VIEWS: 3 PAGES: 26 POSTED ON: 4/4/2011
KELLSTEDT ONLINE ABSTRACTS LECTURES WILD CARD & WHITTEN READINGS $100 $100 $100 $100 $100 $200 $200 $200 $200 $200 $300 $300 $300 $300 $300 $400 $400 $400 $400 $400 $500 $500 $500 $500 $500 WHAT IS AN INDEPENDENT AND WHAT IS A DEPENDENT VARIABLE? INDEPENDENT: VARIABLE AFFECTING THE OUTCOME; CAUSE DEPENDENT: OUTCOME VARIABLE; EFFECT KELLSTADT & WHITTEN $100 NAME AT LEAST THREE OF THE FOUR TESTS OF CAUSALITY. 1. A CAUSAL MECHANISM NEEDS TO CONNECT X AND Y. 2. Y SHOULD NOT CAUSE X. 3. THERE SHOULD BE COVARIATION BETWEEN X AND Y. 4. THERE IS NO CONFOUNDING VARIABLE THAT MAKES THE RELATIONSHIP SPURIOUS. KELLSTADT & WHITTEN $200 THE DEGREE IN WHICH WE CAN BE CONFIDENT THAT THE RESULTS OF OUR ANALYSIS APPLY NOT ONLY TO THE POPULATION UNDER STUDY, BUT ALSO THE BROADER POPULATION IS KNOWN AS… EXTERNAL VALIDITY KELLSTADT & WHITTEN $300 WHAT IS A CROSS-SECTIONAL STUDY? WHAT IS A TIME-SERIES STUDY? CROSS-SECTIONAL STUDIES FOLLOW SEVERAL UNITS AT ONE POINT IN TIME; TIME-SERIES STUDIES FOLLOW ONE UNIT OVER TIME KELLSTADT & WHITTEN $400 WHAT IS CONTENT VALIDITY? CONTENT VALIDITY DEFINES ALL THE ESSENTIAL ELEMENTS OF A CONCEPT. IT IS A PROCESS THAT FORCES THE RESEARCHER TO COME UP WITH A LIST OF ALL THE ELEMTNS THAT DEFINE TO CONCEPT WE WISH TO MEASURE> KELLSTADT & WHITTEN $500 READ THIS ABSTRACT. WHAT IS THE INDEPENDENT VARIABLE? Drawing on research in public opinion and political communication, this research examines a highly pervasive form of communication that has often overt political content, yet one that has been largely overlooked by scholars: music. While the macro-level relationship has been broadly discussed and supported, the micro-level relationship remains relatively unexplored. This project helps to identify where it is possible to predict political attitudes based on musical preferences. I explore and advance a theory which links music preferences and political attitudes through a model I term selective group feedback. My findings show associations between key political attitudes and certain music preferences, namely Country, R&B, Rap, and Hip-Hop. These findings suggest that not only is music an effective and influential form of political communication, but also that particular political norms are constructed and encouraged among particular political genres of music. “MUSICAL PREFERENCES” ABSTRACTS $100 READ THIS ABSTRACT. WHAT IS THE DEPENDENT VARIABLE? Every dictator dislikes free media. Yet, many nondemocratic countries have partially free or almost free media. In this article, we develop a theory of media freedom in dictatorships and provide systematic statistical evidence in support of this theory. In our model, free media allow a dictator to provide incentives to bureaucrats and therefore to improve the quality of government. The importance of this benefit varies with the natural resource endowment. In resource- rich countries, bureaucratic incentives are less important for the dictator; hence, media freedom is less likely to emerge. Using panel data, we show that controlling for country fixed effects, media are less free in oil-rich economies, with the effect especially pronounced in nondemocratic regimes. These results are robust to model specification and the inclusion of various controls, including the level of economic development, democracy, country size, size of government, and others. “MEDIA FREEDOM” ABSTRACTS $200 READ THIS ABSTRACT. WHAT ARE THREE WAYS TO OPERATIONALIZE ATTITUDE STRENGTH? Attitude strength is defined as the extent to which an attitude is stable, resistant to change, impacts information processing, and guides behavior. Accessibility, ambivalence and importance relate to the broader concept of strength. For many years, both social psychology and political science ignored the differences across these various concepts, though in different ways. Social