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					THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF MIGRANT
WORKERS IN THE WEST MIDLANDS
(REF NO. 889)



Interim Report from the Desk-based Study



May 2007


Anne E. Green, Paul Jones and David Owen

CONTACT
IER
University of Warwick
Coventry CV4 7AL
Tel: 024 765 24113
Fax: 024 765 24241
E-mail: Anne.Green@warwick.ac.uk
                                     Migrant Workers in the West Midlands – Desk-based Study




Published by:

West Midlands Regional Observatory
Level L1
Millennium Point
Curzon Street
Birmingham
B4 7XG

Tel: 0121 202 3250
Email: enquiries@wmro.org
Web: www.wmro.org




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                                    Migrant Workers in the West Midlands – Desk-based Study



Contents
                                                                                     Page


Foreword                                                                                iii

Summary                                                                                 iv


PART 1 – REVIEW                                                                         1

1.1   Migration Policy Context                                                          1
1.2   Drivers of Migration                                                              3
1.3   Definitional Issues and Data Sources                                              3
1.4   Numbers and Profile of Migrants                                                   6
1.5   Migrant Motivations, Intentions and Experiences                                   8
1.6   Employer Perspectives                                                            10
1.7   Labour Market Impacts                                                            12


PART 2 – PROFILE OF MIGRANTS IN THE WEST MIDLANDS                                      14

2.1   NINo Registrations of Overseas Nationals                                         14
2.2   A8 Migration to the West Midlands                                                27
2.3   Work Permits – the West Midlands Picture                                         36
2.4   Other Schemes: Sector Based Schemes and the Seasonal Agricultural
      Workers Scheme                                                                   42


PART 3 – MIGRANT EMPLOYMENT AND ITS IMPACTS IN THE WEST
         MIDLANDS LABOUR MARKET                                                        43

3.1   Data and Methods                                                                 43
3.2   Patterns of Migrant Employment                                                   45
3.3   Employment Impacts of Economic Migration                                         51
3.4   Unemployment of UK Nationals                                                     56
3.5   Trends in Vacancies                                                              65
3.6   Impact of Economic Migration on Earnings                                         70
3.7   Contribution of Migrant Workers to the West Midlands Economy                     73


References                                                                             77




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                                        Migrant Workers in the West Midlands – Desk-based Study



Foreword

This Interim Report from the Desk-based Study is part of a larger project on Migrant Workers
in the West Midlands. The primary purpose of the Desk-based Study is to inform the design
and delivery of primary data collection elements of the larger projects. These primary data
collection elements comprise:
• an Employer Survey – to investigate employers’ rationale for and experience of
     employing migrant workers
• a qualitative study of Third Parties and Networks involved in supporting employers who
     employ migrants or in supporting migrants themselves
• a quantitative study of Migrant Workers – to provide information on the characteristics of
     migrant workers, their labour market experience and future intentions
• a qualitative study of Migrant Workers – providing deeper and more detailed information
     on migrant experiences and intentions via a series of mini groups
These primary data collection elements of the project are taking place over the period from
April to July 2007. Information from all elements of the research will be drawn together in a
Final Project Report to be drafted in August 2007 and finalised in September 2007. It is
anticipated that some of the material from this report will be incorporated in the final Project
Report.


Report structure

This Interim Report from the Desk-based Study is divided into three Parts:
•   Part 1:    Review
               – presenting selected findings from a review of the literature.
•   Part 2:    Profile of Migrants in the West Midlands
               - drawing on a review of the key administrative data sources on migration (i.e.
               National Insurance Number Registrations [NINos], the Worker Registration
               Scheme [WRS] relating to migrants from the ‘Accession 8’ countries in
               eastern and central Europe, and Work Permits).
•   Part 3:    Migrant Employment and its Labour Market and Economic Impacts in the
               West Midlands
               - presenting an analysis of Labour Force Survey data by industry and
               occupation and the impacts of migration on unemployment, vacancies,
               earnings and GVA.

Since the Desk-based Study may be considered as the foundation for the project,
Conclusions are not presented at this stage. However, as noted above, the material
presented here will be drawn upon alongside survey findings in the concluding section of the
Final Report for the project.




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                                       Migrant Workers in the West Midlands – Desk-based Study



Summary

1. Review

Migration policy context
   In recent years immigration has been running at historically high levels and the UK has
   gained population at an increasing rate due to net immigration.
   It is important to consider ‘migrant workers’ in a broader context of migration flows for
   family reasons and for asylum and other purposes.
   The volume and nature of migration is shaped by the legislative and policy framework at
   UK (and EU) level.
   The volume and nature of managed migration is shaped by the legislative framework at
   UK level, which has changed and continues to change over time.
   Migration policy and associated migration schemes are subject to review and change. In
   2007 a points-based management strategy for managing labour migration is due to
   become operational.
   Migrants enter the UK by a number of different routes, which vary in importance over
   time.

Drivers of migration
    The size and direction of migration flows are determined by the interplay of economic,
    demographic and political trends in the UK and in other potential migrant destination
    countries and in origin countries.
    Economic ‘pull’ factors include higher wages and job opportunities, while ‘push’ factors
    include a lack of life chances, lower wages and living standards and a lack of available
    opportunities to utilise skills in the home country.

Definitional issues and data sources
   A number of different definitions of ‘migrant’/ ‘labour migrant’ are in common use.
   The focus of this study is on non-UK citizens who come to the UK for the purpose of
   employment (as far as we can ascertain) and who have a legal right to work in the UK.
   No single data source providing a comprehensive picture of the number of migrants;
   different data sources adopt different definitions, relate to different time periods and
   geographical areas.
   Official data sources identify migrants in two ways: (1) through surveys of residents (i.e.
   stocks) or (2) as they move (i.e. as flows).
   Key survey sources for examining migration include the Census of Population and the
   Labour Force Survey (LFS)/ Annual Population Survey (APS). Key administrative
   sources include National Insurance Number (NINo) registrations, the Worker
   Registration Scheme (WRS) and Work Permits.
   There is a lack of information on migrants leaving the UK.
   There are doubts about the comprehensiveness of local surveys because there is no
   comprehensive sampling frame from which to draw a sample of migrant workers, and the
   information gathered may date quickly.
   The shifting nature and composition of the migrant population and uncertainty about
   length of stay (especially given the lack of information on individuals leaving the UK),
   coupled with factors relating to the scope, incompleteness and time lag between
   collection and publication of statistics, renders estimation of the size of the migrant
   population in any local area very difficult, if not impossible.

Numbers and profile of migrants
  Data on NINo registrations for overseas nationals shows a marked increase in recent
  years: in 2005/6 there were over 660 thousand NINo registrations by overseas nationals
  in the UK (up from around 350 thousand in 2002/3). In the West Midlands the number of



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                                       Migrant Workers in the West Midlands – Desk-based Study


   NINo registrations by overseas nationals rose from 23.4 thousand (7% of the UK total) in
   2002/3 to 41.7 thousand in 2005/6 (6% of the UK total).
   There have been important changes in the profile of migrant workers by nationality in
   recent years. At UK level Poland has become easily the largest supplier in the last two
   years, with other A8 countries such as Lithuania, Slovakia and Latvia also increasing in
   importance. India is the largest supplier of migrants on Work Permits.
   Migrants are predominantly young – typically under 35 years of age.
   Migrant workers are unevenly distributed by industry and by occupation. Although there
   are concentrations of migrants at both end of the occupational spectrum, there is some
   evidence of an increasing concentration of migrants in less skilled occupations.
   A consistent finding from previous research is that migrants tend to be work in jobs
   where they do not fully utilise their skills.
   New migrants from A8 countries tend too be highly qualified but lacking English
   language skills.
   Foreign nationals (from all national groups) are much more likely to come to London to
   live and work than UK citizens. Almost two-thirds of foreign workers are in south-eastern
   England.
   There has been a relative shift in the spatial distribution of labour migrants towards more
   rural areas, especially from 2004 onwards.
   While some migrants might live and work locally, for others local authority district of
   residence and of work may not coincide. Hence, residence-based and workplace-based
   analyses may reveal different numbers and profiles of migrants.

Migrant motivations, intentions and experiences in the labour market
   Despite the heterogeneity of migrants’ experiences in the labour market, a number of
   common themes emerge from the literature.
   Financial motivations are important, but are not the sole reason for migration.
   There is a lack of knowledge about length of stay in the UK and the extent to which initial
   intentions accord with the reality of experience.
   Short-term migrants are likely to have different attitudes to learning and skills
   development than those who intend to stay for a longer period.
   Ability to speak English consistently emerges as being of particular importance for
   integration and for advancement in the labour market.
   Migrants are frustrated by their lack of knowledge and a lack of information on how to
   transfer their skills to the UK context.

Employer perspectives
  There are two main reasons why employers recruit migrant labour: (1) to perform jobs
  requiring specialist skills not available in the UK (i.e. to address skills shortages and
  deficiencies); and (2) to fill vacancies for which there are not enough UK applicants.
  Employer attitudes towards migrant workers vary: some employ migrants reluctantly,
  while others are advocates of employing migrants, but most adopt a pragmatic view,
  For many employers the main advantage of hiring migrant workers is that they were
  perceived as having a stronger and more positive work attitude and ethic than UK-born
  workers.
  Employment agencies are an important recruitment channel for migrants – at least in the
  first instance.
  Employer surveys reveal that the main advantage of employing migrant workers is that
  they are perceived as having a stronger and more positive work ethic than UK-born
  workers: first and foremost it is an ‘attitude gap’ rather than a ‘skills gap’ that employers
  see migrants as filling.

Labour market impacts
   The economic and labour market impacts of international migrants are prominent issues
   in political and popular debate.


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                                       Migrant Workers in the West Midlands – Desk-based Study


   From the perspective of UK indigenous workers, the recruitment by employers of migrant
   workers could have a number of negative effects, including: (1) a reduction in
   employment rates amongst other groups in the labour market as employers use migrants
   to replace British workers (i.e. a displacement effect); (2) an increase in the
   unemployment rate; (3) reductions in vacancies; (4) suppression of wage levels.
   The overall conclusion of previous analyses is that in aggregate the impact of migration
   from A8 countries has been modest, but broadly positive. Evidence seems to suggest
   that migrants tend to go where labour demand is buoyant and so are taking up the slack
   in the labour market and growing the economy. On balance, studies suggest that
   migration is beneficial to the economy in addressing labour shortages and skills
   deficiencies and having a positive effect on output.
   Local areas vary in their exposure to and experience of migrant workers.

2. Profile of Migrants in the West Midlands

NINo registrations of overseas nationals
   NINo registrations of overseas nationals provide the best single indicator of the
   increment to the workforce from migration.
   The number of NINo registrations of overseas national was 78% higher in 2005/6 than in
   2002/3.
   There has been a marked change in the geographical origins of overseas nationals NINo
   registrations in recent years. In 2002/3 New Commonwealth countries dominated,
   accounting for 45% of such registrations, whereas in 2005/6 Accession 8 countries
   dominated with 48% of all registrations – up from 2% in 2002/3.
   In 2002/3 India, Pakistan, the Philippines and countries of refugee flows (e.g. Iraq and
   Afghanistan) were dominant, but Poland and other eastern European countries overtook
   them in 2004/5. In 2005/6 there were three times more Polish registrants than for the
   next largest country of origin (India).
   In 2005/6 Polish people were the largest single group of registrants in all but one district
   in the West Midlands. There were local variations in the identity of the second and third
   largest groups.
   The increase in NINo registrations of overseas nationals has been locally uneven over
   the period from 2002/3 to 2005/6, with particular local increases in Herefordshire and
   other rural areas, adding to the urban concentrations already apparent in 2002/3.
   The local impact of NINo registrations by overseas nationals was highest in
   Herefordshire and Coventry, and least in areas such as Cannock Chase, Bridgnorth and
   South Staffordshire.
   In recent years there has been a decline in the proportion of overseas nationals NINo
   registrants claiming benefits. Generally, the proportion of claimants in highest in large
   urban areas and lowest in rural areas.

A8 migration to the West Midlands
   Over 41 thousand people from A8 countries were granted initial approvals under the
   Worker Registration Scheme in the West Midlands from May 2004 (i.e. the date of
   accession) until the end of December 2006.
   Two-thirds of WRS approvals were Poles. The next largest nationalities were Slovakians,
   Lithuanians and Latvians. Poles are especially dominant in urban areas. Lithuanians
   and Latvians are relatively more concentrated in rural than in urban areas.
   Just under two-fifths of WRS applicants were female.
   WRS applicants are overwhelmingly young people: more than 80% were aged 18-34
   years, with 45% aged 18 to 24 years.
   The most important local destinations in volume terms for WRS applicants were
   Herefordshire, Birmingham, Coventry and Stratford-upon-Avon.




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                                     Migrant Workers in the West Midlands – Desk-based Study


   Two-fifths of all WRS registrations are in administration, business and management
   services (a category including employment agencies). The next largest industrial
   categories are agricultural services, hospitality and catering, manufacturing, meat
   processing and other food processing (separately identified under Sector Based
   Schemes), transport, health and medical services and construction.
   Occupational analysis highlights the predominance of less skilled occupations for A8
   migrants, with process operative (other factory work) farm workers and farm hands,
   warehouse operatives and packers emerging as the largest single occupations.

Work Permits: the West Midlands picture
  Overall, nearly 19.5 thousand people were granted work permits in the West Midlands
  between 2002 and 2006.
  The most common geographical origins for people on work permits are India, the
  Philippines, China, South Africa and Zimbabwe.
  Work permit holders from the New Commonwealth are particularly concentrated in the
  most urban parts of the region.
  Work permit holders are concentrated in health & medicine, hospitality & catering and
  administration, business & management services sectors.
  The most important occupations for work permit holders are nurses, chefs and other
  healthcare related occupations.
  Migrants on work permits make an important contribution to the health sector in the
  region.

Other Schemes: Sector Based Schemes and Seasonal Agricultural Workers Scheme
   These schemes have been subject to review following expansion of the EU. Quotas
   have been reduced and there is an increasing focus on migrants from Bulgaria and
   Romania.
   In the UK there were just over 16 thousand workers in the UK under the Seasonal
   Agricultural Workers Scheme (SAWS) in 2006; (it is not known how many of these were
   in the West Midlands).

3. Migrant Employment and its Labour Market and Economic Impacts in the West
   Midlands

Data and methods
   For the purposes of analyses of migrant employment ‘migrant workers’ defined as non-
   UK nationals in employment. A further disaggregation by year of entry to the UK is used
   for some analyses.
   A series of analyses are presented based on a merged Labour Force Survey (LFS) data
   set for the period 2001-2006; (consecutive data sets are merged to increase the size of
   the sample available for analysis).

Patterns of migrant employment
   According to the LFS there were around 122 thousand migrant workers in the West
   Midlands in summer 2006. Just under half (around 54 thousand) had entered the UK
   during or after 2002.
   For purposes of analyses ‘migrant dense’ (MD) areas of work are defined as industries
   or occupations where migrant workers have a greater propensity to be employed than
   their UK-national counterparts.
   Migrant dense industries in the West Midlands include Manufacturing (especially Food &
   Beverage Manufacture); Hotels & Restaurants; Transport, Storage and Communication
   and Health & Social Work. These sectors account for around two-thirds of post-2002
   migrant employment compared with a third of employment of UK-nationals.




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                                       Migrant Workers in the West Midlands – Desk-based Study


   The main migrant dense occupations in the West Midlands are Health Professionals;
   Health Associate Professionals; Healthcare, Related Personal Services; Assemblers and
   Routine Operatives; Process Operatives and Elementary Cleaning Occupations.
   Recent migrants are particularly concentrated in lower skilled Operative and Elementary
   Occupations (SOC Major Groups 8 and 9).

Employment impacts of economic migration
  A series of analyses were undertaken to examine whether, and the extent to which,
  employment of migrants in certain sectors and occupations has been associated with a
  lower probability of employment for UK nationals.
  While migrant employment has expanded in migrant dense sectors and migrant dense
  occupations, there has been a decline in employment of UK nationals in these sectors
  and occupations. Declining employment of UK nationals is particularly pronounced in
  less skilled occupations (SOC Major Groups 8 and 9).
  A key question is whether this apparent displacement of UK nationals is a voluntary or
  involuntary process.

Unemployment of UK nationals
   If displacement of UK nationals from migrant dense sectors and occupations is
   involuntary we would expect this to be manifest via increased unemployment of UK
   nationals.
   Between 2005 and 2006 there was an increase in the ILO unemployment rate in the
   West Midlands. The upward trend was particularly pronounced for those with no
   qualifications.
   There is evidence that a disproportionately large number of unemployed UK nationals
   come from migrant dense industries and migrant dense occupations – especially lower
   skilled occupations. However, temporal analysis suggests that these higher rates of
   employment turnover (i.e. greater churning through unemployment) are not associated
   with increased migrant employment. This suggests that displacement is voluntary rather
   than involuntary. Analysis of transition data supports this conclusion.
   Analyses of the relationship between the impact of migrants on the labour market at local
   area level and the claimant count reveal no significant correlation.

Trends in vacancies
   Analyses were undertaken to investigate whether any association is discernible between
   changes in vacancies and in numbers of migrants.
   There is evidence for a decrease in vacancies in low skilled occupations reported to
   Jobcentre Plus over the period from 2005 to 2007, but there is no statistically significant
   association between trends in vacancies and NINo registrations of overseas nationals.
   Analysis of data from the National Employer Skills Survey (NESS) shows that recorded
   vacancies are high in many migrant dense sectors.
   Overall, there is no clear statistical evidence for an association between increasing
   numbers of migrants and a decrease in vacancies in the West Midlands in recent years.

Impact of economic migration on earnings
   Trends in earnings of UK nationals in migrant dense industries and occupations were
   compared to trends in earnings of UK nationals in the economy as a whole in order to
   ascertain whether there is evidence for migrant labour market impacts via suppression of
   earnings.
   Evidence from the LFS shows a mixed picture across migrant dense sectors and
   occupations, but there is no evidence that growth in migrant employment is associated
   with lower rates of earnings growth.




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                                     Migrant Workers in the West Midlands – Desk-based Study


Contribution of migrant workers to the West Midlands economy
   Measures of employment and earnings of migrant workers in the West Midlands
   economy were combined with data on Gross Value Added (GVA) for the West Midlands
   in order to estimate the contribution of migrant workers to the regional economy.
   It is estimated that migrants account for 5% of regional output. As such, migrants make
   an important contribution to the West Midlands economy.




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                                           Migrant Workers in the West Midlands – Desk-based Study



PART 1 – REVIEW
This part of the report presents a selective review of recent academic and policy literature of
migration to identify contextual information of relevance to the key research questions to be
addressed by this project.

1.1      Migration Policy Context

1.1.1    Introduction

In recent years immigration has been running at historically high levels and the UK has
gained population at an increasing rate due to net immigration. The volume of migration
increased steadily during the 1990s and from the mid 1990s asylum flows became a major
component of immigration, peaking in the early years of the 21st century. From 2004
onwards the focus of popular and strategic policy attention has shifted towards flows of
labour migrants from EU member states in central and eastern Europe. While economic
migration dominates the current migration flows, migration for family reasons continues to be
an important source of new migration and the New Commonwealth remains an important
source for migration flows (Green et al., 2005). Hence, it is important to consider ‘migrant
workers’ within this broader context of migrant flows.

1.1.2    Overview of the policy context

The volume and nature of migration is shaped by the legislative framework at UK (and EU)
level. Hence, in any consideration of the role of migrants in the labour market the legislative
and policy framework is of key importance.

The UK government embraces the principle of ‘managed migration’, with migration being
viewed as a solution for replacing workers who are retiring and who are not being replaced
at the younger end of the workforce due to falling birth rates (Stanfield et al., 2004). 1 It
makes explicit recognition of the potential role for migration to address labour market
deficiencies, especially in key professions and some unskilled jobs. The number of work
permits (issued fro a specific individual to do a specific job at a specific location) 2 issued has
increased enormously since 1997, as non-EEA (European Economic Area) workers have
been recruited to fill job vacancies and skill shortages in the IT, hotels and catering and
health and social care industries. Much of the increase in NHS staff has been achieved
through overseas recruiting, 3 but this is likely to decline due to the increased number of
medical and nursing trainees entering employment and concerns over the effect upon
developing countries of recruiting trained staff from them. Hence, the volume and nature of
managed migration is shaped by the legislative framework at UK level, which has changed
and continues to change over time.

Migration policy is subject to review and in 2007 a points-based management strategy for
managing labour migration is due to become operational; (this is likely to have an impact on
the volume and nature of future migration flows). Five categories will be used for judging the
status of applications to live and work in the UK:
• Tier 1: highly skilled individuals
1
      Immigration is concentrated amongst young adults, which is boosting the UK’s student population
      and workforce. It also adds to the UK-resident pool of workers in higher-level occupations.
2
      The work permit scheme is employer driven, and with some exceptions, the employer must show
      that the vacancy was advertised widely and there were no suitable resident workers to fill the
      vacancy.
3
      The Philippines, India, South Africa, Australia and Nigeria were the most important sources of
      nursing staff (analysis by the Nursing and Midwifery Council, 2004).


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                                           Migrant Workers in the West Midlands – Desk-based Study


• Tier 2: skilled worker with a specific job offer to fill gaps in the UK labour force
• Tier 3: limited numbers of lower skilled workers needed to fill specific temporary labour
   shortages
• Tier 4: students
• Tier 5: people allowed to work in the UK for a limited period of time to satisfy primarily
   non-economic objectives
The points-based system has been designed to meet criteria of objectivity, transparency,
operability, usability, flexibility, robustness and cost-effectiveness. It will replace an existing
system that has been branded by the government as complex, unclear, bureaucratic,
inefficient and having scope for subjective, inconsistent and incorrect decisions (Salt, 2006).

