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0710 - Borough Profile Part 1

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					                                                               Part 1, Brent’s Borough Profile, Updated July 2010




Brent’s Borough Profile
The Evidence Base for Brent
Part 1: Demographics and Economic Data
Table of Contents
1.    Population Estimates ............................................................................................................. 2
2.    Population Density ................................................................................................................ 4
3.    Population Change ................................................................................................................ 5
4.    Migration................................................................................................................................ 6
5.    Diversity................................................................................................................................. 7
6.    Deprivation .......................................................................................................................... 10
7.    Income................................................................................................................................. 12
8.    Unemployment .................................................................................................................... 16
9.    Claimant Count .................................................................................................................... 17
10.   Other Benefit Claimants ...................................................................................................... 20
11.   Housing and Council Tax Benefits ...................................................................................... 22
12.   Qualifications ....................................................................................................................... 26
13.   Skills Gap ............................................................................................................................ 27
14.   Occupation .......................................................................................................................... 28
15.   Business .............................................................................................................................. 29


Key:
London Borough                                             Green
Brent Borough and Brent Wards                              Purple
                                                     Part 1, Brent’s Borough Profile, Updated July 2010

1.       Population Estimates
        Population estimates are provided by the Office of National Statistics (ONS) and the
         Greater London Authority (GLA). The ONS recently conducted a review of its national
         population projections and now estimates Brent’s population for June 2009 to be 255,5001.
         This represents a decrease of 7,500 people since the 2001 Census. Appendix 1
        The GLA produce both high and low population estimates. The high estimate for Brent is
         282,6722. This is also broken down to ward level. Appendix 3
        An independent population study commissioned by Brent estimated the population as
         closer to 289, 000 in 20073. This is closer to the GLA estimate. Appendix 2
        In November 2009, there were 4,830 lone parent households in Brent. This figure has
         decreased by 480 household from the previous year. The wards with the highest levels are
         Stonebridge, Harlesden, Kilburn, Kensal Green and Willesden Green.

Chart 1: ONS Population 2009 Population revision of Brent 4




Chart 2: ONS Population 2009 Estimates for Brent by age group1




1
  http://www.neighbourhood.statistics.gov.uk/dissemination/LeadSByAChoose.do?a=3&c=brent&d=13&i=1001x1021&m=0&r=1&s=
279197792718&enc=1&areaId=276747&OAAreaId=328340&dsInstanceId=2231
2
   2007 Greater London Authority (GLA ) Round of Ward Population Projections
3
   Mayhew Associates, Brent population estimation, household composition and change, 2007
4
  http://www.neighbourhood.statistics.gov.uk/dissemination/LeadTrendView.do?a=3&b=276747&c=brent&d=13&e=13&f=26484&g=
328340&i=1001x1003x1004x1005&l=1813&o=322&m=0&r=1&s=1279203158703&enc=1&adminCompId=26484&variableFamilyId
s=6681&xW=758
                                            Part 1, Brent’s Borough Profile, Updated July 2010
Chart 3: ONS Age groups as percentages of Brent population 1




Map 1: Density and location of young people in Brent aged 13 to 19 years 3
                                                    Part 1, Brent’s Borough Profile, Updated July 2010
2.      Population Density

Brent is one of the most densely populated Outer London Boroughs. The
average density is 61 persons per hectare (pph), with the highest rates in the
south east of the borough.
Brent is the 15th largest borough in London, with an area of 4,323 hectares (43 square kms) and a
population of 263,464 in 2001. With an average density of 61 people per hectare (pph) in 2001, it
is well above the London and Outer London averages of 46 and 35 pph respectively) 5.

Map 2: Population Density, 2001 Census




5
 2001 Census,
http://intranet.brent.gov.uk/demographic.nsf/97adad6ff206607c8025663c0065c536/1444fe88cc2376cd80256cd8003aabd8!OpenD
ocument
                                                          Part 1, Brent’s Borough Profile, Updated July 2010

3.         Population Change

According to the GLA and independent research, Brent’s Population is growing

In 2009, GLA released high and low population level projections (PLP) for Brent’s wards. The
wards which are predicted to have the highest levels of growth by 2020 are: Tokyington,
Queensbury, and Mapesbury6. Appendix 3


