This report was created for global strategic planners who cannot be content with traditional methods of segmenting world markets. With the advent of a “borderless world”, cities become a more important criteria in prioritizing markets, as opposed to regions, continents, or countries. This report covers the top 2000 cities in over 200 countries. It does so by reporting the estimated market size (in terms of latent demand) for each major city of the world. It then ranks these cities and reports them in terms of their size as a percent of the country where they are located, their geographic region (e.g. Africa, Asia, Europe, Middle East, North America, Latin America), and the total world market.
In performing various economic analyses for its clients, I have been occasionally asked to investigate the market potential for various products and services across cities. The purpose of the studies is to understand the density of demand within a country and the extent to which a city might be used as a point of distribution within its region. From an economic perspective, however, a city does not represent a population within rigid geographical boundaries. To an economist or strategic planner, a city represents an area of dominant influence over markets in adjacent areas. This influence varies from one industry to another, but also from one period of time to another.
In what follows, I summarize the economic potential for the world's major cities for "automatic test and measurement equipment" for the year 2011. The goal of this report is to report my findings on the real economic potential, or what an economist calls the latent demand, represented by a city when defined as an area of dominant influence. The reader needs to realize that latent demand may or may not represent real sales. For many items, latent demand is clearly observable in sales, as in the case for food or housing items. Consider, however, the category "satellite launch vehicles". Clearly, there are
The 2011 Report on Automatic Test and Measurement Equipment: World Market Segmentation by City by Philip M. Parker, Ph.D. Chaired Professor of Management Science INSEAD (Singapore and Fontainebleau, France) www.icongrouponline.com ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc. ii COPYRIGHT NOTICE 00052450-6G All of ICON Group International, Inc. publications are copyrighted. Copying our publications in whole or in part, for whatever reason, is a violation of copyrights laws and can lead to penalties and fines. Should you want to copy tables, graphs or other materials from our publications, please contact us to request permission. ICON Group International, Inc. often grants permission for very limited reproduction of our publications for internal use, press releases, and academic research. Such reproduction requires, however, confirmed permission from ICON Group International, Inc. Please read the full copyright notice, disclaimer, and user agreement provisions at the end of this report. IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER Neither ICON Group International, Inc. nor its employees can be held accountable for the use and subsequent actions of the user of the information provided in this publication. Great efforts have been made to ensure the accuracy of the data, but we can not guarantee, given the volume of information, accuracy. Since the information given in this report is forward-looking, the reader should read the disclaimer statement and user agreement provisions at the end of this report. www.icongrouponline.com ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc. iii About the Author Dr. Philip M. Parker is the Eli Lilly Chaired Professor of Innovation, Business and Society at INSEAD where he has taught courses on global competitive strategy since 1988. He has also taught courses at MIT, Stanford University, Harvard University, UCLA, UCSD, and the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. Professor