The 2011-2016 Outlook for Automotive Rental and Leasing without Drivers in Greater China

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					     The 2011-2016 Outlook for Automotive
     Rental and Leasing without Drivers in
                Greater China




                                          by
                         Professor Philip M. Parker, Ph.D.
                       Chaired Professor of Management Science
                     INSEAD (Singapore and Fontainebleau, France)




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                                          About the Author
Dr. Philip M. Parker is the Chaired Professor of Management Science at INSEAD where he has taught courses on
global competitive strategy since 1988. He has also taught courses at MIT, Stanford University, Harvard University,
UCLA, UCSD, and the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. Professor Parker is the author of six
books on the economic convergence of nations. These books introduce the notion of “physioeconomics” which
foresees a lack of global convergence in economic behaviors due to physiological and physiographic forces. His
latest book is "Physioeconomics: The Basis for Long-Run Economic Growth" (MIT Press 2000). He has also
published numerous articles in academic journals, including, the Rand Journal of Economics, Marketing Science, the
Journal of International Business Studies, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, the International Journal
of Forecasting, the European Management Journal, the European Journal of Operational Research, the Journal of
Marketing, the International Journal of Research in Marketing, and the Journal of Marketing Research. He is also
on the editorial boards of several academic journals.

Dr. Parker received his Ph.D. in Business Economics from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania
and has Masters degrees in Finance and Banking (University of Aix-Marseille) and Managerial Economics
(Wharton). His undergraduate degrees are in mathematics, biology and economics (minor in aeronautical
engineering). He has consulted and/or taught courses in Africa, the Middle East, Asia, Latin America, North America
and Europe.


                                          About this Series
The estimates given in this report were created using a methodology developed by and implemented under the direct
supervision of Professor Philip M. Parker, the Chaired Professor of Management Science, at INSEAD. The
methodology relies on historical figures across states. Reported figures should be seen as estimates of past and future
levels of latent demand.


                                        Acknowledgements
Some of the methodologies and research approaches used in this report have benefited from the R&D Committee at
INSEAD, whose research support is gratefully acknowledged.




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Table of Contents
1       INTRODUCTION                                                                             9
     1.1      Overview                                                                           9
     1.2      What is Latent Demand and the P.I.E.?                                              9
     1.3      The Methodology                                                                   10
        1.3.1   Step 1. Product Definition and Data Collection                                  11
        1.3.2   Step 2. Filtering and Smoothing                                                 12
        1.3.3   Step 3. Filling in Missing Values                                               12
        1.3.4   Step 4. Varying Parameter, Non-linear Estimation                                13
        1.3.5   Step 5. Fixed-Parameter Linear Estimation                                       13
        1.3.6   Step 6. Aggregation and Benchmarking                                            13
2       SUMMARY OF FINDINGS                                                                     15
     2.1   The Latent Demand in Greater China                                                   15
     2.2   Top 100 Cities Sorted By Rank                                                        16
3       ANHUI                                                                                   20
     3.1   Latent Demand by Year - Anhui                                                        20
     3.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Anhui                                                        21
     3.3   Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Anhui                                                 22
4       BEIJING                                                                                 24
     4.1     Latent Demand by Year - Beijing                                                    24
     4.2     Cities Sorted by Rank - Beijing                                                    25
     4.3     Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Beijing                                             25
5       CHONGQING                                                                               26
     5.1   Latent Demand by Year - Chongqing                                                    26
     5.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Chongqing                                                    27
     5.3   Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Chongqing                                             28
6       FUJIAN                                                                                  29
     6.1    Latent Demand by Year - Fujian                                                      29
     6.2    Cities Sorted by Rank - Fujian                                                      30
     6.3    Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Fujian                                               31
7       GANSU                                                                                   33
     7.1   Latent Demand by Year - Gansu                                                        33
     7.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Gansu                                                        34
     7.3   Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Gansu                                                 35
8       GUANGDONG                                                                               36
     8.1   Latent Demand by Year - Guangdong                                                    36
     8.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Guangdong                                                    37
     8.3   Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Guangdong                                             39
9       GUANGXI                                                                                 42
     9.1   Latent Demand by Year - Guangxi                                                      42
     9.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Guangxi                                                      43
     9.3   Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Guangxi                                               44
10      GUIZHOU                                                                                 45
     10.1   Latent Demand by Year - Guizhou                                                     45
     10.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Guizhou                                                     46
     10.3   Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Guizhou                                              47



