Newsletter 2010 12

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Newsletter 2010 12 Powered By Docstoc
					                    David Sharek’s
                    Growth Stock Newsletter
                    Searching for Tomorrow’s Stock Market Winners Today

                               December 3, 2010

                The Cheat Sheet Rules the Market
I haven’t paid close attention to The     again the Cheat Sheet was dead on.                    n’t gotten hyped up like silver & gold
Cheat Sheet since April 2009. At the                                                            have.
                                          Looking Ahead, the Economy is Rising
time I thought the stock market was
                                                                                                Internet advertising should be hot, and
bottoming. This proved to be correct,     Below is an updated Cheat Sheet. The
                                                                                                is right up my alley. (BIDU)
in retrospect the S&P 500 hit Bear        green is where we need to be looking,
                                                                                                is the top stock in my Power Rankings.
Market lows a month earlier.              red is what we need to be selling.
                                                                                                The stock is $109 today and I think its
The Cheat Sheet has Been Dead On          The next stage on the Cheat Sheet is                  fair value in 2012 is $217.
                                          Stock Market is Peaking/Economy is
At the time The Cheat Sheet said Fi-                                                            Beware of Certain Commodities
                                          Rising. Favored sectors include Com-
nancials and Penny Stocks were the
                                          modities like Metals, Energy compa-                   Commodities have been hot for years,
best investments to make, and this
                                          nies (think Oil) and Media outlets such               and I wouldn’t want to buy some at
also proved to be correct. I put around
                                          as Internet Advertising.                              this point. Take silver, since August
10% of client assets in the Proshares
                                                                                                the iShare Silver Trust (SLV) ETF has
Ultra Financials (UYG), an ETF that       What to Buy Now
                                                                                                gone from $19 to $29. Now think
does double what the financial sector
                                          The Cheat Sheet is telling me com-                    about that: wouldn’t that have been a
does. I bought UYG at $3 that month
                                          modities like aluminum and steel                      good return on silver for a decade? It
and it doubled within a year. Unfortu-
                                          should do well in 2011. That makes                    happened in four months. End of runs
nately we never got that double, I sold
                                          sense because companies growing                       usually occur after a long move higher
at $4 three months after purchase.
                                          and need new machines and ware-                       then a quick run-up at the end.
Of course during the market’s crash of    houses.
                                                                                                Small investors are now invested in
2008 The Cheat Sheet told us to get
                                          I try to avoid commodities, since they                commodities — this reminds me of all
into Food Manufacturers, safe Health-
                                          don’t work well within my system of                   the small investor homeowners who
care stocks, and Education — correct.
                                          picking stocks. Sophisticated traders                 bought homes with no money down.
Stay a Step Ahead                         are often sell commodities when I buy,                Some commodities are dangerously
                                          and I get stuck riding the stocks down.               high and could crash like the housing
One mistake I’ve made is not looking
                                          But I like oil. I’ll look at buying oil and           market did.
far enough ahead on The Cheat Sheet.
                                          oil service stocks, this commodity has-
For instance retail has been a huge
winner since the 2008 crash, as some
retail stocks have tripled since then.
Zumiez (ZUMZ) is a clothing store that
                                                 Stock Market              Stock Market               Stock Market            Stock Market
sells clothes for skateboarders. It’s a           is Declining             is Bottoming                 is Rising              is Peaking
                                             (Economy is Peaking)      (Economy is Declining)    (Economy is Bottoming)    (Economy is Rising)
little company that had a tough time
during the recession, the kids just           Consumer Items                Financials                  Autos                 Commodities
                                                Auto Parts               National Banks             Homebuilders              Aluminum
wore their old clothes. But ZUMZ had            Drugstores             Poor Credit Lenders           Restaurants              Chemicals
the combination of being a Penny            Food Manufacturers          Regional Banks             Vacation Stocks               Steel

Stock (got below $10 a share in April             Education                    REITS                Cyclical Stocks              Energy
                                              For Profit Schools                                                            Oil Companies
2009) and a Retailer. The Cheat Sheet                                      Penny Stocks                 Retail            Oil and Gas Drillers
liked both. ZUMZ has since tripled in            Healthcare                                       Apparel Retailers
                                              Drug Companies                                      National Retailers             Media
price to $30.                                      HMO's                                                                      Advertising
                                              Medical Devices                                         Technology          Internet Advertising
I remember telling clients in                                                                          Internet
                                                  Utilities                                        IT Outsourcing
2008/2009 that Retail would be a           Water & Electric Distrib.                            Computers/Networking
huge winner someday. I bought some                                                                     Software

but should have loaded up. Now Retail                                                             Telecommunications
has been on fire in 2010, and once
           David Sharek’s Growth Stock Newsletter                                                                                                                                                                                                                     December 2010