1.1.3   Migration routes

Migrants enter the UK by a number of different routes, which vary in importance over time.
From a labour market perspective, different migration routes are important in feeding
different industries and occupations.

Free movement rights mean that citizens of the EU15 (i.e. the first fifteen European Union
member states) and other EEA countries do not need permission to work in the UK. No
comprehensive statistics are collected upon their entry to the UK.

With EU expansion to central and eastern Europe in May 2004, the UK put in place
transitional measures to regulate access to the labour market by nationals of the ‘A8’
countries via the Worker Registration Scheme (WRS). The expansion of the EU in 2004, and
the fact that the UK was one of only three member states (alongside Sweden and Ireland)
that chose not to impose restrictions on so-called ‘Accession 8’ (A8) migrants from the new
central and eastern European Accession countries, has led to much greater than expected
numbers of migrants from ‘new’ EU member states in central and eastern Europe coming to
the UK since 2004. Indeed, the scale of recent immigration is such that Poles have been
identified as the largest ever single national group of entrants that the British Isles has ever
experienced (Salt and Millar, 2006). With the accession of Romania and Bulgaria to the EU
in January 2007, additional restrictions were placed on migrants from these ‘Accession 2’
(A2) states.

There are a number of managed migration routes for migrants from elsewhere. These
include the Work Permit system (for non EEA migrants filling specific vacancies), the Highly
Skilled Migrant Programme and a number of special schemes focusing on specific sectors at
the lower end of the labour market where posts were difficult to fill in the UK. In 2005 the
Home Secretary announced that the Government intended to phase out all low-skilled
immigration routes, although subsequently it was agreed that Sector Based Schemes (SBS)
would be retained for Bulgarian and Romanian nationals. Likewise, the Seasonal Agricultural
Workers Scheme (SAWS), which has existed since the late 1940s to provide cheap
seasonal labour (in the form of foreign students) for farmers, will move towards exclusively
recruiting Bulgarian and Romanian nationals from 2008.

As noted above, asylum flows became a major component of immigration during the 1990s
(in part because controls on labour migration remained strict, but also driven by the number
of civil conflicts). Some are asylum seekers and subsequently gain refugee status. 4 In the
last few years, the number of asylum seekers has fallen considerably, reflecting the end of
the Balkans wars, but also the increased number of routes made available for labour
migration.



4
    Note that this group can form an important part of the workforce in some local areas.


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                                            Migrant Workers in the West Midlands – Desk-based Study


Students (often working in agriculture) and working holiday makers represent further
important sources of migrant labour.

Some migrants enter the UK illegally, and others enter legally but work illegally. No particular
attempts are made in this project to ascertain the size of, or gather information specifically
on illegal migrants. Likewise, trafficking for purposes of labour exploitation is not specifically
covered, although it is noted that recent research has shown that typically victims are found
in industries requiring large numbers of low-paid, flexible, seasonal workers (Dowling et al.,
2007).


1.2       Drivers of Migration

The size and direction of migration flows are determined by the interplay of economic,
demographic and political trends in the UK and in other potential migrant destination
countries and in origin countries (Stenning et al., 2006).

A review of the literature suggests that key economic ‘push’ factors from origin countries
include a lack of life chances, lower wages and living standards and a lack of available
opportunities to utilise skills in the home country (often as a consequence of high
unemployment). Key economic ‘pull’ factors include higher wages 5 and job opportunities
(LSC, 2007). However, alongside these broader quality of life and life chances factors are
important, including a desire for a better quality of life for themselves and their families,
career development opportunities and a desire for travel and adventure. Once a migration
flow has been established, the momentum created can be an important driver of subsequent
migration flows.

A recent study by the Audit Commission (2007) suggests that the availability of jobs is the
main ‘pull’ factor, but at a local level it is important to note that similar jobs can bring varying
patterns of settlement and different pressures on local areas because of the availability of
housing, transport and other service and infrastructural factors.


1.3       Definitional Issues and Data Sources

1.3.1     Definitions

There are no universally agreed definitions of ‘migration’ and ‘migrant’; rather there are a
number of different definitions of ‘migrant’/ ‘labour migrant’ in common use. The terms are
used in different ways by different data sources and in the academic and policy literature and
in different local studies. In practice the definition of international migrants varies according
to data set used. Differences in migrant definitions mean that data sources may have
different numbers of migrants for the same time period.

Here the focus is on non-UK citizens who come to the UK for the purpose of employment (as
far as we can ascertain 6 and who have a legal right to work in the UK. 7 ‘Country of birth’ has
been used in previous studies analysing the distribution and profile of migrants in the UK


5
      Relative wage differentials between origin and competing destination countries may also be
      important here – particularly as other countries (such as Germany) lift current restrictions on
      migration flows.
6
      Note that key household surveys (such as the Labour Force Survey and the Census of
      Population) do not collect information on the reason for migration.
7
      Other studies may include those with legal rights and those without such rights to work in the UK.


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                                          Migrant Workers in the West Midlands – Desk-based Study


(e.g. Kyambi, 2005; Green et al., 2007) (it is salient to note that some UK nationals are born
abroad, while some people born in the UK are foreign nationals).

1.3.2   Key data sources and their strengths and weaknesses

There is a paucity of up-to-date information on the numbers and characteristics of migrant
workers at national, regional and local levels, with no single data source providing a
comprehensive picture (Rees and Boden, 2006). Rather only broad estimates are possible –
especially at regional and sub-regional levels. Different data sources adopt different
definitions, relate to different time periods and geographical areas, 8 have different detail in
terms of disaggregations (e.g. by industry, occupation, etc) and have different strengths and
limitations.

Official statistics identify migrants in two ways: through surveys of residents (i.e. stocks) or
through direct surveys of people as they move (i.e. flows). The two most important surveys
of residents in the UK are the decennial Census of Population and the Labour Force Survey
(LFS)/ Annual Population Survey (APS).
      The Census of Population collects information on country of birth and location one year
      before the Census. Within the latter, it is possible to identify residents who were outside
      the UK one year before the Census. The Census provides information at a local level
      but since data is collected decennially, it cannot provide a regularly updated picture.
      The LFS/ APS collect the country of birth and nationality of respondents and also have
      information concerning when (i.e. the year) a person entered the UK. It is the only
      source of data on the nationality of the foreign population and workforce in the UK, but
      the relatively small size of the sample means that detailed disaggregation by nationality
      and migrant characteristics is not possible and that even aggregate data may not be
      robust in small areas. Annual fluctuations may reflect sampling errors.
The Census and LFS/ APS focus on residents and so provide no information on persons
leaving the UK. This is a key gap in the information base and hence it is not possible to
provide a detailed picture of international migrant out-flows from the region. Moreover, it
should be borne in mind that surveys tend to be poorer at capturing mobile populations, 9 and
hence short-term migration may be under-estimated. This is an important issue given that
most migrants come to the UK for a short period of time only (LSC, 2007) and that there is a
tendency has been a tendency towards shorter-term moves, with a declining proportion of
Work Permits issued for periods of 12 months or more. Three quarters of WRS applicants in
2006 answered a question on their registration form about migrant intentions. 55% indicated
that they intended to stay for three months or less, 25% did not know how long their stay
would be and 10% indicated that they intended to stay for more than two years (Home
Office, DWP, HM Revenue & Customs, CLG, 2007).

Analysis of administrative data sources has been the prime method through which very
recent migration has been measured. These data sets, administered by Work Permits (UK),
hold information on the nationality of individuals and their date of registration, but not date of
entry to the UK. The most commonly used (and of greatest relevance for current purposes)
are:


8
    It has been noted that “At all geographical levels, conceptual and definitional issues between
    datasets and the sheer complexity of the migration process hamper the derivation of statistics to
    measure the impact of new migrants” (Rees P. and Boden P. [2006] op cit.). Often small sample
    sizes may mean that less detailed information may be generated at regional than at national level
    in order to overcome statistical robustness/ confidentiality constraints.
9
    Sub-groups of the population characterised by relatively high mobility rates (e.g. young single
    males) and areas characterised by relatively high mobility rates (e.g. some inner city areas) tend
    to have relatively low response rates in surveys.


                                                  4
                                          Migrant Workers in the West Midlands – Desk-based Study


     registrations for National Insurance Numbers (NINos) – Every overseas national who is
     legally employed/ self-employed in the UK requires a NINo. Hence, NINo registration
     data cover all labour migrants (i.e. EU citizens – including those from Accession
     countries who are covered by the WRS), those on Work Permits and (including students
     working part-time), whatever their length of stay in the UK. Overseas nationals entering
     the UK apply to their local Jobcentre Plus office for a NINo. An interview date is arranged
     at the local office. The date of registration is the date when their NINo is registered on
     the system, following allocation. The NINo is often thought of as a proxy for when
     migrants become active in the labour market. 10 The key strength of the data is its wide
     coverage (i.e. a 100% sample held at case level).
     registrations on the Workers Registration Scheme (WRS) 11 – these apply to A8 nationals
     (from Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Slovenia, Latvia, Lithuania and
     Estonia) 12 who are employees; (the self-employed do not need to register). The WRS
     does not require workers to de-register, and so makes no allowance for people who
     registered but may have subsequently left. It does not record people who choose to
     work illegally.
     applications for Work Permits – applications are made by employers for non-EEA
     nationals. 13

These administrative data sources can provide information on trends over time on the
number of migrants in local areas (broken down in a limited way by crude ‘industry’ and
‘occupation’). However, they should be interpreted with caution, because they provide inflow
data only – length of stay in the UK/ departures from the UK are not recorded. Hence, the
number of applicants to the WRS does not represent a measurement of the migrant ‘stock’
(i.e. inflows minus outflows); rather the numbers reported are gross figures relating to the
number of workers applying to the WRS. The fact that deregistration is not required on
leaving the UK is a salient issue given the temporary nature of much migration from A8
countries.

To fill the information gaps in some areas local surveys have been undertaken, providing
information on the demographic characteristics, skills, learning needs and aspirations,
duration of stay, future intentions, etc, of migrant workers (e.g. Zaronaite and Tirzite, 2006).
However, there are doubts about the comprehensiveness of local surveys because there is
no comprehensive sampling frame from which to draw a sample of migrant workers, and the
information gathered may date quickly. The shifting nature and composition of the migrant
population and uncertainty about length of stay (especially given the lack of information on
individuals leaving the UK), coupled with factors relating to the scope, incompleteness and
time lag between collection and publication of statistics, renders estimation of the size of the
migrant population in any local area very difficult, if not impossible. As noted above, the lack
of information on out-migration flows is a salient issue here. Only very broad estimates at
regional and local level are likely to be possible, but even so they may be misleading.




10
     There may be a lag between arrival and applying for a NINo.
11
     A8 migrants register for work under the WRS. A limited amount of published Management
     Information is available – see quarterly Accession Monitoring Reports published by the Home
     Office, Department for Work and Pensions, HM Revenue and Customs and Department for
     Communities and Local Government. Data for use in this project has been obtained via Freedom
     of Information requests to Work Permits (UK).
12
     Note that data on A2 migrants from Bulgaria and Romania – which is collected using a different
     administrative system – is not available at the time of writing.
13
     EU and other EEA nationals are not included within the Work Permit scheme.


                                                 5
                                                                                    Migrant Workers in the West Midlands – Desk-based Study


1.3.3                                        Implications

Since there is no single source of data on migrant workers, in order to obtain as complete a
picture as possible it is necessary to make reference to a number of different sources.
However, there are severe problems in bringing these data sets together to produce a
composite picture of migration. The same individuals may appear in different data sets, and
(crucially – as outlined above) there is no information on individuals leaving the UK. It is
therefore difficult to know whether additional registrations represent additions to the stock of
migrants or new entrants replacing migrants who have left the UK, new entrants replacing
migrants who have left the UK or seasonal migrants who enter and leave the country
repeatedly. The lack of accurate numbers on what is inherently, and increasingly, a transient
group (as highlighted in section 1.3.2) makes it difficult for agencies to predict and plan for
change. It can make it difficult to explain change to existing residents and to refute local
rumours.


1.4                                          Numbers and Profile of Migrants

This section provides an overview of key features from a review of migration literature and
data sources, mainly focusing on the national level picture. More detailed data analyses
relating to the West Midlands are presented in Parts 2 and 3 of this report.

1.4.1                                        How many migrants?

Official estimates of the trend of international migration to and from the West Midlands from
1995 to 2004 are presented in Figure 1.1. Immigration increased more rapidly than
emigration over this period, and hence the net gain in regional population due to
international immigration increased from around 5 thousand people a year between 1995
and 1998 to nearly 25 thousand in 2004.

Figure 1.1: International migration into and out of the West Midlands, 1995-2004

                                      45.0                                                                                 +30.0



                                      40.0
                                                                                                                           +25.0

                                      35.0

                                                                                                                           +20.0
   Annual number of migrants (000s)




                                      30.0
                                                                                                                                   Net immigration (000s)




                                                                                                                           +15.0
                                      25.0                                                                                                                  In-migrants
                                                                                                                                                            Out-migrants

                                      20.0                                                                                                                  Balance
                                                                                                                           +10.0


                                      15.0
                                                                                                                           +5.0

                                      10.0

                                                                                                                           +0.0
                                       5.0



                                       0.0                                                                                 -5.0
                                         1994    1995   1996   1997   1998   1999    2000   2001   2002   2003   2004   2005



Source: ONS (2006) International Migration 2004.

Data on NINo registrations for overseas nationals – which provides perhaps the fullest
possible picture of the overall increment to the UK workforce by foreign nationals of any data
source – shows a marked increase in recent years: in 2005/6 there were over 660 thousand



                                                                                            6
                                       Migrant Workers in the West Midlands – Desk-based Study


NINo registrations by overseas nationals in the UK (up from around 350 thousand in
2002/3). In the West Midlands the number of NINo registrations by overseas nationals rose
from 23.4 thousand (7% of the UK total) to 28.1 thousand (6% of the UK total) in 2004/05 to
41.7 thousand (6% of the UK total); (further details are provided in Part 2).

According to analyses published by the Audit Commission (2007), foreign nationals made up
3.5% of the UK workforce in 1996 but 6% in 2006.

1.4.2   Nationality

Some data sources provide information only on some migrant groups (e.g. WRS on A8
migrants only). Analyses of a range of different data sources show that there have been
important changes in the profile of migrant workers by nationality in recent years. Analyses
of NINo registration data at UK level reveal that Poland has risen dramatically to become
easily the largest supplier in the last two years, with other A8 countries such as Lithuania,
Slovakia and Latvia also increasing in importance, while China and Portugal have dropped
down the rankings; (despite continuing to be important sources of labour migrants). Analyses
of Work Permit data by nationality reveals that by 2005 easily the largest national group was
Indian (accounting for a third of the total). Other nationalities notable for large increases
were Filipinos, South Africans and Chinese. (Analyses for the West Midlands are presented
in more detail in Part 2.)

1.4.3   Age

A consistent finding from national and local studies of migrants is that migrants are
predominantly young – typically, up to four-fifths of NINo registrants are under 35 years of
age (for examples of local studies highlighting the young age profile of migrants see
UHIPolicyWeb [2005] and Mercia Research and Strategy [2006]).

Many young migrants come for a defined period of time and have few dependants, so their
need for public services is low.

1.4.4   Industrial profile

Migrant workers are unevenly distributed by industry. They are found in sectors experiencing
employment growth and decline. A8 migrants are most commonly found in distribution,
hotels and catering, manufacturing and agriculture – but this varies between regions (Gilpin
et al., 2006; LSC, 2007).

1.4.5   Occupational profile

Occupationally, migrants are concentrated in certain professional occupations (notably as
health professionals and business & public service professionals) and also in elementary,
operative and caring personal service occupations. Given the changing importance of
different migration ‘routes’ – notably the impact of A8 migration - there is some evidence
away from a ‘bi-polar’ occupational distribution of migrants towards a greater share in less
skilled occupations (Gilpin et al., 2006). For example, analysis of LFS data for the East
Midlands reveals that post-2001 migrants are more likely to be working in low skilled
occupations than pre 1991 or 1992-2001 migrants and Worker Registration Scheme
information on A8 migrants showing a strong skew towards low skill occupations (Green et
al., 2007).




                                             7
                                        Migrant Workers in the West Midlands – Desk-based Study


1.4.6   Qualifications

A consistent finding from previous research is that many migrants tend to be working below
their skills levels; (for an example of such evidence from a local study see Schneider et al.
[2005]). Recent migrants from central and eastern Europe, in particular, are better qualified
than the indigenous population (for example see Zaronaite and Tirzite [2006]). As such they
may represent they represent ‘high quality workers’ in ‘low-waged work’ (Anderson et al.,
2006). New migrants from A8 countries tend too be highly qualified but lacking English
language skills (Sachdev and Harries, 2006).

The Government Consultation Paper Making Migration Work for Britain reports LFS analysis
showing that migrants (foreign born) are more likely to have higher qualifications (at 21%)
compared to 17% of the UK-born population. However, in analyses of qualifications it should
be borne in mind that at sub-degree level, in particular, there may be difficulties in mapping
non-degree qualifications into the UK system.

1.4.7   Spatial distribution

Foreign nationals (from all national groups) are much more likely to come to London to live
and work than UK citizens. However, London’s primacy is diminishing. Nevertheless, it
remains the case that almost two-thirds of foreign workers are in south-eastern England (i.e.
London and the South East) (Salt, 2006).

There has been a relative shift in the spatial distribution of labour migrants towards more
rural areas, especially from 2004 onwards as central and eastern European migrants
entered the UK in large numbers (Stenning et al., 2006; Green et al., 2006; Commission for
Rural Communities, 2007).

In analysing the spatial distribution of migrants at local level it is important to keep in mind
that while some migrants might live and work locally, others travel longer distance to work on
a daily basis: local authority district of residence and of work may not coincide. A study in the
Vale of Evesham suggested, on the basis of estimates using available data sources and
qualitative evidence from employers, that there were 2,000-2,400 long term casual migrants
who were directly employed in local agriculture and food processing sectors who live in or
near Evesham and a further 400-550 short-term (daily) employed migrant workers who are
employed via agencies and live in neighbouring conurbations (such as Birmingham) (Mercia
Strategy and Research, 2006). Hence, residence-based and workplace-based analyses of
migration may reveal different numbers and profiles of migrants.


1.5     Migrant Motivations, Intentions and Experiences

1.5.1   Diversity

There is no such thing as a ‘typical’ migrant. Rather, migrants are characterised by
heterogeneity of experience in the labour market. Nevertheless, some common themes and
issues emerge as important across studies – as outlined below.

1.5.2   Length of stay

The character of the migration (i.e. whether it is temporary or permanent) and the
characteristics of migrants are of particular importance in understanding migrant
experiences. We do not have a full picture of migrant intentions, although it seems likely that
for some the intention is long-term settlement, and for others it is a short-term stay. We do



                                               8
                                        Migrant Workers in the West Midlands – Desk-based Study


not know with any certainty the extent to which migration is temporary or permanent, since
we know little about emigration flows from the UK.

Local studies have addressed the issue of migrant intentions. For example, nearly a quarter
(of migrant workers responding to the migrant survey undertaken for ‘The Dynamic of
Migrant Labour in South Lincolnshire’ study (Zaronaite and Tirzite, 2006) planned to stay in
the UK permanently, while a further quarter had not yet decided (citing reasons of conditions
of work, accommodation and issues relating to bringing children to the UK) for their
uncertainty. Just under a fifth indicated that there stay in South Lincolnshire was ‘temporary’
and a further 14% cited stays of up to 2 years. Of course, whether these plans are fulfilled
remains to be seen. Likewise a study of migrants in the Highlands and Islands revealed that
for most the future was uncertain – much depending on how the situation in their home
countries developed in the short- and medium-term, as well as their experiences (whether
positive or negative) in Scotland (UHIPolicyWeb, 2006)

So whether initial migrant intentions are fulfilled or change depends - on circumstances in
origin countries as well as UK.

1.5.3   Trade-offs

From the migrant perspective, the main economic rationale for migration is the return that
might be realised in the short- or medium-term. Financial motivations are important but are
not migrants’ only motivation. Moreover, motivations can differ widely, depending on age,
family ties, experience and skill level. Younger people, especially, may be coming for shorter
periods, to experience new environments; to learn or improve their knowledge of English or
to earn money to return or move on (MacKay and Winkelmann-Gleed, 2005).

Research with central and east European migrants has reiterated that many trade-off low-
skilled work and poor conditions for better pay than in their home country (i.e. the classic
‘economic migrant’ position) or for other benefits, such as learning English (as revealed in
the Vale of Evesham study [Mercia Strategy and Research [2006]) (i.e. the ‘aspiring migrant’
position) to improve long-term prospects (see Anderson et al., 2006). For many of these
migrants working conditions are tolerable because they are temporary. Also, financially, they
may be earning more working below their skill level than working in a job matching their skills
in their home country. Putting up with poor conditions may be seen by migrants as a
temporary measure until they improved their English and communication skills and was seen
as ‘a foot in the door’ from which they might move on to education or better jobs. Some of
the low-skilled jobs that migrants do – characterised by short-term contracts, low pay,
irregular patterns of working/ long hours and a lack of training opportunities – may be
organised in such a way that makes them attractive to migrants, but not to the indigenous
workforce. 14

1.5.4   Migrant typologies

A 3-fold typology of migrant workers has been developed from research with employers
(LSC, 2007):
   1) ‘economic migrants’ - who are often low-skilled workers aiming to stay in low-skilled
       roles, attracted by the relatively higher pay found in the UK compared with their origin
       country. Generally, they are perceived as having short-term plans or opportunistic
       ideas regarding employment and want to make money easily and quickly. They are
       unlikely to integrate strongly into the UK workforce, especially if working in migrant


14
     This may underlie the ‘displacement’ of UK nationals from some ‘migrant dense’ occupations
     outlined in analyses in Part 3 of this report.


