VIEWS: 11 PAGES: 142 CATEGORY: Market and Industry Reports POSTED ON: 4/7/2011
This econometric study covers the latent demand outlook for toilet tissue across the regions of Greater China, including provinces, autonomous regions (Guangxi, Nei Mongol, Ningxia, Xinjiang, Xizang - Tibet), municipalities (Beijing, Chongqing, Shanghai, and Tianjin), special administrative regions (Hong Kong and Macau), and Taiwan (all hereafter referred to as “regions”). Latent demand (in millions of U.S. dollars), or potential industry earnings (P.I.E.) estimates are given across some 1,100 cities in Greater China. For each major city in question, the percent share the city is of the region and of Greater China is reported. Each major city is defined as an area of “economic population”, as opposed to the demographic population within a legal geographic boundary. For many cities, the economic population is much larger that the population within the city limits; this is especially true for the cities of the Western regions. For the coastal regions, cities which are close to other major cities or which represent, by themselves, a high percent of the regional population, actual city-level population is closer to the economic population (e.g. in Beijing). Based on this “economic” definition of population, comparative benchmarks allow the reader to quickly gauge a city’s marketing and distribution value vis-à-vis others. This exercise is quite useful for persons setting up distribution centers or sales force strategies. Using econometric models which project fundamental economic dynamics within each region and city of influence, latent demand estimates are created for toilet tissue. This report does not discuss the specific players in the market serving the latent demand, nor specific details at the product level. The study also does not consider short-term cyclicalities that might affect realized sales. The study, therefore, is strategic in nature, taking an aggregate and long-run view, irrespective of the players or products involved.
The 2011-2016 Outlook for Toilet Tissue in Greater China by Professor Philip M. Parker, Ph.D. Chaired Professor of Management Science INSEAD (Singapore and Fontainebleau, France) www.icongrouponline.com ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc. ii COPYRIGHT NOTICE 00049995-9G All of ICON Group International, Inc. publications are copyrighted. Copying our publications in whole or in part, for whatever reason, is a violation of copyright laws and can lead to penalties and fines. Should you want to copy tables, graphs or other materials from our publications, please contact us to request permission. ICON Group International, Inc. often grants permission for very limited reproduction of our publications for internal use, press releases, and academic research. Such reproduction requires, however, confirmed permission from ICON Group International, Inc. Please read the full copyright notice, disclaimer, and user agreement provisions at the end of this report. IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER Neither ICON Group International, Inc. nor its employees or the author of this report can be held accountable for the use and subsequent actions of the user of the information provided in this publication. Great efforts have been made to ensure the accuracy of the data, but we can not guarantee, given the volume of information, accuracy. Since the information given in this report is forward-looking, the reader should read the disclaimer statement and user agreement provisions at the end of this report. www.icongrouponline.com ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc. iii About the Author Dr. Philip M. Parker is the Chaired Professor of Management Science at INSEAD where he has taught courses on global competitive strategy since 1988. He has also taught courses at MIT, Stanford University, Harvard University, UCLA, UCSD, and the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. Professor Parker is the author of six books on the economic convergence of nations. These books introduce the notion of “physioeconomics” which foresees a lack of global convergence in economic behaviors due to physiological and physiographic forces. His latest book is "Physioeconomics: The Basis for Long-Run Economic Growth" (MIT Press 2000). He has also published numerous articles in academic journals, including, the Rand Journal of Economics, Marketing Science, the Journal of International Business Studies, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, the International Journal of Forecasting, the European Management Journal, the European Journal of Operational Research, the Journal of Marketing, the International Journal of Research in Marketing, and the Journal of Marketing Research. He is also on the editorial boards of several academic journals. Dr. Parker received his Ph.D. in Business Economics from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania and has Masters degrees in Finance and Banking (University of Aix-Marseille) and Managerial Economics (Wharton). His undergraduate degrees are in mathematics, biology and economics (minor in aeronautical engineering). He has consulted and/or taught courses in Africa, the Middle East, Asia, Latin America, North America and Europe. About this Series The estimates given in this report were created using a methodology developed by and implemented under the direct supervision of Professor Philip M. Parker, the Chaired Professor of Management Science, at INSEAD. The methodology relies on historical figures across states. Reported figures should be seen as estimates of past and future levels of latent demand. Acknowledgements Some of the methodologies and research approaches used in this report have benefited from the R&D Committee at INSEAD, whose research support is gratefully acknowledged. www.icongrouponline.com ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc. iv About ICON Group International, Inc. ICON Group International, Inc.’s primary mission is to assist managers with their international information needs. U.S.-owned and operated, ICON Group has published hundreds of multi-client databases and global/regional market data, industry, and country publications. Global/Regional Management Studies: Summarizing over 190 countries, management studies are generally organized into regional volumes and cover key management functions. The human resource series covers minimum wages, child labor, unionization, and collective bargaining. The international law series covers media control and censorship, search and seizure, and trial justice and punishment. 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The studies are continually updated to insure that the reports have the most relevant information available. In addition to raw information, the reports provide relevant analyses which put a more general perspective on a country (seen in the context of relative performance vis-à-vis benchmarks). Industry Studies: Companies are racing to become more international, if not global in their strategies. For over 2000 product/industry categories, these reports give the reader a concise summary of latent market forecasts, pro-forma financials, import competition profiles, contacts, key references, and trends across 200 countries of the world. Some reports focus on a particular product and region (up to four regions per product), while others focus on a product within a particular country. ICON Group Customer Service 9606 Tierra Grande St., Suite 205 San Diego, CA 92126 USA Fax: 1-858-635-9414 E-mail: firstname.lastname@example.org www.icongrouponline.com www.icongrouponline.com ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc. Contents v Table of Contents 1 INTRODUCTION 9 1.1 Overview 9 1.2 What is Latent Demand and the P.I.E.? 9 1.3 The Methodology 10 1.3.1 Step 1. Product Definition and Data Collection 11 1.3.2 Step 2. Filtering and Smoothing 12 1.3.3 Step 3. Filling in Missing Values 12 1.3.4 Step 4. Varying Parameter, Non-linear Estimation 13 1.3.5 Step 5. Fixed-Parameter Linear Estimation 13 1.3.6 Step 6. Aggregation and Benchmarking 13 2 SUMMARY OF FINDINGS 15 2.1 The Latent Demand in Greater China 15 2.2 Top 100 Cities Sorted By Rank 16 3 ANHUI 20 3.1 Latent Demand by Year - Anhui 20 3.