                                                                                                   Last Month's Additions and Deletions
Changes to the Growth Portfolio                                                                                                                                                                            Buy                                                       Sell
                                                                                                   Symbol                            Stock                                 Buy Date                             Sell Date                                                     Gain/Loss
There wee no changes made to the Growth Portfolio during                                                                                                                                                  Price                                                     Price
the month of November.                                                                             Bought



Current Holding — Deckers (DECK)
Last month Deckers (DECK), signed Tom Brady to be its
spokesman for UGGs Men’s division, which includes shoes,
outerwear and accessories. Before you can say “I’m not going to
wear UGGs” consider this: Look at the boots to the right. Which are
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             P/E is Good.
for men? Which would you wear? Answer: they are all men’s UGGs. I
would wear the one on the right.
Its not far-fetched to think Decker’s could have a catalyst in the                                                                                      Above: UGGs account for 90% of Deckers’ sales.
works with UGGs for men. DECK knows men’s footwear from selling
its Teva line of casual sandals. If it makes a masculine UGG, guys                                                                                Deckers Outdoor (DECK)                                                                                             P/E: 20
will wear them.                                                                                                                                       Long Term Growth Rate:                                              25%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Annual EPS
The negative spin on DECK stock is The Cheat Sheet said to buy the                                                                  80                                                                                                                               Growth
stock when The Stock Market’s Rising/Economy is Bottoming and                                                                                                                                                                                                        2004     0.70
now when you look at the ten-year chart you can see a stock that’s                                                                  70
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     2005     0.81
                                                                                                                      Stock Price

already made a big move. DECK is in the Growth Portfolio, but I am                                                                  60                                                                                                                               2006     1.08
reluctant to add it to the Aggressive Growth Portfolio because quar-                                                                                                                                                                                                 2007     1.69
                                                                                                                                    50                                                                                                                               2008     2.42
terly estimates don’t look great.
                                                                                                                                    40                                                                                                                               2009     2.98
Good                     Earnings Table                                                                                                                                                                                                                              2010     3.69e
DECK manage-             Quarterly Profits                                   Qtrly Annual Profit Est.                               30                                                                                                                               2011     4.09e
                                                                             Profit a=actual results
ment plays a             in Earnings Per Share or EPS

good game of
                                                                             Grwth 2010 2011 2012                                   20
                                          1.74      vs.    1.35        =      29% 3.11 3.45 3.24                                         De                  Ma   Ap                         A      S     O
                         4QtrsAgo                                                                                                           c- 0 J an- Feb-             Ma       J     J                       N
                                                                                                                                                                           y- 1 un- 1 ul -10 ug- 1 ep- 1 c t-10 ov- 1
                                                                                                                                                           10 r-10 r-10
underpro-                Beat, Met,       beat      up     down
                                                                                                                                                9     10                       0     0            0     0             0                                                Estimates
mise/                    Missed by        33¢       9¢      11¢                                                       Qtrly EPS                  +29%                          +48%                       +156%                            +24%                     +11% +15%
overdeliver. It          .                                                                                            Growth                     4QtrsAgo                      3QtrsAgo                   2QtrsAgo                         LastQtr                  NxtQtr    2QtrsOut
pleases cur-             3QtrsAgo         0.46     vs.      0.31      =       48%      3.33     3.69     3.74
rent investors           Beat, Met,       beat    down       up       up                                                                                          Above: Deckers (DECK) one-year chart.
when the                 Missed by        15¢      4¢        4¢       3¢
company                                                                                                                                                Deckers Outdoor (DECK)                                                                                          Annual EPS
                         2QtrsAgo         0.23     vs.  0.09          =      156% 3.52          3.95     3.82
beats the                Beat, Met,       beat    same same           up                                                                                                               2000 - 2010                                                                     Growth
street.                  Missed by        13¢                         1¢                                                            90                                                                                                                                 2000    0.24
                                                                                                                                    80        I originally purchased                                                                                                   2001    0.12
Bad                      LastQtr          1.07     vs.      0.86      =       24%      3.69     4.09     4.36
                                                                                                                                    70        DECK for clients on                                                                                                      2002    0.12
The problem is           Beat, Met,       beat    down       up       up
                                          14¢      1¢        1¢       7¢                                                                      6/11/09 at a spit-                                                                                                       2003    0.26
management               Missed by
                                                                                                                                    60        adjusted price of $24.
                                                                                                                      Stock Price