                                               9
                                           Migrant Workers in the West Midlands – Desk-based Study


         dense sectors and occupations in remote rural areas. From an employer perspective,
         training for such migrants may well be seen as a cost to be avoided.
      2) ‘aspiring migrants’ - typically, this group comprises students and skilled workers
         taking unskilled work in the UK while improving their English language abilities and/or
         gaining other relevant qualifications so that they can pursue their true career path –
         either in the UK, their country of origin or elsewhere. For this group of migrants
         employers might see the onus of improving English language skills on the workers
         themselves, since they would be the prime beneficiaries. Arguably, however, this
         group may be able to use their skills to contribute more broadly to business success
         and economic development in the UK.
      3) ‘global migrants’ who take skilled positions in the UK so addressing skills
         deficiencies. Members of this group are typically concentrated in professional
         positions.

1.5.5    Implications for training

Whether migration is temporary or permanent is likely to shape migrants’ attitudes towards
skill development and integration and have implications for skills and learning provision. A
transient migrant is likely to have a very different attitude to learning and skills development
than a migrant who intends to settle in the UK in the medium- or long term.

In a study of migrants in South Lincolnshire (Zaronaite and Tirzirte, 2006) 39% of migrants
surveyed wished to take ESOL (English for Speakers of Other Languages) courses and 32%
wanted to attend IT courses. Beyond this, many migrants wanted to gain equivalent UK
qualifications in their profession. There is evidence from other studies that migrants are
frustrated by their lack of knowledge and a lack of information on how to transfer their skills
to the UK context. Whether, and how important it is for their aspirations to be achieved,
depends in part on migrants’ future plans.

English language emerges consistently in studies of migration as being of particular
importance. Ability to speak English is not essential for all jobs, but it is important for
individuals and for self-sufficiency. It is a cornerstone of wider integration and cohesion. For
many migrants better English is a pre-requisite for improving their employment position
(Audit Commission, 2007).

1.6      Employer Perspectives

1.6.1    Rationale for employing migrants

Two main reasons emerge from a review of the literature for employment of migrant labour:
     to perform jobs requiring specialist skills not available in the UK (i.e. to address skills
     shortages and deficiencies);
     to fill vacancies for which there are not enough UK applicants (these may be unskilled/
     menial and/ or seasonal or temporary jobs which UK workers are unwilling to fill). 15
In both instances above relatively little training is needed (except perhaps in English) – in the
first case the migrants are already skilled and in the second case it is likely that little training
is required to do the job.

By addressing skill deficiencies and labour shortages employers confirm that migrants help
ensure the viability and stability of their businesses and have encouraged growth.



15
      Local people may be reluctant to take seasonal jobs because of a perceived fear of losing their
      benefit rights.


                                                  10
                                          Migrant Workers in the West Midlands – Desk-based Study


1.6.2   Employer typologies

Employer attitudes towards employing, and perception of, migrant workers vary. A study for
the LSC (2007) distinguished:
• ‘reluctants’ – who had negative attitudes towards migrant workers, employing them as an
    option of last resort when other recruitment channels had been exhausted. Such
    employers are unlikely to go out of their way to invest in development of migrants’ skills
    beyond minimum legislative and business imperatives.
• ‘advocates’ – who were characterised by a positive attitude towards migrant workers.
    Such employers were most likely to seek to develop migrants’ skills.
• ‘pragmatists’ – the largest category of employers, characterised by positively balanced
    views towards hiring migrant workers, viewing them dispassionately as a cost-effective
    commodity.

1.6.3   Recruitment channels

Local studies and larger surveys of migrant workers point to the importance of recruitment/
employment agencies as a recruitment channel for migrants. Employers may also favour use
of agencies, partly because of help with documentation checks as well as with the
recruitment process more generally. Other recruitment channels include formal advertising
and ‘word of mouth’. The latter is important; especially after the initial phase of recruitment -
hiring migrant workers can develop a dynamic of its own, with migrant workers often bring
friends and family members to join the same business.

1.6.4   Advantages and disadvantages of employing migrants

For many employers (especially the ‘pragmatists’ identified in 1.6.2), the main advantage of
hiring migrant workers is that they were perceived as having a stronger and more positive
work attitude and ethic than UK-born workers. In many instances, ‘willingness to work’ (i.e. a
strong work ethic) may be more important than specific skills; (although specialist skills are
important in some instances). A number of studies (e.g. Dench et al., 2006; Anderson et al.,
2006) have revealed that some employers prefer migrants (especially eastern European) to
British workers, because they are perceived to be better employees and have a better
attitude to work (i.e. they are hardworking, reliable, punctual and flexible). A survey by the
Chartered Institute of Personal Development in 2005 providing a comparison of employers’
ratings of migrant workers compared to other potential recruits (such as lone parents, those
with low skills, the over 50s, the disabled and long-term claimants of incapacity benefits)
found that migrants were the most highly rated category for productivity, adaptability, quality
of work and potential, and were second most highly rated for reliability, absence, customer
service and teamwork. This suggests that migrants compete strongly in recruitment channels
to lower skilled occupations. It is clear that first and foremost it is an ‘attitude gap’ (especially
on the part of younger UK workers who tend to be viewed as unmotivated and unwilling to
take low or unskilled jobs) rather than a ‘skills gap’ that employers see migrants as filling.
Employment of migrant labour may also be cost effective, on the basis that a migrant may be
willing to trade-off lower wages for other experiences and opportunities (e.g. learning
English).

Possible disadvantages of employing migrants include the existence of a language barrier
(which is likely to be a particular issue in customer facing roles or when technical jargon is
used). In some studies English language is accorded a high priority, but in other instances
employers may not perceive comprehensive language skills as very important: basic English
language skills may be sufficient. Migrants may be more complicated to recruit/ employ than
UK workers and it can be difficult to obtain references. In some instances perceptions that
migrants are transient or do not/ will not integrate may pose problems.



                                                 11
                                           Migrant Workers in the West Midlands – Desk-based Study


1.7     Labour Market Impacts

1.7.1   Introduction to possible impacts

The scale of recent migration flows – especially in some local areas – are such that they
represent a ‘shock’ to the labour market (Riley and Weale, 2006). The economic and labour
market impacts of international migrants have risen up the policy agenda and are prominent
in political and popular debate.

From the perspective of UK indigenous workers, the recruitment by employers of migrant
workers could have a number of negative effects, including:
   a reduction in employment rates amongst other groups in the labour market as
   employers use migrants to replace British workers (i.e. a displacement effect);
   an increase in the unemployment rate;
   lower probability of some groups (especially those with poor skills/ in low wage segments
   of the labour market) finding jobs (in the face of increased competition from migrants);
   reductions in vacancies notified to Jobcentre Plus – as employers use alternative
   recruitment channels to employ migrants and as vacancies are filled by migrant workers;
   migrant workers may be used by employers to maintain low wages.

Riley and Weale (2006) suggest that with migrants filling jobs at the low skill end of the
labour market rather than matching skills levels of indigenous workers, at a UK level inflation
will be less affected and unemployment will be more affected by low skill migration than by
migration where the skill level matches the UK population. Labour market impacts of migrant
workers are examined in greater detail in Part 3.

1.7.2   Key findings from previous studies

To date, empirical analysis of Labour Force Survey for the UK (Dustmann et al., 2005) has
found no evidence that immigration has negative effects on employment, participation,
unemployment or wages at aggregate level. Analyses by the Department for Work and
Pensions have found no discernible statistical evidence to suggest that migration from A8
countries has been a contributor to the rise in claimant unemployment in the UK (Portes and
French, 2005). The overall conclusion of previous analyses is that in aggregate the impact of
migration from A8 countries has been modest, but broadly positive. Evidence seems to
suggest that migrants tending to go where labour demand is buoyant and are taking up the
slack in the labour market and growing the economy. On balance, studies suggest that
migration is beneficial to the economy in addressing labour shortages and skills deficiencies
and having a positive effect on output. It helps meet employment and skills demand from
private sector businesses and also contributes to public sector service delivery.

UK-born people with poor skills who are already vulnerable to labour market restructuring
and who are most dependent on job opportunities in the immediate local area are most at
risk of suffering negative labour market impacts associated with a continuing influx of
migrant workers.

1.7.3   National, regional and local perspectives

Local areas vary in their exposure to and experience of migrant workers. Since migration is
inherently spatial (as outlined in Part 2), it is at the local level that its effects are most likely to
be felt. It is possible that the impact of migration on the labour market may vary both over
time and across space. Impacts are very hard to identify with any degree of certainty, and
there are currently apparently contradictory trends in the labour market, with both
unemployment and employment rising. Specific local circumstances may mean that negative
impacts may be felt by some people in some local areas but not in others, not at the national


                                                  12
                                       Migrant Workers in the West Midlands – Desk-based Study


or regional scale in aggregate. Locally in the East Midlands, there is a positive association
between the rate of increase in claimant unemployment and overseas NINo registrations as
a percentage of employment (Green et al., 2007), although there is no significant association
in the West Midlands (see Part 3).




                                             13
                                       Migrant Workers in the West Midlands – Desk-based Study



PART 2 – PROFILE OF MIGRANTS IN THE WEST MIDLANDS
This part of the report provides an analysis of the three key administrative data sources on
migrants in the West Midlands: (1) NINO registrations of overseas nationals; (2) Worker
Registration Scheme (WRS) data; and (3) Work Permit data.

2.1     NINo Registrations of Overseas Nationals

2.1.1   Overview

There has been a huge increase in the number of NINo registrations to overseas nationals
both nationally and in the West Midlands (Tables 2.1-2.4) over the four financial years
2002/3 to 2005/6 (the latest for which data is currently available). The UK total increased
from 349 thousand to 662 thousand over this period, while the West Midlands total increased
from 23.4 thousand to 41.7 thousand, falling from 6.7% to 6.3% of the UK total. The number
of registrations in the West Midlands was 78.4% higher in 2005/6 than 2002/3.
Table 2.1: West Midlands: registrations 2002/3
Broad geographical      United    percent     West     percent   share of
region of the world    Kingdom              Midlands               UK
All origins             349310       100.0     23400     100.0        6.7
Accession 8              11680         3.3       400       1.7        3.4
Bulgaria / Romania         5880        1.7       240       1.0        4.1
EU 15 countries          71960        20.6      2910      12.4        4.0
Ireland                    8780        2.5       280       1.2        3.2
New Commonwealth        119190        34.1     10560      45.1        8.9
Old Commonwealth         31510         9.0       700       3.0        2.2
Other Europe             14850         4.3       670       2.9        4.5
Rest of world            85460        24.5      7630      32.6        8.9

Table 2.2: West Midlands: registrations 2003/4
Broad geographical      United    percent     West     percent   share of
region of the world    Kingdom              Midlands               UK
All origins             370750       100.0     23170     100.0        6.3
Accession 8              19980         5.4       540       2.3        2.7
Bulgaria / Romania         8330        2.2       280       1.2        3.4
EU 15 countries          75430        20.3      3260      14.1        4.3
Ireland                    9480        2.6       310       1.3        3.3
New Commonwealth        131760        35.5     11170      48.2        8.5
Old Commonwealth         27930         7.5       610       2.6        2.2
Other Europe             15930         4.3       670       2.9        4.2
Rest of world            81950        22.1      6330      27.3        7.7

Table 2.3: West Midlands: registrations 2004/5
Broad geographical      United    percent     West     percent   share of
region of the world    Kingdom              Midlands               UK
All origins             439730       100.0     28080     100.0        6.4
Accession 8             110500        25.1      6960      24.8        6.3
Bulgaria / Romania         7780        1.8       320       1.1        4.1
EU 15 countries          72520        16.5      3620      12.9        5.0
Ireland                    8750        2.0       320       1.1        3.7
New Commonwealth        128440        29.2     10370      36.9        8.1
Old Commonwealth         27130         6.2       630       2.2        2.3
Other Europe             14820         3.4       720       2.6        4.9
Rest of world            69870        15.9      5140      18.3        7.4



                                             14
                                            Migrant Workers in the West Midlands – Desk-based Study


Table 2.4: West Midlands: registrations 2005/6
Broad geographical      United    percent     West          percent    share of
region of the world    Kingdom              Midlands                     UK
All origins             662390       100.0     41740           100.0        6.3
Accession 8             270250        40.8     19970            47.8        7.4
Bulgaria / Romania         5670        0.9       240             0.6        4.2
EU 15 countries          87260        13.2      3640             8.7        4.2
Ireland                  10330         1.6       340             0.8        3.3
New Commonwealth        153250        23.1     10560            25.3        6.9
Old Commonwealth         37580         5.7       730             1.7        1.9
Other Europe             16050         2.4       690             1.7        4.3
Rest of world            82020        12.4      5590            13.4        6.8

2.1.2    Changing national origins
NINo registrations will encompass both those arriving on Work Permits and those registering
for work on the WRS. This can be seen in the change in geographical origins of overseas
nationals NINo registrations in the West Midlands, with the shift from New Commonwealth
countries dominating in 2002/3 (45.1% of the total) to Accession 8 countries dominating in
2005/6 (47.8%; Table 2.5), with a 4892% increase in registrations over the same period.
Table 2.5: West Midlands: change in NINo registrations, 2002/3 to 2005/6
Broad geographical     2002/3   percent 2005/6       percent change      %
region of the world                                                      change
All origins             25390      100.0    41760       100.0     18370      78.4
Accession                  400       1.7    19970        47.8     19570   4892.5
Bulgaria / Romania         240       1.0       240        0.6         0       0.0
EU 15 countries           2910      12.4      3640        8.7       730      25.1
Ireland                    280       1.2       340        0.8        60      21.4
New Commonwealth        10560       45.1    10560        25.3         0       0.0
Old Commonwealth           700       3.0       730        1.7        30       4.3
Other Europe               670       2.9       690        1.7        20       3.0
Rest of world             7630      32.6      5590       13.4     -2040     -26.7

Table 2.6 lists the 30 largest countries in each financial year. At the start of the period, India,
Pakistan, the Philippines and countries of refugee flows such as Iraq and Afghanistan were
dominant, but Poland and other eastern European countries overtook them in 2004/5, and in
2005/6 (despite an increase in South Asian migration) there were three times more Polish
registrants than for the next largest country of origin (India).
Table 2.7 presents the three largest overseas nationalities registering for NINos by local
authority district in the financial year 2005/6. 16 The largest numbers of registrations in a
locality are for Polish people in every district except Dudley (Pakistani). India was the second
or third largest country of origin in 17 districts, while the Slovak Republic was the second or
third largest in 15 districts. The number of Pakistani and Indian people obtaining NINos was
highest in Birmingham. The number of Lithuanians was highest in Herefordshire 17 and
Wolverhampton, those from the Slovak Republic were most common in Stoke-on-Trent and
Herefordshire, while the most frequent destinations for Latvians was Coventry. The data
provided by the DWP are rounded to the nearest ten and frequently there were only 10
registrations for the third largest nationality in a district, emphasising the relatively small
numbers involved at the local scale in some local areas and the geographically specific
nature of labour migration.
16
     Note that these data are residence-based.
17
     This illustrates the greater ‘rural’ orientation of migrants from the Baltic States vis-à-vis other
     migrant groups (Commission for Rural Communities, 2007).


                                                   15
                                                                                                 Migrant Workers in the West Midlands – Desk-based Study


Table 2.6: West Midlands - 30 largest non-UK nationalities registering for National Insurance numbers, financial years 2002/3 to 2005/6
Country                2002/    %       Country             2003/    %       Country                  2004/    %       Country             2005/    %
                       03                                   04                                        05                                   06
All                    23400    100.0   All                 23190    100.0   All                      28100    100.0   All                 41740    100.0
India                   2640     11.3   India                2930     12.6   Poland                    4180     14.9   Poland              13350     32.0
Pakistan                2550     10.9   Pakistan             2210      9.5   India                     2890     10.3   India                3410      8.2
Iraq                    1900      8.1   Jamaica              1350      5.8   Pakistan                  2410      8.6   Pakistan             2460      5.9
Zimbabwe                1130      4.8   Zimbabwe             1130      4.9   China Peoples Rep         1030      3.7   Slovak Rep           2300      5.5
Afghanistan             1040      4.4   China Peoples Rep    1110      4.8   South Africa                850     3.0   Rep of Lithuania     1480      3.5
Philippines               970     4.1   Iraq                 1100      4.7   Slovak Rep                  810     2.9   Rep of Latvia        1180      2.8
Jamaica                   900     3.8   Philippines            850     3.7   Netherlands                 680     2.4   South Africa           920     2.2
China Peoples Rep         860     3.7   South Africa           820     3.5   Bangladesh                  660     2.3   China Peoples Rep      880     2.1
South Africa              810     3.5   Portugal               690     3.0   Portugal                    660     2.3   Iraq                   770     1.8
Bangladesh                660     2.8   Bangladesh             650     2.8   Zimbabwe                    640     2.3   Czech Rep              740     1.8
France                    550     2.4   Somalia                580     2.5   Iraq                        620     2.2   France                 700     1.7
Somalia                   550     2.4   Netherlands            540     2.3   Jamaica                     600     2.1   Bangladesh             690     1.7
Portugal                  450     1.9   France                 520     2.2   Rep of Lithuania            590     2.1   Netherlands            640     1.5
Australia                 410     1.8   Germany                410     1.8   France                      590     2.1   Iran                   620     1.5
Netherlands               390     1.7   Ghana                  390     1.7   Philippines                 590     2.1   Hungary                580     1.4
Germany                   380     1.6   Malaysia               390     1.7   Ghana                       540     1.9   Germany                550     1.3
Iran                      380     1.6   Australia              330     1.4   Rep of Latvia               470     1.7   Ghana                  530     1.3
Malaysia                  330     1.4   Rep of Ireland         310     1.3   Germany                     470     1.7   Nigeria                530     1.3
Spain                     310     1.3   Poland                 290     1.3   Somalia                     450     1.6   Philippines            520     1.2
Rep of Ireland            280     1.2   Iran                   280     1.2   Czech Rep                   420     1.5   Portugal               490     1.2
Ghana                     250     1.1   USA                    280     1.2   Nigeria                     390     1.4   Zimbabwe               470     1.1
USA                       250     1.1   Nigeria                270     1.2   Australia                   370     1.3   Australia              400     1.0
Nigeria                   240     1.0   Spain                  260     1.1   Iran                        340     1.2   Somalia                370     0.9
Sri Lanka                 190     0.8   Thailand               210     0.9   Malaysia                    330     1.2   Jamaica                350     0.8
Greece                    190     0.8   Afghanistan            200     0.9   Rep of Ireland              320     1.1   Rep of Ireland         340     0.8
Bulgaria                  180     0.8   Bulgaria               180     0.8   Spain                       300     1.1   Spain                  320     0.8
Poland                    180     0.8   Italy                  180     0.8   USA                         260     0.9   Eritrea                290     0.7
Canada                    170     0.7   Sri Lanka              170     0.7   Sri Lanka                   220     0.8   USA                    250     0.6
Sweden                    170     0.7   Sweden                 170     0.7   Hungary                     220     0.8   Malaysia               230     0.6
Kenya                     160     0.7   Turkey                 170     0.7   Italy                       220     0.8   Italy                  230     0.6




                                                                             16
                                                                                                Migrant Workers in the West Midlands – Desk-based Study


Table 2.7: Largest 3 overseas nationalities registering for NINo 2005/6 by local authority district
Local authority               All   Largest           Number        %    Second largest      Number      %    Third largest      Number      %
Birmingham                 11060    Poland              2470      22.3   Pakistan              1380    12.5   India                 920     8.3
Bridgnorth                    90    Poland                20      22.2   South Africa            10    11.1   Rep of Lithuania       10    11.1
Bromsgrove                   180    Poland                40      22.2   India                   20    11.1   South Africa           20    11.1
Cannock Chase                140    Poland                50      35.7   South Africa            10     7.1   Rep of Latvia          10     7.1
Coventry                    5520    Poland              1770      32.1   India                  540     9.8   Rep of Latvia         270     4.9
Dudley                       690    Pakistan             140      20.3   Poland                 110    15.9   India                  50     7.2
East Staffordshire           880    Poland               430      48.9   Pakistan                70     8.0   Rep of Latvia          70     8.0
Herefordshire, County of    2790    Poland              1230      44.1   Rep of Lithuania       530    19.0   Slovak Rep            230     8.2
Lichfield                    310    Poland               130      41.9   Rep of Latvia           50    16.1   Fiji                   10     3.2
Malvern Hills                320    Poland               120      37.5   Slovak Rep              30     9.4   India                  20     6.3
Newcastle-under-Lyme         460    Poland               130      28.3   China Peoples Rep       50    10.9   Sri Lanka              20     4.3
North Shropshire             280    Poland               150      53.6   Slovak Rep              20     7.1   India                  10     3.6
North Warwickshire           190    Poland               110      57.9   Indonesia               20    10.5   Australia              10     5.3
Nuneaton and Bedworth        530    Poland               240      45.3   India                  110    20.8   Nepal                  20     3.8
Oswestry                     130    Poland                50      38.5   Slovak Rep              30    23.1   Rep of Latvia          10     7.7
Redditch                     870    Poland               460      52.9   Slovak Rep             120    13.8   Hungary                60     6.9
Rugby                       1010    Poland               470      46.5   Slovak Rep              70     6.9   Portugal               60     5.9
Sandwell                    2140    Poland               670      31.3   India                  350    16.4   Pakistan              150     7.0
Shrewsbury and Atcham        420    Poland               170      40.5   India                   30     7.1   Rep of Latvia          20     4.8
Solihull                     490    Poland                90      18.4   India                   50    10.2   South Africa           30     6.1
South Shropshire             150    Poland                50      33.3   Slovak Rep              30    20.0   Australia              10     6.7
South Staffordshire          140    Poland                50      35.7   India                   20    14.3   South Africa           10     7.1
Stafford                     590    Poland               200      33.9   India                   60    10.2   Slovak Rep             50     8.5
Staffordshire Moorlands      220    Poland                80      36.4   Slovak Rep              30    13.6   Australia              10     4.5
Stoke-on-Trent              2160    Poland               450      20.8   Slovak Rep             240    11.1   India                 200     9.3
Stratford-on-Avon           1110    Poland               520      46.8   South Africa           120    10.8   Rep of Lithuania       40     3.6
Tamworth                     270    Poland               150      55.6   Slovak Rep              20     7.4   Rep of Latvia          10     3.7
Telford and Wrekin          1500    Poland               630      42.0   Ghana                  200    13.3   Slovak Rep             90     6.0
Walsall                     1290    Poland               300      23.3   Slovak Rep             180    14.0   India                 170    13.2
Warwick                     1070    Poland               340      31.8   India                  100     9.3   South Africa           60     5.6
Wolverhampton               2520    Poland               610      24.2   India                  370    14.7   Rep of Lithuania      220     8.7
Worcester                    920    Poland               400      43.5   Portugal                80     8.7   Slovak Rep             60     6.5
Wychavon                     970    Poland               520      53.6   Slovak Rep              80     8.2   Rep of Lithuania       70     7.2
Wyre Forest                  360    Poland               170      47.2   India                   20     5.6   Hungary                20     5.6




                                                                            17
                                          Migrant Workers in the West Midlands – Desk-based Study


2.1.3   Spatial distribution and local impacts

Figures 2.1 to 2.6 present NINo registrations in 2002/3 and 2005/6 as percentages of
working age people, economically active people and people aged 16 to 39, respectively.
These maps dramatically highlight the increase in NINo registrations across the region and
the locally significant numbers in Herefordshire and other rural areas in 2005/6, adding to the
urban concentrations already apparent in 2002/3. Figure 2.7 replicates a diagram in the
recent Audit Commission (2007) report for West Midlands LADs only, demonstrating that the
local impact of NINo registrations is highest in Herefordshire and Coventry (the two points
furthest to the right on the graph), while the impact is least in areas such as Cannock Chase,
Bridgnorth and South Staffordshire, all located in the bottom left-hand corner on the graph.
NINo registrations as a percentage of the working age population in 2005/6 were highest in
Coventry, while the change between the two dates was greatest in Herefordshire.

