In performing various economic analyses for its clients, I have occasionally been asked to investigate the market potential for various products and services in Tanzania. The purpose of this study is to understand the density of demand within Tanzania and the extent to which Dar es Salaam might be used as a point of distribution within Africa. From an economic perspective, however, Dar es Salaam does not represent a population within rigid geographical boundaries, rather, it represents an area of dominant influence over markets in adjacent areas. This influence varies from one industry to another, but also from one period of time to another.
In what follows, I summarize the economic potential for Dar es Salaam over the next five years for hundreds of industries, categories and products. The goal of this report is to report the real economic potential, or what an economist calls the latent demand, represented by Dar es Salaam when defined as an area of dominant influence. The reader needs to realize that latent demand may or may not represent real sales. For many items, latent demand is clearly observable in sales, as in the case for food or housing items. Consider, however, the category "satellite launch vehicles". Clearly, there are no launch pads in Dar es Salaam used by the space industry to launch satellites. However, the core benefit of the vehicles (e.g. telecommunications, etc.) is "consumed" by the area served by Dar es Salaam. Without Dar es Salaam, in other words, the market for satellite launch vehicles would be lower for the population in Tanzania, Africa, or the world in general. One needs to allocate, therefore, a portion of the worldwide economic demand for launch vehicles to both Africa and Dar es Salaam.
The 2011 Economic and Product Market Databook for Dar es Salaam, Tanzania by Philip M. Parker, Ph.D. Chaired Professor of Management Science INSEAD (Singapore and Fontainebleau, France) www.icongrouponline.com ©2011 ICON Group International, Inc. ii COPYRIGHT NOTICE 00053075-5G All of ICON Group International, Inc. publications are copyrighted. Copying our publications in whole or in part, for whatever reason, is a violation of copyrights laws and can lead to penalties and fines. Should you want to copy tables, graphs or other materials from our publications, please contact us to request permission. ICON Group International, Inc. often grants permission for very limited reproduction of our publications for internal use, press releases, and academic research. Such reproduction requires, however, confirmed permission from ICON Group International, Inc. Please read the full copyright notice, disclaimer, and user agreement provisions at the end of this report. IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER Neither ICON Group International, Inc. nor its employees can be held accountable for the use and subsequent actions of the user of the information provided in this publication. Great efforts have been made to ensure the accuracy of the data, but we can not guarantee, given the volume of information, accuracy. Since the information given in this report is forward-looking, the reader should read the disclaimer statement and user agreement provisions at the end of this report. www.icongrouponline.com ©2011 ICON Group International, Inc. iii About the Author Dr. Philip M. Parker is the Eli Lilly Chaired Professor of Innovation, Business and Society at INSEAD where he has taught courses on global competitive strategy since 1988. He has also taught courses at MIT, Stanford University, Harvard University, UCLA, UCSD, and the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. Professor Parker is the author of six books on the economic convergence of nations. These books introduce the notion of “physioeconomics” which foresees a lack of global convergence in economic behaviors due to physiological and physiographic forces. His latest book is "Physioeconomics: The Basis for Long-Run Economic Growth" (MIT Press 2000). He has also published numerous articles in academic journals, including, the Rand Journal of Economics, Marketing Science, the Journal of International Business Studies, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, the International Journal of Forecasting, the European Management Journal, the European Journal of Operational Research, the Journal of Marketing, the International Journal of Research in