is consistently          NxtQtrEst        1.93      vs.     1.74       =      11%                                                                                                                                                                                      2004    0.70
                                                                                                                                    50        Now the stock’s pushing
cautious on              Up, Same,         up       up       up                                                                                                                                                                                                        2005    0.81
                                                                                                                                              $80 and is very extended
future expec-            Down by           2¢       7¢       6¢                                                                     40                                                                                                                                 2006    1.08
                                                                                                                                              on the ten-year chart.
tations, so              .
                                                                                                                                    30                                                                                                                                 2007    1.69
                         2QtrsOutEst     0.53      vs.      0.46       =      15%
quarterly                Up, Same,       down      up
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       2008    2.42
estimates for                                                                                                                       20                                                                                                                                 2009    2.98
                         Down by          1¢       11¢
the most part            .                                                                                                          10                                                                                                                                 2010    3.69e
always look              3QtrsOutEst      0.22      vs.     0.23       =      -4%                                                    0                                                                                                                                 Yearly EPS
poor. I think            Up, Same,         up                                                                                             Ja
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Growth: 31%
DECK will                Down by           1¢                                                                                                    01          02           03          04          05          06          07          08           09          10

                                                                                                                      EPS                                                                                                                                              Yearly Stock
continue to              .                                                                                                                -50% 0% 117% 169% 16% 33% 56% 43% 23% 24%
                         4QtrsOutEst      1.15      vs.     1.07       =       7%                                     Growth                                                                                                                                           Growth: 47%
beat, but when
                         Up, Same,
that stops look          Down by                                                                                                                                   Above: Deckers (DECK) ten-year chart.
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                   David Sharek’s Growth Stock Newsletter                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  December 2010

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  What’s Hot/What’s Not
Stocks on the Radar — (ACOM)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Financials are doing really (ACOM) is a web-                                                                           uses profits to                                                                           But like many stocks in the mar-                                                                                          well, but The Cheat Sheet
site that allows people to research                                                                               purchase other companies with                                                                           ket now, ACOM has already made                                                                                            doesn’t agree they should
their family trees. What gives this                                                                               data sources, solidifying its lead-                                                                     a big run. The stock broke out                                                                                            go higher. Last month I
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    mentioned the ProShares
company its edge is Ances-                                                                                        ing status as a family historian.                                                                       September 3, 2010 at $16 and
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Ultra Financials (UYG) ETF has billions of records in                                                                                                                                                                                       now its $25. Note in the one-year
                                                                                                                  The Cheat Sheet says we need to                                                                                                                                                                                                   “broke out big time” but
its database. has                                                                                                                                                                                           chart that the stock hasn’t cor-                                                                                          since then its gone down
                                                                                                                  overweight Media in the next
barriers to entry against competi-                                                                                                                                                                                        rected since then. I’m putting                                                                                            a little. The financials I
                                                                                                                  stage of the cycle Stock Market is
tion, unlike Groupon which could                                                                                                                                                                                          ACOM on my radar and will try to                                                                                          like are MasterCard (MA)
                                                                                                                  Peaking/Economy is Rising.
be replicated.                                                                                                                                                                                                            pick up shares around $25.                                                                                                and Visa (V). MasterCard
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    is in the Growth Portfolio
                          (ACOM)                                                                        P/E: 30                                               (ACOM)                                                                                                                 Annual EPS       and Visa is in the Core
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           2000 - 2010                                                                                             Growth
                                        Long Term Growth Rate:                                    20%                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Portfolio. People are
              40                                                                                                                                                  50                                                                                                                                                               2000
                                                                                                                               Annual EPS                                                                                                                                                                                                           spending and card com-
              35                                                                                                               Growth                                                                                                                                                                                              2001
                                                                                                                                                                  40                                                                                                                                                               2002             panies make a few cents
                                                                                                                               2009 0.51
              30                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   2003             off every transaction.
                                                                                                                               2010 0.75e       Stock Price                                                                                                                                                                        2004
Stock Price

