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					Solar Power - for Sustainable Energy
International Symposium, Monday 5th of May, Stockholm




External Cost of Solar Electricity
- and the context


 Philipp Preiss
 Institute of Energy Economics and Rational use of Energy (IER)
 Department for Technology Assessment and Environment
 University of Stuttgart


                                                         Philipp Preiss   May, 5th 2008
Presentation Outline

●   Aims and principles of Impact Pathway Approach (IPA)
●   Important pollutants and impacts considered
●   Example for impact assessment – “from emission to external costs”
●   Specification of Solar Electricity Technologies
●   LCI data and corresponding external costs analysis
●   Context – Comparison with external and internal, i.e. social costs of
    other new technologies – state of the art 2010
●   Social costs solar electricity - state of the art 2030
●   Summary



                                                   Philipp Preiss   Stockholm, May 5th 2008   2
  Aim of the External Costs - Methodology:
    helps to take into account all externalities in
    a consistent way when making decisions:
Investment decisions
Technology Assessment (subsidies, research support)
Consumer decisions (e.g. by adjusting prices, by
internalisation of external costs)
Cost-benefit analyses, esp. for environmental and health
regulation
Green accounting


                                        Philipp Preiss   May, 5th 2008
                       Basic principles
1) Pressures, e.g. emissions of substances to
   environmental media have to be estimated (LCI)
2) Assessment of effects/impacts (e.g. health risk) caused
    be the pressures
   relation between pressure and impact is in general not
    linear and
   impacts depend on time and location of pressure

      “Bottom-up approach” needed to account for the
   complex pathways:
   the ‘Impact Pathway Approach’ (IPA)


                                           Philipp Preiss   May, 5th 2008
 Impact Pathway Approach (IPA) – first part
                                       Damage
Emission = LCI data

                       Transport and
                         Chemical
                      Transformation




                                           Philipp Preiss   Stockholm, May 5th 2008   5
Pressures included:
   Classical air pollutants (NH3, NMVOC, NOX, PPMco,
   PPM2.5, SO2 )
   Greenhouse gases
   Heavy metals & radio nuclides
   POPs & Dioxins
   Noise and Landuse change
Impacts included:
   Human Health
   Crops and building materials
   Biodiversity
   Climate Change….
                                     Philipp Preiss   Stockholm, May 5th 2008   6
  Example: Classical air pollutants


From dust, SO2, NH3, NOx & NMVOC emission to air
  via dispersion and chemical transformation
       to concentrations and depositions of:
 Fine primary particles with diameter below 2.5 µm (PPM2.5)
 Coarse primary particles with diameter between 2.5 and 10 µm (PPMco)
 Secondary Inorganic Aerosols (SIA): ammonium nitrate and sulphate particles
 Dry and wet deposition of oxidized and reduced nitrogen
 Dry and wet deposition of sulphur
 Ozone (SOMO35: sum over means of 35 ppb)
                                                    Philipp Preiss   Stockholm, May 5th 2008   7
         Quantification of Impacts and Costs
           Relation between pressure and impact
Concentration Response Function (CRF):


  Example: Additional Years of Life Lost
           =Σ ∆conc. PPM2.5 * Population * 6.5 · 10-5
Number of Years of Life Lost [YOLL] due to 1 tonne of fine dust
 PPM2.5 emitted at a location in Europe leads to a range of ca.

0.01 to up to 15 life years lost
  – depending on location and height of release.



                                           Philipp Preiss   Stockholm, May 5th 2008   8
Impact Pathway Approach         Weighting and Aggregation
                                  Damage
    Emission

                Transport and                          Monetary
                  Chemical                             Evaluation
               Transformation




                                      Philipp Preiss   Stockholm, May 5th 2008   9
                     Basic principles -
              Part 2: Quantification of Costs

Preferences of society are expressed, and
effects are transformed into monetary units:
   allows transfer of values
   units are conceivable
   direct use of results in CBA and for internalising via
   taxes possible.
   (…however, e.g. ‘utility points’ would give the same
   ranking).