Marketing, and the Journal of Marketing Research. He is also on the editorial boards of several academic journals. Dr. Parker received his Ph.D. in Business Economics from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania and has Masters degrees in Finance and Banking (University of Aix-Marseille) and Managerial Economics (Wharton). His undergraduate degrees are in mathematics, biology and economics (minor in aeronautical engineering). He has consulted and/or taught courses in Africa, the Middle East, Asia, Latin America, North America and Europe. About this Series This series was created for international firms who rely on foreign markets for a substantial portion of their business or who might be threatened by international competition. The estimates given in this report were created using a methodology developed by and implemented under the direct supervision of Professor Philip M. Parker, the Eli Lilly Chaired Professor of Innovation, Business and Society, at INSEAD. The methodology relies on historical figures across countries. Reported figures should be seen as estimates of past and future levels of latent demand. Acknowledgements Some of the methodologies and research approaches used in this report have benefited from the R&D Committee at INSEAD, whose research support is gratefully acknowledged. www.icongrouponline.com ©2011 ICON Group International, Inc. iv About Icon Group International, Inc. Icon Group International, Inc.’s primary mission is to assist managers with their international information needs using forward-looking economic analysis. Icon Group has field offices in San Diego, Paris, Singapore, Hong Kong, and Lomé, Togo (West Africa). Icon Group has published hundreds of multi-client databases and global/regional market data, industry, and country publications. Global/Regional Management Studies: Summarizing over 210 countries, management studies are generally organized into regional volumes and cover key management functions. 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Customer Service 9606 Tierra Grande St., Suite 205 San Diego, CA 92126 USA Fax: 858-635-9414 Email: email@example.com URL: www.icongrouponline.com Note: as statements and statistics in this report are forward-looking, the reader needs to read the last chapter for disclaimers and user agreement provisions. www.icongrouponline.com ©2011 ICON Group International, Inc. Contents v Table of Contents 1 INTRODUCTION & METHODOLOGY 30 1.1 Overview & Methodology 30 1.2 Market Potential Estimation Methodology 30 1.2.1 Overview 30 1.2.2 What is Latent Demand and the P.I.E.? 31 1.2.3 The Methodology 31 220.127.116.11 Step 1. Product Definition and Data Collection 33 18.104.22.168 Step 2. Filtering and Smoothing 33 22.214.171.124 Step 3. Filling in Missing Values 34 126.96.36.199 Step 4. Varying Parameter, Non-linear Estimation 34 188.8.131.52 Step 5. Fixed-Parameter Linear Estimation 35 184.108.40.206 Step 6. Aggregation and Benchmarking 35 2 SUMMARY RANKINGS 36 3 ½ TO 1-INCH NYLON PLASTIC BUSHINGS 60 4 1 TO 2 MEGAWATT ENGINES 60 5 2 TO 5 MEGAWATT ENGINES 61 6 32 MW GRID-CONNECTED PV SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC SYSTEMS 61 7 54 MW SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC CELL/MODULE EXPORTS 62 8 60-MILLIGRAM CONTAINERS OF FROMAGE FRAIS 62 9 9 MW OFF-GRID SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC CONSUMER PRODUCTS 63 10 AC DRIVES 63 11 ADHESIVES AND SEALANTS 64 12 ADULT ENTERTAINMENT 64 13 ADVERTISING AGENCIES 65 14 AEROSPACE AND DEFENSE EQUIPMENT 65 15 AFTERMARKET PASSENGER CAR TIRES 66 16 AFTER-SUN MOISTURIZERS AND TAN-EXTENDER CREAMS 66 17 AGRICULTURAL CHEMICALS 67 18 AIR CONDITIONING AND REFRIGERATION EQUIPMENT 67 19 ALBUMS AND EPS 68 20 ALCOHOLIC COOLER BEVERAGES 68 21 ALES AND STOUTS 69 22 ALIMENTARY AND METABOLISM PHARMACEUTICALS 69 23 ALL MOUNTAIN SNOWBOARDS 70 24 ALUMINA REFINING 70 25 ALUMINUM DIE-CASTING FOUNDRIES 71 26 AMBIENT CANNED SPONGE PUDDING 71 27 AMMONIA-FREE SEMI-PERMANENT HAIR DYES 72 28 AMUSEMENT AND RECREATION SERVICES 72 www.icongrouponline.com ©2011 ICON Group International, Inc. Contents vi 29 ANALGESICS 73 30 ANALOG CAMCORDERS 73 31 ANTHRACITE MINING 74 32 ANTIDEPRESSANT PHARMACEUTICALS 74 33 ANTIFREEZE 75 34 ANTIPERSPIRANTS AND DEODORANTS 75 35 ANTI-REFLECTIVE GLASS 76 36 ANTISEPTIC FIRST AID CREAMS, SPRAYS, AND WIPES 76 37 APPAREL AND ACCESSORIES 77 38 APPETIZERS AND