The 2011 Report on Diaries, Time Planners and Organizers, Appointment Books, and Associated Refills Excluding Loose-Leaf Binders: World Market Segmentation by City

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The 2011 Report on Diaries, Time Planners and Organizers, Appointment Books, and Associated Refills Excluding Loose-Leaf Binders: World Market Segmentation by City Powered By Docstoc
					   The 2011 Report on Diaries, Time
           Planners and Organizers,
  Appointment Books, and Associated
        Refills Excluding Loose-Leaf
                            Binders:
  World Market Segmentation by City




                                         by
                              Philip M. Parker, Ph.D.
                      Chaired Professor of Management Science
                    INSEAD (Singapore and Fontainebleau, France)




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                                        About the Author
Dr. Philip M. Parker is the Eli Lilly Chaired Professor of Innovation, Business and Society at INSEAD where he has
taught courses on global competitive strategy since 1988. He has also taught courses at MIT, Stanford University,
Harvard University, UCLA, UCSD, and the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. Professor Parker is
the author of six books on the economic convergence of nations. These books introduce the notion of
“physioeconomics” which foresees a lack of global convergence in economic behaviors due to physiological and
physiographic forces. His latest book is "Physioeconomics: The Basis for Long-Run Economic Growth" (MIT Press
2000). He has also published numerous articles in academic journals, including, the Rand Journal of Economics,
Marketing Science, the Journal of International Business Studies, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, the
International Journal of Forecasting, the European Management Journal, the European Journal of Operational
Research, the Journal of Marketing, the International Journal of Research in Marketing, and the Journal of
Marketing Research. He is also on the editorial boards of several academic journals.

Dr. Parker received his Ph.D. in Business Economics from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania
and has Masters degrees in Finance and Banking (University of Aix-Marseille) and Managerial Economics
(Wharton). His undergraduate degrees are in mathematics, biology and economics (minor in aeronautical
engineering). He has consulted and/or taught courses in Africa, the Middle East, Asia, Latin America, North America
and Europe.


                                         About this Series
This series was created for international firms who rely on foreign markets for a substantial portion of their business
or who might be threatened by international competition. The estimates given in this report were created using a
methodology developed by and implemented under the direct supervision of Professor Philip M. Parker, the Eli Lilly
Chaired Professor of Innovation, Business and Society, at INSEAD. The methodology relies on historical figures
across countries. Reported figures should be seen as estimates of past and future levels of latent demand.


                                      Acknowledgements
Some of the methodologies and research approaches used in this report have benefited from the R&D Committee at
INSEAD, whose research support is gratefully acknowledged.




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Note: as statements and statistics in this report are forward-looking, the reader needs to read the
last chapter for disclaimers and user agreement provisions.




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                                                                                         Contents         v


