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RSMC NADI-Tropical Cyclone Centre

VIEWS: 14 PAGES: 38

									 6th TC RSMC Technical Coordination
     Meeting, Brisbane, Australia,
          2 – 5 Nov 2009

Presentation on RSMC Nadi-TCC
           Activities
              R. Prasad
       Director RSMC Nadi-TCC
NADI TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE
        RSMC NADI - TCC

•   Approved by WMO EC in June 1995
•   Acts as RSMC for Tropical Cyclones in SW
    Pacific
•   Primary Area of Responsibility:
    – Equator to 25 South
    – 160 East-120W
•   Also Tropical Cyclone Advisory Centre
    (TCAC) for Aviation under ICAO for area:
    – Equator to 40 South
    – 160E TO 120W
                Nauru




                RSMC Nadi’s Area of           Intl Marine Area
                Responsibility for Tropical
                Cyclone Advisory for Intl     Countries served with
                Air Navigation                Forecasts & Warnings

                                              Countries served with
                                              Special Advisories
RSMC NADI AOR
 SOUTH PACIFIC TC ADVISORY
          SYSTEM
STAGES OF DEVELOPMENT
   1. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
   2. TROPICAL DEPRESSION
   3. TROPICAL CYCLONE with
   A) GALE intensity, - average winds 34-47 knots.
   B) STORM intensity, - average winds 48-63 knots
   C) HURRICANE intensity, - average winds over 63
      knots. ( Usually referred to as “HURRICANE” ).

   Note: Winds averaged over 10 minutes
SOUTH PACIFIC TC ADVISORY
         SYSTEM

   BULLETINS
• SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN
   • contains public ALERTS & WARNINGS.
• SPECIAL ADVISORY BULLETIN
   • for Samoa & Vanuatu
• TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY
   • Advisory on TCs & TDs
• TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY
   • Summary of significant distrubances (including
         TCs) in region
    SOUTH PACIFIC TC ADVISORY
             SYSTEM
  PHASES
• Early Information Phase (beyond 48 hrs)
  - provide information on TC development or movement
      beyond 48 hrs threat period.
• ALERT Phase (24-48 hrs lead time)
  - Alert people of possible TC threat within next 24-48
      hour period.
• WARNING Phase (within 24 hrs)
  - Warning for people to take precautions on impending
      threat within 24 hours.
WARNING DISSEMINATION
   - communications
International
• WMO Global Telecommunication
  System (GTS)
• ICAO Aeronautical (Fixed)
  Telecommunication Network (AFTN)
• Emergency Managers Weather
  Information Network (EMWIN)
• Facsimile/Email/Internet
• RAdio NETwork (RANET)
• ISCS/WAFS
WARNING DISSEMINATION
National
• Radio (FM/AM) main means
• TV coverage increasing but not full.
• EMWIN – for Disaster Management
• RANET – in some countries e.g. Niue,
  Tuvalu, Vanuatu,
TC Trends
1969-2008
TC trends
Tropical Cyclone Activity in RSMC Nadi
RSMC NADI AOR 2005/06 TC Season Activity
                       Low first identified                      Initial tropical cyclone phase

  Name          Date           Lat.       Long.           Date        Time           Lat.            Long.

  Tam          06 Jan         15.0°S    178.0°W       12 Jan          0000        14.5°S           178.5°W

  Urmil        13 Jan         12.8°S    175.8°W       13 Jan          1800        14.6°S           174.4°W

  Jim*         26 Jan         17.7°S     146.7°E      27 Jan          0600        18.1°S            148.4°E

  Vaianu      09 Feb          15.0°S    179.5°W       11 Feb          1200        17.4°S           174.9°W

  Wati        15 Mar          14.0°S    175.5°W       19 Mar          0600        15.7°S            164.5°E