                                                                                   Population in each ward is
Modelled data within the customer segmentation model Mosaic
                                                                                   projected to increase from
Public Sector shows that households who live in the south of the
                                                                                     the 2001 Census by the
borough have a higher likelihood of having only lived here for
                                                                                   following amount by 2020:
less than 1 year
                                                                                  Alperton                330
                                                                                  Barnhill                -85
                                                                                  Brondesbury Park        885
                                                                                  Dollis Hill             195
                                                                                  Dudden Hill             598
Map 3: Mosaic: resident likely to have lived in the borough less than 1 year      Fryent                  351
                                                                                  Harlesden               776
                                                                                  Kensal Green           1114
                                                                                  Kenton                  129
                                                                                  Kilburn                 397
                                                                                  Mapesbury              1405
                                                                                  Northwick Park          334
                                                                                  Preston                 872
                                                                                  Queens Park             628
                                                                                  Queensbury             3570
                                                                                  Stonebridge             871
                                                                                  Sudbury                 571
                                                                                  Tokyngton             10109
                                                                                  Welsh Harp              -37
                                                                                  Wembley Central        1161
                                                                                  Willesden Green        1375




            Very unlikely
            Unlikely
            Average
            Likely
            Very likely




6
    2009 Greater London Authority (GLA ) Round of Ward Population Projections
                                                        Part 1, Brent’s Borough Profile, Updated July 2010


4.        Migration
Brent has very high levels of migration into the borough compared to the rest of London.
         Brent has the second highest number of people born outside of the UK 7
         Brent has a high inflow of migration at 9100 in 2007/08; this was the 6th highest in London8.
         National Insurance Number (NINo) registrations are a means of measuring migration into a
          borough. In 2008/09 Brent had the second highest number of adults registering for NINos
          with 18,7809. This represents a decrease of 460 NINo registrations, the first decrease in
          Brent since 2003.

         Chart 4: National Insurance Number Registrations




Map : 4 NINo, non UK Registrations number 2008/09




7
  2007/08, Annual Population Survey (APS)/Labour Force Survey (LFS), ONS
8
  ONS, Inflow of international migration
9
  National Insurance Number Allocation to Adult Overseas National Entering the UK for 2008-09, DWP
                                                           Part 1, Brent’s Borough Profile, Updated July 2010


5.         Diversity

Brent has the largest proportion of ethnic minorities in London with 71 per cent of the
population from an ethnic group other than White British.

       •   59% of the population are black, Asian and minority ethnic groups, this is double the outer
           London average10
       •   71% of the population are from a group other than white British6
       •   48% of population born outside of the UK11
       •   130 different languages are spoken in Brent schools

Map 5: Diversity across London




10
     2001 Census
11
     DMAG 2008, A profile of Londoners by country of birth Estimates, 2006 Annual Population Survey
                                         Part 1, Brent’s Borough Profile, Updated July 2010
Chart 5: Ethnicity of Brent (%)




Chart 6: BAME demographic of Brent (%)
                                            Part 1, Brent’s Borough Profile, Updated July 2010
Asian Ethnicity                                   Black Ethnicity
In 2001 nearly 28% of Brent's residents were of In 2001 22% of residents were Black or Black
Asian or Asian-British origin (over 73,000        British, almost 57,000 people
people)
                                                  Part 1, Brent’s Borough Profile, Updated July 2010
                          12
6.       Deprivation
Whilst many of Brent’s residents are affluent, parts of the borough continue to experience
high levels of deprivation.

        Brent is ranked 53rd out of 354 boroughs in the Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) 2007 (1
         = Most Deprived, 354 = Least Deprived).
        This is a drop of 28 places from our position of 81 in 2004. This moves us from being within
         the 25% most deprived local authorities in the country to be within the 15% most deprived.
        Brent is the most deprived borough compared with our west London neighbours.

         Map 6: IMD across London




Increasing levels of deprivation in Brent’s is visible 19 of the 21 wards.

        Only Harlesden and Queen’s Park wards have become less deprived compared to
         respective IMD levels in 2004. These wards were already experiencing high levels of
         deprivation. Appendix 5
        Deprivation levels in the south of the borough have increased, in particular the areas of
         Barnhill, Willesden Green, Dollis Hill and Dudden Hill.
        New pockets of deprivation have appeared in the north of the Borough in historically
         affluent areas of Preston, Kenton and Queensbury have all become more deprived.




12
   Index of Multiple Deprivation 2007(Appendix)
http://www.communities.gov.uk/communities/neighbourhoodrenewal/deprivation/deprivation07/
                                                         Part 1, Brent’s Borough Profile, Updated July 2010
Map 7: IMD in Brent 2004 and 2007

IMD 2004                                                        IMD 2007




The IMD is measured through 7 domains: Income, Employment, Health, Education, Barriers
to Housing and Services13, Crime and Living Environment.