DIPS 77 39 APPLES 78 40 APPLICATIONS SOFTWARE 78 41 APPLICATION-SPECIFIC INTEGRATED CIRCUITS (ASICS) 79 42 APPLICATOR TAMPONS 79 43 ARCHITECTURAL SERVICES 80 44 ART DEALERS 80 45 ASIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN BREADS 81 46 ATHLETIC FOOTWEAR 81 47 AUDIO COMPONENTS 82 48 AUTO AND HOME SUPPLY STORES 82 49 AVIATION SERVICES 83 50 BABY BOTTLES 83 51 BACON-FLAVORED POTATO CHIPS 84 52 BAGELS 84 53 BAGGED CHOCOLATE CANDY 85 54 BAKED GOODS 85 55 BAKERIES 86 56 BAKERY PRODUCTS 86 57 BAKING SODA TOOTHPASTE 87 58 BALLPOINT PENS 87 59 BANANAS 88 60 BAPS ROLLS 88 61 BAR SOAP 89 62 BASE CHEMICALS 89 63 BASMATI LONG GRAIN RICE 90 64 BATH ENHANCERS 90 65 BATTERY EGGS 91 www.icongrouponline.com ©2011 ICON Group International, Inc. Contents vii 66 BEAUTY AND BARBER SHOPS 91 67 BEEF-FLAVORED POTATO CHIPS 92 68 BEER 92 69 BELUGA CAVIAR 93 70 BEVERAGE MAKERS 93 71 BICYCLES AND BICYCLE ACCESSORIES 94 72 BIOTECHNOLOGY 94 73 BITUMINOUS COAL 95 74 BLACK TEA IN BAGS 95 75 BLANCMANGE AND PUDDING MIX 96 76 BLANK AUDIO CASSETTES 96 77 BLENDED WHISKEY 97 78 BOARD GAMES AND PUZZLES 97 79 BOAT BUILDING 98 80 BODY CARE PRODUCTS 98 81 BOILERS 99 82 BOOK PUBLISHING 99 83 BOTTLED WATER 100 84 BOTTLES OF LAGER BEER 100 85 BOUILLON CUBES 101 86 BOUTIQUE HOTELS 101 87 BOXED PEN AND PENCIL SETS 102 88 BOYS' SCHOOL UNIFORMS 102 89 BRAS AND ALLIED GARMENTS 103 90 BREAD 103 91 BREAKFAST CEREALS 104 92 BREATH FRESHENING SPRAYS 104 93 BREWERIES 105 94 BRIEFCASES 105 95 BROADBAND INTERNET ACCESS 106 96 BROADWOVEN FABRIC FINISHING MILLS 106 97 BROOM, BRUSH, AND MOP MANUFACTURING 107 98 BROWN AND WHOLEMEAL BREAD 107 99 BUBBLE GUM 108 100 BUDWEISER LAGER BEER 108 101 BUILDING INSPECTION SERVICES 109 102 BUILT-IN ELECTRIC OVENS 109 www.icongrouponline.com ©2011 ICON Group International, Inc. Contents viii 103 BULK DISPOSABLE DIAPERS 110 104 BUSES AND COACHES 110 105 BUSINESS SUPPORT SERVICES 111 106 BUTCHER SHOPS 111 107 BUTTER 112 108 CABLE AND DSL ROUTERS 112 109 CAD/CAM/CAE SOFTWARE 113 110 CAFES AND RESTAURANTS 113 111 CAJUN AND CARIBBEAN FOOD 114 112 CAKES AND PASTRIES 114 113 CALCIUM SUPPLEMENTS 115 114 CAMCORDERS 115 115 CAMERA AND PHOTOGRAPHIC SUPPLIES STORES 116 116 CAMPGROUNDS AND RECREATIONAL VEHICLE PARKS 116 117 CANAPÉ APPETIZERS 117 118 CANDLES 117 119 CANDY 118 120 CANNED BAKED BEANS 118 121 CANS OF LAGER BEER 119 122 CAR AUDIO SYSTEMS 119 123 CASHEWS 120 124 CASINOS AND GAMBLING 120 125 CAST IRON COOKWARE 121 126 CASUAL COMBINATION RESTAURANT/BARS 121 127 CAT FOOD 122 128 CD PLAYERS 122 129 CEILING LIGHT FIXTURES 123 130 CELLULAR TELEPHONES 123 131 CEMENT CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS 124 132 CEMETERIES AND CREMATORIES 124 133 CERAMIC HOUSEWARES 125 134 CHALKBOARDS 125 135 CHEESE MANUFACTURING 126 136 CHEMICALS 126 137 CHERRY-FLAVORED BOTTLED WATER 127 138 CHEWING GUM 127 139 CHICKEN PATTIES 128 www.icongrouponline.com ©2011 ICON Group International, Inc. Contents ix 140 CHILDREN'S AND INFANTS' CLOTHING STORES 128 141 CHILLED PASTA 129 142 CHINA AND PORCELAIN 129 143 CHINESE SIDE DISHES 130 144 CHIPS AND CRISPS 130 145 CHLORINE BLEACH CLEANING PRODUCTS 131 146 CHOCOLATE COOKIE CANDY BARS 131 147 CHUTNEY 132 148 CIGARETTE MANUFACTURING 132 149 CIGARS AND CIGARILLOS 133 150 CITRUS FRUIT 133 151 CIVIL AEROSPACE EQUIPMENT 134 152 CLASSIC HANDBAGS 134 153 CLAY BUILDING PRODUCTS 135 154 CLIMBING ROPES 135 155 CLOTHES DRYERS 136 156 CLOTHING ACCESSORIES 136 157 CMOS IMAGE SENSORS 137 158 COATED OR LAMINATED PAPER MANUFACTURING 137 159 COD LIVER OIL DIETARY SUPPLEMENTS 138 160 COFFEE AND TEA MANUFACTURING 138 161 COIN-OPERATED LAUNDRIES AND DRY CLEANERS 139 162 COLAS 139 163 COLLECTION AGENCIES 140 164 COLOR COSMETICS 140 165 COMBINATION VCR/DVD PLAYERS 141 166 COMMERCIAL BAKERIES 141 167 COMMUNICATIONS SERVICES 142 168 COMPACT FLUORESCENT LIGHT BULBS 142 169 COMPLETE DRY DOG FOOD 143 170 COMPOUND COOKING OILS AND FATS 143 171 COMPUTER STORAGE DEVICE MANUFACTURING 144 172 CONCENTRATED LIQUID FABRIC SOFTENERS 144 173 CONCRETE PIPE MANUFACTURING 145 174 CONSOLE VIDEO GAMES 145 175 CONSTRUCTION AND ENGINEERING SERVICES 146 176 CONSUMER BATTERIES 146 www.icongrouponline.com ©2011 ICON Group International, Inc. Contents x 177 CONTACT LENSES 147 178 CONTINENTAL AND SPECIALTY PLANT BREAD 147 179 CONTINUOUS AIR FRESHENERS 148 180 CONTROL AND SUPPORT HOSIERY 148 181 CONVENIENCE STORES
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