Parker is the author of six books on the economic convergence of nations. These books introduce the notion of “physioeconomics” which foresees a lack of global convergence in economic behaviors due to physiological and physiographic forces. His latest book is "Physioeconomics: The Basis for Long-Run Economic Growth" (MIT Press 2000). He has also published numerous articles in academic journals, including, the Rand Journal of Economics, Marketing Science, the Journal of International Business Studies, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, the International Journal of Forecasting, the European Management Journal, the European Journal of Operational Research, the Journal of Marketing, the International Journal of Research in Marketing, and the Journal of Marketing Research. He is also on the editorial boards of several academic journals. Dr. Parker received his Ph.D. in Business Economics from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania and has Masters degrees in Finance and Banking (University of Aix-Marseille) and Managerial Economics (Wharton). His undergraduate degrees are in mathematics, biology and economics (minor in aeronautical engineering). He has consulted and/or taught courses in Africa, the Middle East, Asia, Latin America, North America and Europe. About this Series This series was created for international firms who rely on foreign markets for a substantial portion of their business or who might be threatened by international competition. The estimates given in this report were created using a methodology developed by and implemented under the direct supervision of Professor Philip M. Parker, the Eli Lilly Chaired Professor of Innovation, Business and Society, at INSEAD. The methodology relies on historical figures across countries. Reported figures should be seen as estimates of past and future levels of latent demand. Acknowledgements Some of the methodologies and research approaches used in this report have benefited from the R&D Committee at INSEAD, whose research support is gratefully acknowledged. www.icongrouponline.com ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc. iv About Icon Group International, Inc. Icon Group International, Inc.’s primary mission is to assist managers with their international information needs using forward-looking economic analysis. Icon Group has field offices in San Diego, Paris, Singapore, Hong Kong, and Lomé, Togo (West Africa). Icon Group has published hundreds of multi-client databases and global/regional market data, industry, and country publications. Global/Regional Management Studies: Summarizing over 210 countries, management studies are generally organized into regional volumes and cover key management functions. 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Customer Service 9606 Tierra Grande St., Suite 205 San Diego, CA 92126 USA Fax: 858-635-9414 Email: firstname.lastname@example.org URL: www.icongrouponline.com Note: as statements and statistics in this report are forward-looking, the reader needs to read the last chapter for disclaimers and user agreement provisions. www.icongrouponline.com ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc. Contents v Table of Contents 1 INTRODUCTION & METHODOLOGY 11 1.1 Overview and Definitions 11 1.2 Market Potential Estimation Methodology 11 1.2.1 Overview 11 1.2.2 What is Latent Demand and the P.I.E.? 12 1.2.3 The Methodology 12 126.96.36.199 Step 1. Product Definition and Data Collection 14 188.8.131.52 Step 2. Filtering and Smoothing 18 184.108.40.206 Step 3. Filling in Missing Values 18 220.127.116.11 Step 4. Varying Parameter, Non-linear Estimation 18 18.104.22.168 Step 5. Fixed-Parameter Linear Estimation 19 22.214.171.124 Step 6. Aggregation and Benchmarking 19 2 USING THE DATA 20 3 CITY SEGMENTS RANKED BY MARKET SIZE 21 3.1 Top 15 Markets 21 3.2 Markets 16 to 30 22 3.3 Remaining Cities by Market Rank 23 4 CITY SEGMENTS