        Brent is in the top 20 most income deprived local authorities in the country. Just over 16%
         of Brent’s SOAs are within the top 10% most deprived.
        Almost 64% of Brent’s SOAs are within the top 10% most deprived in the country for
         Barriers to Housing and Services (compared to 36% in 2004).

Maps 8: IMD by Domain, (Dark red = top 10% most deprived, with exception of Barriers to Housing, Services
Deprivation in Brent where Black = top 10% most deprived)

                                                  Income                                                      Housing &
                                                                                                               Services




                                          Employment                                                                Crime




13
  In regards to the Domain ‘Barriers to Housing and Services’, access to owner occupancy and distance to amenities such as GP
surgeries and Post Offices are the main factors affecting performance in this domain.
                                                       Part 1, Brent’s Borough Profile, Updated July 2010

                                                  Heath                                    Education &
                                                                                                 Skills




Please refer to research reports on Index of Multiple Deprivation for further detail found:
http://intranet.brent.gov.uk/bv1nsf.nsf/24878f4b00d4f0f68025663c006c7944/557b0352b4be1c4d8
025742e004bf7a2!OpenDocument


7.       Income14
Brent has one of the lowest average annual incomes compared to the rest of London.

        In 2009 the average household annual income for Brent residents was £31,430; this was a
         decrease from the 2008 figure of £33,026.
        Brent has the 3rd lowest average income levels in London (only Barking & Dagenham, and
         Newham have lower levels than Brent).
        There are 21,504 households in Brent (20.4%) that has an average annual income of
         £15,000 or less.

Chart 7: Brent Residents Mean 2009 annual income - London Comparison (£)




14
  http://www.statistics.gov.uk/downloads/theme_labour/ASHE-2009/2009_res_la.pdf;
Gavurin Pay – Gross annual 2009. http://insight.gavurin.com/
                                              Part 1, Brent’s Borough Profile, Updated July 2010
Chart 8: Brent Workers Mean 2009 annual income - London Comparison (£)




Charts 9: 2004 to 2009 Brent Mean Annual Income, Borough Comparison (£)

Brent Resident’s                                 Brent Workers
                                 Part 1, Brent’s Borough Profile, Updated July 2010

Map 9: 2008 Mean Annual Income
                                               Part 1, Brent’s Borough Profile, Updated July 2010

Map 10: 2008 Density of Households in Brent with mean income of £15,000 or less
                                                             Part 1, Brent’s Borough Profile, Updated July 2010
                                       15
8.         Unemployment

Brent unemployment rate has been steadily increasing since April 2008, and are marginally
above the rates for London and Great Britain.

          Employment rate for October 2008 to September 2009 was 70.8%, representing a 1%
           increase since July 2008 – June 2009.
          Employment rate is marginally above the London average (69.3%) but below Great Britain
           (72.9%). Brent is now ranked 15th in London for employment levels.
          The ethnic employment rate of 64.4% (2nd quarter 2009) is below the average employment
           rate for Brent. The employment rate for Pakistanis/Bangladeshis is 58.8%, up from 37.8%.
           The employment rate for Black or Black British is 59.3%, which has decreased from 64.4%.
          People with a disability also have a lower employment rate in Brent at 57.7 (Oct 07 – Sep
           08), however, this has been increasing over time.
          Brent’s unemployment rate is 8.6 (Oct 08 – Sep 09).The rate is marginally above the
           London rate (8.4) and Great Britain average (7.4).

Chart 10: Employment Rate (%)                                      Chart 11: Unemployment Rate (%)




Legend: Green= Great Britain, Red = London, Blue = Brent
                                                        16
Chart 12: Employment Rate – By Ethnicity 2009                       Chart 13: Employment Rate – Disabled




                                                                    Legend: Brent = Red, Disabled = Blue



Refer to Appendix 7 for data



15
     Nomis, Annual population survey, https://www.nomisweb.co.uk/default.asp
16
     http://insight.gavurin.com/
                                                         Part 1, Brent’s Borough Profile, Updated July 2010
                                     17
9.       Claimant Count
Brent has had a sharp increase in people claiming Jobseekers Allowance (JSA) and
National Insurance credits since the recession began.

