New BLS ES-202 Data on Job Creation and Job Destruction by nyut545e2

VIEWS: 4 PAGES: 22

									   New BLS ES-202 Data on
Job Creation and Job Destruction
               June 2003
              Richard Clayton
              Jason Faberman
                David Talan
             James R. Spletzer
      U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
          Clayton_R@BLS.GOV
           BLS Data Source
• ES-202: quarterly reports from all UI
  covered business - establishment level

• 8 million records linked longitudinally

• 1990 - current quarter Job
  creation/destruction
  – Private sector only
  – excludes private households
  – excludes self-employed
 Traditional Cross-sectional
 ES-202 employment statistics

June 2002 Employment:      108,514,155
September 2002 Employment: 107,896,027
Net Employment change         -618,128

(not seasonally adjusted)
  Job Creation/Job Destruction
• Job creation is employment gain from:
   – Opening of establishments
   – Expansion of existing establishments,
• Job destruction is employment lost from:
   – Closing establishments, plus
   – Contracting establishments
• The difference between job creation and
  job destruction is the more traditionally
  observed net change in employment
            Definitions

– Openings:
   • Positive third month employment for
     the first time and no link to any
     predecessor in prior quarter.

– Expansions
   • Positive third month employment in
    previous and current quarters with an
    increase over this period.
             Definitions
• Closings:
  – Decline from positive employment to
    zero employment in current period.
  – Establishment that ceases to report,
    and does not have an identified
    successor.

• Contractions
  – Declining employment from prior to
    current quarter (remaining positive).
  How did private employment fall by 618,128
     between June & September 2002?

                Number of
              Establishments   Number of Jobs          Rate


Opening          301,875         1,454,044      1.3%
                                  Created
                                                              6.5%
Expanding       1,383,495        5,604,565      5.2%
                                  Created

Contracting     1,566,901        6,222,723
                                                5.8%
                                 Destroyed
                                                              7.1%
Closing          297,841         1,454,014
                                 Destroyed      1.3%

Net change      2,829,221         -618,128      -0.6%
 Job Creation & Job Destruction

Between June 2002 and September 2002:
   • Employment fell by 618,128
          (net growth rate = -0.6%)
   • 7,058,609 jobs created
          (job creation rate = 6.5%)
   • 7,676,737 jobs destroyed
          (job destruction rate = 7.1%)
  Job Creation & Job Destruction

• shows tremendous establishment level
churning underlying net employment growth

• 13.6% (6.5% + 7.1%) of jobs are either
created or destroyed during the quarter
    Longitudinal ES-202 Microdata

Matching establishments across quarters
  1) Establishment specific identifier
  2) Predecessor & Successor numbers
  3) Probability based statistical match

Potential of Using Wage Records:
   Follow groups of individuals from closed UI
   accounts to newly opened UI accounts
  Longitudinal ES-202 Microdata:
     Two Examples of Uses

• Business Cycle Analysis

• Business Demographics
          Business Cycle Analysis

                          DRAFT seasonally adjusted data
Percent                   Net Employment Growth Rate (quarterly)
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
       1992Q3

                1993Q3

                         1994Q3

                                  1995Q3

                                           1996Q3

                                                    1997Q3

                                                             1998Q3

                                                                      1999Q3

                                                                               2000Q3

                                                                                        2001Q3

                                                                                                 2002Q3
               Business Cycle Analysis
                                 DRAFT seasonally adjusted data
Percent                          Job Creation       Job Destruction

8.5


8.0

7.5


7.0
      1992Q3

               1993Q3

                        1994Q3

                                  1995Q3

                                           1996Q3

                                                    1997Q3

                                                             1998Q3

                                                                      1999Q3

                                                                               2000Q3

                                                                                        2001Q3

                                                                                                 2002Q3
   Job Creation - Job Destruction Rates
                                (Seasonally Adjusted)
9.00
                Job Creation
8.00

