; The 2011-2016 Outlook for Wood Beds Excluding Bunk Beds, Cribs, Cradles, Headboards, Headboard Beds, Hollywood Beds, Water Beds, and Youth Beds and All Custom Furniture Sold at Retail Directly to the
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The 2011-2016 Outlook for Wood Beds Excluding Bunk Beds, Cribs, Cradles, Headboards, Headboard Beds, Hollywood Beds, Water Beds, and Youth Beds and All Custom Furniture Sold at Retail Directly to the


This econometric study covers the latent demand outlook for wood beds excluding bunk beds, cribs, cradles, headboards, headboard beds, Hollywood beds, water beds, and youth beds and all custom furniture sold at retail directly to the customer across the regions of Greater China, including provinces, autonomous regions (Guangxi, Nei Mongol, Ningxia, Xinjiang, Xizang - Tibet), municipalities (Beijing, Chongqing, Shanghai, and Tianjin), special administrative regions (Hong Kong and Macau), and Taiwan (all hereafter referred to as “regions”). Latent demand (in millions of U.S. dollars), or potential industry earnings (P.I.E.) estimates are given across some 1,100 cities in Greater China. For each major city in question, the percent share the city is of the region and of Greater China is reported. Each major city is defined as an area of “economic population”, as opposed to the demographic population within a legal geographic boundary. For many cities, the economic population is much larger that the population within the city limits; this is especially true for the cities of the Western regions. For the coastal regions, cities which are close to other major cities or which represent, by themselves, a high percent of the regional population, actual city-level population is closer to the economic population (e.g. in Beijing). Based on this “economic” definition of population, comparative benchmarks allow the reader to quickly gauge a city’s marketing and distribution value vis-à-vis others. This report does not discuss the specific players in the market serving the latent demand, nor specific details at the product level. The study also does not consider short-term cyclicalities that might affect realized sales. The study, therefore, is strategic in nature, taking an aggregate and long-run view, irrespective of the players or products involved.

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									 The 2011-2016 Outlook for Wood Beds
  Excluding Bunk Beds, Cribs, Cradles,
Headboards, Headboard Beds, Hollywood
Beds, Water Beds, and Youth Beds and All
Custom Furniture Sold at Retail Directly to
      the Customer in Greater China

                         Professor Philip M. Parker, Ph.D.
                       Chaired Professor of Management Science
                     INSEAD (Singapore and Fontainebleau, France)

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                                          About the Author
Dr. Philip M. Parker is the Chaired Professor of Management Science at INSEAD where he has taught courses on
global competitive strategy since 1988. He has also taught courses at MIT, Stanford University, Harvard University,
UCLA, UCSD, and the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. Professor Parker is the author of six
books on the economic convergence of nations. These books introduce the notion of “physioeconomics” which
foresees a lack of global convergence in economic behaviors due to physiological and physiographic forces. His
latest book is "Physioeconomics: The Basis for Long-Run Economic Growth" (MIT Press 2000). He has also
published numerous articles in academic journals, including, the Rand Journal of Economics, Marketing Science, the
Journal of International Business Studies, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, the International Journal
of Forecasting, the European Management Journal, the European Journal of Operational Research, the Journal of
Marketing, the International Journal of Research in Marketing, and the Journal of Marketing Research. He is also
on the editorial boards of several academic journals.

Dr. Parker received his Ph.D. in Business Economics from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania
and has Masters degrees in Finance and Banking (University of Aix-Marseille) and Managerial Economics
(Wharton). His undergraduate degrees are in mathematics, biology and economics (minor in aeronautical
engineering). He has consulted and/or taught courses in Africa, the Middle East, Asia, Latin America, North America
and Europe.

                                          About this Series
The estimates given in this report were created using a methodology developed by and implemented under the direct
supervision of Professor Philip M. Parker, the Chaired Professor of Management Science, at INSEAD. The
methodology relies on historical figures across states. Reported figures should be seen as estimates of past and future
levels of latent demand.