                                          Philipp Preiss   May, 5th 2008
Monetary Valuation
           Health end-points                                                    Euro
                                                          per case / per YOLL
             Increased mortality risk (infants)                      3,000,000
              New cases of chronic bronchitis                          200,000
        Increased mortality risk - YOLLacute                            60,000
   Life expectancy reduction - YOLLchronic                              40,000
              Respiratory hospital admissions                            2,000
                  Cardiac hospital admissions                            2,000
                      Work loss days (WLD)                                 295
    netto Restricted activity days (netRADs)                               130
      Minor restricted activity days (MRAD)                                 38
                Lower respiratory symptoms                                  38
                        LRS excluding cough                                 38
                                   Cough days                               38
          Medication use / bronchodilator use                                1
                                                  Philipp Preiss   Stockholm, May 5th 2008   11
   Quantification of Costs


Monetary value: 40,000 Euro per Year of Life Lost
Damage costs Example:
  0.5 YOLL per tonne PPM2.5 * 40,000 Euro per YOLL

                       = 20,000 Euro per tonne PPM2.5




 … and other air pollutants?

                                       Philipp Preiss   Stockholm, May 5th 2008   12
Concentration change of ozone [µg*day/m3] due to
NOx emission of a power plant close to Luxemburg




                               Philipp Preiss   Stockholm, May 5th 2008   13
Population Distribution




                          Philipp Preiss   Stockholm, May 5th 2008   14
Population * Delta Conc.* CRF   numb. of life years lost




                                 Philipp Preiss   Stockholm, May 5th 2008   15
Specification of Solar Electricity Technologies at present
     solar PV, roof (900 kWh/m2a)
     solar PV, open space (900 kWh/m2a)
     solar thermal, parabolic trough (1900 full load hours, > 2000 kWh/m2a)

                           net el.        el.    availability tech. life   spec.       spec.    fixed costs
                          power at   efficiency    factor       time Investment demolition           of
                          el. peak   at el. peak (full load                 costs      costs     operation
                            load        load       hours)                (overnight (greenfield
 energy                                                                    capital       )
 carrier   Technology                                                      costs)

                           [MW]         [%]         [h/a]       [a]          [€/kWel]         [€/kWel]          [€/kWel/yr]
              poly
           cristalline,
               roof       0.00312        15         1071        25             9400                0                94
   PV
              poly
           cristalline,
           open space     0.00312        15         1071        25             6500                0                65
   solar
 thermal   solar trough     80         13.2         1900        30             3360                3               50.4
                                                                   Philipp Preiss     Stockholm, May 5th 2008      16
Material and Resource Use Relative to Photovoltaic                                                                      (IER 2005)



                             100
                              90
Material and Resource Use

Iron / Copper [%]; Bauxite
  Relative to Photovoltaic




                              80
                              70
                              60
            [‰] .




                              50
                              40
                              30
                              20
                              10
                               0
                                         Iron                 Copper                               Bauxite
                             Hard Coal                Lignite                              Gas CC
                             Nuclear (PWR)            Photovoltaic 5 kW                    Wind 1500 kW (5,5 m/s)
                             Wind 1500 kW (4,5 m/s)   Hydro 3,1 MW
                                                                          Philipp Preiss      Stockholm, May 5th 2008    17
Life Cycle Analysis – LCI data derived with tool: Balance


                                  Solar PV open space
                                  (SO2)




                                    Philipp Preiss   Stockholm, May 5th 2008   18
Emissions Relative to a Fossil Fueled Power Plant (present),
                                                                   source (CASES 2008)

 400%

 350%
              hard coal condensing power plant
 300%         solar PV, roof
 250%         solar PV, open space
              solar thermal, parabolic trough
 200%

 150%

 100%

  50%

  0%
        CO2        CH4         NOx      NMVOC    PPM2.5               PPMco                  SO2

                                                  Philipp Preiss       Stockholm, May 5th 2008   19
External costs of Solar Electricity Technologies
(2010 in Euro-Cent2000, EU27)       different impact categories
 External Costs [Euro-Cent per kWh]




                                      1.2
                                      1.0
                                                                                               GHG
                                      0.8
                                                                                               Radio
                                      0.6                                                      Envi
                                                                                               Hum
                                      0.4