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11      HAINAN                                                                         48
     11.1   Latent Demand by Year - Hainan                                             48
     11.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Hainan                                             49
     11.3   Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Hainan                                      50
12      HEBEI                                                                          51
     12.1  Latent Demand by Year - Hebei                                               51
     12.2  Cities Sorted by Rank - Hebei                                               52
     12.3  Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Hebei                                        53
13      HEILONGJIANG                                                                   54
     13.1   Latent Demand by Year - Heilongjiang                                       54
     13.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Heilongjiang                                       55
     13.3   Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Heilongjiang                                57
14      HENAN                                                                          59
     14.1  Latent Demand by Year - Henan                                               59
     14.2  Cities Sorted by Rank - Henan                                               60
     14.3  Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Henan                                        62
15      HONG KONG                                                                      64
     15.1  Latent Demand by Year - Hong Kong                                           64
     15.2  Cities Sorted by Rank - Hong Kong                                           65
     15.3  Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Hong Kong                                    66
16      HUBEI                                                                          67
     16.1  Latent Demand by Year - Hubei                                               67
     16.2  Cities Sorted by Rank - Hubei                                               68
     16.3  Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Hubei                                        70
17      HUNAN                                                                          72
     17.1  Latent Demand by Year - Hunan                                               72
     17.2  Cities Sorted by Rank - Hunan                                               73
     17.3  Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Hunan                                        75
18      JIANGSU                                                                        77
     18.1   Latent Demand by Year - Jiangsu                                            77
     18.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Jiangsu                                            78
     18.3   Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Jiangsu                                     80
19      JIANGXI                                                                        82
     19.1   Latent Demand by Year - Jiangxi                                            82
     19.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Jiangxi                                            83
     19.3   Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Jiangxi                                     84
20      JILIN                                                                          86
     20.1    Latent Demand by Year - Jilin                                             86
     20.2    Cities Sorted by Rank - Jilin                                             87
     20.3    Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Jilin                                      88
21      LIAONING                                                                       90
     21.1   Latent Demand by Year - Liaoning                                           90
     21.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Liaoning                                           91
     21.3   Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Liaoning                                    92
22      MACAU                                                                          94
     22.1  Latent Demand by Year - Macau                                               94
     22.2  Cities Sorted by Rank - Macau                                               95


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     22.3    Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Macau                                        95
23      NEI MONGGOL                                                                      96
     23.1   Latent Demand by Year - Nei Monggol                                          96
     23.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Nei Monggol                                          97
     23.3   Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Nei Monggol                                   98
24      NINGXIA                                                                          99
     24.1   Latent Demand by Year - Ningxia                                              99
     24.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Ningxia                                             100
     24.3   Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Ningxia                                      100
25      QINGHAI                                                                         101
     25.1   Latent Demand by Year - Qinghai                                             101
     25.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Qinghai                                             102
     25.3   Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Qinghai                                      102
26      SHAANXI                                                                         103
     26.1   Latent Demand by Year - Shaanxi                                             103
     26.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Shaanxi                                             104
     26.3   Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Shaanxi                                      105
27      SHANDONG                                                                        106
     27.1   Latent Demand by Year - Shandong                                            106
     27.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Shandong                                            107
     27.3   Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Shandong                                     109
28      SHANGHAI                                                                        111
     28.1   Latent Demand by Year - Shanghai                                            111
     28.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Shanghai                                            112
     28.3   Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Shanghai                                     112
29      SHANXI                                                                          113
     29.1   Latent Demand by Year - Shanxi                                              113
     29.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Shanxi                                              114
     29.3   Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Shanxi                                       115
30      SICHUAN                                                                         116
     30.1   Latent Demand by Year - Sichuan                                             116
     30.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Sichuan                                             117
     30.3   Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Sichuan                                      119
31      TAIWAN                                                                          121
     31.1   Latent Demand by Year - Taiwan                                              121
     31.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Taiwan                                              122
     31.3   Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Taiwan                                       124
32      TIANJIN                                                                         127
     32.1   Latent Demand by Year - Tianjin                                             127
     32.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Tianjin                                             128
     32.3   Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Tianjin                                      128
33      XINJIANG UYGUR                                                                  129
     33.1   Latent Demand by Year - Xinjiang Uygur                                      129
     33.2   Cities Sorted by Rank - Xinjiang Uygur                                      130
     33.3   Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Xinjiang Uygur                               131
34      XIZANG [THIBET]                                                                 132
     34.1   Latent Demand by Year - Xizang [Thibet]                                     132

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     34.2    Cities Sorted by Rank - Xizang [Thibet]                                      133
     34.3    Cities Sorted Alphabetically - Xizang [Thibet]                               133
35      YUNNAN                                                                            134
     35.1  Latent Demand by Year - Yunnan                                                 134
     35.2  Cities Sorted by Rank - Yunnan                                         
				
DOCUMENT INFO
Description: This econometric study covers the latent demand outlook for automotive rental and leasing without drivers across the regions of Greater China, including provinces, autonomous regions (Guangxi, Nei Mongol, Ningxia, Xinjiang, Xizang - Tibet), municipalities (Beijing, Chongqing, Shanghai, and Tianjin), special administrative regions (Hong Kong and Macau), and Taiwan (all hereafter referred to as “regions”). Latent demand (in millions of U.S. dollars), or potential industry earnings (P.I.E.) estimates are given across some 1,100 cities in Greater China. For each major city in question, the percent share the city is of the region and of Greater China is reported. Each major city is defined as an area of “economic population”, as opposed to the demographic population within a legal geographic boundary. For many cities, the economic population is much larger that the population within the city limits; this is especially true for the cities of the Western regions. For the coastal regions, cities which are close to other major cities or which represent, by themselves, a high percent of the regional population, actual city-level population is closer to the economic population (e.g. in Beijing). Based on this “economic” definition of population, comparative benchmarks allow the reader to quickly gauge a city’s marketing and distribution value vis-à-vis others. This report does not discuss the specific players in the market serving the latent demand, nor specific details at the product level. The study also does not consider short-term cyclicalities that might affect realized sales. The study, therefore, is strategic in nature, taking an aggregate and long-run view, irrespective of the players or products involved.
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