psychologists treated them as interchangeable as indicators of the same latent concept. Political scientists treated them in isolation focusing on one type of strength and ignoring the other possibly relevant types. Recent research in both fields, however challenges these approaches. Indicators of attitude strength are distinct concepts and these differences are important empirically and theoretically. In this essay, we review the developments in both disciplines and make suggestions for how scholars should use and operationalize these concepts. ACCESSIBILITY, AMBIVALENCE, IMPORTANCE ABSTRACTS $300 READ THIS ABSTRACT. WHAT ARE THE INDEPENDENT, DEPENDENT, AND CONFOUNDING VARIABLES? This article argues that the link between income inequality and violent property crime might be spurious, complementing a similar argument in prior analysis by the author on the determinants of homicide. In contrast, Fajnzylber, Lederman & Loayza (1998; 2002a, b) provide seemingly strong and robust evidence that inequality causes a higher rate of both homicide and robbery/violent theft even after controlling for country-specific fixed effects. Our results suggest that inequality is not a statistically significant determinant, unless either country- specific effects are not controlled for or the sample is artificially restricted to a small number of countries. The reason why the link between inequality and violent property crime might be spurious is that income inequality is likely to be strongly correlated with country- specific fixed effects such as cultural differences. A high degree of inequality might be socially undesirable for any number of reasons, but that it causes violent crime is far from proven. INDEPENDENT: INCOME INEQUALITY DEPENDENT: VIOLENT PROPERTY CRIME CONFOUNDING: COUNTRY-SPECIFIC FIXED EFFECTS ABSTRACTS $400 (CULTURAL DIFFERENCES) READ THIS ABSTRACT. WHAT IS THE CONCEPT AND WHAT IS THE VARIABLE USED TO MEASURE THAT CONCEPT IN THIS STUDY? The "level of conceptualization" index, introduced by Campbell et al. (1960), is commonly used to measure ideological awareness and sophistication among the electorate. Unfortunately, the validity and reliability of the original measure were never sufficiently examined. This article examines the level of conceptualization measures of Field and Anderson (1969) and Nie, Verbaand Petrocik (1976). It reaches two major conclusions: (1) the measures under examination are neither reliable nor valid measures of the level of conceptualization construct; and (2) the measures reflect the rhetoric of contemporary political discourse rather than the actual process of political evaluation. These conclusions call into doubt the validity and reliability of the original measure of The American Voter. CONCEPT: IDEOLOGICAL AWARENESS & SOPHISTICATION MEASUREMENT: “LEVEL OF CONCEPTUALIZATION” INDEX ABSTRACTS $500 A SURVEY ASKS YOU TO REPORT YOUR INCOME, ROUNDED TO THE NEAREST THOUSAND DOLLARS. WHAT LEVEL OF MEASUREMENT IS THIS? INTERVAL/SCALE/CONTINUOUS: WE CAN MEASURE THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE CATEGORIES OF INCOME AND THOSE DIFFERENCES ARE MEASURABLE BY A THOUSAND DOLLARS. LECTURES $100 IF WE REJECT THE NULL HYPOTHESIS, WHAT DOES THIS MEAN? THE NULL HYPOTHESIS IS THE OPPOSITE OF THE RESEARCH HYPOTHESIS WE PROPOSE. IF WE REJECT THE NULL, THIS MEANS THAT OUR RESEARCH HYPOTHESIS IS TRUE AND THERE IS A RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE VARIABLES. IF WE ACCEPT THE NULL, THERE IS NO RELATIONSHIP. LECTURES $200 WHAT ARE THE TWO REQUIREMENTS FOR A SAMPLE TO BE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE NATIONAL POPULATION? IT HAS TO BE: 1) A RANDOMLY SELECTED SAMPLE 2) AT LEAST OR AROUND 1000 PEOPLE LECTURES $300 WHAT IS INTERNAL VALIDITY? WHAT IS EXTERNAL VALIDITY? INTERNAL VALIDITY: THE RESEARCH DESIGN PRESENTS HIGH LEVELS OF CONFIDENCE IN THE CONCLUSIONS