IN ALPHABETICAL ORDER 126 4.1 A: from Aalborg to Az Zawiyah 126 4.2 B: from Bacolod to Bydgoszcz 133 4.3 C: from Caaguazu to Cyangugu 141 4.4 D: from Da Nang to Dzhizak 149 4.5 E: from East London to Esteli 153 4.6 F: from Fagatogo to Funchal 155 4.7 G: from Gabes to Gyumri 158 4.8 H: from Hachinohe to Hyderabad 162 4.9 I: from Iasi to Izmir 166 4.10 J: from Jaboatao to Jyvaskyla 169 4.11 K: from Kabul to Kzyl-Orda 171 4.12 L: from La Ceiba to Lyon 179 4.13 M: from Macae to Mzuzu 184 4.14 N: from Nacala to Nzerekore 194 4.15 O: from Oaklahoma City to Oyem 199 4.16 Ö: from Örebro to Örebro 201 4.17 P: from Pago Pago to Pyuthan 202 4.18 Q: from Qandahar to Quito 208 4.19 R: from Rabat to Rustavi 209 4.20 S: from S. Luis Potosi to Szombathely 212 4.21 T: from Tabligbo to Tyre 224 4.22 U: from Uberaba to Utulei 231 4.23 V: from Vacoas-Phoenix to Vukovar 233 4.24 W: from Wadi Medani to Wuhan 236 4.25 X: from Xalapa to Xi'an 237 4.26 Y: from Yamagata to Yungkang 238 4.27 Z: from Zadar to Zvishavane 239 5 CITY SEGMENTS RANKED BY COUNTRY 240 5.1 Afghanistan 240 5.2 Albania 240 www.icongrouponline.com ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc. Contents vi 5.3 Algeria 241 5.4 American Samoa 241 5.5 Andorra 241 5.6 Angola 242 5.7 Antigua and Barbuda 242 5.8 Argentina 243 5.9 Armenia 244 5.10 Aruba 244 5.11 Australia 245 5.12 Austria 245 5.13 Azerbaijan 246 5.14 Bahrain 246 5.15 Bangladesh 246 5.16 Barbados 247 5.17 Belarus 247 5.18 Belgium 247 5.19 Belize 248 5.20 Benin 248 5.21 Bermuda 248 5.22 Bhutan 249 5.23 Bolivia 249 5.24 Bosnia and Herzegovina 249 5.25 Botswana 250 5.26 Brazil 251 5.27 Brunei 256 5.28 Bulgaria 256 5.29 Burkina Faso 257 5.30 Burma 257 5.31 Burundi 257 5.32 Cambodia 258 5.33 Cameroon 258 5.34 Canada 258 5.35 Cape Verde 259 5.36 Central African Republic 259 5.37 Chad 259 5.38 Chile 260 5.39 China 260 5.40 Christmas Island 261 5.41 Colombia 261 5.42 Comoros 261 5.43 Congo (formerly Zaire) 262 5.44 Cook Islands 262 5.45 Costa Rica 262 5.46 Cote d'Ivoire 263 5.47 Croatia 263 5.48 Cuba 263 5.49 Cyprus 264 5.50 Czech Republic 264 5.51 Denmark 264 5.52 Djibouti 265 5.53 Dominica 265 5.54 Dominican Republic 265 5.55 Ecuador 266 www.icongrouponline.com ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc. Contents vii 5.56 Egypt 266 5.57 El Salvador 266 5.58 Equatorial Guinea 267 5.59 Estonia 267 5.60 Ethiopia 267 5.61 Fiji 268 5.62 Finland 268 5.63 France 269 5.64 French Guiana 269 5.65 French Polynesia 270 5.66 Gabon 270 5.67 Georgia 270 5.68 Germany 271 5.69 Ghana 271 5.70 Greece 272 5.71 Greenland 272 5.72 Grenada 272 5.73 Guadeloupe 273 5.74 Guam 273 5.75 Guatemala 273 5.76 Guinea 274 5.77 Guinea-Bissau 274 5.78 Guyana 274 5.79 Haiti 275 5.80 Honduras 275 5.81 Hong Kong 275 5.82 Hungary 276 5.83 Iceland 276 5.84 India 277 5.85 Indonesia 278 5.86 Iran 279 5.87 Iraq 279 5.88 Ireland 280 5.89 Israel 280 5.90 Italy 281 5.91 Jamaica 281 5.92 Japan 282 5.93 Jordan 284 5.94 Kazakhstan 285 5.95 Kenya 285 5.96 Kiribati 286 5.97 Kuwait 286 5.98 Kyrgyzstan 286 5.99 Laos 286 5.100 Latvia 287 5.101 Lebanon 287 5.102 Lesotho 287 5.103 Liberia 288 5.104 Libya 288 5.105 Liechtenstein 288 5.106 Lithuania 289 5.107 Luxembourg 289 5.108 Macau 289 www.icongrouponline.com ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc. Contents viii 5.109 Madagascar 290 5.110 Malawi 290 5.111 Malaysia 291 5.112 Maldives 291 5.113 Mali 292 5.114 Malta 292 5.115 Marshall Islands 292 5.116 Martinique 293 5.117 Mauritania 293 5.118 Mauritius 293 5.119 Mexico 294 5.120 Micronesia Federation 295 5.121 Moldova 295 5.122 Monaco 295 5.123 Mongolia 295 5.124 Morocco 296 5.125 Mozambique 296 5.126 Namibia 296 5.127 Nauru 297 5.128 Nepal 297 5.129 New Caledonia 297 5.130 New Zealand 298 5.131 Nicaragua 298 5.132 Niger 299 5.133 Nigeria 299 5.134 Niue 299 5.135 Norfolk Island 300 5.136 North Korea 300 5.137 Norway 300 5.138 Oman 301 5.139 Pakistan
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