The 2011 Economic and Product
Market Databook for Toamasina,
Madagascar
by
Philip M. Parker, Ph.D.
Chaired Professor of Management Science
INSEAD (Singapore and Fontainebleau, France)
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About the Author
Dr. Philip M. Parker is the Eli Lilly Chaired Professor of Innovation, Business and Society at INSEAD where he has
taught courses on global competitive strategy since 1988. He has also taught courses at MIT, Stanford University,
Harvard University, UCLA, UCSD, and the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. Professor Parker is
the author of six books on the economic convergence of nations. These books introduce the notion of
“physioeconomics” which foresees a lack of global convergence in economic behaviors due to physiological and
physiographic forces. His latest book is "Physioeconomics: The Basis for Long-Run Economic Growth" (MIT Press
2000). He has also published numerous articles in academic journals, including, the Rand Journal of Economics,
Marketing Science, the Journal of International Business Studies, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, the
International Journal of Forecasting, the European Management Journal, the European Journal of Operational
Research, the Journal of Marketing, the International Journal of Research in Marketing, and the Journal of
Marketing Research. He is also on the editorial boards of several academic journals.
Dr. Parker received his Ph.D. in Business Economics from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania
and has Masters degrees in Finance and Banking (University of Aix-Marseille) and Managerial Economics
(Wharton). His undergraduate degrees are in mathematics, biology and economics (minor in aeronautical
engineering). He has consulted and/or taught courses in Africa, the Middle East, Asia, Latin America, North America
and Europe.
About this Series
This series was created for international firms who rely on foreign markets for a substantial portion of their business
or who might be threatened by international competition. The estimates given in this report were created using a
methodology developed by and implemented under the direct supervision of Professor Philip M. Parker, the Eli Lilly
Chaired Professor of Innovation, Business and Society, at INSEAD. The methodology relies on historical figures
across countries. Reported figures should be seen as estimates of past and future levels of latent demand.
Acknowledgements
Some of the methodologies and research approaches used in this report have benefited from the R&D Committee at
INSEAD, whose research support is gratefully acknowledged.
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Note: as statements and statistics in this report are forward-looking, the reader needs to read the last chapter for
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Contents v
Table of Contents
1 INTRODUCTION & METHODOLOGY 30
1.1 Overview & Methodology 30
1.2 Market Potential Estimation Methodology 30