        In April 2010, Brent’s JSA claimant rate is 9,608DWP figures show that JSA claimant count
         in Brent decreased by 244 between mid-March and Mid-April 2010.
        JSA claimant counts in the priority neighbourhoods far exceed the Brent average. In
         Harlesden the count in April 2010 was 9.94%, Stonebridge 10.41%m, St Raphael’s 8.4%,
         Church End 10.45%, and South Kilburn 10.02%
        Brent has the 8th highest claimant count in London

Chart 14: JSA claimants in Brent, Apr 08 – Apr 2010 (%)




17
   Nomis, JSA claimant count records the number of people claiming Jobseekers Allowance (JSA) and National Insurance credits
at Jobcentre Plus local offices. https://www.nomisweb.co.uk/default.asp
           Part 1, Brent’s Borough Profile, Updated July 2010
Chart 15




Chart16
                                             Part 1, Brent’s Borough Profile, Updated July 2010

Chart 17: Claimant Counts, London Comparison, December 2009 (number)




Refer to Appendix 8 for data
                                                           Part 1, Brent’s Borough Profile, Updated July 2010
                                                      18
10. Other Benefit Claimants
          As of May 2009, 12,450 people in Brent claimed a type of incapacity benefits, 4,605 of
           these claimants were for mental health..
          There is a gap of 630 claimants between the highest and lowest wards for people claiming
           incapacity benefit. There were 985 people claiming in Stonebridge and 275 people claiming
           in Kenton.
          There is a 555 gap between the highest and lowest wards for people claiming disability
           living allowance. There are 865 people claiming in Stonebridge and 310 people claiming in
           Northwick Park.

Chart 18: Working-age client group - key benefit claimants, May 2009

                                                        Brent           Brent        London      Great Britain
                                                      (numbers)          (%)           (%)           (%)
Total claimants                                        30,450           16.8          15.4           15.8
   Job seekers                                           8,620           4.7           4.2            4.0
   ESA & Incapacity benefits                            12,450           6.9           6.2            7.1
   Lone parents                                          4,830           2.7           2.6            1.9
   Carers                                                1,610           0.9           0.9            1.1
   Others on income related benefits                     1,230           0.7           0.6            0.5
   Disabled                                              1,320           0.7           0.8            1.0
   Bereaved                                                390           0.2           0.2            0.2
Key out-of-work benefits                                27,130          14.9          13.6           13.4



Chart 19: Incapacity benefit, August 2009




18
     Nomis, August 2008, https://www.nomisweb.co.uk/default.asp
                                                Part 1, Brent’s Borough Profile, Updated July 2010


Chart 20: mental disease living allowance, August2009
                                                            Part 1, Brent’s Borough Profile, Updated July 2010
11. Housing and Council Tax Benefits19

The impact of the recession can also be seen in the increase of people claiming housing
and council tax benefits from the council.

          Brent’s total number of recipients for housing and council tax benefits in June 2010 is
           40,525. Since June 2008, there has been an increase of 6,280 (18.34%) customers
           receiving this benefit. This is 2,969 more households than in April 2009.
          Comparisons between Map 8 and Map 9 show how the numbers of claimants have
           increased in all wards throughout the borough within a single year.
Map 12: Housing and Council Tax Benefit in Brent, (Nov 9)




19
     Brent Council, Housing and Council Tax Benefit Recipients
                                               Part 1, Brent’s Borough Profile, Updated July 2010

Map 13: Housing and Council Tax Benefit in Brent, December 2009.




Refer to Appendix 9 for data

                              Tax and Housing Benefits Claimants
                             Ward       April  December 2009 Change
                                        2009
                      Alperton              1,302     1,353          4% (51)
                      Barnhill              1,816     1,871          3% (55)
                      Bronsbury Park        1,427     1,506          5% (79)
                      Dollis Hill           1,564     1,574          1% (10)
                      Dudden Hill           1,683     1,828          9% (145)
                      Fryent                1,249     1,262          1% (4)
                      Harlesden             3,157     3,354          6% (197)
                      Kenton                640       6,70           5% (30)
                      Kensal Green          2,101     2,186          4% (85)
                      Kilburn               2,861     2,889          1% (28)
                      Mapesbury             1,790     1,798          0.5% (8)
                      Northwick Park        748       767            2% (19)
                      Preston               1,304     1,353          4% (49)
                      Queensbury            1,257     1,282          2% (25)
                      Queen’s Park          1,407     1,539          9% (132
                      Sudbury               1,538     1,578          3% (40)
                      Stonebridge           3,187     3,290          3% (103)
                      Tokynton              1,293     1,297          0.4% (4)
                      Welsh Harp            1,657     1,732          4% (75)
                      Wembley Central       1,371     1,420          4% (49)
                      Willesden Green       2,132     2,274          7% (142)
                                                 Part 1, Brent’s Borough Profile, Updated July 2010


Map 14: Density of Brent residents accessing 1-4 services




Map 15: Density of Brent residents accessing greater than 5 services
                                         Part 1, Brent’s Borough Profile, Updated July 2010

MAP 16: Brent HMOs, Landlords and Registered Social Landlords
                                                           Part 1, Brent’s Borough Profile, Updated July 2010
                                    20
12. Qualifications
Brent has very low qualification levels compared with the rest of London.

