The 2011 Report on Fiber Cans Made from Fiber and Composite: World Market Segmentation by City by ICONGroup


This report was created for global strategic planners who cannot be content with traditional methods of segmenting world markets. With the advent of a “borderless world”, cities become a more important criteria in prioritizing markets, as opposed to regions, continents, or countries. This report covers the top 2000 cities in over 200 countries. It does so by reporting the estimated market size (in terms of latent demand) for each major city of the world. It then ranks these cities and reports them in terms of their size as a percent of the country where they are located, their geographic region (e.g. Africa, Asia, Europe, Middle East, North America, Latin America), and the total world market.

In performing various economic analyses for its clients, I have been occasionally asked to investigate the market potential for various products and services across cities. The purpose of the studies is to understand the density of demand within a country and the extent to which a city might be used as a point of distribution within its region. From an economic perspective, however, a city does not represent a population within rigid geographical boundaries. To an economist or strategic planner, a city represents an area of dominant influence over markets in adjacent areas. This influence varies from one industry to another, but also from one period of time to another.

In what follows, I summarize the economic potential for the world's major cities for "fiber cans made from fiber and composite" for the year 2011. The goal of this report is to report my findings on the real economic potential, or what an economist calls the latent demand, represented by a city when defined as an area of dominant influence. The reader needs to realize that latent demand may or may not represent real sales. For many items, latent demand is clearly observable in sales, as in the case for food or housing items. Consider, however, the category "satellite launch vehicles". Clearly, there are

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									      The 2011 Report on Fiber Cans
    Made from Fiber and Composite:
  World Market Segmentation by City

                              Philip M. Parker, Ph.D.
                      Chaired Professor of Management Science
                    INSEAD (Singapore and Fontainebleau, France)                             ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc.

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statement and user agreement provisions at the end of this report.                                 ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc.

                                        About the Author
Dr. Philip M. Parker is the Eli Lilly Chaired Professor of Innovation, Business and Society at INSEAD where he has
taught courses on global competitive strategy since 1988. He has also taught courses at MIT, Stanford University,
Harvard University, UCLA, UCSD, and the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. Professor Parker is
the author of six books on the economic convergence of nations. These books introduce the notion of
“physioeconomics” which foresees a lack of global convergence in economic behaviors due to physiological and
physiographic forces. His latest book is "Physioeconomics: The Basis for Long-Run Economic Growth" (MIT Press
2000). He has also published numerous articles in academic journals, including, the Rand Journal of Economics,
Marketing Science, the Journal of International Business Studies, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, the
International Journal of Forecasting, the European Management Journal, the European Journal of Operational
Research, the Journal of Marketing, the International Journal of Research in Marketing, and the Journal of
Marketing Research. He is also on the editorial boards of several academic journals.

Dr. Parker received his Ph.D. in Business Economics from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania
and has Masters degrees in Finance and Banking (University of Aix-Marseille) and Managerial Economics
(Wharton). His undergraduate degrees are in mathematics, biology and economics (minor in aeronautical
engineering). He has consulted and/or taught courses in Africa, the Middle East, Asia, Latin America, North America
and Europe.

                                         About this Series
This series was created for international firms who rely on foreign markets for a substantial portion of their business
or who might be threatened by international competition. The estimates given in this report were created using a
methodology developed by and implemented under the direct supervision of Professor Philip M. Parker, the Eli Lilly
Chaired Professor of Innovation, Business and Society, at INSEAD. The methodology relies on historical figures
across countries. Reported figures should be seen as estimates of past and future levels of latent demand.

Some of the methodologies and research approaches used in this report have benefited from the R&D Committee at
INSEAD, whose research support is gratefully acknowledged.                                                     ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc.