1.2.1 Overview 30
1.2.2 What is Latent Demand and the P.I.E.? 31
1.2.3 The Methodology 31
1.2.3.1 Step 1. Product Definition and Data Collection 33
1.2.3.2 Step 2. Filtering and Smoothing 33
1.2.3.3 Step 3. Filling in Missing Values 34
1.2.3.4 Step 4. Varying Parameter, Non-linear Estimation 34
1.2.3.5 Step 5. Fixed-Parameter Linear Estimation 35
1.2.3.6 Step 6. Aggregation and Benchmarking 35
2 SUMMARY RANKINGS 36
3 ½ TO 1-INCH NYLON PLASTIC BUSHINGS 60
4 1 TO 2 MEGAWATT ENGINES 60
5 2 TO 5 MEGAWATT ENGINES 61
6 32 MW GRID-CONNECTED PV SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC SYSTEMS 61
7 54 MW SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC CELL/MODULE EXPORTS 62
8 60-MILLIGRAM CONTAINERS OF FROMAGE FRAIS 62
9 9 MW OFF-GRID SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC CONSUMER PRODUCTS 63
10 AC DRIVES 63
11 ADHESIVES AND SEALANTS 64
12 ADULT ENTERTAINMENT 64
13 ADVERTISING AGENCIES 65
14 AEROSPACE AND DEFENSE EQUIPMENT 65
15 AFTERMARKET PASSENGER CAR TIRES 66
16 AFTER-SUN MOISTURIZERS AND TAN-EXTENDER CREAMS 66
17 AGRICULTURAL CHEMICALS 67
18 AIR CONDITIONING AND REFRIGERATION EQUIPMENT 67
19 ALBUMS AND EPS 68
20 ALCOHOLIC COOLER BEVERAGES 68
21 ALES AND STOUTS 69
22 ALIMENTARY AND METABOLISM PHARMACEUTICALS 69
23 ALL MOUNTAIN SNOWBOARDS 70
24 ALUMINA REFINING 70
25 ALUMINUM DIE-CASTING FOUNDRIES 71
26 AMBIENT CANNED SPONGE PUDDING 71
27 AMMONIA-FREE SEMI-PERMANENT HAIR DYES 72
28 AMUSEMENT AND RECREATION SERVICES 72
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29 ANALGESICS 73
30 ANALOG CAMCORDERS 73
31 ANTHRACITE MINING 74
32 ANTIDEPRESSANT PHARMACEUTICALS 74
33 ANTIFREEZE 75
34 ANTIPERSPIRANTS AND DEODORANTS 75
35 ANTI-REFLECTIVE GLASS 76
36 ANTISEPTIC FIRST AID CREAMS, SPRAYS, AND WIPES 76
37 APPAREL AND ACCESSORIES 77
38 APPETIZERS AND DIPS 77
39 APPLES 78
40 APPLICATIONS SOFTWARE 78
41 APPLICATION-SPECIFIC INTEGRATED CIRCUITS (ASICS) 79
42 APPLICATOR TAMPONS 79
43 ARCHITECTURAL SERVICES 80
44 ART DEALERS 80
45 ASIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN BREADS 81
46 ATHLETIC FOOTWEAR 81
47 AUDIO COMPONENTS 82
48 AUTO AND HOME SUPPLY STORES 82
49 AVIATION SERVICES 83
50 BABY BOTTLES 83
51 BACON-FLAVORED POTATO CHIPS 84
52 BAGELS 84
53 BAGGED CHOCOLATE CANDY 85
54 BAKED GOODS 85
55 BAKERIES 86
56 BAKERY PRODUCTS 86
57 BAKING SODA TOOTHPASTE 87
58 BALLPOINT PENS 87
59 BANANAS 88
60 BAPS ROLLS 88
61 BAR SOAP 89
62 BASE CHEMICALS 89
63 BASMATI LONG GRAIN RICE 90
64 BATH ENHANCERS 90
65 BATTERY EGGS 91
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Contents vii
66 BEAUTY AND BARBER SHOPS 91
67 BEEF-FLAVORED POTATO CHIPS 92
68 BEER 92
69 BELUGA CAVIAR 93
70 BEVERAGE MAKERS 93
71 BICYCLES AND BICYCLE ACCESSORIES 94
72 BIOTECHNOLOGY 94
73 BITUMINOUS COAL 95
74 BLACK TEA IN BAGS 95
75 BLANCMANGE AND PUDDING MIX 96
76 BLANK AUDIO CASSETTES 96
77 BLENDED WHISKEY 97
78 BOARD GAMES AND PUZZLES 97
79 BOAT BUILDING 98
80 BODY CARE PRODUCTS 98
81 BOILERS 99
82 BOOK PUBLISHING 99
83 BOTTLED WATER 100
84 BOTTLES OF LAGER BEER 100