ABOUT CAUSALITY EXTERNAL VALIDITY: DEGREE TO WHICH WE CAN BE CONFIDENT THAT THE RESULTS CAN BE GENERALIZED TO A BROADER STUDY LECTURES $400 WHAT ARE THREE OF THE FOUR THREATS TO INTERNAL VALIDITY IN AN EXPERIMENT? HISTORY: SOMETHING OCCURS BETWEEN TREATMENT THAT CHANGES THE RESULTS MATURATION: THE SUBJECTS CHANGE FROM T1 TO T2 TESTING: THE EXPERIMENT ITSELF MIGHT CHANGE BEHAVIOR DEMAND CHARACTERISTICS: THE SUBJECTS LEARN OR GUESS ABOUT THE NATURE OF THE EXPERIMENT LECTURES $500 WHAT IS THE PROBLEM WITH THE TERM “ACTIVIST JUDGES”? DAILY DOUBLE IT IS POORLY OPERATIONALIZED OR DEFINED. ONLINE READINGS $100 WHAT IS AND WHAT IS THE CONNECTION BETWEEN THEORY, CONCEPTS, AND VARIABLES BY GIVING AN EXAMPLE. A THEORY IS A TENTATIVE CONJECTURE ABOUT THE CAUSES OF SOME PHENOMENON OF INTEREST. A CONCEPT IS THE IDEA THAT WE ARE INTERESTED IN, WHETHER IT IS THE CAUSE OR EFFECT. A VARIABLE IS A MEASUREMENT OF THAT IDEA. EXAMPLE: I BELIEVE THAT WEALTH INCREASES LIKELIHOOD OF PARTICIPATION. “WEALTH” AND “PARTICIPATION” ARE MY CONCEPTS. “INCOME” AND “VOTED IN 2008” ARE MY ONLINE READINGS $200 VARIABLES. WHAT IS RELIABLITY? WHAT IS VALIDITY? RELIABILITY IS CONSISTENCY: YOUR MEASURE WILL GET THE RESULT WHEN IT’S TESTED OVER AND OVER AGAIN; YOU TEST THE RELIABILITY OF A SCALE WHEN YOU STEP OFF AND STEP ON AGAIN VALIDITY IS ACCURACY: YOU’RE PURPORTING YOUR MEASURE (YOUR VARIABLE) IS WHAT YOU WANT TO MEASURE (GIVEN YOUR CONCEPT). ONLINE READINGS $300 DESCRIBE NONRANDOM AND RANDOM ERROR AND HOW THEY RELATE TO RELIABLITY AND VALIDITY. NON RANDOM ERROR RELATES BACK TO VALIDITY (ACCURACY OF YOUR MEASURE). NON RANDOM ERROR IS A SYSTEMATIC ERROR USUALLY FROM USING COMING FROM THE INSTRUMENT ITSELF. RANDOM ERROR RELATES BACK TO RELIABLITY (CONSISTENCY OF YOUR MEASURE). RANDOM ERROR USUALLY PARALLELS THE TRUE RELATIONSHIP, BUT IS OFF DUE TO INCONSISTENCY IN THE MEASURE. ONLINE READINGS $400 WHAT ARE 2 OF THE 3 WAYS TO IMPROVE THE PROBLEM OF A SMALL-N IN COMPARATIVE RESEARCH? 1. INCREASE THE NUMBER OF CASES 2. CHOOSE THE MOST SIMILAR/COMPARABLE CASES 3. REDUCE THE NUMBER OF VARIABLES ONLINE READINGS $500 WHAT IS A GOOD DEFINITION OF A MISSING NUMBER? A MISSING NUMBER IS A STATISTIC THAT CONTAINS RELEVANT INFORMATION THAT IS OMITTED IN ORDER TO EXAGGERATE THAT STATISTIC IN SOME WAY. WILD CARD $100 WHY DOES THIS QUALIFY AS A MISSING NUMBER? “Suppose that in 1950 only one child in America was shot dead, then doubling this number 45 times, you would reach a number of 35 trillion children gunned down in 1995.” THE DIFFERENCES IN POPULATION FROM 1950 AND 1995 ARE MISSING THAT WOULD GIVE A GREATER SENSE OF PROPORTIONALITY BETWEEN THESE TWO FIGURES. WILD CARD $200 READ THIS ABSTRACT. WHAT LEVEL OF MEASUREMENT IS THE INCOME VARIABLE? The income of the median voter has been measured by median income. This measure fails to consider the income distribution of DAILY both voters and number of adults per family. Proper measures of the income of the median voter change standard results. This income is no longer less than mean income; its ratio to mean income is only slightly related to the ratio of median to mean income. We thus, measure income in intervals of $10,000 while standardizing the measurement given the number of adults in a family. This new DOUBLE measurement of income shows us a different perspective of the median voter. SCALE/CONTINUOUS/INTERVAL. WE CAN TELL THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN ORDERED CATEGORIES. WILD CARD $300 IF I AM DOING RECREATIONAL, NONEMPIRICAL RESEARCH… WHAT TYPE OF RESEARCH AM I CONDUCTING? FORMAL THEORY – RESEARCH FOR THE SAKE OF RESEARCH BY BUILDING ON OLD FACTS WILD CARD $400 WHAT ARE FOUR REQUIREMENTS OF A GOOD CAUSAL THEORY? 1. IT IS CAUSAL 2. IT IS TESTABLE USING NEW DATA 3. IT IS GENERAL 4. IT IS PARSIMONIOUS 5. IT IS NEW 6. IT IS NOT OBVIOUS WILD CARD $500
"Mario Guerrero Department of Political Science UC"