                       Maximum Intensity (knots)                      End of Tropical Cyclone Phase
 Name       Date       Time     Lat.     Long.     Int.     Cat.     Date     Time          Lat.       Long.
 Tam       13 Jan      0600    18.3°S   171.2°W      45      1                          28.5°S       146.5°W
 Urmil     14 Jan      1200    19.8°S   172.8°W      60      2                          24.6°S        158.2°E
 Jim*      30 Jan      1800    18.6°S   165.3°E      80      3                          25.1°S       175.5°W
 Vaianu    14 Feb      0000    22.9°S   176.1°W      70      3                          28.0°S       150.0°W
 Wati      22 Mar      1200    18.0°S   153.9°E      85      3                          20.9°S       164.8°W
RSMC NADI AOR 2005/06 TC Season Activity
RSMC NADI AOR 2006/07 TC Season Activity
                      Low first identified                    Initial tropical cyclone phase
 Name         Date           Lat.        Long.         Date        Time           Lat.          Long.
 Xavier      20 Oct         09.4°S      167.6°E    21 Oct          1800          10.5°S        167.8°E
 Yani       18 Nov          08.8°S      171.5°E   22 Nov           0000          12.3°S        162.4°E
 Zita        20 Jan         11.5°S      165.5°W    22 Jan          1800          14.2°S     157.3°W
 Arthur      20 Jan         12.2°S      177.0°W    24 Jan          0600          14.5°S     167.5°W
 Becky      25 Mar          12.0°S      157.5°E    26 Mar          1200          13.1°S     163.0°W
 Cliff       01 Apr         13.5°S      175.0°E    04 Apr          0600          17.2°S     179.4°W

                     Maximum Intensity (knots)                    End of Tropical Cyclone Phase
 Name      Date       Time  Lat.    Long.      Int Cat.          Date     Time     Lat.    Long.
 Xavier   24 Oct     1200 13.7°S 169.7°E        95 4            26 Oct 0000 14.7°S 170.3°E
 Yani     23 Nov     1800 13.9°S 163.1°E        75 3            24 Nov 1800 13.2°S 162.6°E
 Zita     23 Jan     1200 17.6°S 153.4°W        60 2            25 Jan    0000 31.0°S 149.1°W

 Arthur   25 Jan     0600    16.3°S    159.1°W    60      2     27 Jan    1200     31.4°S   145.0°W

 Becky    28 Mar     0000    18.0°S    167.4°E    60      2     29 Mar    0600     20.9°S   167.3°E
 Cliff    05 Apr     1800    23.7°S    175.4°W    55      2     06 Apr    1200     27.4°S   168.4°W
RSMC NADI AOR 2006/07 TC Season Activity
RSMC NADI AOR 2007/08 TC Season Activity
                   Low first identified              Initial tropical cyclone phase
  Name        Date        Lat.       Long.    Date            Time       Lat.      Long.
  Daman      03 Dec      12.0°S     174.5°W 05 Dec            0200      12.1°S    177.7°E

  Elisa      07 Jan      18.0°S     175.9°W   10 Jan          0000      21.4°S   175.6°W

  Funa       15 Jan      16.0°S     162.0°E   16 Jan          0600      14.8°S    164.8°E

  Gene       26 Jan      11.8°S     179.9°E   28 Jan          0600      17.4°S    178.4°E

                   Maximum Intensity (knots)                    End of Tropical Cyclone Phase

Name       Date      Time    Lat.     Long.    Int     Cat.     Date    Time      Lat.      Long.

Daman     07 Dec 0600 15.5°S 178.6°E           100      4      09 Dec 0000       18.1°S  178.0°
                                                                                           W
Elisa     11 Jan              173.2°
                     0000 23.9°S                50      2      11 Jan   1200     24.6°S 170.7°
                                W                                                       W
Funa      19 Jan 0600 21.9°S 175.0°E            95      4      20 Jan 1800       21.6°S 169.1°E

Gene      01 Feb     0000 20.0°S 170.8°E        85      3      06 Feb 0600       29.9°S     174.8°
RSMC NADI AOR 2007/08 TC Season Activity
RSMC NADI AOR 2008/09 TC Season Activity


                                    2008/9 TCs
No.   TC Name        TC Dates       Peak Intst (kt)   Cat      Countries Affected

1     Hettie 08F   28 – 29 Jan 09         35          1     Tonga
2     Innis        17 – 18 Feb 09       35-40         1     New Caledonia
3     Joni         11 - 13 Mar 09         55          2     Southern Cooks
4     Jasper       23 - 25 Mar 09         60          2     New Caledonia
5     Ken          17 – 19 Mar 09         50          2     No land area
6     Lin          03 – 05 Apr 09         60          2     Tonga
RSMC NADI AOR 2008/09 TC Season Activity
RSMC Nadi Forecast Position Errors
TC Threat Map