Table of Contents
1     INTRODUCTION & METHODOLOGY                                                                     11
    1.1     Overview and Definitions                                                                 11
    1.2     Market Potential Estimation Methodology                                                  11
       1.2.1    Overview                                                                             11
       1.2.2    What is Latent Demand and the P.I.E.?                                                12
       1.2.3    The Methodology                                                                      12
          1.2.3.1    Step 1. Product Definition and Data Collection                                  14
          1.2.3.2    Step 2. Filtering and Smoothing                                                 15
          1.2.3.3    Step 3. Filling in Missing Values                                               15
          1.2.3.4    Step 4. Varying Parameter, Non-linear Estimation                                16
          1.2.3.5    Step 5. Fixed-Parameter Linear Estimation                                       16
          1.2.3.6    Step 6. Aggregation and Benchmarking                                            16
2     USING THE DATA                                                                                 17
3     CITY SEGMENTS RANKED BY MARKET SIZE                                                            18
    3.1    Top 15 Markets                                                                            18
    3.2    Markets 16 to 30                                                                          19
    3.3    Remaining Cities by Market Rank                                                           20
4     CITY SEGMENTS IN ALPHABETICAL ORDER                                                           123
    4.1    A: from Aalborg to Az Zawiyah                                                            123
    4.2    B: from Bacolod to Bydgoszcz                                                             130
    4.3    C: from Caaguazu to Cyangugu                                                             138
    4.4    D: from Da Nang to Dzhizak                                                               146
    4.5    E: from East London to Esteli                                                            150
    4.6    F: from Fagatogo to Funchal                                                              152
    4.7    G: from Gabes to Gyumri                                                                  155
    4.8    H: from Hachinohe to Hyderabad                                                           159
    4.9    I: from Iasi to Izmir                                                                    163
    4.10   J: from Jaboatao to Jyvaskyla                                                            166
    4.11   K: from Kabul to Kzyl-Orda                                                               169
    4.12   L: from La Ceiba to Lyon                                                                 177
    4.13   M: from Macae to Mzuzu                                                                   183
    4.14   N: from Nacala to Nzerekore                                                              193
    4.15   O: from Oaklahoma City to Oyem                                                           198
    4.16   Ö: from Örebro to Örebro                                                                 200
    4.17   P: from Pago Pago to Pyuthan                                                             201
    4.18   Q: from Qandahar to Quito                                                                208
    4.19   R: from Rabat to Rustavi                                                                 209
    4.20   S: from S. Luis Potosi to Szombathely                                                    212
    4.21   T: from Tabligbo to Tyre                                                                 224
    4.22   U: from Uberaba to Utulei                                                                231
    4.23   V: from Vacoas-Phoenix to Vukovar                                                        233
    4.24   W: from Wadi Medani to Wuhan                                                             236
    4.25   X: from Xalapa to Xi'an                                                                  237
    4.26   Y: from Yamagata to Yungkang                                                             238
    4.27   Z: from Zadar to Zvishavane                                                              239
5     CITY SEGMENTS RANKED BY COUNTRY                                                               240
    5.1    Afghanistan                                                                              240
    5.2    Albania                                                                                  240


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  5.3    Algeria                                                241
  5.4    American Samoa                                         241
  5.5    Andorra                                                241
  5.6    Angola                                                 242
  5.7    Antigua and Barbuda                                    242
  5.8    Argentina                                              243
  5.9    Armenia                                                244
  5.10   Aruba                                                  244
  5.11   Australia                                              245
  5.12   Austria                                                245
  5.13   Azerbaijan                                             246
  5.14   Bahrain                                                246
  5.15   Bangladesh                                             247
  5.16   Barbados                                               247
  5.17   Belarus                                                248
  5.18   Belgium                                                248
  5.19   Belize                                                 249
  5.20   Benin                                                  249
  5.21   Bermuda                                                249
  5.22   Bhutan                                                 250
  5.23   Bolivia                                                250
  5.24   Bosnia and Herzegovina                                 250
  5.25   Botswana                                               251
  5.26   Brazil                                                 252
  5.27   Brunei                                                 257
  5.28   Bulgaria                                               257
  5.29   Burkina Faso                                           258
  5.30   Burma                                                  258
  5.31   Burundi                                                258
  5.32   Cambodia                                               259
  5.33   Cameroon                                               259
  5.34   Canada                                                 260
  5.35   Cape Verde                                             260
  5.36   Central African Republic                               261
  5.37   Chad                                                   261
  5.38   Chile                                                  262
  5.39   China                                                  262
  5.40   Christmas Island                                       263
  5.41   Colombia                                               263
  5.42   Comoros                                                263
  5.43   Congo (formerly Zaire)                                 264
  5.44   Cook Islands                                           264
  5.45   Costa Rica                                             264
  5.46   Cote d'Ivoire                                          265
  5.47   Croatia                                                265
  5.48   Cuba                                                   266
  5.49   Cyprus                                                 266
  5.50   Czech Republic                                         267
  5.51   Denmark                                                267
  5.52   Djibouti                                               268
  5.53   Dominica                                               268
  5.54   Dominican Republic                                     268
  5.55   Ecuador                                                269


