This report was created for global strategic planners who cannot be content with traditional methods of segmenting world markets. With the advent of a “borderless world”, cities become a more important criteria in prioritizing markets, as opposed to regions, continents, or countries. This report covers the top 2000 cities in over 200 countries. It does so by reporting the estimated market size (in terms of latent demand) for each major city of the world. It then ranks these cities and reports them in terms of their size as a percent of the country where they are located, their geographic region (e.g. Africa, Asia, Europe, Middle East, North America, Latin America), and the total world market.
In performing various economic analyses for its clients, I have been occasionally asked to investigate the market potential for various products and services across cities. The purpose of the studies is to understand the density of demand within a country and the extent to which a city might be used as a point of distribution within its region. From an economic perspective, however, a city does not represent a population within rigid geographical boundaries. To an economist or strategic planner, a city represents an area of dominant influence over markets in adjacent areas. This influence varies from one industry to another, but also from one period of time to another.
In what follows, I summarize the economic potential for the world's major cities for "bleached bristols weighing more than 150 grams per square meter excluding cotton fiber index and bogus" for the year 2011. The goal of this report is to report my findings on the real economic potential, or what an economist calls the latent demand, represented by a city when defined as an area of dominant influence. The reader needs to realize that latent demand may or may not represent real sales. For many items, latent demand is clearly observable in sales, as in the case for food or housing items. Consider, however
The 2011 Report on Bleached Bristols Weighing More Than 150 Grams Per Square Meter Excluding Cotton Fiber Index and Bogus: World Market Segmentation by City by Philip M. Parker, Ph.D. Chaired Professor of Management Science INSEAD (Singapore and Fontainebleau, France) www.icongrouponline.com ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc. ii COPYRIGHT NOTICE 00052385-2G All of ICON Group International, Inc. publications are copyrighted. Copying our publications in whole or in part, for whatever reason, is a violation of copyrights laws and can lead to penalties and fines. Should you want to copy tables, graphs or other materials from our publications, please contact us to request permission. ICON Group International, Inc. often grants permission for very limited reproduction of our publications for internal use, press releases, and academic research. Such reproduction requires, however, confirmed permission from ICON Group International, Inc. Please read the full copyright notice, disclaimer, and user agreement provisions at the end of this report. IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER Neither ICON Group International, Inc. nor its employees can be held accountable for the use and subsequent actions of the user of the information provided in this publication. Great efforts have been made to ensure the accuracy of the data, but we can not guarantee, given the volume of information, accuracy. Since the information given in this report is forward-looking, the reader should read the disclaimer statement and user agreement provisions at the end of this report. www.icongrouponline.com ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc. iii About the Author Dr. Philip M. Parker is the Eli Lilly Chaired Professor of Innovation, Business and Society at INSEAD where he has taught courses on global competitive strategy since 1988. He has also taught courses at MIT, Stanford University, Harvard University, UCLA, UCSD, and the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. Professor Parker is the author of six books on the economic convergence of nations. These books introduce the notion of “physioeconomics” which foresees a lack of global convergence in economic behaviors due to physiological and physiographic forces. His latest book is "Physioeconomics: The Basis for Long-Run Economic Growth" (MIT Press 2000). He has also published numerous articles in academic journals, including, the Rand Journal of Economics, Marketing Science, the Journal of International Business Studies, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, the International Journal of Forecasting, the European Management Journal, the European Journal of Operational Research, the Journal of Marketing, the International Journal of Research in Marketing, and the Journal of Marketing Research. He is also on the editorial