This report was created for global strategic planners who cannot be content with traditional methods of segmenting world markets. With the advent of a “borderless world”, cities become a more important criteria in prioritizing markets, as opposed to regions, continents, or countries. This report covers the top 2000 cities in over 200 countries. It does so by reporting the estimated market size (in terms of latent demand) for each major city of the world. It then ranks these cities and reports them in terms of their size as a percent of the country where they are located, their geographic region (e.g. Africa, Asia, Europe, Middle East, North America, Latin America), and the total world market.
In performing various economic analyses for its clients, I have been occasionally asked to investigate the market potential for various products and services across cities. The purpose of the studies is to understand the density of demand within a country and the extent to which a city might be used as a point of distribution within its region. From an economic perspective, however, a city does not represent a population within rigid geographical boundaries. To an economist or strategic planner, a city represents an area of dominant influence over markets in adjacent areas. This influence varies from one industry to another, but also from one period of time to another.
In what follows, I summarize the economic potential for the world's major cities for "detergent bars" for the year 2011. The goal of this report is to report my findings on the real economic potential, or what an economist calls the latent demand, represented by a city when defined as an area of dominant influence. The reader needs to realize that latent demand may or may not represent real sales. For many items, latent demand is clearly observable in sales, as in the case for food or housing items. Consider, however, the category "satellite launch vehicles". Clearly, there are no launch pads in most ci
The 2011 Report on Detergent Bars: World Market Segmentation by City by Philip M. Parker, Ph.D. Chaired Professor of Management Science INSEAD (Singapore and Fontainebleau, France) www.icongrouponline.com ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc. ii COPYRIGHT NOTICE 00052023-3G All of ICON Group International, Inc. publications are copyrighted. Copying our publications in whole or in part, for whatever reason, is a violation of copyrights laws and can lead to penalties and fines. Should you want to copy tables, graphs or other materials from our publications, please contact us to request permission. ICON Group International, Inc. often grants permission for very limited reproduction of our publications for internal use, press releases, and academic research. Such reproduction requires, however, confirmed permission from ICON Group International, Inc. Please read the full copyright notice, disclaimer, and user agreement provisions at the end of this report. IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER Neither ICON Group International, Inc. nor its employees can be held accountable for the use and subsequent actions of the user of the information provided in this publication. Great efforts have been made to ensure the accuracy of the data, but we can not guarantee, given the volume of information, accuracy. Since the information given in this report is forward-looking, the reader should read the disclaimer statement and user agreement provisions at the end of this report. www.icongrouponline.com ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc. iii About the Author Dr. Philip M. Parker is the Eli Lilly Chaired Professor of Innovation, Business and Society at INSEAD where he has taught courses on global competitive strategy since 1988. He has also taught courses at MIT, Stanford University, Harvard University, UCLA, UCSD, and the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. Professor Parker is the author of six books on the economic convergence of nations. These books introduce the notion of “physioeconomics” which foresees a lack of global convergence in economic behaviors due to physiological and physiographic forces. His latest book is "Physioeconomics: The Basis for Long-Run Economic Growth" (MIT Press 2000). He has also published numerous articles in academic journals, including, the Rand Journal of Economics, Marketing Science, the Journal of International Business Studies, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, the