.10 Aruba 243 5.11 Australia 244 5.12 Austria 244 5.13 Azerbaijan 245 5.14 Bahrain 245 5.15 Bangladesh 246 5.16 Barbados 246 5.17 Belarus 247 5.18 Belgium 247 5.19 Belize 248 5.20 Benin 248 5.21 Bermuda 248 5.22 Bhutan 249 5.23 Bolivia 249 5.24 Bosnia and Herzegovina 249 5.25 Botswana 250 5.26 Brazil 251 5.27 Brunei 256 5.28 Bulgaria 256 5.29 Burkina Faso 257 5.30 Burma 257 5.31 Burundi 257 5.32 Cambodia 258 5.33 Cameroon 258 5.34 Canada 259 5.35 Cape Verde 259 5.36 Central African Republic 260 5.37 Chad 260 5.38 Chile 261 5.39 China 261 5.40 Christmas Island 262 5.41 Colombia 262 5.42 Comoros 262 5.43 Congo (formerly Zaire) 263 5.44 Cook Islands 263 5.45 Costa Rica 263 5.46 Cote d'Ivoire 264 5.47 Croatia 264 5.48 Cuba 265 5.49 Cyprus 265 5.50 Czech Republic 266 5.51 Denmark 266 5.52 Djibouti 267 5.53 Dominica 267 5.54 Dominican Republic 267 5.55 Ecuador 268 www.icongrouponline.com ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc. Contents vii 5.56 Egypt 268 5.57 El Salvador 269 5.58 Equatorial Guinea 269 5.59 Estonia 269 5.60 Ethiopia 270 5.61 Fiji 270 5.62 Finland 271 5.63 France 271 5.64 French Guiana 272 5.65 French Polynesia 272 5.66 Gabon 272 5.67 Georgia 273 5.68 Germany 273 5.69 Ghana 274 5.70 Greece 274 5.71 Greenland 275 5.72 Grenada 275 5.73 Guadeloupe 276 5.74 Guam 276 5.75 Guatemala 276 5.76 Guinea 277 5.77 Guinea-Bissau 277 5.78 Guyana 277 5.79 Haiti 278 5.80 Honduras 278 5.81 Hong Kong 278 5.82 Hungary 279 5.83 Iceland 279 5.84 India 280 5.85 Indonesia 281 5.86 Iran 282 5.87 Iraq 282 5.88 Ireland 283 5.89 Israel 283 5.90 Italy 284 5.91 Jamaica 284 5.92 Japan 285 5.93 Jordan 288 5.94 Kazakhstan 288 5.95 Kenya 289 5.96 Kiribati 289 5.97 Kuwait 289 5.98 Kyrgyzstan 290 5.99 Laos 290 5.100 Latvia 290 5.101 Lebanon 291 5.102 Lesotho 291 5.103 Liberia 291 5.104 Libya 292 5.105 Liechtenstein 292 5.106 Lithuania 292 5.107 Luxembourg 293 5.108 Macau 293 www.icongrouponline.com ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc. Contents viii 5.109 Madagascar 293 5.110 Malawi 294 5.111 Malaysia 294 5.112 Maldives 295 5.113 Mali 295 5.114 Malta 295 5.115 Marshall Islands 296 5.116 Martinique 296 5.117 Mauritania 296 5.118 Mauritius 297 5.119 Mexico 298 5.120 Micronesia Federation 299 5.121 Moldova 299 5.122 Monaco 299 5.123 Mongolia 300 5.124 Morocco 300 5.125 Mozambique 301 5.126 Namibia 301 5.127 Nauru 301 5.128 Nepal 302 5.129 New Caledonia 302 5.130 New Zealand 303 5.131 Nicaragua 303 5.132 Niger 304 5.133 Nigeria 304 5.134 Niue 305 5.135 Norfolk Island
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