                                      0.2
                                      0.0
                                            solar PV, roof   solar PV, open     solar thermal,
                                                                 space         parabolic trough
                                                                              Philipp Preiss      Stockholm, May 5th 2008   20
External costs of Solar Electricity Technologies
(2010 in Euro-Cent2000, EU27)       different pollutants
 External Costs [Euro-Cent per kWh]




                                      1.2
                                                                               GHG
                                      1.0                                      HM
                                                                               SO2
                                      0.8
                                                                               PPM25
                                      0.6                                      PPMco
                                                                               NOX
                                      0.4                                      NMVOC
                                                                               NH3
                                      0.2

                                      0.0
                                            solar PV, roof   solar PV, open           solar thermal,
                                                                 space               parabolic trough
                                                                              Philipp Preiss   Stockholm, May 5th 2008   21
External costs of Solar Electricity Technologies
(2010 in Euro-Cent2000, EU27)       different life cycle stages
  External Costs [Euro-Cent per kWh]



                                       1.2
                                       1.0
                                                                                     dismantling
                                       0.8                                           operation
                                                                                     construction
                                       0.6

                                       0.4
                                       0.2

                                       0.0
                                             solar PV, roof   solar PV, open           solar thermal,
                                                                  space               parabolic trough

                                                                          Philipp Preiss   Stockholm, May 5th 2008   22
Context! Total Private Costs [Euro-Cent2005 per kWh] in 2010
(CHP by „Exergy“& solar PV EU_mid, at present - New Technologies!)
                                                     MCFC (biogas)
                                                SOFC (natural gas)
                                                MCFC (natural gas)
 biomass (w oodchips) CHP w ith an extraction condensing turbine
     biomass (straw ) CHP w ith an extraction condensing turbine
                        hard coal CHP w ith backpressure turbine
      natural gas combined cycle CHP w ith backpressure turbine
                hard coal CHP w ith extraction condensing turbine
              natural gas CHP w ith extraction condensing turbine
                                    solar thermal, parabolic trough
                                              solar PV, open space
                                                       solar PV, roof
                                                    w ind, off-shore
                                                     w ind, on-shore
                                       hydropow er, pump storage
                                     hydropow er, dam (reservoir)
                              hydropow er, run of river >100MW
                              hydropow er, run of river <100MW
                                  hydropow er, run of river 10MW
                                            natural gas, gas turbine                              Private Costs
                                       natural gas combined cycle
                                                           lignite IGCC
                                   lignite condensing pow er plant
                                                     hard coal IGCC
                              hard coal condensing pow er plant
                                                 light oil gas turbine
                               heavy oil condensing pow er plant
                                               nuclear pow er plant


                                                                          0   10   20   30         40     50          60            70
                                                                                         Philipp Preiss   Stockholm, May 5th 2008        23
Context! Total External Costs [Euro-Cent2005 per kWh] in 2010
with GHG at 19 Euro per tonne CO2equiv.
                                                     MCFC (biogas)
                                                SOFC (natural gas)
                                                MCFC (natural gas)
biomass (w oodchips) CHP w ith an extraction condensing turbine
     biomass (straw ) CHP w ith an extraction condensing turbine
                        hard coal CHP w ith backpressure turbine
      natural gas combined cycle CHP w ith backpressure turbine
                hard coal CHP w ith extraction condensing turbine
              natural gas CHP w ith extraction condensing turbine
                                   solar thermal, parabolic trough
                                              solar PV, open space
                                                       solar PV, roof
                                                     w ind, off-shore
                                                     w ind, on-shore
                                       hydropow er, pump storage
                                     hydropow er, dam (reservoir)
                              hydropow er, run of river >100MW
                              hydropow er, run of river <100MW
                                  hydropow er, run of river 10MW
                                            natural gas, gas turbine
                                       natural gas combined cycle
                                                           lignite IGCC
                                   lignite condensing pow er plant
                                                      hard coal IGCC
                              hard coal condensing pow er plant
                                                 light oil gas turbine
                               heavy oil condensing pow er plant
                                               nuclear pow er plant