Figure 2.1:     NINo registrations for overseas nationals 2002/3 as a percentage of
                people aged 16 to 59/64

                                                                    NINo registrations 2002/3
                                                                    % of w orking age 2002

                                                                        1    to 1.499
                                                                        0.75 to 0.999
                                                                        0.5 to 0.749
                                                                        0.25 to 0.499
                                                                        0    to 0.249




Sources: NINo registrations for overseas nationals; Mid Year Estimates (via Nomis)



                                                18
                                          Migrant Workers in the West Midlands – Desk-based Study


Figure 2.2:     NINo registrations for overseas nationals 2005/6 as a percentage of
                people aged 16 to 59/64

                                                                    NINo registrations 2005/6
                                                                    % of w orking age 2005

                                                                        1.5 to 2.66
                                                                        1    to 1.499
                                                                        0.75 to 0.999
                                                                        0.5 to 0.749
                                                                        0.25 to 0.499
                                                                        0    to 0.249




Sources: NINo registrations for overseas nationals; Mid Year Estimates (via Nomis)




                                                19
                                          Migrant Workers in the West Midlands – Desk-based Study


Figure 2.3:     NINo registrations 2002/3 for overseas nationals as a percentage of
                economically people

                                                                    NINo registrations 2002/3
                                                                    % economically active 2002

                                                                        2.5 to 3.84
                                                                        2 to 2.499
                                                                        1.5 to 1.999
                                                                        1 to 1.499
                                                                        0.5 to 0.999
                                                                        0 to 0.499
                                                                        all others




Sources: NINo registrations for overseas nationals; people of working age economically active from
LFS Summer Quarter 2002 (via Nomis)




                                                 20
                                          Migrant Workers in the West Midlands – Desk-based Study


Figure 2.4:     NINo registrations for overseas nationals 2005/6 as a percentage of
                economically active people

                                                                    NINo registrations 2005/6
                                                                    % economically active 2005

                                                                        2.5 to 3.92
                                                                        2 to 2.499
                                                                        1.5 to 1.999
                                                                        1 to 1.499
                                                                        0.5 to 0.999
                                                                        0 to 0.499




Sources: NINo registrations for overseas nationals; people of working age economically active from
LFS Summer Quarter 2005 (via Nomis)




                                                 21
                                          Migrant Workers in the West Midlands – Desk-based Study


Figure 2.5:    NINo registrations for overseas nationals 2002/3 as a percentage of
               economically people aged 16-39

                                                                   NINo registrations 2002/3
                                                                   % of people aged 16-39 2002

                                                                       3 to 3.999
                                                                       2 to 2.999
                                                                       1 to 1.999
                                                                       0 to 0.999




Sources: NINo registrations for overseas nationals; Mid Year estimates people aged 16-39 years (via
Nomis)




                                                22
                                          Migrant Workers in the West Midlands – Desk-based Study


Figure 2.6:    NINo registrations for overseas nationals 2005/6 as a percentage of
               economically active people aged 16-39

                                                                   NINo registrations 2005/6
                                                                   % people aged 16-39 2005

                                                                       5 to 6.01
                                                                       4 to 4.999
                                                                       3 to 3.999
                                                                       2 to 2.999
                                                                       1 to 1.999
                                                                       0 to 0.99




Sources: NINo registrations for overseas nationals; Mid Year estimates people aged 16-39 years (via
Nomis)




                                                23
                                                                           Migrant Workers in the West Midlands – Desk-based Study


Figure 2.7 replicates a diagram in a recent Audit Commission report, but here for West
Midlands local authorities only. It demonstrating that the local impact of NINo registrations is
highest in Herefordshire and Coventry (the two points furthest to the right on the graph),
while the impact is least in areas such as Cannock Chase, Bridgnorth and South
Staffordshire, all located in the bottom left-hand corner on the graph. NINo registrations as a
percentage of the working age population in 2005/6 were highest in Coventry, while the
change between the two dates was greatest in Herefordshire.

Figure 2.7: Impact of NINo registrations of overseas nationals



                           2.5


                                                                                                                Herefordshire

                           2.0
 Speed (2005/6 - 2002/3)




                           1.5

                                                                                          Redditch
                                                                                                                                Coventry

                           1.0



                                                           N Shropshire
                           0.5

                                   Bridgnorth                                                Birmingham

                                                Solihull
                           0.0
                                 0.0              0.5                1.0            1.5                   2.0      2.5                     3.0
                                                                     Scale (2005/6 as % of working age)


Note:                              Scale is calculated as new NI numbers issued to non-UK nationals in 2005/06 per authority as
                                   a percentage of the working age population in that authority.
                                   Speed is change in percentage from 2002/03 to 2005/06.




                                                                                  24
                                       Migrant Workers in the West Midlands – Desk-based Study



2.1.4   Benefit claims

At the start of the period, 18.1% of overseas nationals NINo registrations were associated
with the claiming of Job Seekers’ Allowance within 6 months of registration. This percentage
was highest in East Staffordshire, Stoke-on-Trent and Wolverhampton (Table 2.8). In most
rural and smaller urban areas, this percentage was close to zero. It declined steadily over
the period to 4.1% in 2005/6. The largest percentages in 2005/6 were in Birmingham (7.5%)
and Dudley (7.2%).

Table 2.8: Percentage of overseas nationals NINo registrations for Job Seekers’ Allowance
                            2002/3    2003/4   2004/5      2005/6
Birmingham                    19.7      15.4      10.8        7.5
Bridgnorth                     0.0       0.0       0.0        0.0
Bromsgrove                     0.0       0.0       8.3        5.6
Cannock Chase                 12.5       0.0       0.0        0.0
County of Herefordshire        3.7       5.4       1.8        0.4
Coventry                      22.0      17.4       9.2        5.8
Dudley                        17.7      10.9       6.3        7.2
East Staffordshire            30.8      14.3       1.8        2.3
Lichfield                      0.0       0.0       0.0        0.0
Malvern Hills                  0.0       0.0       0.0        0.0
Newcastle-under-Lyme          10.0       4.2       3.6        2.2
North Shropshire               0.0       0.0       0.0        0.0
North Warwickshire             0.0       0.0       0.0        0.0
Nuneaton and Bedworth          9.1       4.0       0.0        1.9
Oswestry                       0.0       0.0       0.0        0.0
Redditch                       4.8       4.8       2.3        0.0
Rugby                          6.3       2.6       1.5        1.0
Sandwell                      21.9      12.7       8.7        6.1
Shrewsbury and Atcham          8.3       5.9       0.0        0.0
Solihull                       7.3       5.9       4.4        4.1
South Shropshire               0.0       0.0       0.0        0.0
South Staffordshire            0.0       0.0       0.0        0.0
Stafford                       0.0       3.2       0.0        0.0
Staffordshire Moorlands        0.0      10.0       0.0        0.0
Stoke-on-Trent                24.6      16.2       6.9        5.6
Stratford-on-Avon              3.2       0.0       0.0        0.0
Tamworth                       0.0       0.0       0.0        0.0
Telford and Wrekin             5.1       2.1       2.4        1.3
Walsall                       19.0      11.8       4.7        3.1
Warwick                        3.3       1.7       1.3        0.9
Wolverhampton                 27.9      13.2       7.6        4.4
Worcester                     11.4       8.7       1.5        1.1
Wychavon                       4.5       0.0       1.9        0.0
Wyre Forest                    9.1       0.0       0.0        0.0
West Midlands                 18.1      12.3       6.5        4.1




                                             25
                                       Migrant Workers in the West Midlands – Desk-based Study



2.1.5   Gender

Just over two-fifths of those registering for a NINo were female (Table 2.9), the highest
percentages occurring in smaller local authorities with large hospitals, such as Oswestry and
Wyre Forest (usually in 2002/3).

Table 2.9: Percentage of NINo registrations female
                            2002/3     2003/4   2004/5    2005/6
Birmingham                    44.2       48.5      46.7     43.9
Bridgnorth                    50.0       75.0      57.1     55.6
Bromsgrove                    44.4       60.0      58.3     55.6
Cannock Chase                 50.0       55.6      40.0     42.9
County of Herefordshire       51.9       54.1      43.6     42.3
Coventry                      37.2       43.7      43.2     40.9
Dudley                        45.2       50.9      46.0     49.3
East Staffordshire            28.2       40.0      39.3     40.9
Lichfield                     50.0       46.2      44.4     35.5
Malvern Hills                 60.0       75.0      52.6     50.0
Newcastle-under-Lyme          50.0       54.2      46.4     50.0
North Shropshire              66.7       57.1      50.0     42.9
North Warwickshire            40.0       75.0      46.2     36.8
Nuneaton and Bedworth         54.5       60.0      42.9     35.8
Oswestry                      66.7       60.0      37.5     30.8
Redditch                      57.1       47.6      37.2     40.2
Rugby                         53.1       46.2      47.7     40.6
Sandwell                      45.3       49.3      43.3     43.5
Shrewsbury and Atcham         41.7       52.9      57.1     50.0
Solihull                      53.7       58.8      51.1     46.9
South Shropshire              50.0       66.7      50.0     33.3
South Staffordshire           40.0       66.7      60.0     57.1
Stafford                      50.0       48.4      40.4     39.0
Staffordshire Moorlands       57.1       50.0      50.0     36.4
Stoke-on-Trent                36.0       43.8      36.1     33.8
Stratford-on-Avon             58.1       57.6      50.0     49.5
Tamworth                      55.6       50.0      50.0     40.7
Telford and Wrekin            38.5       39.6      40.0     37.3
Walsall                       44.3       51.3      41.9     39.5
Warwick                       50.8       55.2      48.1     44.9
Wolverhampton                 36.6       49.0      42.4     42.1
Worcester                     47.7       41.3      47.1     41.3
Wychavon                      54.5       52.2      50.0     42.3
Wyre Forest                   72.7       54.5      40.9     44.4
West Midlands                 43.7       48.6      44.8     42.2




                                              26
                                           Migrant Workers in the West Midlands – Desk-based Study


2.2      A8 migration to the West Midlands

This section presents analyses of Workers Registration Scheme (WRS) initial approvals over
the period from May 2004 to December 2006. The data were obtained via a Freedom of
Information request submitted to the Home Office (Work Permits UK). 18

2.2.1    National origins

A total of 41,379 people from A8 countries were granted initial approvals in the West
Midlands from May 2004 until the end of December 2006 (Table 2.10).

Table 2.10: West Midlands: WRS approvals by country and time period
                               May     Jan-    April-     July-   Oct to           2006        May
                              2004   March      June      Sept       Dec            total   2004 to
                            to-Dec    2006      2006      2006      2006                       Dec
                              2005                                                            2006
Czech Republic                 759      120      111       208       143            582       1341
Estonia                        299       37       31        46        29            143        442
Hungary                        549       98       82        91       137            408        957
Latvia                        1560      244      282       341       155           1022       2582
Lithuania                     2134      229      249       376       183           1037       3171
Poland                       13779    2883      2927      4281      4055          14146      27925
Slovakia                      2694      384      497       800       570           2251       4945
Slovenia                        11        1         2         2        0              5         16
Total                        21785    3996      4181      6145      5272          19594      41379

Around half of all initial approvals under the scheme were made in 2006 (Table 2.11).

Table 2.11: West Midlands: percent approved in each time period by country of origin
                            May      Jan-      April-   July-     Oct to       2006
                            2004     March     June     Sept      Dec           total
                            to-Dec   2006      2006     2006      2006
                            2005
Czech Republic                  56.6      8.9       8.3     15.5     10.7       43.4
Estonia                         67.6      8.4       7.0     10.4       6.6      32.4
Hungary                         57.4    10.2        8.6       9.5    14.3       42.6
Latvia                          60.4      9.5     10.9      13.2       6.0      39.6
Lithuania                       67.3      7.2       7.9     11.9       5.8      32.7
Poland                          49.3    10.3      10.5      15.3     14.5       50.7
Slovakia                        54.5      7.8     10.1      16.2     11.5       45.5
Slovenia                        68.8      6.3     12.5      12.5       0.0      31.3
Total                           52.6      9.7     10.1      14.9     12.7       47.4

Two-thirds (27925) were form Poland (67.5%; Table 2.12), while the next largest
nationalities were Slovakians, Lithuanians and Latvians. Only 16 Slovenians were approved
over this 32-month period. The share of Poles in the total was higher in 2006 than in the
previous 20 months of the WRS.




18
      Note that these data are residence-based.


                                                  27
                                       Migrant Workers in the West Midlands – Desk-based Study


Table 2.12: West Midlands: percentage of approvals by country in each time period
                                May      Jan-    April-    July-    Oct to     2006        May
                               2004    March      June     Sept       Dec       total   2004 to
                             to-Dec     2006     2006      2006      2006                  Dec
                               2005                                                       2006
Czech Republic                   3.5      3.0      2.7       3.4       2.7       3.0        3.2
Estonia                          1.4      0.9      0.7       0.7       0.6       0.7        1.1
Hungary                          2.5      2.5      2.0       1.5       2.6       2.1        2.3
Latvia                           7.2      6.1      6.7       5.5       2.9       5.2        6.2
Lithuania                        9.8      5.7      6.0       6.1       3.5       5.3        7.7
Poland                          63.2     72.1     70.0      69.7      76.9      72.2       67.5
Slovakia                        12.4      9.6     11.9      13.0      10.8      11.5       12.0
Slovenia                         0.1      0.0      0.0       0.0       0.0       0.0        0.0
Total                         21785     3996     4181      6145      5272    19594       41379

2.2.2   Gender

Overall, just under two-fifths of WRS applicants were female (Table 2.13). The percentage of
female applicants was higher in 2006 than 2004/5, and increased during 2006.

Table 2.13: West Midlands: gender of WRS applicants
Time period                       Female   Male          All       %
                                                                 female
May04 – December 05                  8068     13714     21785       37.0
Jan 06-Mar 06                        1487      2509      3996       37.2
Apr 06-Jun 06                        1513      2668      4181       36.2
Jul 06-Sep 06                        2549      3596      6145       41.5
Oct 06 - Dec 06                      2240      3031      5272       42.5
2006                                 7789     11804     19594       39.8
May 2004-December 2006              15857     25518     41379       38.3

2.2.3   Age

WRS applicants are overwhelmingly young people. More than four-fifths ware aged between
18 and 34, with 45.1% aged 18 to 24 (Table 2.14).

Table 2.14: West Midlands: age group and period of approval
Age group                            Number                 Percent of approvals
                             May      2006      May      May       2006       May
                            2004 to           2004 to 2004 to               2004 to
                             Dec                Dec      Dec                  Dec
                             2005               2006     2005                2006
<18                              61       66       127       0.3       0.3       0.3
18-24                         9932     8846     18778       45.6      45.1      45.4
25-34                         8088     7373     15461       37.1      37.6      37.4
35-44                         2312     2009      4321       10.6      10.3      10.4
45-54                         1260     1170      2430        5.8       6.0       5.9
55-64                          129      129        258       0.6       0.7       0.6
65+                               3        1         4       0.0       0.0       0.0
Total                        21785    19594     41379     100.0     100.0     100.0

2.2.4   Geographical Distribution by nationality

The most important destinations in volume terms for WRS applicants were Herefordshire,
Birmingham, Coventry and Stratford-upon-Avon (Table 2.15). Poles are the dominant


                                              28
                                         Migrant Workers in the West Midlands – Desk-based Study


nationality, especially in urban areas (Table 2.16). In rural areas, Lithuanians and Latvians
are relatively larger: only half are located in local authorities classified as urban, and 23.3%
are located in rural-50 districts (Table 2.17). Of the A8 national groups, Lithuanians are most
likely to be found in rural areas.

Table 2.15: WRS Initial approvals by local authority district, May 2004-December 2006
                    Czech   Estonia   Hungary   Latvia    Lithuania   Poland   Slovakia   Slovenia   Total
                     Rep
Birmingham            216       36       127      217         279      4,269      914           5     6,063
Bridgnorth             15        5        13       19          26         98       15           0       191
Bromsgrove             27        0        15        3           4        137       37           0       223
Cannock Chase           9        0         3       11          12        118       22           0       175
Coventry               53       14        37      231          93      1,728      233           4     2,393
Dudley                 27        1        20       20          41        563       65           0       737
E. Staffordshire       27        5        30      191          80      1,054       84           0     1,471
Herefordshire         209      110       156      568       1,141      3,451      974           2     6,611
Lichfield              19       10         3      217         132        846       22           0     1,249
Malvern Hills           9        5        10       37          42        274       61           2       440
Newcastle-             11       18        16       55          25        285      231           0       641
under-Lyme
N. Shropshire          31        4         1         11        15       275         49          0      386
N. Warwickshire         7        1         3         32        41       825         70          0      979
Nuneaton and           25      126         7         22         8       456         53          0      697
Bedworth
Oswestry                1        0         2        6           1         51       28           0        89
Redditch               36        3        14       10          21        809      202           0     1,095
Rugby                  26        3        13       85          15        659       66           0       867
Sandwell               41       11        27      157         147      1,139      145           1     1,668
Shrewsbury and         31        6         3       67          11        378       52           0       548
Atcham
Solihull               51         9       57         18        21       489        68           0      713
S. Shropshire          28         4       12         21        19       143       108           1      336
S. Staffordshire       12         2        1         23        58       139         8           0      243
Stafford               20         2       11         95        59       534        61           0      782
Staffordshire          32         0       21          8         7       192       110           0      370
Moorlands
Stoke-on-Trent         55       12        57         53        38      1,470       50           0     1,735
Stratford-on-          51       23        39         65       138      1,608      171           1     2,096
Avon
Tamworth               11        1         4       11          14       275        29           0       345
Telford and            70       11        45      102         100       886       194           0     1,408
Wrekin
Walsall                45        4        14       26          59      1,401      368           0     1,917
Warwick                36        4        33       19          23        416       61           0       592
Wolverhampton          30        2        13       69         323        979      121           0     1,537
Worcester              16        3        57       12          28        378       72           0       566
Wychavon               29        7        91      100         141      1,312      167           0     1,847
Wyre Forest            35        0         2        1           9        288       34           0       369
Total               1,341      442       957    2,582       3,171     27,925    4,945          16    41,379

Major Urban           410       63       258      507         870      8,840    1,681           6    12,635
Large Urban           119       44       110      339         156      3,483      514           4     4,769
Other Urban           158      144       127      157         171      2,804      550           0     4,111
Significant Rural     223       22       111      495         271      3,723      425           0     5,270
Rural-50              276      126       193      862       1,363      5,588    1,237           4     9,649
Rural-80              155       43       158      222         340      3,487      538           2     4,945