              25                                                                                                               2011 1.00e                         30
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   2005           • Last month, on this page,
              20                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   2006             I mentioned Chinese
                                                                                                                                                                  20                                                                                                                                                               2007
              15                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    insurance company CNin-
                                                                                                                                                                  10                                                                                                                                                               2009 0.51
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    sure (CISG) as a stock I
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   2010 0.75e       had on my radar.
               5                                                                                                                                                   0
                   De           J an          Fe           Ma        A   M       J un     Ju     Au       S     O                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Yearly EPS
                                                                r-1 pr-10 ay-                       g- 1 ep- 1 c t-1 Nov-
                      c-   09          - 10      b   -10           0          10      - 10 l -10        0     0     0     10
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          10       Growth: 31%      Yesterday CISG got ham-
Qtrly EPS                   +767%                                 -11%                 +50%               +140% +25% +150%                      EPS                                                                                                                                              750% 47%                          Yearly Stock     mered on news CNinsure
Growth                      4QtrsAgo                              3QtrsAgo             2QtrsAgo           LastQtr          NxtQtr    2QtrsOut   Growth                                                                                                                                                                             Growth: 47%      was paying its insurance
                                Above: (ACOM) one-year chart                                                                                                     Above: (ACOM) ten-year chart                                                                                                                           salesman a portion of
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    their compensation in
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    stock options. This

Stocks on the Radar — 7 Days Group (SVN)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            sounds OK, but the op-
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    tions being granted are
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    not for CISG but for Fi-
One of the best stock pickers of                                                                                  In 2009, we went into Stock Mar-                                                                        I covered Chinese travel stocks in
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    nestart Holdings Limited.
our time is Ken Heebner, who                                                                                      ket Rising/Economy is Bottoming                                                                         last month’s newsletter, but was-
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    It hasn’t been confirmed
manages the CGM Focus Fund                                                                                        mode Heebner was big on Ford (F)                                                                        n’t aware of 7 Days Group (SVN).                                                                                          Finestart is a real com-
(CGMFX). Heebner uses a system                                                                                    (Autos) which is up around 65%                                                                          7 Days is the third largest econ-                                                                                         pany, as it doesn’t seem
similar to mine (high profit growth)                                                                              this year.                                                                                              omy hotel chain in China, with                                                                                            to be registered as one in
but the man has a better grasp on                                                                                                                                                                                         461 hotels.                                                                                                               China or Hong Kong. So
                                                                                                                  Last quarter he bought Price-
The Cheat Sheet than I do. For                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      CNinsure might be issuing
                                                                                                         (PCLN) and Southwest                                                                           SVN broke out at $13 in August so
instance, when the market was                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       options for a fake com-
                                                                                                                  Airlines (LUV) (Vacation stocks)                                                                        the current $25 price is high. I                                                                                          pany. Additionally, the
free-falling in 2008-2009 he
                                                                                                                  which I think he was a little late                                                                      and would like to buy it but its                                                                                          company might have to
loaded up on financial stocks
                                                                                                                  on. Still, I like the fact he still sees                                                                gone too-far, too-fast. I’ll put this                                                                                     start paying more cash
when most other managers would-
                                                                                                                  the Stock Market Rising — and                                                                           stock on my radar, and look to buy                                                                                        instead of those options,
n’t have had the kahunas to.
                                                                                                                  likes Travel stocks.                                                                                    on a correction.                                                                                                          which will hurt profit
                                              7 Days Group (SVN)                                                               P/E: 37                                                                  7 Days Group (SVN)                                                                                                         Annual EPS
                                        Long Term Growth Rate:                                    25%                                                                                                                          2000 - 2010                                                                                         Growth           CISG was hot last month,
              30                                                                                                                                                  40                                                                                                                                                               2000             now its not. This is the
                                                                                                                               Annual EPS
              25                                                                                                               Growth                                                                                                                                                                                              2001             second Chinese company
                                                                                                                               2009 -0.23                         30                                                                                                                                                                                in two months that got
              20                                                                                                               2010 0.39e                                                                                                                                                                                                           hammered on news its
                                                                                                                                                    Stock Price

Stock Price

                                                                                                                               2011 0.61e
              15                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   2005             financials were not in
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   2006             order. In October China
              10                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   2007             New Borun (BORN) went
                                                                                                                                                                  10                                                                                                                                                                                from being on my radar to
               5                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   2009 -0.23
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   2010 0.39e       getting booted off on
               0                                                                                                                                                   0                                                                                                                                                               Yearly EPS
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    accounting concerns. At
                   No       D     J     F    M     Ap                           Au       S     O
                                                      r-1 M ay- J un- J ul -1
                      v- 0 ec- 0 an- 1 eb-1 ar-1
                          9     9     0    0     0       0     10    10       0
                                                                                   g- 1 ep- 1 c t-1
                                                                                       0     0      0
                                                                                                                                                                           c- 0
                                                                                                                                                                                           c- 0
                                                                                                                                                                                                           c- 0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          c- 0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         c- 0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         c- 0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         c- 0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         c- 0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        c- 0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       c- 0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               9   Growth: 32%      this point Chinese stocks
Qtrly EPS                   N/A                                   +117%                +280%              +500% +214% +900%                        EPS                                                                                                                                                             295%            Yearly Stock     are high risk, right reward.
Growth                      4QtrsAgo                              3QtrsAgo             2QtrsAgo           LastQtr          NxtQtr    2QtrsOut      Growth                                                                                                                                                                          Growth: 28%