boards of several academic journals. Dr. Parker received his Ph.D. in Business Economics from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania and has Masters degrees in Finance and Banking (University of Aix-Marseille) and Managerial Economics (Wharton). His undergraduate degrees are in mathematics, biology and economics (minor in aeronautical engineering). He has consulted and/or taught courses in Africa, the Middle East, Asia, Latin America, North America and Europe. About this Series This series was created for international firms who rely on foreign markets for a substantial portion of their business or who might be threatened by international competition. The estimates given in this report were created using a methodology developed by and implemented under the direct supervision of Professor Philip M. Parker, the Eli Lilly Chaired Professor of Innovation, Business and Society, at INSEAD. The methodology relies on historical figures across countries. Reported figures should be seen as estimates of past and future levels of latent demand. Acknowledgements Some of the methodologies and research approaches used in this report have benefited from the R&D Committee at INSEAD, whose research support is gratefully acknowledged. www.icongrouponline.com ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc. iv About Icon Group International, Inc. Icon Group International, Inc.’s primary mission is to assist managers with their international information needs using forward-looking economic analysis. Icon Group has field offices in San Diego, Paris, Singapore, Hong Kong, and Lomé, Togo (West Africa). Icon Group has published hundreds of multi-client databases and global/regional market data, industry, and country publications. Global/Regional Management Studies: Summarizing over 210 countries, management studies are generally organized into regional volumes and cover key management functions. The human resource series covers minimum wages, child labor, unionization, and collective bargaining. The international law series covers media control and censorship, search and seizure, and trial justice and punishment. The diversity management series covers a variety of environmental context drivers that effect global operations. These include women’s rights, children’s rights, discrimination/racism, and religious forces and risks. Global strategic planning studies cover economic risk assessments, political risk assessments, foreign direct investment strategy, intellectual property strategy, and export strategy. Financial management studies cover taxes and tariffs. Global marketing studies focus on target segments (e.g. seniors, children, women) and strategic marketing planning. Country Studies: Often managers need an in-depth, yet broad and up-to-date understanding of a country’s strategic market potential and situation before the first field trip or investment proposal. Covering over 190 countries, each study consists of forward-looking analysis, statistics, forecasts, and information of relevance to managers. The studies are continually updated to ensure that the reports have the most relevant information available. In addition to raw information, the reports provide relevant analyses which put a more general perspective on a country (seen in the context of relative performance vis-à-vis benchmarks). Industry & Trade Studies: Companies are racing to become more international, if not global in their strategies. For over 2000 product/industry categories, these reports give the reader a concise summary of latent market forecasts, pro-forma financials, import competition profiles, key references, and trends across 200 countries of the world. Some reports focus on a particular product and region (up to four regions per product), while others focus on a product within a particular country. Intranet Subscriptions: Icon Group International, Inc. now offers full intranet subscriptions which brings millions of dollars of high-end global market research to the manager’s personal computer. For more information, please contact Icon Group via our web site: www.icongrouponline.com, or please email: email@example.com. In addition to these reports, Icon Group publishes similar studies for other product categories, issue areas, regions of the world, countries, cities and states (in the case of the United States). If you wish to receive a report that is customized or addressing a particular issue, feel free to contact Icon Group: Icon Group International, Inc. Customer Service 9606 Tierra Grande St., Suite 205 San Diego, CA 92126 USA Fax: 858-635-9414 Email: firstname.lastname@example.org URL: www.icongrouponline.com Note: as statements and statistics in this report are forward-looking, the reader needs to read the last chapter for disclaimers and user agreement provisions. www.icongrouponline.com ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc. Contents v Table of Contents 1 INTRODUCTION & METHODOLOGY 11 1.1 Overview and Definitions 11 1.2 Market Potential Estimation Methodology 11 1.2.1 Overview 11 1.2.2 What is Latent Demand and the P.I.E.? 12 1.2.3 The Methodology 12 184.108.40.206 Step 1. Product Definition and Data Collection 14 220.127.116.11 Step 2. Filtering and Smoothing 15 18.104.22.168 Step 3. Filling in Missing Values 15 22.214.171.124 Step 4. Varying Parameter, Non-linear Estimation 16 126.96.36.199 Step 5. Fixed-Parameter Linear Estimation 16 188.8.131.52 Step 6. Aggregation and Benchmarking 17 2 USING THE DATA 18 3 CITY SEGMENTS RANKED BY MARKET SIZE 19 3.1 Top 15 Markets 19 3.2 Markets 16 to 30 20 3.3 Remaining Cities by Market Rank 21 4 CITY SEGMENTS IN ALPHABETICAL ORDER 124 4.1 A: from Aalborg to Az Zawiyah 124 4.2 B: from Bacolod to Bydgoszcz 131 4.3 C: from Caaguazu to Cyangugu 139 4.4 D: from Da Nang to Dzhizak 147 4.5 E: from East London to Esteli 151 4.6 F: from Fagatogo to Funchal 153 4.7 G: from Gabes to Gyumri 156 4.8 H: from Hachinohe to Hyderabad 160 4.9 I: from Iasi to Izmir 164 4.10 J: from Jaboatao to Jyvaskyla 167 4.11 K: from Kabul to Kzyl-Orda 170 4.12 L: from La Ceiba to Lyon 178 4.13 M: from Macae to Mzuzu 184 4.14 N: from Nacala to Nzerekore 194 4.15 O: from Oaklahoma City to Oyem 199 4.16 Ö: from Örebro to Örebro 201 4.17 P: from Pago Pago to Pyuthan 202 4.18 Q: from Qandahar to Quito 209 4.19 R: from Rabat to Rustavi 210 4.20 S: from S. Luis Potosi to Szombathely 213 4.21 T: from Tabligbo to Tyre 225 4.22 U: from Uberaba to Utulei 232 4.23 V: from Vacoas-Phoenix to Vukovar 234 4.24 W: from Wadi Medani to Wuhan 237 4.25 X: from Xalapa to Xi'an 238 4.26 Y: from Yamagata to Yungkang 239 4.27 Z: from Zadar to Zvishavane 240 5 CITY SEGMENTS RANKED BY COUNTRY 241 5.1 Afghanistan 241 5.2 Albania 241 www.icongrouponline.com ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc. Contents vi 5.3 Algeria 242 5.4 American Samoa 242 5.5 Andorra 242 5.6 Angola 243 5.7 Antigua and Barbuda 243 5.8 Argentina 244 5.9 Armenia 245 5.10 Aruba 245 5.11 Australia 246 5.12 Austria 246 5.13 Azerbaijan 247 5.14 Bahrain 247 5.15 Bangladesh 248 5.16 Barbados 248 5.17 Belarus 249 5.18 Belgium 249 5.19 Belize 250 5.20 Benin 250 5.21 Bermuda 250 5.22 Bhutan 251 5.23 Bolivia 251 5.24 Bosnia and Herzegovina 251 5.25 Botswana 252 5.26 Brazil 253 5.27 Brunei 258 5.28 Bulgaria 258 5.29 Burkina Faso 259 5.30 Burma 259 5.31 Burundi 259 5.32 Cambodia 260 5.33 Cameroon 260 5.34 Canada 261 5.35 Cape Verde 261 5.36 Central African Republic 262 5.37 Chad 262 5.38 Chile 263 5.39 China 263 5.40 Christmas Island 264 5.41 Colombia 264 5.42 Comoros 264 5.43 Congo (formerly Zaire) 265 5.44 Cook Islands 265 5.45 Costa Rica 265 5.46 Cote d'Ivoire 266 5.47 Croatia 266 5.48 Cuba 267 5.49 Cyprus 267 5.50 Czech Republic 268 5.51 Denmark 268 5.52 Djibouti 269 5.53 Dominica 269 5.54 Dominican Republic 269 5.55 Ecuador 270 www.icongrouponline.com ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc. Contents vii 5.56 Egypt 270 5.57 El Salvador 271 5.58 Equatorial Guinea 271 5.59 Estonia 271 5.60 Ethiopia 272 5.61 Fiji 272 5.62 Finland 273 5.63 France 273 5.64 French Guiana 274 5.65 French Polynesia 274 5.66 Gabon 274 5.67 Georgia 275 5.68 Germany 275 5.69 Ghana 276 5.70 Greece 276 5.71 Greenland 277 5.72 Grenada 277 5.73 Guadeloupe 278 5.74 Guam 278 5.75 Guatemala 279 5.76 Guinea 279 5.77 Guinea-Bissau 279 5.78 Guyana 280 5.79 Haiti 280 5.80 Honduras 280 5.81 Hong Kong 281 5.82 Hungary 281 5.83 Iceland 281 5.84 India 282 5.85 Indonesia 283 5.86 Iran 284 5.87 Iraq 284 5.88 Ireland 285 5.89 Israel 285 5.90 Italy 286 5.91 Jamaica 286 5.92 Japan 287 5.93 Jordan 290 5.94 Kazakhstan 290 5.95 Kenya 291 5.96 Kiribati 291 5.97 Kuwait 291 5.98 Kyrgyzstan 292 5.99 Laos 292 5.100 Latvia 292 5.101 Lebanon 293 5.102 Lesotho 293 5.103 Liberia 293 5.104 Libya 294 5.105 Liechtenstein 294 5.106 Lithuania 294 5.107 Luxembourg 295 5.108 Macau 295 www.icongrouponline.com ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc. Contents viii 5.109 Madagascar 295 5.110 Malawi 296 5.111 Malaysia 296 5.112 Maldives 297 5.113 Mali 297 5.114 Malta 297 5.115 Marshall Islands 298 5.116 Martinique 298 5.117 Mauritania 298 5.118 Mauritius 299 5.119 Mexico 300 5.120 Micronesia Federation 301 5.121 Moldova 301 5.122 Monaco 301 5.123 Mongolia 302 5.124 Morocco 302 5.125 Mozambique 303 5.126 Namibia 303 5.127 Nauru 303 5.128 Nepal 304 5.129 New Caledonia 304 5.130 New Zealand 305 5.131 Nicaragua 305 5.132 Niger 306 5.133 Nigeria 306 5.134 Niue 307 5.135 Norfolk Island 307 5.136 North Korea 307 5.137 Norway 308 5.138 Oman 308 5.139 Pakistan 309 5.140 Palau 309 5.141 Palestine 309 5.142 Panama 310 5.143 Papua New Guinea 310 5.144 Paraguay
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