                                                29
                                          Migrant Workers in the West Midlands – Desk-based Study


Table 2.16: Percentage of Initial approvals by country in each local authority district, May 2004-
December 2006
                    Czech    Estonia   Hungary   Latvia     Lithuania   Poland   Slovakia   Slovenia    Total
                     Rep
Birmingham            3.6        0.6       2.1      3.6         4.6       70.4      15.1        0.1     6,063
Bridgnorth            7.9        2.6       6.8      9.9        13.6       51.3       7.9        0.0       191
Bromsgrove           12.1        0.0       6.7      1.3         1.8       61.4      16.6        0.0       223
Cannock Chase         5.1        0.0       1.7      6.3         6.9       67.4      12.6        0.0       175
Coventry              2.2        0.6       1.5      9.7         3.9       72.2       9.7        0.2     2,393
Dudley                3.7        0.1       2.7      2.7         5.6       76.4       8.8        0.0       737
E. Staffordshire      1.8        0.3       2.0     13.0         5.4       71.7       5.7        0.0     1,471
Herefordshire         3.2        1.7       2.4      8.6        17.3       52.2      14.7        0.0     6,611
Lichfield             1.5        0.8       0.2     17.4        10.6       67.7       1.8        0.0     1,249
Malvern Hills         2.0        1.1       2.3      8.4         9.5       62.3      13.9        0.5       440
Newcastle-            1.7        2.8       2.5      8.6         3.9       44.5      36.0        0.0       641
under-Lyme
N. Shropshire         8.0       1.0        0.3        2.8        3.9      71.2      12.7        0.0       386
N. Warwickshire       0.7       0.1        0.3        3.3        4.2      84.3       7.2        0.0       979
Nuneaton and          3.6      18.1        1.0        3.2        1.1      65.4       7.6        0.0       697
Bedworth
Oswestry               1.1       0.0       2.2      6.7          1.1      57.3      31.5        0.0        89
Redditch               3.3       0.3       1.3      0.9          1.9      73.9      18.4        0.0     1,095
Rugby                  3.0       0.3       1.5      9.8          1.7      76.0       7.6        0.0       867
Sandwell               2.5       0.7       1.6      9.4          8.8      68.3       8.7        0.1     1,668
Shrewsbury and         5.7       1.1       0.5     12.2          2.0      69.0       9.5        0.0       548
Atcham
Solihull               7.2       1.3       8.0      2.5         2.9       68.6       9.5        0.0       713
S. Shropshire          8.3       1.2       3.6      6.3         5.7       42.6      32.1        0.3       336
S. Staffordshire       4.9       0.8       0.4      9.5        23.9       57.2       3.3        0.0       243
Stafford               2.6       0.3       1.4     12.1         7.5       68.3       7.8        0.0       782
Staffordshire          8.6       0.0       5.7      2.2         1.9       51.9      29.7        0.0       370
Moorlands
Stoke-on-Trent         3.2       0.7       3.3        3.1        2.2      84.7       2.9        0.0     1,735
Stratford-on-          2.4       1.1       1.9        3.1        6.6      76.7       8.2        0.0     2,096
Avon
Tamworth               3.2       0.3       1.2        3.2        4.1      79.7       8.4        0.0       345
Telford and            5.0       0.8       3.2        7.2        7.1      62.9      13.8        0.0     1,408
Wrekin
Walsall               2.3        0.2      0.7         1.4       3.1       73.1      19.2        0.0     1,917
Warwick               6.1        0.7      5.6         3.2       3.9       70.3      10.3        0.0       592
Wolverhampton         2.0        0.1      0.8         4.5      21.0       63.7       7.9        0.0     1,537
Worcester             2.8        0.5     10.1         2.1       4.9       66.8      12.7        0.0       566
Wychavon              1.6        0.4      4.9         5.4       7.6       71.0       9.0        0.0     1,847
Wyre Forest           9.5        0.0      0.5         0.3       2.4       78.0       9.2        0.0       369
Total                 3.2        1.1      2.3         6.2       7.7       67.5      12.0        0.0    41,379

Major Urban            3.2       0.5       2.0        4.0       6.9       70.0      13.3        0.0    12,635
Large Urban            2.5       0.9       2.3        7.1       3.3       73.0      10.8        0.1     4,769
Other Urban            3.8       3.5       3.1        3.8       4.2       68.2      13.4        0.0     4,111
Significant Rural      4.2       0.4       2.1        9.4       5.1       70.6       8.1        0.0     5,270
Rural-50               2.9       1.3       2.0        8.9      14.1       57.9      12.8        0.0     9,649
Rural-80               3.1       0.9       3.2        4.5       6.9       70.5      10.9        0.0     4,945




                                                 30
                                          Migrant Workers in the West Midlands – Desk-based Study


Table 2.17: Percentage of all Initial approvals in the West Midlands region by country in each
local authority district, May 2004-December 2006
                    Czech    Estonia   Hungary   Latvia     Lithuania   Poland   Slovakia   Slovenia   Total
                     Rep
Birmingham           16.1       8.1      13.3       8.4         8.8       15.3      18.5       31.3     14.7
Bridgnorth            1.1       1.1       1.4       0.7         0.8        0.4       0.3        0.0      0.5
Bromsgrove            2.0       0.0       1.6       0.1         0.1        0.5       0.7        0.0      0.5
Cannock Chase         0.7       0.0       0.3       0.4         0.4        0.4       0.4        0.0      0.4
Coventry              4.0       3.2       3.9       8.9         2.9        6.2       4.7       25.0      5.8
Dudley                2.0       0.2       2.1       0.8         1.3        2.0       1.3        0.0      1.8
E. Staffordshire      2.0       1.1       3.1       7.4         2.5        3.8       1.7        0.0      3.6
Herefordshire        15.6      24.9      16.3      22.0        36.0       12.4      19.7       12.5     16.0
Lichfield             1.4       2.3       0.3       8.4         4.2        3.0       0.4        0.0      3.0
Malvern Hills         0.7       1.1       1.0       1.4         1.3        1.0       1.2       12.5      1.1
Newcastle-            0.8       4.1       1.7       2.1         0.8        1.0       4.7        0.0      1.5
under-Lyme
N. Shropshire         2.3       0.9        0.1        0.4        0.5       1.0       1.0        0.0       0.9
N. Warwickshire       0.5       0.2        0.3        1.2        1.3       3.0       1.4        0.0       2.4
Nuneaton and          1.9      28.5        0.7        0.9        0.3       1.6       1.1        0.0       1.7
Bedworth
Oswestry               0.1       0.0       0.2        0.2        0.0       0.2       0.6        0.0       0.2
Redditch               2.7       0.7       1.5        0.4        0.7       2.9       4.1        0.0       2.6
Rugby                  1.9       0.7       1.4        3.3        0.5       2.4       1.3        0.0       2.1
Sandwell               3.1       2.5       2.8        6.1        4.6       4.1       2.9        6.3       4.0
Shrewsbury and         2.3       1.4       0.3        2.6        0.3       1.4       1.1        0.0       1.3
Atcham
Solihull               3.8       2.0       6.0        0.7        0.7       1.8       1.4        0.0       1.7
S. Shropshire          2.1       0.9       1.3        0.8        0.6       0.5       2.2        6.3       0.8
S. Staffordshire       0.9       0.5       0.1        0.9        1.8       0.5       0.2        0.0       0.6
Stafford               1.5       0.5       1.1        3.7        1.9       1.9       1.2        0.0       1.9
Staffordshire          2.4       0.0       2.2        0.3        0.2       0.7       2.2        0.0       0.9
Moorlands
Stoke-on-Trent         4.1       2.7       6.0        2.1        1.2       5.3       1.0        0.0       4.2
Stratford-on-          3.8       5.2       4.1        2.5        4.4       5.8       3.5        6.3       5.1
Avon
Tamworth               0.8       0.2       0.4        0.4        0.4       1.0       0.6        0.0       0.8
Telford and            5.2       2.5       4.7        4.0        3.2       3.2       3.9        0.0       3.4
Wrekin
Walsall               3.4       0.9       1.5      1.0          1.9       5.0       7.4        0.0       4.6
Warwick               2.7       0.9       3.4      0.7          0.7       1.5       1.2        0.0       1.4
Wolverhampton         2.2       0.5       1.4      2.7         10.2       3.5       2.4        0.0       3.7
Worcester             1.2       0.7       6.0      0.5          0.9       1.4       1.5        0.0       1.4
Wychavon              2.2       1.6       9.5      3.9          4.4       4.7       3.4        0.0       4.5
Wyre Forest           2.6       0.0       0.2      0.0          0.3       1.0       0.7        0.0       0.9
Total               100.0     100.0     100.0    100.0        100.0     100.0     100.0      100.0     100.0

Major Urban          30.6      14.3      27.0      19.6        27.4       31.7      34.0       37.5     30.5
Large Urban           8.9      10.0      11.5      13.1         4.9       12.5      10.4       25.0     11.5
Other Urban          11.8      32.6      13.3       6.1         5.4       10.0      11.1        0.0      9.9
Significant Rural    16.6       5.0      11.6      19.2         8.5       13.3       8.6        0.0     12.7
Rural-50             20.6      28.5      20.2      33.4        43.0       20.0      25.0       25.0     23.3
Rural-80             11.6       9.7      16.5       8.6        10.7       12.5      10.9       12.5     12.0




                                                 31
                                            Migrant Workers in the West Midlands – Desk-based Study


2.2.5    Industry

The WRS does not use the Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) for coding industry. Table
2.18 shows the industrial distribution of registrations by the coding scheme used in WRS.
Some of the categories are large and general – for example, Administrative, business &
management services (which will include recruitment agencies). Other categories are much
more industrially-specific.

Two-fifths of all WRS registrations are in administration, business and management
services, 19 and a further fifth in agricultural services. The third largest sector is hospitality
and catering, followed by manufacturing. Meat processing and other food processing
account for about 4% of WRS registrations and transport for 4.2%, just ahead of health and
medical services and construction.

Table 2.18: West Midlands - Industry of WRS registrations
                                2004/5     2006        All           2004/5      2006         All
                                                                      (% of      (% of      (% of
                                                                      total)     total)     total)
ADMIN, BUS & MAN                       7585       8580      16165        34.8       43.8       39.1
SERVICES
AGRICULTURE ACTIVITIES                 4522       3796       8318        20.8      19.4       20.1
COMPUTER SERVICES                        21         24         45         0.1       0.1        0.1
CONSTRUCTION & LAND                     564        580       1144         2.6       3.0        2.8
SERV
EDUCATION & CULTURAL                    146        130        276         0.7        0.7        0.7
ACT.
ENT & LEISURE SERVICES                  266        174        440         1.2        0.9        1.1
EXTRACTION INDUSTRIES                    52         36         88         0.2        0.2        0.2
FINANCIAL SERVICES                       18         19         37         0.1        0.1        0.1
Fish Processing SBS                      15          3         18         0.1        0.0        0.0
GOVERNMENT                               10          9         19         0.0        0.0        0.0
HEALTH & MEDICAL                        717        704       1421         3.3        3.6        3.4
SERVICES
Hospitality - SBS                       143         67        210         0.7        0.3       0.5
HOSPITALITY & CATERING                 2829       1921       4750        13.0        9.8      11.5
LAW RELATED SERVICES                      2          3          5         0.0        0.0       0.0
MANUFACTURING                          2175       1524       3699        10.0        7.8       8.9
Meat Processing SBS                     151        145        296         0.7        0.7       0.7
Other Food Processing SBS               820        539       1359         3.8        2.8       3.3
REAL EST & PROP SERVICES                 53         65        118         0.2        0.3       0.3
RETAIL & RELATED                        555        573       1128         2.5        2.9       2.7
SERVICES
SECUR & PROTECT                           29        19         48         0.1        0.1        0.1
SERVICES
SPORTING ACTIVITIES                      17          6         23         0.1        0.0        0.1
TELECOMMUNICATIONS                        5          9         14         0.0        0.0        0.0
TRANSPORT                              1075        652       1727         4.9        3.3        4.2
UTILITIES-                               15         16         31         0.1        0.1        0.1
GAS,ELECT,WATER
Total                                 21785      19594      41379      100.0      100.0      100.0

The geographical distribution of A8 migrants in the 9 largest industries (each with more than
1000 registrations in the West Midlands) is presented in Table 2.19. Agriculture dominates in

19
     This is likely to include a range of industries that recruitment agencies may be active in engaging
     workers for.


                                                   32
                                                             Migrant Workers in the West Midlands – Desk-based Study


the more rural areas, such as Herefordshire, while the health sector is very important in
particular locations, such as Bromsgrove and Oswestry.

Table 2.19: West Midlands - Largest industries by local authority district
                                                                                                                                                              Total




                                                                                               MANUFACTURIN
                                                     CONSTRUCTION




                                                                                                              Processing SBS
                                                                               HOSPITALITY &
                        MAN SERVICES

                                       AGRICULTURE
                        ADMIN, BUS &




                                                     & LAND SERV




                                                                                                                                          TRANSPORT
                                       ACTIVITIES




                                                                                                              Other Food
                                                                               CATERING
                                                                    HEALTH &

                                                                    SERVICES




                                                                                                                               SERVICES
                                                                                                                               RELATED
                                                                                                                               RETAIL &
                                                                    MEDICAL




                                                                                               G
Birmingham                  45.2            1.0             3.5       3.0          23.3             6.4               1.3          4.2                 5.7      6,063
Bridgnorth                  53.9           14.7             1.0       1.0          19.4             2.6               2.1          2.6                 0.0        191
Bromsgrove                  13.0            2.2             1.3      42.6          17.0            12.1               0.0          1.8                 6.7        223
Cannock Chase               30.3            0.0             9.1       4.0           8.0            20.6               1.1          6.9                19.4        175
Coventry                    62.6            0.9             1.6       5.9           6.7            10.6               0.6          5.3                 1.7      2,393
Dudley                      55.8            2.8             3.0       4.3          14.5             7.7               2.0          3.0                 2.3        737
East Staffordshire          49.8            0.4             7.1       2.7          13.8             9.7               5.4          5.0                 1.7      1,471
Herefordshire, County        8.8           75.7             1.6       1.4           2.4             5.2               1.5          0.9                 0.5      6,611
of
Lichfield                   46.8           38.4             1.9       2.8           3.8               1.9             1.6          0.4                 1.4      1,249
Malvern Hills                1.4           43.0             1.6      17.0          18.4               7.3             5.0          1.8                 2.3        440
Newcastle-under-            70.4            0.8             1.6       1.2           4.2               5.8             5.5          4.8                 2.8        641
Lyme
North Shropshire             5.4          29.8              3.4        2.8          5.4             9.8            12.7            1.3                 4.1        386
North Warwickshire          44.8           4.8              2.8        0.2         14.9            14.6             3.9            3.1                 8.0        979
Nuneaton and                76.9           0.6              3.3        1.3          2.0             5.0             0.9            5.2                 3.7        697
Bedworth
Oswestry                     2.2             3.4         25.8        22.5          15.7             7.9               1.1          2.2                14.6         89
Redditch                    58.4             0.9          1.6         3.5           6.2            17.2               4.9          1.7                 1.0      1,095
Rugby                       51.0             5.1          3.8         5.9          12.6            12.2               0.9          4.0                 2.1        867
Sandwell                    35.4             6.8          3.4         2.2           5.2            18.8               7.6          2.5                12.9      1,668
Shrewsbury and              62.0             5.5          0.9         8.8           9.7             3.8               2.9          0.5                 1.1        548
Atcham
Solihull                    17.5           0.1            1.7          2.8         58.8               3.2             0.7          5.3                 3.8        713
South Shropshire            20.2          34.5            0.6          8.0         20.2               3.6             4.2          2.1                 0.0        336
South Staffordshire          8.2          39.1           13.2          7.4          8.6               9.5             0.0          1.2                 9.1        243
Stafford                    10.1          61.9            3.6          4.0          8.7               7.5             0.3          1.7                 0.6        782
Staffordshire               18.1           2.7            5.7          4.6         24.6               7.0             1.4          0.8                 1.1        370
Moorlands
Stoke-on-Trent            82.8             0.1           1.2           2.6         1.4             5.0             0.7             0.9                  2.8      1,735
Stratford-on-Avon        19.6             36.9           2.0           2.8        21.2            10.0             0.9             1.6                  1.6      2,096
Tamworth                  61.4             0.0           2.0           2.9         6.7            12.2             2.3             5.5                  4.1        345
Telford and Wrekin        43.7             4.6           2.6          10.3         3.2            25.9             5.2             1.7                  1.2      1,408
Walsall                   54.3             0.3           3.8           1.3         1.6             7.1             0.4             3.7                 25.7      1,917
Warwick                   20.4             4.1           1.0           2.5        43.9             7.3             7.3             4.6                  3.4        592
Wolverhampton             64.8             6.4           3.6           0.5         4.7             6.8             2.9             2.5                  3.1      1,537
Worcester                 64.8             3.0           1.4           4.6        10.4             6.5             0.2             4.4                  2.3        566
Wychavon                  13.7            23.6           2.5           1.5        15.5            12.6            24.6             1.4                  1.9      1,847
Wyre Forest               41.5             1.1           4.1           7.6        11.7            28.2             0.3             3.8                  0.5        369
Total                   16165            8318          1144          1421        4750            3699            1359            1128                 1727      41379
Major Urban               46.7             2.4           3.4           2.4        16.8             8.1             2.2             3.6                  9.1    12,635
Large Urban               71.0             0.6           1.4           4.0         4.4             7.9             1.3             3.6                  2.2      4,769
Other Urban               57.6             2.3           2.3           5.5         5.1            16.2             3.5             3.0                  2.0      4,111
Significant Rural         37.4            13.1           4.6           6.3        15.4            10.7             2.9             3.5                  2.8      5,270
Rural-50                  17.4            59.4           1.9           2.3         5.4             5.9             1.9             1.1                  1.5      9,649
Rural-80                  17.3            29.7           2.6           3.0        17.6            10.2            10.9             1.6                  2.0      4,945




                                                                     33
                                            Migrant Workers in the West Midlands – Desk-based Study


2.2.6    Occupation

Regional occupational totals are calculated by summing occupational data across local
authority district. Note that in the data provided only the 10 largest occupations in any given
district were reported, so these figures will probably understate the true regional total in each
occupation. 20 Note that the Standard Occupational Classification is not used in WRS
reporting – information is provided on job titles.

Ten occupations accounted for 70.7% of all initial approvals (Table 2.20). The largest was
process operative (other factory work) accounting for over 10 thousand (24.2% of the total).
Farm workers and farm hands represented 10.7%, warehouse operatives 10.5% and
packers 7.5%. The distribution of occupations emphasises the predominance of less skilled
occupations, with WRS applicants, working in agriculture, food processing and packing. Low
skilled service sector jobs and jobs such as bus drivers also account for a large percentage
of WRS applicants.

Table 2.20: West Midlands - Top 10 occupations approved (N.B. summing across individual
local authorities)
Occupation                           May    2004/5   2006       May   2004/5   2006
                                    2004-                     2004-    (% of   (% of
                                     Dec                        Dec    total)  total)
                                    2006                       2006
                                                               (% of
                                                               total)
15 Process operative (other         10017     4949    5068       24.2    22.7    25.9
Factory work
03 Farm worker/ Farm hand            4445     2033    2412       10.7     9.3    12.3
17 Warehouse Operative               4336     1829    2507       10.5     8.4    12.8
01 Packer                            3083     1687    1396        7.5     7.7     7.1
03 Crop harvester                    1674     1128     546        4.0     5.2     2.8
01 Cleaner, domestic staff           1428      687     741        3.5     3.2     3.8
13 Kitchen and catering assistants   1356      750     606        3.3     3.4     3.1
03 Fruit picker (farming)            1060      585     475        2.6     2.7     2.4
20 Driver, bus                        978      644     334        2.4     3.0     1.7
13 Maid / Room attendant (hotel)      884      491     393        2.1     2.3     2.0

More detailed insights into the range of occupations identified are provided in Table 2.21.




20
     An additional FoI request has been submitted on the number of WRS registrations in each
     individual occupation in the West Midlands, but at the time of writing it remains unclear whether
     data will be provided. If such data are provided, this sub-section of the report will be updated for
     Final Reporting.


                                                   34
                                             Migrant Workers in the West Midlands – Desk-based Study


Table 2.21: West Midlands – all occupations (aggregated across all top ten occupations in
each local authority district)
ALL                                               Number                       Percentage
                                         May      2004/5    2006      May        2004/5     2006
                                        2004-                        2004-
                                         Dec                          Dec
                                        2006                         2006
01 Carpenter / joiner                        58       52        6        0.1         0.2       0.0
01 Cleaner, domestic staff                1428       687      741        3.5         3.2       3.8
01 Launderer, dry cleaner, presser         103        24       79        0.2         0.1       0.4
01 Mechanic                                   4        4                 0.0         0.0       0.0
01 Packer                                 3083      1687     1396        7.5         7.7       7.1
01 Painter and decorator                      5                 5       0.0          0.0       0.0
01 Window cleaner                             4        4                 0.0         0.0       0.0
02 Administrator, general                    86       46       40        0.2         0.2       0.2
02 Personal assistant                        52       25       27        0.1         0.1       0.1
03 Animal husbandry                           7        3        4        0.0         0.0       0.0
03 Crop harvester                         1674      1128      546        4.0         5.2       2.8
03 Farm worker/ Farm hand                 4445      2033     2412      10.7          9.3      12.3
03 Flower picker                             10        9        1        0.0         0.0       0.0
03 Fruit picker (farming)                 1060       585      475        2.6         2.7       2.4
04 Entertainer                               10        9        1       0.0          0.0       0.0
04 Leisure and theme park                    70       57       13        0.2         0.3       0.1
attendants
06 Labourer, building                      684       355      329        1.7         1.6       1.7
06 Skilled machine operator                  3         1        2        0.0         0.0       0.0
(construction)
08 Welder                                  103        46       57        0.2         0.2       0.3
10 Butcher / Meat cutter                    55        41       14        0.1         0.2       0.1
10 Food processing operative (fruit /      419       295      124        1.0         1.4       0.6
vegetables)
10 Food processing operative (meat)        254       116      138        0.6         0.5       0.7
12 Care assistants and home carers         580       288      292        1.4         1.3       1.5
12 Doctor (hospital)                        52                 52        0.1         0.0       0.3
12 Pharmacist / Pharmacologist              90        48       42        0.2         0.2       0.2
13 Bar staff                               302       217       85        0.7         1.0       0.4
13 Chef, other                              66        48       18        0.2         0.2       0.1
13 Hotel porter                             18        15        3        0.0         0.1       0.0
13 Kitchen and catering assistants        1356       750      606        3.3         3.4       3.1
13 Maid / Room attendant (hotel)           884       491      393        2.1         2.3       2.0
13 Waiter, waitress                        495       300      195        1.2         1.4       1.0
15 Process operative (electronic            23         8       15        0.1         0.0       0.1
equipment)
15 Process operative (other Factory      10017      4949     5068       24.2        22.7      25.9
work
15 Process operative (Textiles)             84        41       43        0.2         0.2       0.2
15 Welder                                   37        14       23        0.1         0.1       0.1
17 Sales and retail assistants             429       210      219        1.0         1.0       1.1
17 Warehouse Operative                    4336      1829     2507       10.5         8.4      12.8
18 Security Guard                           43        22       21        0.1         0.1       0.1
20 Driver, bus                             978       644      334        2.4         3.0       1.7
20 Driver, delivery van                     82        54       28        0.2         0.2       0.1
20 Driver, fork-lift                        21        13        8        0.1         0.1       0.0
20 Driver, HGV (Heavy Goods                251       174       77        0.6         0.8       0.4
Vehicle)
Others                                    7618      4463     3155       18.4        20.5      16.1
All                                      41379     21785    19594      100.0       100.0     100.0




                                                    35
                                       Migrant Workers in the West Midlands – Desk-based Study


2.3     Work Permits – the West Midlands picture

The information presented in this section relates to persons granted work permits (‘live
cases’), 2002-2006. This represents all people currently in the region entering between 2002
and 2006 who currently have the right to work in the UK. The data were obtained via
Freedom of Information request submitted to the Home Office (Work Permits UK). The data
are workplace-based, since it is the employer who applies for a Work Permit.