7.00                                                   Job Destruction
        Expanding
6.00
                  Contracting
5.00

4.00

3.00
           Opening
2.00

1.00
                      Closing
0.00
19 3

19 1

19 3

19 1

19 3

19 1

19 3

19 1

19 3

19 1

19 3

19 1

19 3

19 1

20 3

20 1

20 3

20 1

20 3

20 1

      3
     Q

     Q

     Q

     Q

     Q

     Q

     Q

     Q

     Q

     Q

     Q

     Q

     Q

     Q

     Q

     Q

     Q

     Q

     Q

     Q

     Q
  92

  93

  93

  94

  94

  95

  95

  96

  96

  97

  97

  98

  98

  99

  99

  00

  00

  01

  01

  02

  02
19




       Job Creation      Expanding   Opening   Job Destruction   Contracting   Closing
     Business Demographics
Wyoming Labor Force Trends, January 2002
               Uses of Data
Job creation and job destruction data:
• help economists, and policy makers in assessing
  the business cycle.
• highlight forces behind the net employment
  change.
• help understand the life cycle of establishments
• Identify growing and troubled industries.
• Identify growing and industries geographic by
  measuring openings and expanding businesses.
             Uses of Data
• Allows States to compare their JC/JD
  rates
• Measure effectiveness of incentive
  programs:
  – business development zones
  – small/minority business development
    programs
  – loans/grants programs
     Business Demographics
            Methods
• UI laws requires reporting of legal
  predecessor
• State staff review
• BLS adds automated probability-based
  match
• BLS adds manual review of large
  openings/closings
• adding employee level data to aid in
  identifying predecessor/successors
     Business Demographics
• Job Creation and job destruction data
  reveal some aspects of business
  ‘demographics’ such as :
  – establishment openings
  – establishment closings
  – establishments survival
  – establishments life cycle
       BLS Publication Plans
  Summer 2003
• National history
  – openings
  – expanding
  – contracting
  – closing
• Quarterly Release (7 month lag)
  Late ‘03 - ‘04
  – Creation/Destruction by size, state, industry
  – Business survival rates
  – Births and Deaths
 Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey
      Monthly Hires and Separations
             (in thousands)
7,000

6,000
         Hires
5,000

4,000

3,000                     Separations

2,000

1,000
              01




              02
     0




              01




              01




              02




              02
              01




              02




              03
               1




               1




               2




               2
   -0



           r- 0




            -0




           r- 0




            -0
           n-




           n-
           g-




           c-




           g-




           c-
          b-




          b-




          b-
   c




          ct




          ct
        Ap




        Ap
        Ju




        Ju
De




        De




        De
        Au




        Au
        Fe




        Fe




        Fe
        O




        O
Monthly Job Openings, Hires, and Separations Rates
             (not seasonally adjusted)
  5.0


  4.5
          Hires Rate                                 Separations Rate
  4.0


  3.5


  3.0


  2.5


  2.0
                                                              Job Openings Rate
  1.5


  1.0


  0.5


  0.0
  Ju 0 1




  Ju 2
  A 01




  A 02
  A 1




  D 01




  A 2




  D 02




            3
  F 01




   Ju 1




  F e 02




   Ju 2




  F 03
  Ja 0



  M 1




  S 01

  O 1




  Ja 1



  M 2




  S 02

  O 2




  Ja 2



  M 3
  M 01




  N 1




  M 02




  N 2
         -0
        -0




        -0




        -0
        -0




        -0




        -0




        -0




        -0
          0




          0
       -0




         0




       -0
        -0




        -0
         -


       l-




       l-
        -




        -
      n-




      n-




      n-




      n-




      n-
        -




        -
        -




        -
     b-
    ay




    ay
    ov




    ov
     ar




     ar




     ar
    ec
    ec




    ec
    ug

    ep




    ug

    ep
     ct




     ct
    pr




    pr
    eb




    eb
  D




    Source: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey

								
To top