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  5.56    Egypt                                           269
  5.57    El Salvador                                     270
  5.58    Equatorial Guinea                               270
  5.59    Estonia                                         270
  5.60    Ethiopia                                        271
  5.61    Fiji                                            271
  5.62    Finland                                         272
  5.63    France                                          272
  5.64    French Guiana                                   273
  5.65    French Polynesia                                273
  5.66    Gabon                                           273
  5.67    Georgia                                         274
  5.68    Germany                                         274
  5.69    Ghana                                           275
  5.70    Greece                                          275
  5.71    Greenland                                       276
  5.72    Grenada                                         276
  5.73    Guadeloupe                                      277
  5.74    Guam                                            277
  5.75    Guatemala                                       278
  5.76    Guinea                                          278
  5.77    Guinea-Bissau                                   278
  5.78    Guyana                                          279
  5.79    Haiti                                           279
  5.80    Honduras                                        279
  5.81    Hong Kong                                       280
  5.82    Hungary                                         280
  5.83    Iceland                                         280
  5.84    India                                           281
  5.85    Indonesia                                       282
  5.86    Iran                                            283
  5.87    Iraq                                            283
  5.88    Ireland                                         284
  5.89    Israel                                          284
  5.90    Italy                                           285
  5.91    Jamaica                                         285
  5.92    Japan                                           286
  5.93    Jordan                                          289
  5.94    Kazakhstan                                      289
  5.95    Kenya                                           290
  5.96    Kiribati                                        290
  5.97    Kuwait                                          290
  5.98    Kyrgyzstan                                      291
  5.99    Laos                                            291
  5.100   Latvia                                          291
  5.101   Lebanon                                         292
  5.102   Lesotho                                         292
  5.103   Liberia                                         292
  5.104   Libya                                           293
  5.105   Liechtenstein                                   293
  5.106   Lithuania                                       293
  5.107   Luxembourg                                      294
  5.108   Macau                                           294


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  5.109   Madagascar                                          294
  5.110   Malawi                                              295
  5.111   Malaysia                                            295
  5.112   Maldives                                            296
  5.113   Mali                                                296
  5.114   Malta                                               296
  5.115   Marshall Islands                                    297
  5.116   Martinique                                          297
  5.117   Mauritania                                          297
  5.118   Mauritius                                           298
  5.119   Mexico                                              299
  5.120   Micronesia Federation                               300
  5.121   Moldova                                             300
  5.122   Monaco                                              300
  5.123   Mongolia                                            301
  5.124   Morocco                                             301
  5.125   Mozambique                                          302
  5.126   Namibia                                             302
  5.127   Nauru                                               302
  5.128   Nepal                                               303
  5.129   New Caledonia                                       303
  5.130   New Zealand                                         304
  5.131   Nicaragua                                           304
  5.132   Niger                                               305
  5.133   Nigeria                                             305
  5.134   Niue                                                306
  5.135   Norfolk Island                                      306
  5.136   North Korea                                         306
  5.137   Norway                                              307
  5.138   Oman                                                307
  5.139   Pakistan                                            308
  5.140   Palau                                               308
  5.141   Palestine                                           308
  5.142   Panama                                              309
  5.143   Papua New Guinea                                    309
  5.144   Paraguay                                            310
  5.145   Peru                                                310
  5.146   Philippines               
				
DOCUMENT INFO
Description: This report was created for global strategic planners who cannot be content with traditional methods of segmenting world markets. With the advent of a “borderless world”, cities become a more important criteria in prioritizing markets, as opposed to regions, continents, or countries. This report covers the top 2000 cities in over 200 countries. It does so by reporting the estimated market size (in terms of latent demand) for each major city of the world. It then ranks these cities and reports them in terms of their size as a percent of the country where they are located, their geographic region (e.g. Africa, Asia, Europe, Middle East, North America, Latin America), and the total world market. In performing various economic analyses for its clients, I have been occasionally asked to investigate the market potential for various products and services across cities. The purpose of the studies is to understand the density of demand within a country and the extent to which a city might be used as a point of distribution within its region. From an economic perspective, however, a city does not represent a population within rigid geographical boundaries. To an economist or strategic planner, a city represents an area of dominant influence over markets in adjacent areas. This influence varies from one industry to another, but also from one period of time to another. In what follows, I summarize the economic potential for the world's major cities for "diaries, time planners and organizers, appointment books, and associated refills excluding loose-leaf binders" for the year 2011. The goal of this report is to report my findings on the real economic potential, or what an economist calls the latent demand, represented by a city when defined as an area of dominant influence. The reader needs to realize that latent demand may or may not represent real sales. For many items, latent demand is clearly observable in sales, as in the case for food or housing items. Consider,
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