2.3.1   Nationality

Overall, 19,461 people were granted work permits in the West Midlands between 2002 and
2006 (Table 2.22). Their national origins were very diverse (note that Work Permits cover
non-EEA nationals only), with the most frequent 25 nationalities (out of 180 listed) having
over 115 work permits each and together accounting for 91.3% of the total.

Table 2.22: West Midlands – 25 largest nationalities of people granted work permits 2002-6
Nationality                        Total Percentage of people Cumulative %
                                          granted work permits
INDIA                              4896                    25.2          25.2
PHILIPPINES                        2708                    13.9          39.1
CHINA PEOPLES REPUBLIC OF          1440                     7.4          46.5
SOUTH AFRICA                       1337                     6.9          53.3
ZIMBABWE                           1281                     6.6          59.9
PAKISTAN                            856                     4.4          64.3
MALAYSIA                            686                     3.5          67.8
UNITED STATES OF AMERICA            536                     2.8          70.6
NIGERIA                             449                     2.3          72.9
AUSTRALIA                           440                     2.3          75.2
JAPAN                               417                     2.1          77.3
THAILAND                            371                     1.9          79.2
JAMAICA                             312                     1.6          80.8
ROMANIA                             259                     1.3          82.2
BANGLADESH                          246                     1.3          83.4
BULGARIA                            244                     1.3          84.7
GHANA                               207                     1.1          85.7
CANADA                              190                     1.0          86.7
KENYA                               145                     0.7          87.5
MAURITIUS                           138                     0.7          88.2
NEW ZEALAND                         133                     0.7          88.8
BRITISH NATIONAL OVERSEAS           124                     0.6          89.5
SRI LANKA                           123                     0.6          90.1
BELARUS                             115                     0.6          90.7
NEPAL                               115                     0.6          91.3
Total                             19461                   100.0

The most common nationalities were India, the Philippines, China, South Africa and
Zimbabwe with over 1000 work permits issued in each case, together accounting for three-
fifths of the total.

Countries of origin were classified into the Old and New Commonwealth, the rest of the
EU15, the A8 and A2 countries, the rest of Europe, east and south east Asia and the rest of
the world (Figure 2.8). The New Commonwealth accounts for nearly three-fifths of the total,
and the Philippines for 14%.




                                              36
                                                          Migrant Workers in the West Midlands – Desk-based Study


Figure 2.8: Broad national breakdown of people granted work permits


                                                 Rest of world
                                                     6%
                                            E/SE Asia
                                               3%


                              Phillipines
                                14%




                             China
                              7%
                                                                                     New Commonwealth
                                                                                           58%
                             USA
                             3%
             Eastern Europe & Turkey
                       2%
                                     A2
                                     3%
                                       A10
                                       0%
                           Old Comonwealth
                                 4%




2.3.2   Industry

The number of work permits by industry is presented in Table 2.23.

Table 2.23: West Midlands – industries of people granted work permits 2002-6
                                  Total Percentage Cumulative %
HEALTH & MEDICAL SERVICES         9428          48.4           48.4
HOSPITALITY & CATERING            2982          15.3           63.8
ADMIN, BUS & MAN SERVICES         1632           8.4           72.2
EDUCATION & CULTURAL ACT.         1304           6.7           78.9
MANUFACTURING                       734          3.8           82.6
ENT & LEISURE SERVICES              614          3.2           85.8
COMPUTER SERVICES                   559          2.9           88.7
CONSTRUCTION & LAND SERV            534          2.7           91.4
RETAIL & RELATED SERVICES           357          1.8           93.2
TRANSPORT                           282          1.4           94.7
FINANCIAL SERVICES                  209          1.1           95.8
GOVERNMENT                          172          0.9           96.6
TELECOMMUNICATIONS                  139          0.7           97.4
UTILITIES-GAS,ELECT,WATER            77          0.4           97.7
SPORTING ACTIVITIES                  72          0.4           98.1
Meat Processing SBS                  71          0.4           98.5
Hospitality – SBS                    67          0.3           98.8
AGRICULTURE ACTIVITIES               66          0.3           99.2
REAL EST & PROP SERVICES             54          0.3           99.4
EXTRACTION INDUSTRIES                38          0.2           99.6
SECUR & PROTECT SERVICES             34          0.2           99.8
LAW RELATED SERVICES                 32          0.2         100.0
Other Food Processing SBS             4          0.0         100.0
Fish Processing SBS                   0          0.0         100.0
Total                            19461         100.0




                                                                 37
                                       Migrant Workers in the West Midlands – Desk-based Study




The largest industries were in the health and medicine, hospitality & catering and
administration, business and management services sectors. In particular, this table
illustrates the important contribution of non-EEA migrants to the health sector in the region.

2.3.3   Occupation

Overall, data on work permit grants in 226 occupations was provided by the FoI request (the
full list is in Appendix A2.1). In only 100 were there more than 5 workers. The largest
occupations are nurses (underlining the contribution of migrants to the health sector
highlighted above), chefs, and other healthcare related occupations, together accounting for
more than half of all work permits (Table 2.24).

Table 2.24: West Midlands – 25 largest occupations of people granted work permits 2002-6
Occupations                          Total Percentage Cumulative %
NURSE                                6267         32.2           32.2
CHEF                                 1988         10.2           42.4
OTHR HEALTH/MEDICAL OCC              1807          9.3           51.7
OTHER MGR RELATED OCCUPAT            1344          6.9           58.6
OTHR ENGINEER OCCUPATION              924          4.7           63.4
TEACHER(SCHOOL/COLLEGE)               478          2.5           65.8
OTHER IT RELATED OCCUPAT              416          2.1           68.0
RESEARCHER                            390          2.0           70.0
DOCTOR                                386          2.0           71.9
SENIOR CARER                          384          2.0           73.9
PHARMACIST                            327          1.7           75.6
OTHER HOTEL CAT OCCS                  289          1.5           77.1
SECOND CHEF                           280          1.4           78.5
SOCIAL WORKER                         263          1.4           79.9
HEAD CHEF                             242          1.2           81.1
LECTURER ( UNIVERSITY)                222          1.1           82.3
RADIOGRAPHER                          221          1.1           83.4
SOFTWARE ENGINEER                     214          1.1           84.5
OTHR FINANCIAL OCCUPATION             182          0.9           85.4
MUSICIAN                              168          0.9           86.3
OTHR EDU/CULT OCCUPATION              144          0.7           87.0
WAITER/WAITRESS                       141          0.7           87.7
ACCOUNTANT                            124          0.6           88.4
RESTAURANT MANAGER                    116          0.6           89.0
PHYSIOTHERAPIST                       103          0.5           89.5
Total                               19461        100.0

2.3.4   Geographical variations in national origins

Tables 2.25 and 2.26 present the national origins of work permit applicants in each local
authority district, grouped into broad regions of the world. The New Commonwealth is the
dominant origin, especially in the most urbanised parts of the region, and in manufacturing
towns such as Rugby and Stafford. This percentage is lowest in the more remote and rural
areas such as Wyre Forest or Bridgnorth. Workers from the Old Commonwealth are most
common in Shrewsbury and Stratford. People from A2 countries (i.e. Bulgaria and Romania)
are mainly located in Birmingham and East Staffordshire, and most people from China, east
and south east Asia and the Philippines in Birmingham. People from the Philippines form a
very high percentage of the total in a number of areas, presumably reflecting NHS
recruitment (e.g. in Stoke-on-Trent, Sandwell and the Malvern Hills).



                                             38
                                                                                            Migrant Workers in the West Midlands – Desk-based Study
Table 2.25: West Midlands – regional origins of persons granted work permits by local authority district
                              New         Old      A10         A2    Eastern       USA       China    Philippines   E/SE    Rest of    Total
                           Common     Common                        Europe &                                         Asia    world
                             wealth     wealth                        Turkey
Birmingham                   3,561        199        29        99         70        141        512           827     111       298     5,847
Bridgnorth                      33          2         0         7          0          0         13            12       0         8        75
Bromsgrove                     174          5         0         1          1          0         24            44       0         9       258
Cannock Chase                   50          8         0         3          0          3         17             0       1         0        82
Coventry                     1,009        107         3        21         36         78        126           206      56       137     1,779
Dudley                         259         10         0         0          4         18         62            38       9        24       424
East Staffordshire             230         10         0        83          3         10         20            50       1        20       427
Herefordshire, County of       237          7         4        27          3          6         18            86       1        35       424
Lichfield                      123          5         1        17          4          4         26            10       8        19       217
Malvern Hills                  116          4         0         5          5          5          8            62       2         8       215
Newcastle-under-Lyme           103         13         0         5          3          8         24            24      26        25       231
North Shropshire               101          0         0        34          1          2         13            40       1         3       195
North Warwickshire             131          6         0         5          5          8         19            19      27         2       222
Nuneaton and Bedworth          230         12         0         2          5          6         14             3       6        16       294
Oswestry                        37          2         0         7          0          1          1            10       0         5        63
Redditch                       173          7         0         1          0         17         10             6       9        21       244
Rugby                          170         13         0         6          4         24          6             0       7        20       250
Sandwell                       729         11         0         4          4         31         66           173      15        31     1,064
Shrewsbury and Atcham          171         38         1         5          2          7         13            64       5         8       314
Solihull                       343         33         0         7         11         49         60            10      94        34       641
South Shropshire                44          0         0         5         17          2          8            20       0         7       103
South Staffordshire            223          4         0         1          0          1         14            13       0         6       262
Stafford                       251         13         1         6          7          8         21            10       3        14       334
Staffordshire Moorlands         54          2         0        20          2          0          6            16       0         7       107
Stoke-on-Trent                 456         13         1        19          3          7         71           405       3        37     1,015
Stratford-on-Avon              292         90         6        30          6         19         31            72       6        69       621
Tamworth                        32          5         0         0          0          2         15             0       0         4        58
Telford and Wrekin             171         44         1        11        113          5         43            22      95        15       520
Walsall                        406          9         1         0          0          9         46            60       2        24       557
Warwick                        467         50         4        14         12         36         40            90      14       114       841
Wolverhampton                  544          8         1         7          5         13         39           173       4        39       833
Worcester                      318         17         0        14          4          5         30           106      29        31       554
Wychavon                       115         11         1        28          4          5         15            20      22        29       250
Wyre Forest                     59          5         0         9          1          6          9            17       1        33       140
Total                       11,412        763        54       503        335        536      1,440         2,708     558     1,152    19,461

                                                                        39
                                                                                            Migrant Workers in the West Midlands – Desk-based Study
Table 2.26: West Midlands – regional origins of persons granted work permits by local authority district (percentages)
Nationality                   New         Old      A10         A2    Eastern       USA      China   Philippine    E/SE     Rest of     Total
                           Common     Common                        Europe &                                 s     Asia     world
                             wealth     wealth                        Turkey
Birmingham                     60.9        3.4      0.5       1.7        1.2        2.4       8.8        14.1       1.9       5.1      5,847
Bridgnorth                     44.0        2.7      0.0       9.3        0.0        0.0      17.3        16.0       0.0      10.7         75
Bromsgrove                     67.4        1.9      0.0       0.4        0.4        0.0       9.3        17.1       0.0       3.5        258
Cannock Chase                  61.0        9.8      0.0       3.7        0.0        3.7      20.7         0.0       1.2       0.0         82
Coventry                       56.7        6.0      0.2       1.2        2.0        4.4       7.1        11.6       3.1       7.7      1,779
Dudley                         61.1        2.4      0.0       0.0        0.9        4.2      14.6         9.0       2.1       5.7        424
East Staffordshire             53.9        2.3      0.0      19.4        0.7        2.3       4.7        11.7       0.2       4.7        427
Herefordshire, County of       55.9        1.7      0.9       6.4        0.7        1.4       4.2        20.3       0.2       8.3        424
Lichfield                      56.7        2.3      0.5       7.8        1.8        1.8      12.0         4.6       3.7       8.8        217
Malvern Hills                  54.0        1.9      0.0       2.3        2.3        2.3       3.7        28.8       0.9       3.7        215
Newcastle-under-Lyme           44.6        5.6      0.0       2.2        1.3        3.5      10.4        10.4      11.3      10.8        231
North Shropshire               51.8        0.0      0.0      17.4        0.5        1.0       6.7        20.5       0.5       1.5        195
North Warwickshire             59.0        2.7      0.0       2.3        2.3        3.6       8.6         8.6      12.2       0.9        222
Nuneaton and Bedworth          78.2        4.1      0.0       0.7        1.7        2.0       4.8         1.0       2.0       5.4        294
Oswestry                       58.7        3.2      0.0      11.1        0.0        1.6       1.6        15.9       0.0       7.9         63
Redditch                       70.9        2.9      0.0       0.4        0.0        7.0       4.1         2.5       3.7       8.6        244
Rugby                          68.0        5.2      0.0       2.4        1.6        9.6       2.4         0.0       2.8       8.0        250
Sandwell                       68.5        1.0      0.0       0.4        0.4        2.9       6.2        16.3       1.4       2.9      1,064
Shrewsbury and Atcham          54.5       12.1      0.3       1.6        0.6        2.2       4.1        20.4       1.6       2.5        314
Solihull                       53.5        5.1      0.0       1.1        1.7        7.6       9.4         1.6      14.7       5.3        641
South Shropshire               42.7        0.0      0.0       4.9       16.5        1.9       7.8        19.4       0.0       6.8        103
South Staffordshire            85.1        1.5      0.0       0.4        0.0        0.4       5.3         5.0       0.0       2.3        262
Stafford                       75.1        3.9      0.3       1.8        2.1        2.4       6.3         3.0       0.9       4.2        334
Staffordshire Moorlands        50.5        1.9      0.0      18.7        1.9        0.0       5.6        15.0       0.0       6.5        107
Stoke-on-Trent                 44.9        1.3      0.1       1.9        0.3        0.7       7.0        39.9       0.3       3.6      1,015
Stratford-on-Avon              47.0       14.5      1.0       4.8        1.0        3.1       5.0        11.6       1.0      11.1        621
Tamworth                       55.2        8.6      0.0       0.0        0.0        3.4      25.9         0.0       0.0       6.9         58
Telford and Wrekin             32.9        8.5      0.2       2.1       21.7        1.0       8.3         4.2      18.3       2.9        520
Walsall                        72.9        1.6      0.2       0.0        0.0        1.6       8.3        10.8       0.4       4.3        557
Warwick                        55.5        5.9      0.5       1.7        1.4        4.3       4.8        10.7       1.7      13.6        841
Wolverhampton                  65.3        1.0      0.1       0.8        0.6        1.6       4.7        20.8       0.5       4.7        833
Worcester                      57.4        3.1      0.0       2.5        0.7        0.9       5.4        19.1       5.2       5.6        554
Wychavon                       46.0        4.4      0.4      11.2        1.6        2.0       6.0         8.0       8.8      11.6        250
Wyre Forest                    42.1        3.6      0.0       6.4        0.7        4.3       6.4        12.1       0.7      23.6        140
Total                          58.6        3.9      0.3       2.6        1.7        2.8       7.4        13.9       2.9       5.9     19,461


                                                                        40
                                                                                           Migrant Workers in the West Midlands – Desk-based Study
Appendix A2.1: West Midlands: Occupations in which 5 or more people have work permits
Occupation                        Number   Occupation                        Number   Occupation                          Number
NURSE                               6267   DANCER (OTHER)                        49   SYSTEM ANALYST                          14
CHEF                                1988   ELECTRICAL/ELECTRONIC ENG             48   HOSPITAL CONSULTANT                     13
OTHR HEALTH/MEDICAL OCC             1807   RESEARCHERS-SPONSORED                 47   Meat Bone Extractor - SBS               13
OTHER MGR RELATED OCCUPAT           1344   OTHR AGRICULTURAL OCCUP               46   AUDITING                                12
OTHR ENGINEER OCCUPATION             924   OTHER LEGAL OCCUPATION                45   COMPUTER PROGRAMMER                     12
TEACHER(SCHOOL/COLLEGE)              478   Meat Cutter - SBS                     44   OTHR SPORTS RELATED OCCUP               12
OTHER IT RELATED OCCUPAT             416   SENIOR HOUSE OFFICER                  43   COMPUTER ENGINEER                       11
RESEARCHER                           390   ARCHITECT                             40   DENTAL NURSE                            11
DOCTOR                               386   PSYCHIATRIST                          39   GP Registrar                            11
SENIOR CARER                         384   Meat Process Operative-SBS            37   DATABASE SPECIALIST                     10
PHARMACIST                           327   MECHANICAL ENGINEER                   34   RECEPTIONIST                            10
OTHER HOTEL CAT OCCS                 289   MEDICAL PRACTITIONER                  33   ARCHITECTURAL TECHNICIAN                 9
SECOND CHEF                          280   ANALYST PROGRAMMER                    32   MIDWIFE                                  9
SOCIAL WORKER                        263   JOCKEY (WORK RIDER)                   29   FARM WORKER                              8
HEAD CHEF                            242   RAILWAY ENGINEER                      29   PERSONNEL/TRAINING MGR                   8
LECTURER ( UNIVERSITY)               222   VETERINARY SURGEON                    29   FOOTBALL PLAYER                          7
RADIOGRAPHER                         221   GENERAL MANAGER                       26   ICE HOCKEY PLAYER                        7
SOFTWARE ENGINEER                    214   FOUNDATION PROGRAMME DR               24   Kitchen Assistant - SBS                  7
OTHR FINANCIAL OCCUPATION            182   ASSISTANT DENTIST                     23   POLO GROOM                               7
MUSICIAN                             168   BIOMEDICAL SCIENTIST                  23   PURCHASING MANAGER                       7
OTHR EDU/CULT OCCUPATION             144   BUSINESS ANALYST                      23   TRANSPORT & HIGHWAYS ENG                 7
WAITER/WAITRESS                      141   HOTEL MANAGER                         22   ACTUARY                                  6
ACCOUNTANT                           124   SKILLED CRAFTSMEN                     22   CATERING MANAGER                         6
RESTAURANT MANAGER                   116   OCCUPATIONAL THERAPIST                20   CRICKET PLAYER                           6
PHYSIOTHERAPIST                      103   OPTICIAN                              20   DIETICIAN                                6
MARKETING/SALES MANAGER               99   IT MANAGER                            19   LAWYER                                   6
OTHER CONSTRUCT/LAND OCCS             99   TEACHER FOREIGN CIRC                  19   MANAGER (ENT RELATED)                    6
SINGER                                96   ACTOR (THEATRE)                       18   SOLICITOR                                6
OTHR TRANSPORT RELATE OCC             82   FASHION (OTHR RELATE OCC)             18   AUDIOLOGIST                              5
SURVEYOR                              81   DANCER (BALLET)                       16   Cleaner of Premises - SBS                5
CIVIL/STRUCTURAL ENGINEER             66   Electronic Engineer                   16   RAIL ENG (TRANS/H'WAY)                   5
DENTAL SURGEON                        65   NETWORK SPECIALIST                    16   TRADER                                   5
PROJECT MANAGER                       53   OTHR ENT RELATED OCCUP                14
SPECIALIST REGISTRAR                  51   RUGBY UNION PLAYER                    14




                                                                        41
                                            Migrant Workers in the West Midlands – Desk-based Study


2.4       Other Schemes: Sector Based Schemes and the Seasonal Agricultural
          Workers Scheme

As noted in 1.1.2, migration policy is subject to review. This is especially the case for Sector
Based Schemes (SBS) and the Seasonal Agricultural Workers Scheme (SAWS) which
target less skilled workers and which have been reviewed in the light of EU expansion and
are increasingly being focused on Bulgarian and Romanian nationals (see 1.1.3). These
SBS is managed by Work Permits (UK) and some SBS workers from A8 countries are
covered in WRS data.

Given its focus on agriculture, the SAWS is especially important in rural areas. It is subject to
a strict annual quota – set at 16,250 places in 2007 (compared with 25,000 in 2004), 21 of
which 40% are allocated to Bulgarian and Romanian nationals. The remaining 60% is
reserved for students from non-EEA countries. A small number of licensed operators run the
scheme in the UK. They recruit workers and place them in farms. SAWS workers are
expected to return home at the end of their period of work, but there is no means of ensuring
that they do so and no data on the number who do not return. There is a lack of data on the
Scheme and so analysis is difficult: a point highlighted in a position paper by the Association
of Labour Providers (undated). The most recent data available is from provisional
management information provided in a written answer from the Minister of State at the Home
Office (dated 22 January 2007) in response to a Parliamentary Question regarding how
many participants there were in SAWS in each of the last 5 years. It shows that the numbers
of work cards issued to foreign nationals in the UK 22 under the SAWS were 20,557 in 2004,
15,610 in 2005 and 16,178 in 2006. The national groups accounting for the largest numbers
of workers were Ukraine, Bulgaria, Russia, Romania and Belarus.