85 BOUILLON CUBES 101
86 BOUTIQUE HOTELS 101
87 BOXED PEN AND PENCIL SETS 102
88 BOYS' SCHOOL UNIFORMS 102
89 BRAS AND ALLIED GARMENTS 103
90 BREAD 103
91 BREAKFAST CEREALS 104
92 BREATH FRESHENING SPRAYS 104
93 BREWERIES 105
94 BRIEFCASES 105
95 BROADBAND INTERNET ACCESS 106
96 BROADWOVEN FABRIC FINISHING MILLS 106
97 BROOM, BRUSH, AND MOP MANUFACTURING 107
98 BROWN AND WHOLEMEAL BREAD 107
99 BUBBLE GUM 108
100 BUDWEISER LAGER BEER 108
101 BUILDING INSPECTION SERVICES 109
102 BUILT-IN ELECTRIC OVENS 109
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Contents viii
103 BULK DISPOSABLE DIAPERS 110
104 BUSES AND COACHES 110
105 BUSINESS SUPPORT SERVICES 111
106 BUTCHER SHOPS 111
107 BUTTER 112
108 CABLE AND DSL ROUTERS 112
109 CAD/CAM/CAE SOFTWARE 113
110 CAFES AND RESTAURANTS 113
111 CAJUN AND CARIBBEAN FOOD 114
112 CAKES AND PASTRIES 114
113 CALCIUM SUPPLEMENTS 115
114 CAMCORDERS 115
115 CAMERA AND PHOTOGRAPHIC SUPPLIES STORES 116
116 CAMPGROUNDS AND RECREATIONAL VEHICLE PARKS 116
117 CANAPÉ APPETIZERS 117
118 CANDLES 117
119 CANDY 118
120 CANNED BAKED BEANS 118
121 CANS OF LAGER BEER 119
122 CAR AUDIO SYSTEMS 119
123 CASHEWS 120
124 CASINOS AND GAMBLING 120
125 CAST IRON COOKWARE 121
126 CASUAL COMBINATION RESTAURANT/BARS 121
127 CAT FOOD 122
128 CD PLAYERS 122
129 CEILING LIGHT FIXTURES 123
130 CELLULAR TELEPHONES 123
131 CEMENT CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS 124
132 CEMETERIES AND CREMATORIES 124
133 CERAMIC HOUSEWARES 125
134 CHALKBOARDS 125
135 CHEESE MANUFACTURING 126
136 CHEMICALS 126
137 CHERRY-FLAVORED BOTTLED WATER 127
138 CHEWING GUM 127
139 CHICKEN PATTIES 128
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140 CHILDREN'S AND INFANTS' CLOTHING STORES 128
141 CHILLED PASTA 129
142 CHINA AND PORCELAIN 129
143 CHINESE SIDE DISHES 130
144 CHIPS AND CRISPS 130
145 CHLORINE BLEACH CLEANING PRODUCTS 131
146 CHOCOLATE COOKIE CANDY BARS 131
147 CHUTNEY 132
148 CIGARETTE MANUFACTURING 132
149 CIGARS AND CIGARILLOS 133
150 CITRUS FRUIT 133
151 CIVIL AEROSPACE EQUIPMENT 134
152 CLASSIC HANDBAGS 134
153 CLAY BUILDING PRODUCTS 135
154 CLIMBING ROPES 135
155 CLOTHES DRYERS 136
156 CLOTHING ACCESSORIES 136
157 CMOS IMAGE SENSORS 137
158 COATED OR LAMINATED PAPER MANUFACTURING 137
159 COD LIVER OIL DIETARY SUPPLEMENTS 138
160 COFFEE AND TEA MANUFACTURING 138
161 COIN-OPERATED LAUNDRIES AND DRY CLEANERS 139
162 COLAS 139
163 COLLECTION AGENCIES 140
164 COLOR COSMETICS 140
165 COMBINATION VCR/DVD PLAYERS 141
166 COMMERCIAL BAKERIES 141
167 COMMUNICATIONS SERVICES 142
168 COMPACT FLUORESCENT LIGHT BULBS 142
169 COMPLETE DRY DOG FOOD 143
170 COMPOUND COOKING OILS AND FATS 143
171 COMPUTER STORAGE DEVICE MANUFACTURING 144
172 CONCENTRATED LIQUID FABRIC SOFTENERS 144
173 CONCRETE PIPE MANUFACTURING 145
174 CONSOLE VIDEO GAMES 145
175 CONSTRUCTION AND ENGINEERING SERVICES 146
176 CONSUMER BATTERIES 146
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177 CONTACT LENSES 147
178 CONTINENTAL AND SPECIALTY PLANT BREAD 147
179 CONTINUOUS AIR FRESHENERS 148
180 CONTR