The 2011 Economic and Product Market Databook for Lusaka, Zambia

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					          The 2011 Economic and Product
            Market Databook for Lusaka,
                                Zambia




                                         by
                              Philip M. Parker, Ph.D.
                      Chaired Professor of Management Science
                    INSEAD (Singapore and Fontainebleau, France)




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                                        About the Author
Dr. Philip M. Parker is the Eli Lilly Chaired Professor of Innovation, Business and Society at INSEAD where he has
taught courses on global competitive strategy since 1988. He has also taught courses at MIT, Stanford University,
Harvard University, UCLA, UCSD, and the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. Professor Parker is
the author of six books on the economic convergence of nations. These books introduce the notion of
“physioeconomics” which foresees a lack of global convergence in economic behaviors due to physiological and
physiographic forces. His latest book is "Physioeconomics: The Basis for Long-Run Economic Growth" (MIT Press
2000). He has also published numerous articles in academic journals, including, the Rand Journal of Economics,
Marketing Science, the Journal of International Business Studies, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, the
International Journal of Forecasting, the European Management Journal, the European Journal of Operational
Research, the Journal of Marketing, the International Journal of Research in Marketing, and the Journal of
Marketing Research. He is also on the editorial boards of several academic journals.

Dr. Parker received his Ph.D. in Business Economics from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania
and has Masters degrees in Finance and Banking (University of Aix-Marseille) and Managerial Economics
(Wharton). His undergraduate degrees are in mathematics, biology and economics (minor in aeronautical
engineering). He has consulted and/or taught courses in Africa, the Middle East, Asia, Latin America, North America
and Europe.


                                         About this Series
This series was created for international firms who rely on foreign markets for a substantial portion of their business
or who might be threatened by international competition. The estimates given in this report were created using a
methodology developed by and implemented under the direct supervision of Professor Philip M. Parker, the Eli Lilly
Chaired Professor of Innovation, Business and Society, at INSEAD. The methodology relies on historical figures
across countries. Reported figures should be seen as estimates of past and future levels of latent demand.


                                      Acknowledgements
Some of the methodologies and research approaches used in this report have benefited from the R&D Committee at
INSEAD, whose research support is gratefully acknowledged.




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Table of Contents
1      INTRODUCTION & METHODOLOGY                                                                      30
     1.1 Overview & Methodology                                                                       30
     1.2 Market Potential Estimation Methodology                                                      30
        1.2.1    Overview                                                                             30
        1.2.2    What is Latent Demand and the P.I.E.?                                                31
        1.2.3    The Methodology                                                                      31
           1.2.3.1    Step 1. Product Definition and Data Collection                                  33
           1.2.3.2    Step 2. Filtering and Smoothing                                                 33
           1.2.3.3    Step 3. Filling in Missing Values                                               34
           1.2.3.4    Step 4. Varying Parameter, Non-linear Estimation                                34
           1.2.3.5    Step 5. Fixed-Parameter Linear Estimation                                       35
           1.2.3.6    Step 6. Aggregation and Benchmarking                                            35
2      SUMMARY RANKINGS                                                                                36
3      ½ TO 1-INCH NYLON PLASTIC BUSHINGS                                                              60
4      1 TO 2 MEGAWATT ENGINES                                                                         60
5      2 TO 5 MEGAWATT ENGINES                                                                         61
6      32 MW GRID-CONNECTED PV SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC SYSTEMS                                              61
7      54 MW SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC CELL/MODULE EXPORTS                                                    62
8      60-MILLIGRAM CONTAINERS OF FROMAGE FRAIS                                                        62
9      9 MW OFF-GRID SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC CONSUMER PRODUCTS                                              63
10     AC DRIVES                                                                                       63
11     ADHESIVES AND SEALANTS                                                                          64
12     ADULT ENTERTAINMENT                                                                             64
13     ADVERTISING AGENCIES                                                                            65
14     AEROSPACE AND DEFENSE EQUIPMENT                                                                 65
15     AFTERMARKET PASSENGER CAR TIRES                                                                 66
16     AFTER-SUN MOISTURIZERS AND TAN-EXTENDER CREAMS                                                  66
17     AGRICULTURAL CHEMICALS                                                                          67
18     AIR CONDITIONING AND REFRIGERATION EQUIPMENT                                                    67
19     ALBUMS AND EPS                                                                                  68
20     ALCOHOLIC COOLER BEVERAGES                                                                      68
21     ALES AND STOUTS                                                                                 69
22     ALIMENTARY AND METABOLISM PHARMACEUTICALS                                                       69
23     ALL MOUNTAIN SNOWBOARDS                                                                         70
24     ALUMINA REFINING                                                                                70
25     ALUMINUM DIE-CASTING FOUNDRIES                                                                  71
26     AMBIENT CANNED SPONGE PUDDING                                                                   71
27     AMMONIA-FREE SEMI-PERMANENT HAIR DYES                                                           72
28     AMUSEMENT AND RECREATION SERVICES                                                               72