                                 Above: 7 Days Group (SVN) one-year chart                                                                                                              Above: 7 Days Group (SVN) ten-year chart
Growth Portfolio — Power Rankings
Power Rankings
Rank Trend Symbol Company                             Comment
    1       BIDU                            The Cheat Sheet says Internet Advertising is set to thrive. Think BIDU not GOOG.
    2       AAPL Apple                                Oddly, Heebner sold most of his AAPL last quarter. I think he's wrong, P/E's only 17.
    3       PCLN                        From $218 to $418 this year, still not overpriced with 24 P/E. Cheat Sheet likes Travel .
    4       ESRX Express Scripts                      Touching an all-time high, but safe Healthcare stocks aren't in now (Cheat Sheet).
    5       GMCR Green Mntn Coffee                    Keurig will be huge this Christmas, and pricey coffee packets will sell in 2011.
    6       DECK Deckers Outdoor                      This stock is red-hot but I'm not buying more, I'll let it ride.
    7       CMG Chipotle                              Restaurants have been hit for a while, as has CMG. Again, let what we have ride.
    8       CTSH Cognizant Tech. Solut.               IT outsourcing is doing very well, as The Cheat Sheet thought it would.
    9       HLF   Herbalife                           Stock seems to go up $1 a week. I just bought HLF at $55 in Aug, now its $70.
   10       ROVI Rovi                                 Also seems to go up $1 a week. ROVI's menus power Google Internet TV, Apple TV.
   11       MA    Mastercard                          This Financial should do well as its tied to Retail with the economy picking up steam.
   12       CTRP Ctrip,com                            Chinese Internet Vacation site not timely right now, but I like CTRP here.
   13       BWLD Buffalo Wild Wings                   Restaurants are doing great, Buffalo Wild Wings just good. Maybe next year?
   14       CHSI Catalyst Hlth Solut.                 Also touching an all-time high, but safe Healthcare stocks aren't in now (Cheat Sheet).
   15       HTHT China Lodging Group                  I picked the wrong Chinese hotel chain to own, should have had SVN first (its hotter).
   16       ISRG Intuitive Surgical                   Co. still growing, just not at the rate it used to. PE only 26 now though, good value.
   17       BPI   Bridgepoint Education               Education is not in with the economy doing better. Love the numbers with BPI tho.
   18       STRA Strayer Education                    There's going to be a huge cloud over Education stocks for years, I need to sell STRA. — Your Internet Portfolio Manager
Learn the System, Follow the Portfolio, Own the Stocks                                               David Sharek is Chief Executive Officer and Portfolio Manager
                                                                                                     of (Shareks, LLC) which is registered as an
1.   Learn the System by reading Sharek’s new book The School of Hard Stocks.                        investment advisor with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
2.   Follow the Portfolio on
                                                                                                     David believes corporate profits (earnings) ultimately drive the
3.   Own the Stocks in one of two ways:
     a. Follow the changes online and manage your portfolio yourself.                                prices of individual stocks and developed a system which, he be-
     b. Have us manage your portfolio & get free access to our Stock Research.                       lieves, allows him to find tomorrow’s stock market winners today.

          Stock Education                                     Stock Research                                        Portfolio Management
It's time to get your portfolio back to even          Your Online Portfolio Manager                      Let us manage your stock portfolio
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Sharek’s new book The                                                                                                                    Aggressive
School of Hard Stocks                                                                                     Portfolio          Growth
                                                                                                                                           Growth        S&P 500
shows investors A to Z                                                                                    Returns           Portfolio
the characteristics of                                                                                    2003               41%            32%            26%
stocks that give inves-
tors the largest gains                                                                                    2004                9%             8%             9%
over extended periods,                                                                                    2005               16%            23%             3%
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winners today -- and                                                                                      2007               42%            45%             4%
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ting their portfolios Buy it Now      Buy it Now                                                          2008               -58%           -63%           -38%
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