Slide 1 - National Governors Association

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					Healthy Places: The Community of
            Tomorrow
                     USA Population
      2000
       – 275 million people
       – Median age: 35.8 yrs


      2030
       – 351 million people
       – Median age: 39 yrs




Source: US Census Bureau
                       USA Population
                                (in millions)


    400,000,000                                 351,000,000
    350,000,000
                           275,000,000
    300,000,000
    250,000,000
    200,000,000
    150,000,000
    100,000,000
     50,000,000
              0
                            2000                2030
Source: US Census Bureau
                       USA Population
                        Median Age

       45
                                   39
       40             36
       35
       30
       25
       20
       15
       10
        5
        0
                    2000         2030
Source: US Census Bureau
  USA Population 2000 by Age Groups
                       13%

                                                           28%




            39%

                                                      20%



                      19 and under   20 to 34   35 to 54    65+

Source: US Census Bureau
  USA Population 2030 by Age Groups
                  20%
                                                            26%




                                                            19%
                 35%



                       19 and under   20 to 34   35 to 54    65+

Source: US Census Bureau
            USA Population 2000-2030
                 by Age Groups
                                                   19%




         47%
                                                                 12%




                                                 22%


                      19 and under   20 to 34   35 to 54   65+

Source: US Census Bureau
        Changes with age
Housing
– Housing choices change as people age
– “Empty Nester” housing
– Assisted Living
Transportation
– Mobility is decreased
– Driving a car eventually is not an option
– Decrease of activity can lead to health decline
Changing Housing Choices
Senior Housing Choices
                                             National
                             Percent Preferring a
   Percent                  Townhouse in the City
                        Preferring a Townhouse                             in the City
                        30

                        25

                        20

                        15

                        10

                         5

                         0
                                 25-34            35-44   45-54      55+
                                                    Age Group
                                                                  NAHB, 1999
Dowell Myers
USC School of Policy, Planning, and Development
                Percent Calling Factor Very Important if
          Percent Calling Factor Very Important
                         Buying a Home Today
                            if Buying a Home Today
                                                                                     Crime Rate
                     90
                     80
                     70                                                              School District
                                              Percent Calling Factor Very Important if
                                                       Buying a Home Today
                     60
                                                                              Crime Rate
                                         90
                     50
                                         80                                       Highway
                     40                  70                                   School District
                                                                                  Access
                                         60
                     30                  50
                                                                              Highway
                     20                  40                                        Location to
                                                                              Access

                     10
                                         30
                                         20
                                                                                   Shopping
                                                                              Location to
                                         10
                                                                              Shopping
                       0                  0
                                                                              Public Public
                            25-34      35-44 45-54
                                           25-34 35-44    45-54 55+
                                                                  55+
                                                                              Transportation
                                                    Age Group
                                                                                     Transportation
                                                                             NAHB, 1999
                                         Age Group
                                                                                    NAHB, 1999
Dowell Myers
USC School of Policy, Planning, and Development
    Problems with Zoning
Plans tend to replicate existing
trends
Many favor large lot, expensive
housing
They are often barriers to higher
density uses and rental units
Market cannot respond to needs
and changes
Regional Housing Needs
     Assessment


         May 2004
  The
Chicago
Region
 Cities and
Villages of
the Region
          Population age 30-54
     2000 Housing Patterns – Chicago
                 Region
        29%




                                                52%


           19%
              SFR       Attached   Small Apts


Source: Census Bureau
            Population 65+
     2000 Housing Patterns - Chicago
                  14%




     22%                                        50%




                  14%

        SFR     Attached   Small Apts   Large Apts


Source: Census Bureau
           Population 65+
2030 Housing Patterns – Chicago Region
A majority of residents in large apartment complexes will be 65
                              or older
          Large Apts                             71%


          Small Apts               35%


            Attached                39%


                SFR                  41%


                       0%   20%    40%     60%    80%
   Chicago Region Housing Mismatch
    Trend (NIPC) Projected Need vs. Zoning Supply

160,000
140,000
120,000
100,000
 80,000
 60,000
 40,000
 20,000
      0
    $0

             50

                     00

                             25

                                     50

                                                75

                                                00

                                                00

                                                75

                                                00

                                                25

                                                00
          $2

                  $5

                          $6

                                  $7

                                            $8

                                             ,0

                                             ,5

                                             ,8

                                             ,5

                                             ,1

                                             ,0
                                          $1

                                          $1

                                          $1

                                          $2

                                          $3

                                          $5
                                    Projected Need   Supply
Apartment/Condominium
           $300 - $1500 rent
           urban and suburban
           redev, infill and
           greenfield
Townhouse
     Trend = 71,000 units
     Matched Demand =
     152,000 units
     $600 - $2000
     urban and suburban
     redev, infill and
     greenfield
Small Lot Single Family
             Trend = 24,000 units
             Matched Demand =
             202,000 units
             $700 - $2500
             urban and suburban
             infill and greenfield
Below Market Rent
          Matched Demand =
          73,000 units
          $0 - $500
          urban and suburban
          redev, infill and
          greenfield
                 Waukegan Strategies
Infill in Urban Neighborhoods   Station Area Development

                                                  Capitalize on
Downtown                                          Lakefront
Revitalization                                    setting in
                                                  Corridor
                                                  Development

East-West
Corridor
Enhancement
Transportation Issues
Transportation Problems
Alternatives to Driving
Pedestrians in the Conventional Suburban Development




        supporting alternative modes through urban design
Pedestrians: 25th Anniversary of the Moonwalk




 supporting alternative modes through urban design
Solution: Walkable Cities
    Housing Choice
 What makes people walk?
– Walkable
  Distances
 What makes people walk?
– Practical Destinations
 What makes people walk?
– Pleasant and
  Interesting
  Environment, a
  Human Scale
Pleasant Environment
The 2040 Growth Concept
     The 2040 Growth Concept
The 2040 Growth Concept results
in:
Less Congestion
Less Transportation investment
More walk, bike, and transit trips
 What Makes 2040 Work


 –   Mixed use design
 –   Density in proximity to commerce and
     transit
 –   Mixed age and income neighborhoods
RIVER DISTRICT 1999
                     VMT per Capita and Transit Ridership per Capita 1990 to 2000
                                           Portland Metro Area


 1.3

1.25

 1.2

1.15

                                                                                      DVMT/Capita
 1.1
                                                                                      Ridership/Capita
1.05

   1

0.95

 0.9
       1990   1991    1992   1993   1994   1995   1996   1997    1998   1999   2000
Challenges for the Region
                Project Methodology

   Extensive
       Public
Participation


   Hands-on
 Workshops
 Throughout
  the Region
Transportation
   Economy
   Land Use




                 Shared Values, Shared Future
Strategic Land Use Changes In
 Relatively Few Areas Provide
 Great Benefits to the Region
     What can Governors do?
            Housing
Develop state or regional housing needs
analysis – identify how future housing needs
change.
Monitor local housing markets, look for problems
caused by undersupply of needed housing
Develop state or regional housing fair share
programs.
Incentives and models for more flexible zoning
    What can Governors do?
        Transportation
Support well rounded transportation
policies – multi modal
Support connecting land use and
transportation
Encourage the development of walkable
cities and regions
Raise the issues of seniors and mobility
For more Information, go to
     www.frego.com




 333 S.W Fifth Avenue, Suite 300   Portland, OR 97204
          503-228-3054      Fax 503-525-0478