        WARNING


            ALERT
TC FORECAST
  TRACK &
UNCERTAINTY
    MAP
OCEANIC WARNING
                  HURRICANE
                  STORM
                  GALES
CONSENSUS FORECAST
                  TRAINING
•Training Courses conducted under JICA Third
      Country Training Programme
   – 5 years of training completed 2001- 2005
  – 3 years training 2007-2009 under way with last
     training to be conducted in Feb 2009.
  – Submission to JICA already made for next (3-year)
     training programme in meteorology.
• Attachment Training to RSMC Nadi
  - From Tonga & Niue (2007)
  - From Samoa & Cook Is (2009)
  - From Vanuatu (2010?)
                  TRAINING
• Training of RSMC Nadi Forecasters
  - Secondment of Australian TC forecasters to RSMC
     Nadi under AusAID funding
  - TC module training by Australian expert.
  - Participation in WMO organised and coordinated
     training
     e.g. - WMO SH Training on TCs & PWS (2007, 2009)
            - Training organised by METEO France.
        OTHER ACTIVITIES
• Severe Weather Forecast & DRR
  Demonstration Project (SWFDRDP)
  • First Phase involves 4 countries: Fiji, Samoa,
    Solmon Is, Vanuatu
  • RSMC Nadi-TCC to provide TC Advisory to 3-5
    days.
• Tsunami EWS
  • FMS/RSMC to participate in Joint Tsunami
    Warning Centre activities.
• Disaster Awareness – Ongoing programme
• Climate Change – Participation in Climate
 Change Awareness
Recent & Planned Improvements
1) FIMS Upgrade Project - Following
     upgrades completed:
  – Main servers upgrade (Dec’08)
  –Satellite receiving systems upgrade
    • MTSAT upgrade (Mar’08)
    • GOES upgrade (July’09)
    • Comms Upgrade (Dec’08 – July’09)
    • HRPT upgrade (July’09)
    • TC Module Upgrade (Mar’09)
    • TC Module Training (July’09)
Recent & Planned Improvements
 2) Climate Network Upgrade (on-going)
 3) Outstation Upgrade (on-going)
 4) Weather Radar for Fiji’s Northern
      Division (to be completed 2010)
 5) Flood Early Warning System
  – Two rivers near completion – equipment
     installed, comms under way.
  – Three other rivers being considered.
         RSMC Nadi Problems & Needs
1.       Severe Staffing constraints -
     •      Training of meteorologists 3-4 per year for next 3 years
     •      Staff supplementation
2.       Regular Upgrade needed to Fiji Integrated Met System (FIMS)
3.       Forecasting tools needed for
     •      Storm surge and wave
     •      Heavy rainfall/flash floods
4.       Limited equipment maintenance capability - Training required for electronic
         technicians.
5.       Need for development of Multi-hazard Early Warning System.
6.       RSMC Nadi website needs major upgrading to cope with user demands.
         This includes computer facilities to host the site and a mirror site.
7.       Need to implement quality management system – under way for aviation.
     Recommended Needs
1.   Meteorologist training a very high priority
       o   Limited Training opportunities – only BOM and NZMSL
       o   Lack of scholarships a major constraint
2.   Regional synoptic observation network and reporting
     schedule needs urgent improvement to meet required
     standards and increasing demands for information.
3.   Improvement needed in communications for effective
     delivery of warnings and information
       •   Between RSMC and NMSs – GTS, backup
           communications, EMWIN
       •   NMS to Users/Public – TV & Radio broadcast, RANET,
           Website access, autofax, vice-recorded bulletins via
           telephone, marine radio broadcast.
         Recommended Needs
5.       Feedback on RSMC Nadi performance
     •      NMS encouraged to report on operational matters including warning/advisory
            services
6.       Improved access to TC impact data & reports.
     •      NMSs to make extra efforts to collect and forward TC impact data and reports to
            RSMC Nadi for compilation and action to WMO
7.  In-service training for meteorologists/forecasters and support staff on new
    observing, analysis and forecasting techniques and products
8.  Regular consultation with stakeholders to determine changing user
    requirements and priorities for enhancement of national/regional services.
9.  General education and awareness on
   • probabilistic forecast.
   • Consensus forecast
   • Storm tide (consists of normal astronomical tide + storm surge + wave setup)
   • TC Categories and corresponding effects (Australian Categories 1 to 5)
END OF PRESENTATION

  THANK YOU FOR
      YOUR
    ATTENTION

								
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