Some of the methodologies and research approaches used in this report have benefited from the R&D Committee at
INSEAD, whose research support is gratefully acknowledged.

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    Contents                                                                                         v

Table of Contents
1       INTRODUCTION                                                                             9
     1.1      Overview                                                                           9
     1.2      What is Latent Demand and the P.I.E.?                                              9
     1.3      The Methodology                                                                   10
        1.3.1   Step 1. Product Definition and Data Collection                                  12
        1.3.2   Step 2. Filtering and Smoothing                                                 12
        1.3.3   Step 3. Filling in Missing Values                                               13
        1.3.4   Step 4. Varying Parameter, Non-linear Estimation                                13
        1.3.5   Step 5. Fixed-Parameter Linear Estimation                                       13
        1.3.6   Step 6. Aggregation and Benchmarking                                            14
2       SUMMARY OF FINDINGS                                                                     15
     2.1   The Latent Demand in Greater China                                                   15
     2.2   Top 100 Cities Sorted By Rank                                                        17
3       ANHUI                                                                                   20
     3.1   Latent Demand by Year - Anhui                                                        20
     3.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Anhui                                                        21
     3.3   Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Anhui                                                 23
4       BEIJING                                                                                 25
     4.1     Latent Demand by Year - Beijing                                                    25
     4.2     Cities Sorted by Rank - Beijing                                                    26
     4.3     Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Beijing                                             26
5       CHONGQING                                                                               27
     5.1   Latent Demand by Year - Chongqing                                                    27
     5.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Chongqing                                                    28
     5.3   Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Chongqing                                             29
6       FUJIAN                                                                                  30
     6.1    Latent Demand by Year - Fujian                                                      30
     6.2    Cities Sorted by Rank - Fujian                                                      31
     6.3    Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Fujian                                               32
7       GANSU                                                                                   34
     7.1   Latent Demand by Year - Gansu                                                        34
     7.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Gansu                                                        35
     7.3   Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Gansu                                                 36
8       GUANGDONG                                                                               37
     8.1   Latent Demand by Year - Guangdong                                                    37
     8.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Guangdong                                                    38
     8.3   Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Guangdong                                             40
9       GUANGXI                                                                                 43
     9.1   Latent Demand by Year - Guangxi                                                      43
     9.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Guangxi                                                      44
     9.3   Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Guangxi                                               45
10      GUIZHOU                                                                                 46
     10.1   Latent Demand by Year - Guizhou                                                     46
     10.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Guizhou                                                     47
     10.3   Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Guizhou                                              48

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 Contents                                                                                   vi

11      HAINAN                                                                         49
     11.1   Latent Demand by Year - Hainan                                             49
     11.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Hainan                                             50
     11.3   Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Hainan                                      51
12      HEBEI                                                                          52
     12.1  Latent Demand by Year - Hebei                                               52
     12.2  Cities Sorted by Rank - Hebei                                               53
     12.3  Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Hebei                                        54
13      HEILONGJIANG                                                                   56
     13.1   Latent Demand by Year - Heilongjiang                                       56
     13.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Heilongjiang                                       57
     13.3   Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Heilongjiang                                59
14      HENAN                                                                          61
     14.1  Latent Demand by Year - Henan                                               61
     14.2  Cities Sorted by Rank - Henan                                               62
     14.3  Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Henan                                        64
15      HONG KONG                                                                      66
     15.1  Latent Demand by Year - Hong Kong                                           66
     15.2  Cities Sorted by Rank - Hong Kong                                           67
     15.3  Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Hong Kong                                    68
16      HUBEI                                                                          69
     16.1  Latent Demand by Year - Hubei                                               69
     16.2  Cities Sorted by Rank - Hubei                                               70
     16.3  Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Hubei                                        72
17      HUNAN                                                                          74
     17.1  Latent Demand by Year - Hunan                                               74
     17.2  Cities Sorted by Rank - Hunan                                               75
     17.3  Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Hunan                                        77
18      JIANGSU                                                                        79
     18.1   Latent Demand by Year - Jiangsu                                            79
     18.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Jiangsu                                            80
     18.3   Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Jiangsu                                     82
19      JIANGXI                                                                        84
     19.1   Latent Demand by Year - Jiangxi                                            84
     19.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Jiangxi                                            85
     19.3   Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Jiangxi                                     86
20      JILIN                                                                          88
     20.1    Latent Demand by Year - Jilin                                             88
     20.2    Cities Sorted by Rank - Jilin                                             89
     20.3    Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Jilin                                      91
21      LIAONING                                                                       93
     21.1   Latent Demand by Year - Liaoning                                           93
     21.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Liaoning                                           94
     21.3   Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Liaoning                                    96
22      MACAU                                                                          98
     22.1  Latent Demand by Year - Macau                                               98
     22.2  Cities Sorted by Rank - Macau                                               99