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29   ANALGESICS                                                                       73
30   ANALOG CAMCORDERS                                                                73
31   ANTHRACITE MINING                                                                74
32   ANTIDEPRESSANT PHARMACEUTICALS                                                   74
33   ANTIFREEZE                                                                       75
34   ANTIPERSPIRANTS AND DEODORANTS                                                   75
35   ANTI-REFLECTIVE GLASS                                                            76
36   ANTISEPTIC FIRST AID CREAMS, SPRAYS, AND WIPES                                   76
37   APPAREL AND ACCESSORIES                                                          77
38   APPETIZERS AND DIPS                                                              77
39   APPLES                                                                           78
40   APPLICATIONS SOFTWARE                                                            78
41   APPLICATION-SPECIFIC INTEGRATED CIRCUITS (ASICS)                                 79
42   APPLICATOR TAMPONS                                                               79
43   ARCHITECTURAL SERVICES                                                           80
44   ART DEALERS                                                                      80
45   ASIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN BREADS                                                  81
46   ATHLETIC FOOTWEAR                                                                81
47   AUDIO COMPONENTS                                                                 82
48   AUTO AND HOME SUPPLY STORES                                                      82
49   AVIATION SERVICES                                                                83
50   BABY BOTTLES                                                                     83
51   BACON-FLAVORED POTATO CHIPS                                                      84
52   BAGELS                                                                           84
53   BAGGED CHOCOLATE CANDY                                                           85
54   BAKED GOODS                                                                      85
55   BAKERIES                                                                         86
56   BAKERY PRODUCTS                                                                  86
57   BAKING SODA TOOTHPASTE                                                           87
58   BALLPOINT PENS                                                                   87
59   BANANAS                                                                          88
60   BAPS ROLLS                                                                       88
61   BAR SOAP                                                                         89
62   BASE CHEMICALS                                                                   89
63   BASMATI LONG GRAIN RICE                                                          90
64   BATH ENHANCERS                                                                   90
65   BATTERY EGGS                                                                     91



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66   BEAUTY AND BARBER SHOPS                                             91
67   BEEF-FLAVORED POTATO CHIPS                                          92
68   BEER                                                                92
69   BELUGA CAVIAR                                                       93
70   BEVERAGE MAKERS                                                     93
71   BICYCLES AND BICYCLE ACCESSORIES                                    94
72   BIOTECHNOLOGY                                                       94
73   BITUMINOUS COAL                                                     95
74   BLACK TEA IN BAGS                                                   95
75   BLANCMANGE AND PUDDING MIX                                          96
76   BLANK AUDIO CASSETTES                                               96
77   BLENDED WHISKEY                                                     97
78   BOARD GAMES AND PUZZLES                                             97
79   BOAT BUILDING                                                       98
80   BODY CARE PRODUCTS                                                  98
81   BOILERS                                                             99
82   BOOK PUBLISHING                                                     99
83   BOTTLED WATER                                                      100
84   BOTTLES OF LAGER BEER                                              100
85   BOUILLON CUBES                                                     101
86   BOUTIQUE HOTELS                                                    101
87   BOXED PEN AND PENCIL SETS                                          102
88   BOYS' SCHOOL UNIFORMS                                              102
89   BRAS AND ALLIED GARMENTS                                           103
90   BREAD                                                              103
91   BREAKFAST CEREALS                                                  104
92   BREATH FRESHENING SPRAYS                                           104
93   BREWERIES                                                          105
94   BRIEFCASES                                                         105
95   BROADBAND INTERNET ACCESS                                          106
96   BROADWOVEN FABRIC FINISHING MILLS                                  106
97   BROOM, BRUSH, AND MOP MANUFACTURING                                107
98   BROWN AND WHOLEMEAL BREAD                                          107
99   BUBBLE GUM                                                         108
100 BUDWEISER LAGER BEER                                                108
101 BUILDING INSPECTION SERVICES                                        109
102 BUILT-IN ELECTRIC OVENS                                             109