                                                                          0   0.5   1   1.5          2     2.5           3           3.5
                                                                                          Philipp Preiss   Stockholm, May 5th 2008         24
Context! Total Social Costs [Euro-Cent2005 per kWhel] in 2010
                                                  MCFC (biogas)
                                             SOFC (natural gas)
                                             MCFC (natural gas)
biomass (woodchips) CHP with an extraction condensing turbine
    biomass (straw) CHP with an extraction condensing turbine
                      hard coal CHP with backpressure turbine
    natural gas combined cycle CHP with backpressure turbine
              hard coal CHP with extraction condensing turbine
            natural gas CHP with extraction condensing turbine
                                 solar thermal, parabolic trough
                                           solar PV, open space
                                                     solar PV, roof
                                                   wind, off-shore
                                                   wind, on-shore
                                     hydropower, pump storage
                                    hydropower, dam (reservoir)
                               hydropower, run of river >100MW
                               hydropower, run of river <100MW
                                  hydropower, run of river 10MW                 Private Costs             ExternalCosts 2010
                                         natural gas, gas turbine
                                     natural gas combined cycle
                                                       lignite IGCC
                                 lignite condensing power plant
                                                  hard coal IGCC
                             hard coal condensing power plant
                                              light oil gas turbine
                              heavy oil condensing power plant
                                             nuclear power plant

                                                                      0   10   20     30             40      50         60          70
                                                                                    Philipp Preiss        Stockholm, May 5th 2008        25
Total Social Costs [Euro-Cent2005 per kWh] – Ranking in 2010
                                                       solar PV, roof
                                              solar PV, open space
                                                SOFC (natural gas)
                                                     MCFC (biogas)
                                                MCFC (natural gas)
                                    solar thermal, parabolic trough
                                                 light oil gas turbine
                               heavy oil condensing pow er plant
                                            natural gas, gas turbine
     biomass (straw ) CHP w ith an extraction condensing turbine
                                       hydropow er, pump storage
                                     hydropow er, dam (reservoir)
                                  hydropow er, run of river 10MW
                              hydropow er, run of river <100MW
                                                     w ind, off-shore
                                                      hard coal IGCC
                              hard coal condensing pow er plant
                                                     w ind, on-shore                                                   Total costs Euro 2005
                                       natural gas combined cycle
                                                           lignite IGCC
                                   lignite condensing pow er plant
      natural gas combined cycle CHP w ith backpressure turbine
              natural gas CHP w ith extraction condensing turbine
biomass (w oodchips) CHP w ith an extraction condensing turbine
                              hydropow er, run of river >100MW
                        hard coal CHP w ith backpressure turbine
                                               nuclear pow er plant
                hard coal CHP w ith extraction condensing turbine


                                                                          0   1   2   3   4   5   6      7         8   9 10 11 12 13 14 15
                                                                                                  Philipp Preiss         Stockholm, May 5th 2008   26
An estimation of Social Costs [Euro-Cent2005 per kWhel] in 2030

                                     25
                                                                    External Costs 2030
  Social costs [Euro-Cent per kWh]




                                                                    Private Costs 2030
                                     20


                                     15


                                     10


                                      5


                                      0
                                          solar PV, roof   solar PV, open space               solar thermal,
                                                                                             parabolic trough
                                                                                Philipp Preiss   Stockholm, May 5th 2008   27
Summary - Conclusions
 IPA is necessary to estimate actual impacts of emissions
 because they can be very site specific
 Total social costs and not only environmental performance
 nor only private costs have to be taken into account
 External costs of solar electricity are low
 Social costs of solar electricity decreases in future.
 However, they will be still up to an order of magnitude
 higher than conventional technologies.



                 More information
                 ExternE:         http://www.ExternE.info
                 EcoSenseWeb:     http://EcoSenseWeb.ier.uni-stuttgart.de
                 NEEDS project:   http://www.needs-project.org
                 CASES project:   http://www.feem-project.net/cases
                                           Philipp Preiss   Stockholm, May 5th 2008   28
Acknowledgements
- NEEDS and CASES project
- Life Cycle Inventory Data and Private Costs Data:
Dr. Markus Blesl and Dipl.-Ing. Oliver Mayer-Spohn
- External Costs, EcoSenseWeb: Dipl.-Ing. Volker Klotz




                                         Philipp Preiss   Stockholm, May 5th 2008   29

				
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