21
      The quota has been cut to reflect the enlarged EU.
22
      The data are not disaggregated by region.


                                                  42
                                                Migrant Workers in the West Midlands – Desk-based Study



PART 3 – MIGRANT EMPLOYMENT AND ITS LABOUR MARKET
AND ECONOMIC IMPACTS IN THE WEST MIDLANDS
This part of the report primarily uses data from the Labour Force Survey to examine patterns
of migrant employment. It also assesses the changing unemployment of UK nationals in the
context of an increase in migration and the impact of migration on vacancies and on
earnings. Finally, it assesses the contribution of migrants to GVA.

3.1       Data and Methods

3.1.1     Defining Migrant Workers

For the purposes of the analysis that follows a migrant worker is distinguished from a UK-national
worker. This is done by defining a migrant worker based on nationality. A migrant worker is
somebody of:

          non-UK nationality23

It is the case that different cohorts of migrants are important in terms of policy implications.
The focus in terms of the policy debate is on recent economic migrants, and in particular on
migrants entering the UK from 2002 onwards. For the purposes of the analysis, migrants are
divided into two groups based on year of arrival into the UK. This is done using the CAMEYR
(year of arrival) marker in the Labour Force Survey (LFS). When undertaking the analysis we
identify two separate sub-groups of workers based on year of arrival into the UK. We also
analyse data for the working population as a whole. This gives us three groups upon which
we focus:

      •   Economic migrants (non-UK nationals) arriving from 2002 onwards [referred to as post
          2002]

      •   Economic migrants (non-UK nationals) arriving from 1991 onwards [referred to as post
          1991]

      •   All Economic migrants (non-UK nationals) of working age (16 – 64 (59 for women))
          irrespective of year of arrival.

3.1.2     Merged LFS Master Dataset

The analysis of migrant employment is based on analysis of individuals working in the West
Midlands. It is based on all individuals entering the UK Labour Force Survey (LFS) between
spring 2001 and summer 2006. A primary aim of the analysis is to use the latest available
information on migrant employment, whilst spring 2001 LFS is a natural starting point for the
analysis since at this point the classification of occupation changes to the new SOC 2000
standard.

The Labour Force Survey (LFS) is based on a sample survey of households in the UK and is
organised on a rolling cohort basis. An individual enters the survey is tracked for 5
successive quarters and then leaves (in this way one fifth of the LFS sample leaves the
survey each quarter and the sample is replenished by incorporating a new wave of people).
Once weighted, by applying re-grossing weights, each quarterly LFS provides consistent
estimates of UK / regional employment.


23
      This is as opposed to country of birth.


                                                      43
                                         Migrant Workers in the West Midlands – Desk-based Study


For the purposes of the analysis, we create a merged dataset of LFS files over this period,
taking care not to double count individuals. The purpose of the merged dataset is to
maximise sample size, which is an important consideration when estimating migrant
employment at a fairly disaggregated level. The merged dataset allows a quasi cross
sectional analysis, creating a composite picture over the period 2001-2006. The analysis of
employment should therefore be treated as a quasi-snapshot based on average employment
during this period. In addition to this, however, we used information from the individual LFS
datasets to paint a picture of emerging trends over time.

In practice the merged database is created by merging every 5th quarterly LFS since spring
2001. The analysis is weighted using the respective weights assigned to individuals within
their respective survey. The final merged master dataset contains the following LFS files:

•    2001 June – August
•    2002 September – November
•    2003 December – February (2004)
•    2005 March – May
•    2006 July – September (Quarter 3) 24

The merged master dataset contains a total maximum sample size for the West Midlands
region of 56,452 individuals, of which 2,337 are migrants. Restricting the analysis to those in
employment, we have the following maximum sample sizes numbers of migrant workers:

•    952 migrant workers;
•    590 migrant workers arriving during or after 1991 (referred to as post-1991 migrants);
•    266 migrant workers arriving during or after 2002 (referred to as post-2002 migrants). 25

It is noted that such small sample numbers restrict in part the scope of any statistical
analysis. Consequently much of the detailed comparisons of migrant and UK-national
employment are restricted to the widest definition of migrants rather than sub-dividing by
cohorts. Further, as a note of caution, small sample numbers (especially at detailed sector or
occupation level) mean that figures quoted in the report may be subject to large standard
errors and should be treated as indicative only.




24
     Note that after March 2006 the LFS changed the system of timing. The LFS quarters are now
     based on standard calendar quarters.
25
     For obvious reasons there are no such migrants in the 2001 survey.


                                               44
                                          Migrant Workers in the West Midlands – Desk-based Study


3.2     Patterns of Migrant Employment

Table 3.1 summarises the (weighted) estimates of migrant employment in the West Midlands
region based on the quarterly LFS estimates. The figures show increasing migrant
employment over the period, with migrant employment in the region totalling approximately
122,000 by summer 2006, just under a half a which (approximately 54,000) were migrants
who had entered the UK during or after 2002.

Table 3.1     Estimates of Migrant Employment in the West Midlands
LFS Dataset       Total Employment Migrant Employment
                                      All             Post 1991                  Post 2002
2001 Jun – Aug    2,423,000           93,000   3.8% 28,000 1.2%                  -
2002 Sep – Nov 2,454,000              81,000   3.3% 40,000 1.6%                  5,000   0.2%
2003 Dec – Feb 2,438,000              85,000   3.5% 51,000 2.1%                  11,000 0.5%
2005 Mar – May 2,467,000              85,000   3.4% 49,000 2.0%                  22,000 0.9%
2006 Jul – Sep    2,472,000           122,000 4.9% 86,000 3.5%                   54,000 2.2%
Notes: (1) Weighted employment estimates rounded to the nearest thousand; (2) Percentage figures
show migrant employment as a percentage of all employment.

3.2.1   Defining Migrant Dense Areas of Work

The aim of this section is to define ‘migrant dense’ areas of work. These are either industries
or occupations (treated separately) where migrant workers have a greater propensity to be
employed than their UK-national counterparts. In order to operationalise this definition, we
define the following concepts.

An area of work is defined as an industry or occupation, where migrant employment is
mapped on both dimensions, in turn, using the following classifications of industry and
occupation. Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) industry of employment using:
   • Industry sector (a 17-fold classification); and
   • Industry division (a 59-fold classification)

Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) occupation of employment using:
    • Sub-major group, or 2 digit, SOC2000 (an 25-fold classification)
    • Minor group, or 3 digit, SOC2000 (an 81-fold classification)

Density of employment by area of work is defined as the percentage of a particular
population sub-group (i.e. migrants or UK-national) in employment who are employed within
sector/occupation i. Density of employment (per sector and occupation) is calculated
separately for UK-national and migrant workers, giving us separate measures of density of
employment for each group per sector or occupation of employment. The respective
densities of employment are denoted: e (i, UK-national); and e (i, migrant).

Using these figures a migrant dense area of work is defined as a sector or occupation in
which the density of employment amongst migrant workers, e (i, migrant), is greater than the
density of employment amongst UK-national workers, e (i, UK-national). I.e. where:

e (i, migrant ) > e (i, UK - national )

Using this definition, a list of migrant dense areas of work is arrived at by industry and
occupation. The analysis is also repeated for sub-groups of the migrant population,
depending on when they entered the UK.



                                                45
                                           Migrant Workers in the West Midlands – Desk-based Study


We use definitions of migrant workers based on post-1991 and post-2002 year of arrival into
the UK. In order to operationalise the definitions we describe a sector as being Migrant
Dense (MD from now on) if the density of employment amongst migrant workers is greater
than the density of employment amongst UK-national workers for both post-1991 and post-
2002 defined migrant groups. The rationale for basing the definition on both post-1991 and
post-2002 migrant groups was to maximise sample size available (see 3.1.2 for details) for
the analyses and to minimise sampling error. It is salient to note that according to the LFS
MD sectors have not changed vastly over the period from 1991 – and certainly not in the
larger industries and occupations. There are some marginal cases (i.e. MD in one period but
not in the other) and here sampling error in the LFS may be a factor. It should also be noted
that the LFS is not a good source for capturing migrants of the type who are likely to be
particularly important in a sector such as agriculture; hence this does not emerge as a MD
sector in the post-2002 or the earlier period.

In addition to defining migrant dense areas of work we are also interested in how patterns of
employment are changing across migrant cohorts and to what extent sectors are become
more or less migrant dense, in terms of patterns of employment. To this end we compare
density of migrant employment for all migrants and using post-1991 and post-2002
definitions.

3.2.2   Migrant Dense Industries in the West Midlands

The classification of migrant dense industries undertaken is based in turn on the coarse
industry sector (17-fold classification of industry) and more detailed industry division (59-fold
classification of industry). Table 3.2 identifies industries which are classified as being Migrant
Dense (MD) in the West Midlands region. The table is restricted to industry sectors which
are migrant dense based on all migrants, but also indicates whether these are MD areas of
work for post-1991 and post-2002 using the same methodology.

In total we find that 5 of 17 industries are classified as being Migrant Dense (MD) areas of
work, based on all migrants. The MD sectors are spread across the whole of the economy,
including manufacturing and private and public service sector based activities. These sectors
account in total for 59% of all migrant employment (65% of post-1991 migrant employment
and 71% of post-2002 migrant employment). This is compared to only 42.5% of employment
of UK-nationals. The increasing proportion of employment within these sectors for post-2001
and post-2002 migrants indicates an increasing concentration of migrant employment in
particular areas of work.

Table 3.2       Migrant Dense Industry Sectors (% of employment by group)
                                                               Migrant Employment
Industry Sector                               UK-nationals     All       Post 1991        Post 2002
D: Manufacturing                              19.9             23.3    *   21.7       *   25.7        *
H: Hotels & Restaurants                       3.9              8.1     *   8.7        *   9.7         *
I: Transport, Storage & Communication         6.8              7.6     *   8.8        *   8.9         *
N: Health & Social Work                       11.6             19.8    *   25.3       *   26.0        *
P: Private Households                         0.3              0.6     *   1.0        *   0.7         *

All MD industry sectors                        42.5            59.4         65.4          71.0
All sectors                                    100             100          100           100
Note: (1) * Indicates a migrant dense sector with respect to the particular migrant (sub) group; (2) The
analysis is restricted to the West Midlands region based on place of work

Table 3.3 repeats this analysis for the more detailed classification of industry. Analysing
industry division, we find that 19 of 59 industries are classified as being Migrant Dense (MD)



                                                  46
                                           Migrant Workers in the West Midlands – Desk-based Study


areas of work, based on an analysis of all migrants. In combination these sectors account for
56% of all migrant employment (61% of post-1991 migrant employment and 67% of post-
2002 migrant employment). This is compared to only 33% of employment of UK-nationals.

Table 3.3       Migrant Dense Industry Divisions (% of employment by group)
                                                    Migrants
Industry Division (SIC)              UK-nationals All        Post 1991 Post 2002
15:Food,Beverage Manufacture         1.5            4.2  * 5.9       * 8.5     *
17:Textile Manufacture               0.3            0.7  * 0.4       * 0
18:Clothing,Fur Manufacture          0.2            1.2  * 0.3       * 0
19:Leather,Leather Manufacture       0.1            0.2  * 0.2       * 0
21:Pulp,Paper,Paper Manufacture      0.2            0.2  * 0.2       * 0
27:Basic Metals Manufacture          1.0            1.0  * 0.4         0
29:Mach,Eqt Manufacture              2.3            2.5  * 2.0         2.3     *
32:Radio,Tv,Communications           0.4            0.5  * 0.9       * 0.9     *
33:Medical,Precision,Optical Manuf. 0.4             0.7  * 0.6       * 1.5     *
34:Motor Vehicle Manufacture         3.5            5.4  * 4.5       * 6.2     *
36:Furniture Etc Manufacture         0.9            1.2  * 1.3       * 1.3     *
41:Water Collection, Purification    0.3            0.4  * 0.4       * 0
55:Hotels,Restaurants                3.9            8.1  * 8.7       * 9.7     *
60:Transport By Land                 2.4            3.3  * 2.9       * 2.3
63:Aux Transport Activities          2.0            3.0  * 3.9       * 4.2     *
85:Health,Social Work                11.6           19.8 * 25.3      * 26.0    *
91:Activities Of Memberships Orgs    0.7            0.9  * 0.9       * 0
93:Other Service Activities          1.3            1.5  * 1.4       * 3.0     *
95:Private Households                0.3            0.6  * 1.0       * 0.7     *

Total MD industry division                33.1               55.5      60.9           66.6
All sectors                               100                100       100            100
Note: (1) * Indicates a migrant dense sector with respect to the particular migrant (sub) group; (2) The
analysis is restricted to the West Midlands region based on place of work; (3) A number of ‘zero’ totals
appear in relation to migrant employment (post 2002). This is the result of no post 2002 migrant
workers appearing in the LFS survey. In reality the small percentages are subject to large standard
errors due to very small sample numbers in the LFS when disaggregated at this level.

The increasing proportion of employment within these MD sectors for post-1991 and post-
2002 migrants again indicates an increasing concentration of migrant employment in
particular industries. Whilst all of the industries listed in the table are MD based on the
comparison of patterns of employment of migrant and UK-nationals, we note that some of
these industries are rather small employers in absolute terms. It is therefore worth noting the
main industries of migrant employment based on magnitude of employment. The top four
industries of employment are, in descending ranked order based on percentage of migrant
employment:

•   Health & social work                 (19.8% of migrant employment; 26.0%
                                         for post-2002 migrants)
•   Hotels & restaurants                 (8.1% of migrant employment; 9.7%
                                         for post-2002 migrants)
•   Motor vehicle manufacture            (5.4% of migrant employment; 6.2%
                                         for post-2002 migrants)
•   Food & beverage manufacture          (4.2% of migrant employment; 8.5%
                                         for post-2002 migrants)




                                                  47
                                       Migrant Workers in the West Midlands – Desk-based Study


In combination these four industries account for 37.6% of all migrant employment in the
West Midlands; and a much higher 50.1% of employment of post-2002 migrants.


3.2.3   Migrant Dense Occupations

The classification of migrant dense occupations is undertaken based in turn on the more
coarse (sub major SOC) and finer (minor SOC) classification of occupations, with 25 and 81
total categories respectively.

Table 3.4 identifies occupations which are classified as being Migrant Dense (MD), based on
the percentage employment of all migrants, but also repeating the analysis for post-1991
and post-2002 migrants. The table shows the compares the respective densities of
employment compared to UK-national workers. In total we find that 9 of the 25 SOC sub-
major group occupations can be classified as being Migrant Dense (MD) areas of work
based on all migrant employment. These occupations, in total, account for only 56% of
employment of all migrants (63% of post-1991 migrant employment and 71% of post-2002
migrant employment). This compares with only 34% of employment of UK-national workers.

This analysis is repeated in Table 3.5 for minor group occupation. In total we find that 28 of
the 81 SOC minor group occupations can be classified as being Migrant Dense (MD) areas
of work based on all migrant employment. These occupations, in total, also account for only
56% of employment of all migrants (63% of post-1991 migrant employment and 71% of post-
2002 migrant employment). This compares with only 30% of employment of UK-national
workers.

Whilst all of the occupations listed in the table are MD based on the comparison of patterns
of employment of migrant and UK-nationals, we note that some of these occupations are
small employers in absolute terms. We therefore note the main occupations of migrant
employment based on (descending) ranked order based on percentage of migrant
employment. The five main occupations of migrant employment are:

•   321: Health Associate Professionals             (6.0% of migrant employment;
                                                    8.2% for post-2002 migrants)
•   611: Healthcare, Related Personal Services      (5.7% of migrant employment;
                                                    9.1% for post-2002 migrants)
•   813: Assemblers and Routine Operatives          (4.2% of migrant employment;
                                                    5.4% for post-2002 migrants)
•   923: Elementary Cleaning Occupations            (4.2% of migrant employment;
                                                    5.4% for post-2002 migrants)
•   221: Health Professionals                       (4.1% of migrant employment;
                                                    2.9% for post-2002 migrants)
•   811: Process Operatives                         (4.1% of migrant employment;
                                                    6.9% for post-2002 migrants)

The analysis of occupations reveals a notable bi-polarisation of migrant workers by major
group occupation (i.e. the first digit of the SOC2000 code), with employment of migrant
workers tending towards both the upper and lower part of the skills spectrum. Many of the
MD occupations are either professional or associate professional occupations (SOC major
group 2 or 3, respectively). These include in particular professional activities relating to
health, but also to business, ICT and so on. At the other end of the spectrum we observe a
clustering of migrant dense sectors amongst process and elementary occupations (SOC
major groups 8 and 9). These are routine and low skilled jobs in areas such as plant and
machine operatives or in cleaning, security and sales.



                                             48
                                           Migrant Workers in the West Midlands – Desk-based Study


Table 3.4       Migrant Dense 2-digit Occupations (% of employment by group)
                                                                       Migrant Employment
Occupation (2 digit SOC)                                  UK-          All      Post 1991 Post 2002
                                                          nationals
12   Managers & Proprietors in Agric. and Services        2.8         4.1    *   2.2           1.2
22   Health Professionals                                 0.7         4.1    *   6.0       *   2.9         *
31   Science & Technology Associate Professionals         1.6         1.8    *   2.2       *   1.5
32   Health & Social Welfare Associate Professionals      3.4         7.2    *   9.5       *   9.4         *
54   Textiles, Printing and Other Skilled Trades          2.1         4.0    *   4.4       *   3.0         *
61   Caring Personal Service Occupations                  5.6         7.0    *   8.2       *   11.3        *
81   Process, Plant & Machine Operatives                  5.4         11.3   *   11.0      *   16.1        *
91   Elementary Trades, Plant, Storage Related            4.1         5.8    *   7.0       *   7.0         *
92   Elementary Administration & Service Occupations      8.3         10.6   *   12.4      *   18.3        *

Total MD Sub-major group occupations                      34.0        55.8       62.8          70.7
All occupations                                           100         100        100           100
Note: (1) * Indicates a migrant dense occupation with respect to the particular migrant (sub) group; (2)
The analysis is restricted to the West Midlands region based on place of work

Finally, comparing cohorts of migrant, we note that migrant employment is increasingly
concentrated in these occupations listed. Further, we note higher proportions of recent post-
2002 migrants employed in the lower skilled areas of employment. Comparing the
percentage of employment of post-2002 migrants with all migrants by occupation in Table
3.5, we find increasing shares of employment in areas of health and IT (e.g. amongst ICT
professionals and Health associate professionals). However, most notable is the increase in
employment in process and elementary occupations (SOC major groups 8 and 9) compared
with earlier cohorts. In this respect, all of the following occupations are becoming increasing
migrant dense – i.e. taking up larger proportions of migrant employment:

•    Process Operatives
•    Plant And Machine Operatives
•    Assemblers And Routine Operatives
•    Elementary Goods Storage Occupations
•    Elementary Personal Services Occupations
•    Elementary Cleaning Occupations
•    Elementary Security Occupations
•    Elementary Sales Occupations

The evidence of higher concentration of recent migrants in the West Midlands in lower
skilled employment is supported in research at the national level by Salt et al. (2006).




                                                  49
                                           Migrant Workers in the West Midlands – Desk-based Study


Table 3.5       Migrant Dense 3-digit Occupations (% of employment by group)
                                                                       Migrant Employment

Occupation (3 digit SOC)                                  UK-          All       Post 1991     Post 2002
                                                          nationals
117   Protective Service Officers                         0.1         0.2    *   0.0           0.0
122   Managers & Proprietors In Hospitality & Leisure     0.9         2.3    *   1.6       *   1.2         *
211   Science Professionals                               0.3         0.4    *   0.5       *   0.0
213   Information & Communication Technology Profs.       1.2         1.3    *   2.1       *   1.7         *
221   Health Professionals                                0.7         4.1    *   6.0       *   2.9         *
244   Public Service Professionals                        0.5         0.9    *   1.4       *   2.3         *
311   Science And Engineering Technicians                 0.8         0.9    *   1.1       *   0.7
313   IT Service Delivery Occupations                     0.5         0.7    *   0.7       *   0.8         *
321   Health Associate Professionals                      2.2         6.0    *   8.1       *   8.2         *
322   Therapists                                          0.4         0.5    *   0.6       *   0.6         *
342   Design Associate Professionals                      0.4         0.4    *   0.2           0.0
351   Transport Associate Professionals                   0.1         0.2    *   0.0           0.0
541   Textiles And Garments Trades                        0.2         0.3    *   0.2           0.0
543   Food Preparation Trades                             1.0         3.1    *   3.9       *   2.4         *
611   Healthcare And Related Personal Services            3.2         5.7    *   6.7       *   9.1         *
623   Housekeeping Occupations                            0.4         0.6    *   0.2           0.0
712   Sales Related Occupations                           0.8         0.9    *   0.5           0.0
811   Process Operatives                                  1.3         4.1    *   5.2       *   6.9         *
812   Plant And Machine Operatives                        1.2         2.3    *   1.8       *   3.1         *
813   Assemblers And Routine Operatives                   2.4         4.2    *   3.8       *   5.4         *
814   Construction Operatives                             0.5         0.8    *   0.2           0.7         *
822   Mobile Machine Drivers And Operatives               0.7         1.2    *   0.6           1.2         *
913   Elementary Process Plant Occupations                1.1         2.8    *   3.4       *   2.1         *
914   Elementary Goods Storage Occupations                2.0         2.2    *   3.0       *   4.2         *
922   Elementary Personal Services Occupations            3.0         3.6    *   5.1       *   8.6         *
923   Elementary Cleaning Occupations                     2.6         4.2    *   3.7       *   5.1         *
924   Elementary Security Occupations                     1.2         1.2    *   1.3       *   1.3         *
925   Elementary Sales Occupations                        0.7         1.0    *   1.6       *   2.8         *

Total MD Minor group occupations                          30.3        55.9       63.3          71.4
All occupations                                           100         100        100           100
Note: (1) * Indicates a migrant dense occupation with respect to the particular migrant (sub) group; (2)
The analysis is restricted to the West Midlands region based on place of work




                                                  50
                                          Migrant Workers in the West Midlands – Desk-based Study


3.3      Employment impacts of economic migration

The aim of this section is to examine the extent to which employment of migrants in certain
sectors and occupations has been associated with lower probability of employment for UK-
nationals. This is done by measuring the average rate of change of employment by industry
and occupation over the period 2001–2006 from the LFS. The LFS, once re-grossed by
applying the appropriate employment weights, provides estimates of employment each
quarter.