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 Contents                                                                                     vii

     22.3    Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Macau                                        99
23      NEI MONGGOL                                                                     100
     23.1   Latent Demand by Year - Nei Monggol                                         100
     23.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Nei Monggol                                         101
     23.3   Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Nei Monggol                                  102
24      NINGXIA                                                                         103
     24.1   Latent Demand by Year - Ningxia                                             103
     24.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Ningxia                                             104
     24.3   Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Ningxia                                      104
25      QINGHAI                                                                         105
     25.1   Latent Demand by Year - Qinghai                                             105
     25.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Qinghai                                             106
     25.3   Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Qinghai                                      106
26      SHAANXI                                                                         107
     26.1   Latent Demand by Year - Shaanxi                                             107
     26.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Shaanxi                                             108
     26.3   Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Shaanxi                                      109
27      SHANDONG                                                                        110
     27.1   Latent Demand by Year - Shandong                                            110
     27.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Shandong                                            111
     27.3   Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Shandong                                     113
28      SHANGHAI                                                                        115
     28.1   Latent Demand by Year - Shanghai                                            115
     28.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Shanghai                                            116
     28.3   Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Shanghai                                     117
29      SHANXI                                                                          118
     29.1   Latent Demand by Year - Shanxi                                              118
     29.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Shanxi                                              119
     29.3   Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Shanxi                                       120
30      SICHUAN                                                                         121
     30.1   Latent Demand by Year - Sichuan                                             121
     30.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Sichuan                                             122
     30.3   Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Sichuan                                      124
31      TAIWAN                                                                          126
     31.1   Latent Demand by Year - Taiwan                                              126
     31.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Taiwan                                              127
     31.3   Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Taiwan                                       129
32      TIANJIN                                                                         132
     32.1   Latent Demand by Year - Tianjin                                             132
     32.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Tianjin                                             133
     32.3   Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Tianjin                                      133
33      XINJIANG UYGUR                                                                  134
     33.1   Latent Demand by Year - Xinjiang Uygur                                      134
     33.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Xinjiang Uygur                                      135
     33.3   Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Xinjiang Uygur                               136
34      XIZANG [THIBET]                                                                 137
     34.1   Latent Demand by Year - Xizang [Thibet]                                     137

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 Contents                                                                                       viii

     34.2    Cities Sorted by Rank - Xizang [Thibet]                                      138
     34.3    Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Xizang [Thibet]                               138
35      YUNNAN                                                                            139
     35.1  Latent Demand by Year - Yunnan                                                 139
     35.2  Cities Sorted by Rank - Yunnan                                                 140
     35.3  Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Yunnan                                          141
36      ZHEJIANG                                                                          142
     36.1   Latent Demand by Year - Zhejiang                                              142
     36.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Zhejiang                                              143
     36.3   Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Zhejiang                                       144
     37.1   Disclaimers & Safe Harbor                                                     146
     37.2   ICON Group International, Inc. User Agreement Provisions                      147

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 Introduction                                                                                                            9


This study covers the latent demand outlook for wood beds excluding bunk beds, cribs, cradles, headboards,
headboard beds, Hollywood beds, water beds, and youth beds and all custom furniture sold at retail directly to the
customer across the regions of Greater China, in
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