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103 BULK DISPOSABLE DIAPERS                                                   110
104 BUSES AND COACHES                                                         110
105 BUSINESS SUPPORT SERVICES                                                 111
106 BUTCHER SHOPS                                                             111
107 BUTTER                                                                    112
108 CABLE AND DSL ROUTERS                                                     112
109 CAD/CAM/CAE SOFTWARE                                                      113
110 CAFES AND RESTAURANTS                                                     113
111 CAJUN AND CARIBBEAN FOOD                                                  114
112 CAKES AND PASTRIES                                                        114
113 CALCIUM SUPPLEMENTS                                                       115
114 CAMCORDERS                                                                115
115 CAMERA AND PHOTOGRAPHIC SUPPLIES STORES                                   116
116 CAMPGROUNDS AND RECREATIONAL VEHICLE PARKS                                116
117 CANAPÉ APPETIZERS                                                         117
118 CANDLES                                                                   117
119 CANDY                                                                     118
120 CANNED BAKED BEANS                                                        118
121 CANS OF LAGER BEER                                                        119
122 CAR AUDIO SYSTEMS                                                         119
123 CASHEWS                                                                   120
124 CASINOS AND GAMBLING                                                      120
125 CAST IRON COOKWARE                                                        121
126 CASUAL COMBINATION RESTAURANT/BARS                                        121
127 CAT FOOD                                                                  122
128 CD PLAYERS                                                                122
129 CEILING LIGHT FIXTURES                                                    123
130 CELLULAR TELEPHONES                                                       123
131 CEMENT CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS                                             124
132 CEMETERIES AND CREMATORIES                                                124
133 CERAMIC HOUSEWARES                                                        125
134 CHALKBOARDS                                                               125
135 CHEESE MANUFACTURING                                                      126
136 CHEMICALS                                                                 126
137 CHERRY-FLAVORED BOTTLED WATER                                             127
138 CHEWING GUM                                                               127
139 CHICKEN PATTIES                                                           128



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140 CHILDREN'S AND INFANTS' CLOTHING STORES                                 128
141 CHILLED PASTA                                                           129
142 CHINA AND PORCELAIN                                                     129
143 CHINESE SIDE DISHES                                                     130
144 CHIPS AND CRISPS                                                        130
145 CHLORINE BLEACH CLEANING PRODUCTS                                       131
146 CHOCOLATE COOKIE CANDY BARS                                             131
147 CHUTNEY                                                                 132
148 CIGARETTE MANUFACTURING                                                 132
149 CIGARS AND CIGARILLOS                                                   133
150 CITRUS FRUIT                                                            133
151 CIVIL AEROSPACE EQUIPMENT                                               134
152 CLASSIC HANDBAGS                                                        134
153 CLAY BUILDING PRODUCTS                                                  135
154 CLIMBING ROPES                                                          135
155 CLOTHES DRYERS                                                          136
156 CLOTHING ACCESSORIES                                                    136
157 CMOS IMAGE SENSORS                                                      137
158 COATED OR LAMINATED PAPER MANUFACTURING                                 137
159 COD LIVER OIL DIETARY SUPPLEMENTS                                       138
160 COFFEE AND TEA MANUFACTURING                                            138
161 COIN-OPERATED LAUNDRIES AND DRY CLEANERS                                139
162 COLAS                                                                   139
163 COLLECTION AGENCIES                                                     140
164 COLOR COSMETICS                                                         140
165 COMBINATION VCR/DVD PLAYERS                                             141
166 COMMERCIAL BAKERIES                                                     141
167 COMMUNICATIONS SERVICES                                                 142
168 COMPACT FLUORESCENT LIGHT BULBS                                         142
169 COMPLETE DRY DOG FOOD                                                   143
170 COMPOUND COOKING OILS AND FATS                                          143
171 COMPUTER STORAGE DEVICE MANUFACTURING                                   144
172 CONCENTRATED LIQUID FABRIC SOFTENERS                                    144
173 CONCRETE PIPE MANUFACTURING                                             145
174 CONSOLE VIDEO GAMES                                                     145
175 CONSTRUCTION AND ENGINEERING SERVICES                                   146
176 CONSUMER BATTERIES                                                      146



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177 CONTACT LENSES                                                                    147
178 CONTINENTAL AND SPECIALTY PLANT BREAD                                             147
179 CONTINUOUS AIR FRESHENERS                                                         148
180 CONTROL AND SUPPORT HOSIERY        
				
DOCUMENT INFO
Description: In performing various economic analyses for its clients, I have occasionally been asked to investigate the market potential for various products and services in Zambia. The purpose of this study is to understand the density of demand within Zambia and the extent to which Lusaka might be used as a point of distribution within Africa. From an economic perspective, however, Lusaka does not represent a population within rigid geographical boundaries, rather, it represents an area of dominant influence over markets in adjacent areas. This influence varies from one industry to another, but also from one period of time to another. In what follows, I summarize the economic potential for Lusaka over the next five years for hundreds of industries, categories and products. The goal of this report is to report the real economic potential, or what an economist calls the latent demand, represented by Lusaka when defined as an area of dominant influence. The reader needs to realize that latent demand may or may not represent real sales. For many items, latent demand is clearly observable in sales, as in the case for food or housing items. Consider, however, the category "satellite launch vehicles". Clearly, there are no launch pads in Lusaka used by the space industry to launch satellites. However, the core benefit of the vehicles (e.g. telecommunications, etc.) is "consumed" by the area served by Lusaka. Without Lusaka, in other words, the market for satellite launch vehicles would be lower for the population in Zambia, Africa, or the world in general. One needs to allocate, therefore, a portion of the worldwide economic demand for launch vehicles to both Africa and Lusaka.
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