International Journal of Forecasting, the European Management Journal, the European Journal of Operational Research, the Journal of Marketing, the International Journal of Research in Marketing, and the Journal of Marketing Research. He is also on the editorial boards of several academic journals. Dr. Parker received his Ph.D. in Business Economics from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania and has Masters degrees in Finance and Banking (University of Aix-Marseille) and Managerial Economics (Wharton). His undergraduate degrees are in mathematics, biology and economics (minor in aeronautical engineering). He has consulted and/or taught courses in Africa, the Middle East, Asia, Latin America, North America and Europe. About this Series This series was created for international firms who rely on foreign markets for a substantial portion of their business or who might be threatened by international competition. The estimates given in this report were created using a methodology developed by and implemented under the direct supervision of Professor Philip M. Parker, the Eli Lilly Chaired Professor of Innovation, Business and Society, at INSEAD. The methodology relies on historical figures across countries. Reported figures should be seen as estimates of past and future levels of latent demand. Acknowledgements Some of the methodologies and research approaches used in this report have benefited from the R&D Committee at INSEAD, whose research support is gratefully acknowledged. www.icongrouponline.com ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc. iv About Icon Group International, Inc. Icon Group International, Inc.’s primary mission is to assist managers with their international information needs using forward-looking economic analysis. Icon Group has field offices in San Diego, Paris, Singapore, Hong Kong, and Lomé, Togo (West Africa). Icon Group has published hundreds of multi-client databases and global/regional market data, industry, and country publications. Global/Regional Management Studies: Summarizing over 210 countries, management studies are generally organized into regional volumes and cover key management functions. 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Covering over 190 countries, each study consists of forward-looking analysis, statistics, forecasts, and information of relevance to managers. The studies are continually updated to ensure that the reports have the most relevant information available. In addition to raw information, the reports provide relevant analyses which put a more general perspective on a country (seen in the context of relative performance vis-à-vis benchmarks). Industry & Trade Studies: Companies are racing to become more international, if not global in their strategies. For over 2000 product/industry categories, these reports give the reader a concise summary of latent market forecasts, pro-forma financials, import competition profiles, key references, and trends across 200 countries of the world. Some reports focus on a particular product and region (up to four regions per product), while others focus on a product within a particular country. Intranet Subscriptions: Icon Group International, Inc. now offers full intranet subscriptions which brings millions of dollars of high-end global market research to the manager’s personal computer. For more information, please contact Icon Group via our web site: www.icongrouponline.com, or please email: email@example.com. In addition to these reports, Icon Group publishes similar studies for other product categories, issue areas, regions of the world, countries, cities and states (in the case of the United States). If you wish to receive a report that is customized or addressing a particular issue, feel free to contact Icon Group: Icon Group International, Inc. Customer Service 9606 Tierra Grande St., Suite 205 San Diego, CA 92126 USA Fax: 858-635-9414 Email: firstname.lastname@example.org URL: www.icongrouponline.com Note: as statements and statistics in this report are forward-looking, the reader needs to read the last chapter for disclaimers and user agreement provisions. www.icongrouponline.com ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc. Contents v Table of Contents 1 INTRODUCTION & METHODOLOGY 11 1.1 Overview and Definitions 11 1.2 Market Potential Estimation Methodology 11 1.2.1 Overview 11 1.2.2 What is Latent Demand and the P.I.E.? 12 