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Financial Modeling Tips and Techniques for Technology, Software, and Internet Startups

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Financial Modeling Tips and Techniques for Technology, Software, and Internet Startups Powered By Docstoc
					COPYRIGHT 2007-2009 VENTUREARCHETYPES, LLC Nathan@venturearchetypes.com www.venturearchetypes.com 415-370-5060

Financial Modeling for Startups
Plug & Play Tech Center VentureArchetypes, LLC September 24, 2008

We build great startups.™

Why bother?

COPYRIGHT 2007-2009 VENTUREARCHETYPES, LLC Nathan@venturearchetypes.com www.venturearchetypes.com 415-370-5060

A good financial model is an operating plan and roadmap for your business…sales targets, hiring plan, marketing, etc. A financial model is a framework for thinking through key assumptions regarding growth rates, pricing, costs, etc. A good financial model is a mark of credibility and can help convince investors of the overall potential of your opportunity A well thought out financial model gives you an idea of how much money you need to raise and when, as well as overall ROI.

We build great startups.™

…But don’t take my word for it.

COPYRIGHT 2007-2009 VENTUREARCHETYPES, LLC Nathan@venturearchetypes.com www.venturearchetypes.com 415-370-5060

“I look at financials because they are a credibility test for the entrepreneur … A good entrepreneur understands both the technical and business opportunities and how to flesh out the numbers behind it” - Russel Siegelman, Kleiner Perkins Caufiled & Byers “I look at financials to see if they make sense. I actually look at them more for mistakes. If someone thinks they will have 40% after-tax margin after 5 years, they clearly do not understand the cost of running a business” - Sonja Hoel, Managing Director, Menlo Ventures “The financial model discussion is more often a good insight into how smart a team is.” - Fred Wang, Trinity Ventures

We build great startups.™

Philosophy of Modeling:Top 10 To-Do’s
1. Build it bottoms-up 2. Detail your assumptions 3. Make it easy to change 4. Build it to scale (+/-) 5. Use benchmarks & comps 6. Focus on headcount 7. Emphasize first two years 8. “Over-scenario-lize” 9. Apply multiple sanity checks 10. Cash flow is king + Never run out of cash!

COPYRIGHT 2007-2009 VENTUREARCHETYPES, LLC Nathan@venturearchetypes.com www.venturearchetypes.com 415-370-5060

We build great startups.™

COPYRIGHT 2007-2009 VENTUREARCHETYPES, LLC Nathan@venturearchetypes.com www.venturearchetypes.com 415-370-5060

What Type of Company Are You?
Very briefly, around the room…
Who are you? What type of business? What are you looking to do? --

We build great startups.™

Getting Started: Revenue Build-Up

COPYRIGHT 2007-2009 VENTUREARCHETYPES, LLC Nathan@venturearchetypes.com www.venturearchetypes.com 415-370-5060

Approach #1: Sales Targets by channel, vertical, or geography
New customer wins X ASP or per-seat license Build in revenue lines for upsells, ancillary revenue, maintenance, etc.

Approach #2: Salesperson Ramp Approach #3: Existing Pipeline

Build a realistic hiring plan and establish per-rep quotas

Take historical or pending sales and grow by reasonable % over time

Approach #4: User Growth & Take Rate (Web/SNW/SaaS)
Build a realistic user adoption curve and % that “buy”

Approach #5: Percent of Total Market
“Top down” approach (not recommended)

We build great startups.™

Approach #4: Web, SNW, & SaaS
Paid search marketing, PR, advertising, etc. Grassroots & guerilla marketing Viral mechanisms/metrics if appropriate

COPYRIGHT 2007-2009 VENTUREARCHETYPES, LLC Nathan@venturearchetypes.com www.venturearchetypes.com 415-370-5060

Step 1: Forecast channels that bring in traffic

Step 2: Form reasonable conversion assumptions

What percent of raw visitors become members, subscribers, purchasers, active contributors? Think: acquisition activation engagement + virality or WOM

