The 2011-2016 Outlook for Tampons
without Applicator in Greater China
by
Professor Philip M. Parker, Ph.D.
Chaired Professor of Management Science
INSEAD (Singapore and Fontainebleau, France)
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About the Author
Dr. Philip M. Parker is the Chaired Professor of Management Science at INSEAD where he has taught courses on
global competitive strategy since 1988. He has also taught courses at MIT, Stanford University, Harvard University,
UCLA, UCSD, and the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. Professor Parker is the author of six
books on the economic convergence of nations. These books introduce the notion of “physioeconomics” which
foresees a lack of global convergence in economic behaviors due to physiological and physiographic forces. His
latest book is "Physioeconomics: The Basis for Long-Run Economic Growth" (MIT Press 2000). He has also
published numerous articles in academic journals, including, the Rand Journal of Economics, Marketing Science, the
Journal of International Business Studies, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, the International Journal
of Forecasting, the European Management Journal, the European Journal of Operational Research, the Journal of
Marketing, the International Journal of Research in Marketing, and the Journal of Marketing Research. He is also
on the editorial boards of several academic journals.
Dr. Parker received his Ph.D. in Business Economics from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania
and has Masters degrees in Finance and Banking (University of Aix-Marseille) and Managerial Economics
(Wharton). His undergraduate degrees are in mathematics, biology and economics (minor in aeronautical
engineering). He has consulted and/or taught courses in Africa, the Middle East, Asia, Latin America, North America
and Europe.
About this Series
The estimates given in this report were created using a methodology developed by and implemented under the direct
supervision of Professor Philip M. Parker, the Chaired Professor of Management Science, at INSEAD. The
methodology relies on historical figures across states. Reported figures should be seen as estimates of past and future
levels of latent demand.
Acknowledgements
Some of the methodologies and research approaches used in this report have benefited from the R&D Committee at
INSEAD, whose research support is gratefully acknowledged.
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Contents v
Table of Contents
1 INTRODUCTION 9
1.1 Overview 9
1.2 What is Latent Demand and the P.I.E.? 9
1.3 The Methodology 10
1.3.1 Step 1. Product Definition and Data Collection 11
1.3.2 Step 2. Filtering and Smoothing 12
1.3.3 Step 3. Filling in Missing Values 12
1.3.4 Step 4. Varying Parameter, Non-linear Estimation 13
1.3.5 Step 5. Fixed-Parameter Linear Estimation 13
1.3.6 Step 6. Aggregation and Benchmarking 13
2 SUMMARY OF FINDINGS 15
2.1 The Latent Demand in Greater China 15
2.2 Top 100 Cities Sorted By Rank 16
3 ANHUI 20
3.1 Latent Demand by Year - Anhui 20
3.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Anhui 21
3.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Anhui 22
4 BEIJING 24
4.1 Latent Demand by Year - Beijing 24
4.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Beijing 25
4.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Beijing 25
5 CHONGQING 26
5.1 Latent Demand by Year - Chongqing 26
5.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Chongqing 27
5.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Chongqing 28
6 FUJIAN 29
6.1 Latent Demand by Year - Fujian 29
6.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Fujian 30
6.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Fujian 31
7 GANSU 33
7.1 Latent Demand by Year - Gansu 33
7.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Gansu 34
7.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Gansu 35
8 GUANGDONG 36
8.1 Latent Demand by Year - Guangdong 36
8.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Guangdong 37
8.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Guangdong 39
9 GUANGXI 42
9.1 Latent Demand by Year - Guangxi 42
9.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Guangxi 43
9.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Guangxi 44
10 GUIZHOU 45
10.1 Latent Demand by Year - Guizhou 45
10.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Guizhou 46
10.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Guizhou 47
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11 HAINAN 48
11.1 Latent Demand by Year - Hainan 48
11.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Hainan 49
11.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Hainan 50
12 HEBEI 51
12.1 Latent Demand by Year - Hebei 51
12.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Hebei 52
12.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Hebei 53
13 HEILONGJIANG 54
13.1 Latent Demand by Year - Heilongjiang 54
13.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Heilongjiang 55
13.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Heilongjiang 57
14 HENAN 59
14.1 Latent Demand by Year - Henan 59
14.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Henan 60
14.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Henan 62
15 HONG KONG 64
15.1 Latent Demand by Year - Hong Kong 64
15.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Hong Kong 65
15.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Hong Kong 66
16 HUBEI 67
16.1 Latent Demand by Year - Hubei 67
16.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Hubei 68
16.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Hubei 70
17 HUNAN 72
17.1 Latent Demand by Year - Hunan 72
17.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Hunan 73
17.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Hunan 75
18 JIANGSU 77
18.1 Latent Demand by Year - Jiangsu 77
18.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Jiangsu 78
18.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Jiangsu 80
19 JIANGXI 82
19.1 Latent Demand by Year - Jiangxi 82
19.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Jiangxi 83
19.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Jiangxi 84
20 JILIN 86
20.1 Latent Demand by Year - Jilin 86
20.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Jilin 87
20.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Jilin 88
21 LIAONING 90
21.1 Latent Demand by Year - Liaoning 90
21.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Liaoning 91
21.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Liaoning 92
22 MACAU 94
22.1 Latent Demand by Year - Macau 94
22.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Macau 95
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22.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Macau 95
23 NEI MONGGOL 96
23.1 Latent Demand by Year - Nei Monggol 96
23.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Nei Monggol 97
23.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Nei Monggol 98
24 NINGXIA 99
24.1 Latent Demand by Year - Ningxia 99
24.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Ningxia 100
24.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Ningxia 100
25 QINGHAI 101
25.1 Latent Demand by Year - Qinghai 101
25.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Qinghai 102
25.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Qinghai 102
26 SHAANXI 103
26.1 Latent Demand by Year - Shaanxi 103
26.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Shaanxi 104
26.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Shaanxi 105
27 SHANDONG 106
27.1 Latent Demand by Year - Shandong 106
27.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Shandong 107
27.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Shandong 109
28 SHANGHAI 111
28.1 Latent Demand by Year - Shanghai 111
28.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Shanghai 112
28.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Shanghai 112
29 SHANXI 113
29.1 Latent Demand by Year - Shanxi 113
29.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Shanxi 114
29.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Shanxi 115
30 SICHUAN 116
30.1 Latent Demand by Year - Sichuan 116
30.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Sichuan 117
30.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Sichuan 119
31 TAIWAN 121
31.1 Latent Demand by Year - Taiwan 121
31.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Taiwan 122
31.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Taiwan 124
32 TIANJIN 127
32.1 Latent Demand by Year - Tianjin 127
32.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Tianjin 128
32.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Tianjin 128
33 XINJIANG UYGUR 129
33.1 Latent Demand by Year - Xinjiang Uygur 129
33.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Xinjiang Uygur 130
33.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Xinjiang Uygur 131
34 XIZANG [THIBET] 132
34.1 Latent Demand by Year - Xizang [Thibet] 132
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34.2 Cities Sorted by Rank - Xizang [Thibet] 133
34.3 Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Xizang [