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Note: as statements and statistics in this report are forward-looking, the reader needs to read the
last chapter for disclaimers and user agreement provisions.                                                      ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc.
                                                                                         Contents         v

Table of Contents
1     INTRODUCTION & METHODOLOGY                                                                     11
    1.1     Overview and Definitions                                                                 11
    1.2     Market Potential Estimation Methodology                                                  11
       1.2.1    Overview                                                                             11
       1.2.2    What is Latent Demand and the P.I.E.?                                                12
       1.2.3    The Methodology                                                                      12
    Step 1. Product Definition and Data Collection                                  14
    Step 2. Filtering and Smoothing                                                 15
    Step 3. Filling in Missing Values                                               15
    Step 4. Varying Parameter, Non-linear Estimation                                15
    Step 5. Fixed-Parameter Linear Estimation                                       16
    Step 6. Aggregation and Benchmarking                                            16
2     USING THE DATA                                                                                 17
3     CITY SEGMENTS RANKED BY MARKET SIZE                                                            18
    3.1    Top 15 Markets                                                                            18
    3.2    Markets 16 to 30                                                                          19
    3.3    Remaining Cities by Market Rank                                                           20
4     CITY SEGMENTS IN ALPHABETICAL ORDER                                                           123
    4.1    A: from Aalborg to Az Zawiyah                                                            123
    4.2    B: from Bacolod to Bydgoszcz                                                             130
    4.3    C: from Caaguazu to Cyangugu                                                             138
    4.4    D: from Da Nang to Dzhizak                                                               146
    4.5    E: from East London to Esteli                                                            150
    4.6    F: from Fagatogo to Funchal                                                              152
    4.7    G: from Gabes to Gyumri                                                                  155
    4.8    H: from Hachinohe to Hyderabad                                                           159
    4.9    I: from Iasi to Izmir                                                                    163
    4.10   J: from Jaboatao to Jyvaskyla                                                            166
    4.11   K: from Kabul to Kzyl-Orda                                                               168
    4.12   L: from La Ceiba to Lyon                                                                 176
    4.13   M: from Macae to Mzuzu                                                                   181
    4.14   N: from Nacala to Nzerekore                                                              191
    4.15   O: from Oaklahoma City to Oyem                                                           196
    4.16   Ö: from Örebro to Örebro                                                                 198
    4.17   P: from Pago Pago to Pyuthan                                                             199
    4.18   Q: from Qandahar to Quito                                                                205
    4.19   R: from Rabat to Rustavi                                                                 206
    4.20   S: from S. Luis Potosi to Szombathely                                                    209
    4.21   T: from Tabligbo to Tyre                                                                 221
    4.22   U: from Uberaba to Utulei                                                                228
    4.23   V: from Vacoas-Phoenix to Vukovar                                                        230
    4.24   W: from Wadi Medani to Wuhan                                                             233
    4.25   X: from Xalapa to Xi'an                                                                  234
    4.26   Y: from Yamagata to Yungkang                                                             235
    4.27   Z: from Zadar to Zvishavane                                                              236
5     CITY SEGMENTS RANKED BY COUNTRY                                                               237
    5.1    Afghanistan                                                                              237
    5.2    Albania                                                                                  237                                                 ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc.
                                                     Contents         vi

  5.3    Algeria                                                238
  5.4    American Samoa                                         238
  5.5    Andorra                                                238
  5.6    Angola                                                 239
  5.7    Antigua and Barbuda                                    239
  5.8    Argentina                                              240
  5.9    Armenia                                                241
  5.10   Aruba                                                  241
  5.11   Australia                                              242
  5.12   Austria                                                242
  5.13   Azerbaijan                                             243
  5.14   Bahrain                                                243
  5.15   Bangladesh                                             243
  5.16   Barbados                                               244
  5.17   Belarus                                                244
  5.18   Belgium                                                244
  5.19   Belize                                                 245
  5.20   Benin                                                  245
  5.21   Bermuda                                                245
  5.22   Bhutan                                                 246
  5.23   Bolivia                                                246
  5.24   Bosnia and Herzegovina                                 246
  5.25   Botswana                                               247
  5.26   Brazil                                                 248
  5.27   Brunei                                                 253
  5.28   Bulgaria                                               253
  5.29   Burkina Faso                                           254
  5.30   Burma                                                  254
  5.31   Burundi                                                254
  5.32   Cambodia                                               255
  5.33   Cameroon                                               255
  5.34   Canada                                                 255
  5.35   Cape Verde                                             256
  5.36   Central African Republic                               256
  5.37   Chad                                                   256
  5.38   Chile                                                  257
  5.39   China                                                  257
  5.40   Christmas Island                                       258
  5.41   Colombia                                               258
  5.42   Comoros                                                258
  5.43   Congo (formerly Zaire)                                 259
  5.44   Cook Islands                                           259
  5.45   Costa Rica                                             259
  5.46   Cote d'Ivoire                                          260
  5.47   Croatia                                                260
  5.48   Cuba                                                   260
  5.49   Cyprus                                                 261
  5.50   Czech Republic                                         261
  5.51   Denmark                                                261
  5.52   Djibouti                                               262
  5.53   Dominica                                               262
  5.54   Dominican Republic                                     262
  5.55   Ecuador                                                263             ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc.
                                               Contents         vii