           Brent’s has the second lowest levels in London for ‘NVQ 1 and above’ at 56.5% well below
            London average of 73.7% and Great Britain at 78.9%
           Brent has the third lowest levels in London for ‘NVQ 2 and above’ at 48.7% well below
            London average of 63.8% and Great Britain at 65.2%
           Brent has the fourth lowest levels in London for ‘NVQ 3 and above’ at 38.6% well below
            London average of 51.6% and Great Britain at 47.0%
           Brent has the sixth lowest levels in London for ‘NVQ 4 and above’ at 26.7% well below
            London average of 38.6% and Great Britain at 29.0%

       Maps 17: Qualification levels, London Comparison (%)
        NVQ 1 & above                                            NVQ 2 & above




           NVQ 3 & above                                        NVQ 4 & above




Refer to Appendix 10 for data


20
     Nomis, Qualifications, NVQ, Jan – Dec 2008, https://www.nomisweb.co.uk/default.asp
                                                         Part 1, Brent’s Borough Profile, Updated July 2010
13. Skills Gap21
          The percentage of employers reporting a skill gap (employees who are not fully proficient at
           their job) increased to 13.86 in 2007 from 11 in 2005. This is still one of the lowest in
           London




Blue = lowest gap (10.5-14.7), Orange = Highest gap (18.9-24.5)

Chart 21: National Employers Skills Survey




21
     LSC, DCSF and SSDA, Bi-annual National Employer Skills Survey, 2007
                                                Part 1, Brent’s Borough Profile, Updated July 2010

14. Occupation22
          The highest percentage of residents in Brent are employed in management occupation at
           17.8%, numbers within this occupation have been increasing over 2009.
           Associate professional occupations is the second largest occupation grouping in Brent at
           15.1%, however, these numbers have decreased from 15.5% since 2008.
           Professionals and elementary occupations share the 3rd largest occupational category with
           12.9%. With the former increasing their presence in the borough during 2009.

Chart 21: Brent, % in employment by occupation December 2009




Refer to Appendix 11 for data




22
     Nomis, Annual population survey
                                                       Part 1, Brent’s Borough Profile, Updated July 2010
                          23
15. Business

Modelled data shows Brent has one of the lowest GDP levels in London Boroughs after the
recession.

         Gross Domestic Product (GDP) provides a measure of total economic activity in a region.
         GDP in Brent for the 4th quarter 2009 was 96.0, representing a decline from the first quarter
          of 2009 of 105.5. GDP has declined over the last year from a high point of 112 in the first
          quarter of 2008. The largest drop occurred at the start of the recession when it was 110.3.
         Modelled analysis of ONS GDP data place Brent as having the 4th lowest GDP in London
          for the fourth quarter of 2009, the same position Brent held in the first quarter of 2009.

Chart 22: Brent, GDP Index, 2007-2009




Chart 23: GDP Index, London Comparison, Quarter 4 2009




Refer to Appendix 12 for data



23
     Gauvrin, ONS GDP Data, modelled to local authority level, 2009 (does not contain agriculture data)
                                                   Part 1, Brent’s Borough Profile, Updated July 2010
          Nationally the majority of industries have decreasing GDP with business, services and
           finance showing the most significant fall. There was, however, increasing outputs from
           Health and Social Work services and recreation services24.
          Modelled analysis show that the manufacturing industry will be the worst affected in Brent
           by the changes in GDP.

Chart 24: GDP Change Implications of Employment by industry, Quarter 1 2009




24
     ONS, Statistics Bulletin, Outcome, Income and Expenditure Briefing Note, 2009
                                            Part 1, Brent’s Borough Profile, Updated July 2010
      The largest number of workplaces in Brent are in the Finance and Insurance industry,
       followed by the hotel and restaurant

Chart 25: Workplaces in Brent by Industry, Quarter 1 2009

				
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