Step 3: Apply your relevant monetization model (s)
CPM/CPC/CPA text & banner ads; Video & audio ads; “Freemium” (free version + premium version upsell) Subscription fees, custom services Affiliate revenue, lead-gen revenue, licensing Sponsorships & paid inclusion

Auctions, ecommerce, widgets, souvenirs…etc etc etc…

We build great startups.™

Notes

COPYRIGHT 2007-2009 VENTUREARCHETYPES, LLC Nathan@venturearchetypes.com www.venturearchetypes.com 415-370-5060

Notes for all approaches
Focus on sales / adoption cycle and how customers actually buy A good model captures realistic customer behavior, not “idealized” Track & study key “success metrics”– visits per month, page views per visit, abandonment rates & triggers Use analogous firms to benchmark growth rates, CPMs, margins Don’t forget churn– not all customers stick around or re-up!

We build great startups.™

Forecasting Expenses
1. Match your COGS (Per-unit variable expenses)

COPYRIGHT 2007-2009 VENTUREARCHETYPES, LLC Nathan@venturearchetypes.com www.venturearchetypes.com 415-370-5060

Product firms: materials, labor, raw inputs, customer support Software/Internet firms: bandwidth, hosting, licensing fees, etc.

2. Build your hiring plan (Who, when, how much per head)
R&D, COS/ Support, Sales & Marketing, G&A + benefits

**See SKM Worksheet: “Hiring Plan Hat Check”

3. Build your marketing & sales budgets

SEO/PPC, PR, events, trade shows, mailers, sponsorships, etc. Commissions, referral fees, spiffs, etc.

4. Add-in other OpEx and CapEx

Legal/IP, rent, HR, outsourced/offshore work Computer hardware, travel, “miscellaneous”

Tip: What can be driven off / linked to revenue?
We build great startups.™

Roll It Up & Analyze
Summarize:

COPYRIGHT 2007-2009 VENTUREARCHETYPES, LLC Nathan@venturearchetypes.com www.venturearchetypes.com 415-370-5060

1. Roll monthly into quarterly, quarterly into annual 2. Combine revenue lines and expenses into summary categories 3. Adjust net income to get cash flow
• CapEx, Depreciation and Amortization

Analyze:

Tie it all together + Sanity Check

Parse into per-user, per unit, per-customer metrics Parse into common-size, and benchmark margins vs. peers
We build great startups.™

(Does it “look right?”) Focus on growth rates, margins, headcount

Adjusting Forecasts for the Real World

COPYRIGHT 2007-2009 VENTUREARCHETYPES, LLC Nathan@venturearchetypes.com www.venturearchetypes.com 415-370-5060

Cash Flow Effects Expenses Arrive On Time or Early Minimize Spending In Advance of Revenue Revenue Can Be Hard to Pin Down Cash Even Harder Booking vs. Billing vs. Collection Returns & Allowance for Bad Credit “Sales Learning Curve” Do You Have a Reliable Scalable Model What Does it Look Like for a New Sales Rep?

We build great startups.™

Pitching the numbers

COPYRIGHT 2007-2009 VENTUREARCHETYPES, LLC Nathan@venturearchetypes.com www.venturearchetypes.com 415-370-5060

(but have the model handy to refer to during Q&A)

Build a killer summary slide

+
(prepare for likely questions in advance + have cheat sheet handy)

Know your model, own your model

Show how you use their $$ to make them money
(detailed budget + “what’s in it for them?”)

+ =

“Instant Credibility” for raising capital and maintaining negotiating leverage

We build great startups.™

Questions? Contact Us

COPYRIGHT 2007-2009 VENTUREARCHETYPES, LLC Nathan@venturearchetypes.com www.venturearchetypes.com 415-370-5060

www.venturearchetypes.com Nathan@venturearchetypes.com
P: 415-370-5060

We build great startups.™


				
DOCUMENT INFO
Description: Financial model how-to, instructions, tips and best practices for technology and Internet startups Developed and presented by Nathan Beckord CFA at a workshop at Plug and Play Tech Center in Silicon Valley.