  5.56    Egypt                                           263
  5.57    El Salvador                                     263
  5.58    Equatorial Guinea                               264
  5.59    Estonia                                         264
  5.60    Ethiopia                                        264
  5.61    Fiji                                            265
  5.62    Finland                                         265
  5.63    France                                          266
  5.64    French Guiana                                   266
  5.65    French Polynesia                                267
  5.66    Gabon                                           267
  5.67    Georgia                                         267
  5.68    Germany                                         268
  5.69    Ghana                                           268
  5.70    Greece                                          269
  5.71    Greenland                                       269
  5.72    Grenada                                         269
  5.73    Guadeloupe                                      270
  5.74    Guam                                            270
  5.75    Guatemala                                       270
  5.76    Guinea                                          271
  5.77    Guinea-Bissau                                   271
  5.78    Guyana                                          271
  5.79    Haiti                                           272
  5.80    Honduras                                        272
  5.81    Hong Kong                                       272
  5.82    Hungary                                         273
  5.83    Iceland                                         273
  5.84    India                                           274
  5.85    Indonesia                                       275
  5.86    Iran                                            276
  5.87    Iraq                                            276
  5.88    Ireland                                         277
  5.89    Israel                                          277
  5.90    Italy                                           278
  5.91    Jamaica                                         278
  5.92    Japan                                           279
  5.93    Jordan                                          281
  5.94    Kazakhstan                                      282
  5.95    Kenya                                           282
  5.96    Kiribati                                        283
  5.97    Kuwait                                          283
  5.98    Kyrgyzstan                                      283
  5.99    Laos                                            283
  5.100   Latvia                                          284
  5.101   Lebanon                                         284
  5.102   Lesotho                                         284
  5.103   Liberia                                         285
  5.104   Libya                                           285
  5.105   Liechtenstein                                   285
  5.106   Lithuania                                       286
  5.107   Luxembourg                                      286
  5.108   Macau                                           286       ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc.
                                                   Contents         viii

  5.109   Madagascar                                          287
  5.110   Malawi                                              287
  5.111   Malaysia                                            288
  5.112   Maldives                                            288
  5.113   Mali                                                289
  5.114   Malta                                               289
  5.115   Marshall Islands                                    289
  5.116   Martinique                                          290
  5.117   Mauritania                                          290
  5.118   Mauritius                                           290
  5.119   Mexico                                              291
  5.120   Micronesia Federation                               292
  5.121   Moldova                                             292
  5.122   Monaco                                              292
  5.123   Mongolia                                            292
  5.124   Morocco                                             293
  5.125   Mozambique                                          293
  5.126   Namibia                                             293
  5.127   Nauru                                               294
  5.128   Nepal                                               294
  5.129   New Caledonia                                       294
  5.130   New Zealand                                         295
  5.131   Nicaragua                                           295
  5.132   Niger                                               296
  5.133   Nigeria                                             296
  5.134   Niue                                                296
  5.135   Norfolk Island                                      297
  5.136   North Korea                                         297
  5.137   Norway                                              297
  5.138   Oman                                                298
  5.139   Pakistan                       
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