1.2.3 The Methodology 12 126.96.36.199 Step 1. Product Definition and Data Collection 14 188.8.131.52 Step 2. Filtering and Smoothing 14 184.108.40.206 Step 3. Filling in Missing Values 15 220.127.116.11 Step 4. Varying Parameter, Non-linear Estimation 15 18.104.22.168 Step 5. Fixed-Parameter Linear Estimation 16 22.214.171.124 Step 6. Aggregation and Benchmarking 16 2 USING THE DATA 17 3 CITY SEGMENTS RANKED BY MARKET SIZE 18 3.1 Top 15 Markets 18 3.2 Markets 16 to 30 19 3.3 Remaining Cities by Market Rank 20 4 CITY SEGMENTS IN ALPHABETICAL ORDER 123 4.1 A: from Aalborg to Az Zawiyah 123 4.2 B: from Bacolod to Bydgoszcz 130 4.3 C: from Caaguazu to Cyangugu 138 4.4 D: from Da Nang to Dzhizak 146 4.5 E: from East London to Esteli 150 4.6 F: from Fagatogo to Funchal 152 4.7 G: from Gabes to Gyumri 155 4.8 H: from Hachinohe to Hyderabad 159 4.9 I: from Iasi to Izmir 163 4.10 J: from Jaboatao to Jyvaskyla 166 4.11 K: from Kabul to Kzyl-Orda 168 4.12 L: from La Ceiba to Lyon 176 4.13 M: from Macae to Mzuzu 181 4.14 N: from Nacala to Nzerekore 191 4.15 O: from Oaklahoma City to Oyem 196 4.16 Ö: from Örebro to Örebro 198 4.17 P: from Pago Pago to Pyuthan 199 4.18 Q: from Qandahar to Quito 205 4.19 R: from Rabat to Rustavi 206 4.20 S: from S. Luis Potosi to Szombathely 209 4.21 T: from Tabligbo to Tyre 221 4.22 U: from Uberaba to Utulei 228 4.23 V: from Vacoas-Phoenix to Vukovar 230 4.24 W: from Wadi Medani to Wuhan 233 4.25 X: from Xalapa to Xi'an 234 4.26 Y: from Yamagata to Yungkang 235 4.27 Z: from Zadar to Zvishavane 236 5 CITY SEGMENTS RANKED BY COUNTRY 237 5.1 Afghanistan 237 5.2 Albania 237 www.icongrouponline.com ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc. Contents vi 5.3 Algeria 238 5.4 American Samoa 238 5.5 Andorra 238 5.6 Angola 239 5.7 Antigua and Barbuda 239 5.8 Argentina 240 5.9 Armenia 241 5.10 Aruba 241 5.11 Australia 242 5.12 Austria 242 5.13 Azerbaijan 243 5.14 Bahrain 243 5.15 Bangladesh 243 5.16 Barbados 244 5.17 Belarus 244 5.18 Belgium 244 5.19 Belize 245 5.20 Benin 245 5.21 Bermuda 245 5.22 Bhutan 246 5.23 Bolivia 246 5.24 Bosnia and Herzegovina 246 5.25 Botswana 247 5.26 Brazil 248 5.27 Brunei 253 5.28 Bulgaria 253 5.29 Burkina Faso 254 5.30 Burma 254 5.31 Burundi 254 5.32 Cambodia 255 5.33 Cameroon 255 5.34 Canada 255 5.35 Cape Verde 256 5.36 Central African Republic 256 5.37 Chad 256 5.38 Chile 257 5.39 China 257 5.40 Christmas Island 258 5.41 Colombia 258 5.42 Comoros 258 5.43 Congo (formerly Zaire) 259 5.44 Cook Islands 259 5.45 Costa Rica 259 5.46 Cote d'Ivoire 260 5.47 Croatia 260 5.48 Cuba 260 5.49 Cyprus 261 5.50 Czech Republic 261 5.51 Denmark 261 5.52 Djibouti 262 5.53 Dominica 262 5.54 Dominican Republic 262 5.55 Ecuador 263 www.icongrouponline.com ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc. Contents vii 5.56 Egypt 263 5.57 El Salvador 263 5.58 Equatorial Guinea 264 5.59 Estonia 264 5.60 Ethiopia 264 5.61 Fiji 265 5.62 Finland 265 5.63 France 266 5.64 French Guiana 266 5.65 French Polynesia 267 5.66 Gabon 267 5.67 Georgia 267 5.68 Germany 268 5.69 Ghana 268 5.70 Greece 269 5.71 Greenland 269 5.72 Grenada 269 5.73 Guadeloupe 270 5.74 Guam 270 5.75 Guatemala 270 5.76 Guinea 271 5.77 Guinea-Bissau 271 5.78 Guyana 271 5.79 Haiti 272 5.80 Honduras 272 5.81 Hong Kong 272 5.82 Hungary 273 5.83 Iceland 273 5.84 India 274 5.85 Indonesia 275 5.86 Iran 276 5.87 Iraq 276 5.88 Ireland 277 5.89 Israel 277 5.90 Italy 278 5.91 Jamaica 278 5.92 Japan 279 5.93 Jordan 281 5.94 Kazakhstan 282 5.95 Kenya 282 5.96 Kiribati 283 5.97 Kuwait 283 5.98 Kyrgyzstan 283 5.99 Laos 283 5.100 Latvia 284 5.101 Lebanon 284 5.102 Lesotho 284 5.103 Liberia 285 5.104 Libya 285 5.105 Liechtenstein 285 5.106 Lithuania 286 5.107 Luxembourg 286 5.108 Macau 286 www.icongrouponline.com ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc. Contents viii 5.109 Madagascar 287 5.110 Malawi 287 5.111 Malaysia 288 5.112 Maldives 288 5.113 Mali 289 5.114 Malta 289 5.115 Marshall Islands 289 5.116 Martinique 290 5.117 Mauritania 290 5.118 Mauritius 290 5.119 Mexico 291 5.120 Micronesia Federation 292 5.121 Moldova 292 5.122 Monaco 292 5.123 Mongolia 292 5.124 Morocco 293 5.125 Mozambique 293 5.126 Namibia 293 5.127 Nauru 294 5.128 Nepal 294 5.129 New Caledonia 294 5.130 New Zealand 295 5.131 Nicaragua 295 5.132 Niger 296 5.133 Nigeria 296 5.134 Niue 296 5.135 Norfolk Island 297 5.136 North Korea 297 5.137 Norway 297 5.138 Oman 298 5.139 Pakistan
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