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Anhui 21 3.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Anhui 22 4 BEIJING 24 4.1 Latent Demand by Year - Beijing 24 4.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Beijing 25 4.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Beijing 25 5 CHONGQING 26 5.1 Latent Demand by Year - Chongqing 26 5.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Chongqing 27 5.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Chongqing 28 6 FUJIAN 29 6.1 Latent Demand by Year - Fujian 29 6.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Fujian 30 6.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Fujian 31 7 GANSU 33 7.1 Latent Demand by Year - Gansu 33 7.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Gansu 34 7.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Gansu 35 8 GUANGDONG 36 8.1 Latent Demand by Year - Guangdong 36 8.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Guangdong 37 8.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Guangdong 39 9 GUANGXI 42 9.1 Latent Demand by Year - Guangxi 42 9.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Guangxi 43 9.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Guangxi 44 10 GUIZHOU 45 10.1 Latent Demand by Year - Guizhou 45 10.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Guizhou 46 10.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Guizhou 47 www.icongrouponline.com ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc. Contents vi 11 HAINAN 48 11.1 Latent Demand by Year - Hainan 48 11.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Hainan 49 11.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Hainan 50 12 HEBEI 51 12.1 Latent Demand by Year - Hebei 51 12.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Hebei 52 12.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Hebei 53 13 HEILONGJIANG 54 13.1 Latent Demand by Year - Heilongjiang 54 13.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Heilongjiang 55 13.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Heilongjiang 57 14 HENAN 59 14.1 Latent Demand by Year - Henan 59 14.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Henan 60 14.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Henan 62 15 HONG KONG 64 15.1 Latent Demand by Year - Hong Kong 64 15.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Hong Kong 65 15.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Hong Kong 66 16 HUBEI 67 16.1 Latent Demand by Year - Hubei 67 16.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Hubei 68 16.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Hubei 70 17 HUNAN 72 17.1 Latent Demand by Year - Hunan 72 17.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Hunan 73 17.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Hunan 75 18 JIANGSU 77 18.1 Latent Demand by Year - Jiangsu 77 18.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Jiangsu 78 18.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Jiangsu 80 19 JIANGXI 82 19.1 Latent Demand by Year - Jiangxi 82 19.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Jiangxi 83 19.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Jiangxi 84 20 JILIN 86 20.1 Latent Demand by Year - Jilin 86 20.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Jilin 87 20.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Jilin 88 21 LIAONING 90 21.1 Latent Demand by Year - Liaoning 90 21.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Liaoning 91 21.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Liaoning 92 22 MACAU 94 22.1 Latent Demand by Year - Macau 94 22.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Macau 95 www.icongrouponline.com ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc. Contents vii 22.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Macau 95 23 NEI MONGGOL 96 23.1 Latent Demand by Year - Nei Monggol 96 23.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Nei Monggol 97 23.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Nei Monggol 98 24 NINGXIA 99 24.1 Latent Demand by Year - Ningxia 99 24.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Ningxia 100 24.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Ningxia 100 25 QINGHAI 101 25.1 Latent Demand by Year - Qinghai 101 25.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Qinghai 102 25.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Qinghai 102 26 SHAANXI 103 26.1 Latent Demand by Year - Shaanxi 103 26.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Shaanxi 104 26.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Shaanxi 105 27 SHANDONG 106 27.1 Latent Demand by Year - Shandong 106 27.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Shandong 107 27.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Shandong 109 28 SHANGHAI 111 28.1 Latent Demand by Year - Shanghai 111 28.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Shanghai 112 28.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Shanghai 112 29 SHANXI 113 29.1 Latent Demand by Year - Shanxi 113 29.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Shanxi 114 29.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Shanxi 115 30 SICHUAN 116 30.1 Latent Demand by Year - Sichuan 116 30.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Sichuan 117 30.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Sichuan 119 31 TAIWAN 121 31.1 Latent Demand by Year - Taiwan 121 31.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Taiwan 122 31.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Taiwan 124 32 TIANJIN 127 32.1 Latent Demand by Year - Tianjin 127 32.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Tianjin 128 32.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Tianjin 128 33 XINJIANG UYGUR 129 33.1 Latent Demand by Year - Xinjiang Uygur 129 33.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Xinjiang Uygur 130 33.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Xinjiang Uygur 131 34 XIZANG [THIBET] 132 34.1 Latent Demand by Year - Xizang [Thibet] 132 www.icongrouponline.com ©2010 ICON Group International, Inc. Contents viii 34.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Xizang [Thibet] 133 34.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Xizang [Thibet] 133 35 YUNNAN 134 35.1 Latent Demand by Year - Yunnan 134 35.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Yunnan 135 35.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Yunnan 136 36 ZHEJIANG 137 36.1 Latent Demand by Year - Zhejiang 137 36.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Zhejiang 138 36.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Zhejiang 139 37 DISCLAIMERS, WARRANTEES, AND USER AGREEMENT PROVISIONS 141 37.1
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