Figure 3.1 summarises the changes in employment in aggregate terms for migrant and UK-
national workers using the LFS employment estimates for the West Midlands region. The
analysis shows the change in total employment of each group between the 5 LFS datasets
used in this study. Whilst the employment of UK-nationals has been broadly steady over
recent quarters, we see a notable increase in the number of migrant workers in the region, in
particular between 2005 and 2006. According to LFS estimates during this period the
employment of migrants in the region expanded by 44%.

The LFS also provides estimates of employment over the same period by industry and
occupation. This is important since a useful test of the employment impact of inward
economic migration is whether or not there is evidence ‘crowding out’ (i.e. decreasing
employment) of UK-nationals in migrant dense areas of work.

3.3.1    Disaggregation by industry

Figures 3.2 and 3.3 show patterns of employment growth (or decline) in migrant dense
industries in the West Midlands region. This is done separately for migrants and UK-
nationals. This change in employment is estimated by industry over the period from 2001 to
2006 using an average compounded rate of employment growth in each case. 26 The figures
show, respectively, patterns of employment growth for migrant dense (MD) industry sectors
(the broadest categorisation) and industry division (the more detailed categorisation). It is
noted that since LFS sample sizes by industry are very small for some MD industries, the
analysis is restricted to industries where the underling LFS sample size is greater than 25.

The chart shows expansion of migrant employment across almost all of the MD industry
sectors and divisions. Overall, migrant employment has expanded by 71% in MD industries
over this period. In contrast, employment of UK-nationals in these industries has fallen
significantly; by 10% for all MD industry sectors and by 5% for all MD industry divisions. This
provides strong evidence of displacement of UK workers as they are replaced by migrant
workers, with higher rates of employment decline for UK-nationals in many MD industries.
For the purposes of this analysis we define employment displacement of UK-national
workers as a situation where the employment trend of migrant workers is positive and the
employment trend of UK-national workers is negative.

In particular, the fastest decline in employment of UK national workers in the manufacturing
sector, where employment of UK-nationals has decreased by 22% over the period, despite
rising numbers of migrant employment. By industry division we note highest rates of decline
in employment of UK nationals in the machine equipment and manufacture sector and in
land transport.




26
      In order to calculate an average compounded rate of growth of employment we use a simple log-
      linear regression of employment by industry against time over this period.


                                                 51
                                                                           Migrant Workers in the West Midlands – Desk-based Study


Figure 3.1                                       Employment of Migrants and UK-Nationals in West Midlands
    Employment in West Midlands (000s)                                 TOTAL EMPLOYMENT

                                             2500


                                             2000


                                             1500


                                             1000


                                              500


                                                 0
                                                      2001 Jun –      2002 Sep –       2003 Dec –    2005 Mar –      2006 Jul –
                                                         Aug             Nov              Feb           May             Sep
                               Migrant                     93             81               85             85              122
                               UK-nationals              2330            2373             2353          2381             2350

                                                                    % CHANGE IN EMPLOYMENT
  % change in employment in employment




                                             50%
     compared to previous LFS survey




                                             40%

                                             30%

                                             20%

                                             10%

                                               0%

                                            -10%

                                            -20%
                                                      2001 Jun –     2002 Sep –        2003 Dec –    2005 Mar –      2006 Jul –
                                                         Aug            Nov               Feb           May             Sep
                          UK-nationals                                   1.8%            -0.9%          1.2%             -1.3%
                          Migrant                                       -13.0%           5.6%           -0.3%            43.7%

Note:                                    The analysis is restricted to the West Midlands region based on place of work




                                                                                  52
                                                                                                                        Migrant Workers in the West Midlands – Desk-based Study


Figure 3.2                                                                Average rate of change in employment by migrant dense industry
                                                                          sector
                                                        150%
                                                                                                                                                 135%
                                                                                                    127%
                                                        125%


                                                        100%
                     Change in Employment (2001 - 06)




                                                                                                                         84%

                                                        75%                                                                                                                                      71%



                                                                                                                                                                                                            UK-Nationals
                                                        50%
                                                                                                                                                                                                            Migrant

                                                                               23%
                                                        25%
                                                                                                                                      11%
                                                                                             3%
                                                         0%
                                                                                                                  -8%                                                               -10%
                                                        -25%      -22%



                                                        -50%
                                                               D: Manufacturing             H: Hotels &       I: Transport,          N: Health &                                All MD Industries
                                                                                            Restaurants         Storage &            Social Work                                     (sector)
                                                                                                             Communication

Notes: (1) The analysis is restricted to the West Midlands region based on place of work; (2) The
analysis is restricted to industries where the underling LFS sample size is greater than 25.

Figure 3.3                                                                Average rate of change in employment by migrant dense industry
                                                                          division
                                                                  150%
                                                                                                                                                                    135%
                                                                                                                             127%
                                                                  125%
 Change in Employment (2001 - 06)




                                                                  100%
                                                                                      85%
                                                                                                                 76%
                                                                   75%                                                                                                                                71%
                                                                                                                                                        63%
                                                                                                                                           55%
                                                                                                                                                                                                            UK-Nationals
                                                                   50%
                                                                                                                                                                                                            Migrant

                                                                   25%
                                                                                                                                                              11%
                                                                                                                        3%
                                                                        0%
                                                                                -2%                                                                                                             -5%
                                                                                                    -6%    -6%                                    -9%
                                                                  -25%                                                              -21%
                                                                                             -30%
                                                                  -50%
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analysis is restricted to industries where the underlying LFS sample size is greater than 25.




                                                                                                                                    53
                                                                                                         Migrant Workers in the West Midlands – Desk-based Study


3.3.2                                     Disaggregation by occupation

The same analysis is repeated for migrant dense occupations, defined by 2 and 3 digit SOC
in Figures 3.4 and 3.5, respectively. The results show significant and positive growth in
migrant employment across the vast majority of MD occupations. Overall the employment of
migrants has expanded over the period by 91% in 2-digit MD occupations and by 80% in 3-
digit MD occupations. This is contrasted against a decline in employment of UK-nationals by
4% and 7%, respectively.

Whilst there is evidence of expanding employment of UK-nationals over the period in health
and related occupations the growth of migrant employment in these occupations is much
faster. Outside professional and associate professional occupations we find evidence of
rapidly decreasing employment of UK nationals contrasted against the expansion of migrant
employment. This is particularly the case in process, plant and machine and elementary
occupations (SOC major groups 8 and 9).

Figure 3.4                                                 Average rate of change in employment by migrant dense 2-digit
                                                           occupations
                                            350%                                                               326%

                                            300%
  Change in Employment (2001 - 06)




                                            250%
                                                                                                                                                213%
                                            200%
                                                                                                                                                                   UK-Nationals
                                            150%
                                                                                                                                                                   Migrant
                                                                                         108%
                                                                                 87%                                                                         91%
                                            100%
                                                                56%                                                        61%
                                              50%                        35%
                                                                                       18%                   21%
                                                                                                                                              12%
                                                  0%
                                                                                                       -2%                              -9%            -4%
                                                           -14%                                 -12%
                                             -50%                                                                       -28%     -26%
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Notes: (1) The analysis is restricted to the West Midlands region based on place of work; (2) The
analysis is restricted to occupations where the underling LFS sample size is greater than 25.




                                                                                                                   54
                                                                                                  Migrant Workers in the West Midlands – Desk-based Study


Figure 3.5                                              Average rate of change in employment by migrant dense 3-digit
                                                        occupations
                                            1000%
                                                                                                                                        904%
  Change in Employment (2001 - 06)




                                                800%


                                                600%                                          550%


                                                                                                                                                              UK-Nationals
                                                400%                                                                                                          Migrant

                                                           187%                                               180%
                                                200%                                                                                           138%
                                                                     87%     94%                                                                        80%
                                                                  35%                                 34%             43%
                                                                           -1%               8%                                       17%
                                                  0%
                                                                                   -1%-17%         -11%                                     -12%      -7%
                                                        -29%                                                -38%   -44%     -40%
                                                                                                                               -46%

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Notes: (1) The analysis is restricted to the West Midlands region based on place of work; (2) The
analysis is restricted to occupations where the underling LFS sample size is greater than 25.




                                                                                                            55
                                        Migrant Workers in the West Midlands – Desk-based Study


3.4     Unemployment of UK Nationals

3.4.1   Introduction

The previous section has revealed evidence of the displacement of UK-nationals by migrants
in certain areas of work; i.e. migrant dense industries and occupations. However an
important question is, where displacement of UK-nationals is apparent, has this been a
voluntarily or involuntarily process?

‘Voluntarily’ here implies that the process has been an embryonic one by which UK-nationals
are choosing other areas of employment and are being replaced by migrant workers,
perhaps facilitated by natural job turnover. It may be the case, for example, that the
indigenous population are shunning particular types of work as a consequence of the
ongoing up-skilling of the workforce as the average level of educational attainment
increases. In this case migrant workers may be playing an important labour market function
of filling ‘gaps’ in labour demand in sectors and occupations where employers would find it
otherwise difficult to fill jobs.

The alternative explanation is that employment of migrant workers may have resulted in an
involuntary ‘crowding out’ of the job market for UK workers, who consequently find it more
difficult to obtain employment, particularly within the same sector or occupation in which they
worked previously.

It is difficult to get a precise handle on whether the process of displacement is voluntarily or
involuntarily. However, we would expect evidence of involuntary displacement of UK-
nationals in the labour market to manifest itself via increased unemployment of UK-nationals.

3.4.2   Analyses using LFS data

In this section two types of analysis are presented. Firstly, we look at trends in rates of
unemployment amongst UK-nationals in the West Midlands region. Secondly, we examine
trends in employment transitions of UK-nationals. That is, we consider trends in UK-
nationals (a) entering unemployment, by original industry and occupation of employment; (b)
leaving employment in migrant dense areas of work, particularly with respect to probability of
subsequent unemployment.

If the displacement of UK-national workers is involuntary (rather than voluntary), with the
large influx of migrant workers into the West Midlands regions we would expect increased
rates of unemployment of UK-nationals (as noted above). Figure 3.6 shows rates of
unemployment amongst UK-nationals in the West Midlands region. The analysis based on
the LFS utilises the wider International Labour Organisation (ILO) definition of
unemployment rather than unemployment claimant counts (used in 3.4.3). Prior to 2005 the
regional unemployment rate is decreasing. However, between 2005 and 2006 the rate jumps
noticeably upwards. This corresponds (temporarily) with the largest influx of migrants but this
may be due to many possible causes and does not imply cause and effect.

Since it has been shown that migrant workers are increasingly being employed in lower
skilled areas of work, it is interesting to examine whether there has been any differential
impact, in terms of unemployment, for lower skilled UK-nationals. In order to do this, we
consider Figure 3.7 which shows rates of unemployment amongst UK-nationals in the West
Midlands region by level of highest qualification, reported in the LFS. The results lend
evidence to the fact that unemployment has increased most in recent months amongst those
who are least well qualified (and in particular amongst those with no qualifications). At the
other end of the spectrum, we note that the trend in unemployment amongst those with
highest qualifications (at level 4 or above) is still decreasing.


                                              56
                                                                                                   Migrant Workers in the West Midlands – Desk-based Study


Figure 3.6                                                   Rates of unemployment amongst UK-nationals in the West
                                                             Midlands region

                              6
                                                                                                                                                                                 5.4
                                                       5.2
                                                                               5.0
                              5                                                                            4.8



                              4                                                                                                                         3.7
 unemployment rate, %




                              3




                              2




                              1




                              0
                                               2001 Jun – Aug             2002 Sep – Nov              2003 Dec – Feb                              2005 Mar – May          2006 Jul – Sep
                                                                                                   LFS quarterly dataset

Note:                                         Analysis based on UK-nationals resident in the West Midlands region.

Figure 3.7                                                   Rates of unemployment amongst UK-nationals in the West
                                                             Midlands region by highest qualification
                                                             LEVEL 4 & ABOVE                                                                           LEVEL 2 OR 3
                                         12                                                                                          12

                                         10
              unemployment rate, %




                                                                                                              unemployment rate, %




                                                                                                                                     10

                                         8                                                                                           8
                                                                                                                                            5.5                                        5.3
                                         6                                                                                           6                             4.6
                                                                                                                                                       4.4
                                                              3.8
                                         4                                                                                           4
                                                                        2.4      2.6                                                                                      2.3
                                                2.1
                                         2                                                   1.1                                     2

                                         0                                                                                           0
                                              2001 Jun       2002     2003      2005       2006 Jul                                       2001 Jun    2002     2003      2005      2006 Jul
                                               – Aug         Sep –    Dec –     Mar –       – Sep                                          – Aug      Sep –    Dec –     Mar –      – Sep
                                                              Nov      Feb      May                                                                    Nov      Feb      May
                                                               LFS quarterly dataset                                                                    LFS quarterly dataset



                                                             BELOW LEVEL 2                                                                           NO QUALIFICATIONS

                                         12                                                                                          12
                                                                                                                                                                                       10.5
                                                                                                              unemployment rate, %
                  unemployment rate, %




                                         10                                                                                          10     9.1        8.8
                                          8      7.4                                                                                 8                                    7.0
                                                                        6.3                  6.7                                                                   6.6
                                          6                                      5.3                                                 6
                                                              4.6
                                          4                                                                                          4

                                          2                                                                                          2

                                          0                                                                                          0
                                              2001 Jun       2002     2003      2005       2006 Jul                                       2001 Jun    2002     2003      2005      2006 Jul
                                               – Aug         Sep –    Dec –     Mar –       – Sep                                          – Aug      Sep –    Dec –     Mar –      – Sep
                                                              Nov      Feb      May                                                                    Nov      Feb      May
                                                               LFS quarterly dataset                                                                    LFS quarterly dataset


Note:                                         Analysis based on UK-nationals resident in the West Midlands region.


                                                                                                              57
                                       Migrant Workers in the West Midlands – Desk-based Study


Although the trends in unemployment highlighted above are indicative of changing
conditions in the labour market, we need to link evidence regarding unemployment of UK
nationals in a more concrete manner to transitions out of migrant dense industries or
occupations. The information from the LFS on ‘Industry of last job’ and ‘occupation of last
job’ amongst those is now analysed to this end.

Table 3.6 analyses the percentage of UK-nationals in unemployment whose last job was in
one of the migrant dense industries listed (based on industry division). This analysis is based
on the merged dataset for the whole period 2001-2006. In total 36.3% of the UK-nationals
unemployed in the West Midlands last worked in one of these industries. This compares with
a total of 33.2% of workers being employed in migrant dense industries. If all things were
equal we would expect that these two percentages would be the same. Therefore we
observe that proportionally more people than we expect enter unemployment from MD
industries. The asterisk indicates where the last job employment percentage is greater than
the overall employment figure; i.e. indicating that unemployed workers have a higher
propensity than we would expect to have last worked in one of these sectors, which is the
case for most of these sectors. We find that most MD industries are responsible for
disproportionately large numbers entering unemployment.

Table 3.7 similarly analyses last employment for migrant dense occupations (at 3-digit level).
We note that 44.1% of the UK-nationals unemployed in the West Midlands last worked in
one of the MD occupations. This compares with only 30.2% of workers being employed in
these areas. Again, the asterisk indicates where the last job employment percentage is
greater than the overall employment figure, indicating that unemployed workers have a
higher propensity than we would expect to have last worked in one of these occupations.
This is found to be very much the case, and applies almost exclusively, to lower skilled
process and elementary occupations.

At face value these figures appear to indicate evidence of a disproportionately large number
of unemployed coming from migrant dense areas of work, particularly at the lower-skilled
end. However, we must qualify this analysis by noting that these results might have arisen
as the result of higher rates of employment turnover in these sectors (i.e. greater churning
through unemployment) as opposed to a systematic effect arising from migrant density per
se. It is therefore most informative to examine trends over time rather than differences in
cross section.

Figure 3.8 plots the percentage of unemployed UK-nationals (resident in the West Midlands
region) whose last employment was in a MD industry or MD occupation, respectively.
Comparing trends over the period 2001–06 we see a notable downward trend in
unemployed workers coming from MD occupations. (The data for MD industries is not
trended). This evidence is contrary to the hypothesis of migrant workers involuntarily
displacing UK-nationals and suggests that UK-nationals have not suffered greater
unemployment as a consequence of increased migrant employment in these sectors in
recent years. This therefore supports the view of voluntary rather than involuntary
displacement.




                                              58
                                         Migrant Workers in the West Midlands – Desk-based Study


Table 3.6       Last job analysed by migrant dense industries
Migrant Dense Industries                             Last job (% of            Employment by
                                                     unemployed)               Industry (%)
15:Food,Beverage Manufacture                         1.9                       1.5          *
17:Textile Manufacture                               0.8                       0.3          *
18:Clothing,Fur Manufacture                          0.3                       0.2          *
19:Leather,Leather Manufacture                       0.1                       0.1
21:Pulp,Paper,Paper Manufacture                      0.4                       0.2          *
27:Basic Metals Manufacture                          1.9                       1.0          *
29:Mach,Eqt Manufacture                              2.4                       2.3
32:Radio,Tv,Communications                           0.6                       0.4          *
33:Medical,Precision,Optical Manuf.                  0.1                       0.4
34:Motor Vehicle Manufacture                         4.1                       3.5          *
36:Furniture Etc Manufacture                         1.9                       0.9          *
41:Water Collection, Purification                    0.1                       0.3
55:Hotels,Restaurants                                8.6                       3.9          *
60:Transport By Land                                 2.8                       2.4          *
63:Aux Transport Activities                          3.4                       2.1          *
85:Health,Social Work                                5.6                       11.6
91:Activities Of Memberships Orgs                    0.4                       0.7
93:Other Service Activities                          0.5                       1.3
95:Private Households                                0.4                       0.3          *
All MD industries                                    36.3                      33.2
Note:   Analysis based on UK-nationals resident in the West Midlands region.
Table 3.7      Last job analysed by migrant dense occupations
Migrant Dense Occupations                          Last job (% of              Employment by
                                                   unemployed)                 Industry (%)
Protective Service Officers                        0.1                         0.2
Managers & Proprietors In Hospitality & Leisure    0.8                         0.8
Science Professionals                              0.1                         0.3
Information & Communication Technology Profs.      1.6                         1.2          *
Health Professionals                               0.1                         0.7
Public Service Professionals                       0.2                         0.5
Science And Engineering Technicians                0.1                         0.8
IT Service Delivery Occupations                    0.8                         0.5          *
Health Associate Professionals                     0.0                         2.2
Therapists                                         0.2                         0.4
Design Associate Professionals                     0.1                         0.4
Transport Associate Professionals                  0.0                         0.1
Textiles And Garments Trades                       0.7                         0.2          *
Food Preparation Trades                            1.3                         1.0          *
Healthcare And Related Personal Services           2.9                         3.2
Housekeeping Occupations                           0.3                         0.4
Sales Related Occupations                          0.9                         0.9
Process Operatives                                 1.2                         1.4
Plant And Machine Operatives                       1.9                         1.2          *
Assemblers And Routine Operatives                  4.6                         2.5          *
Construction Operatives                            0.2                         0.5
Mobile Machine Drivers And Operatives              1.4                         0.7          *
Elementary Process Plant Occupations               5.3                         1.1          *
Elementary Goods Storage Occupations               4.6                         2.1          *
Elementary Personal Services Occupations           7.3                         3.0          *
Elementary Cleaning Occupations                    4.8                         2.6          *
Elementary Security Occupations                    2.1                         1.2          *
Elementary Sales Occupations                       0.8                         0.7
All MD occupations                                 44.1                        30.4
Note:   Analysis based on UK-nationals resident in the West Midlands region.


                                                59
                                                                Migrant Workers in the West Midlands – Desk-based Study


Figure 3.8                            Trends in the origin of unemployed workers

                               60

                               50
   origin of unemployment, %




                               40

                               30

                               20

                               10

                               0
                                    2001 Jun –    2002 Sep –     2003 Dec –     2005 Mar –     2006 Jul –
                                       Aug           Nov            Feb            May            Sep
                                                            LFS quarterly dataset

                                                              from MD industries
                                                              from MD occupations
Note:                          Analysis based on UK-nationals resident in the West Midlands region.

Finally the LFS allows us to analyse job transitions based on repeated observations of the
same individuals in the LFS. In particular, we focus on individuals employed in migrant
dense industries or occupations in the first quarter and observe these individuals in the next
quarter to observe their economic activity.

Restricting the analysis to UK-national workers in the West Midlands region, we are able to
analyse the transitions out of migrant dense sector for individuals present in the LFS from
2002 – 2006. Figure 3.9 shows the percentage of UK-nationals who are employed in an MD
industry or MD occupation (shown separately) who are still working in the same industry /
occupation in the next quarter. This can be used to detect changing patterns of exit from
these sectors. As we would expect, most people (80%-90%) of those employed in MD areas
of employment still have the same job next quarter. We do not find evidence any evidence
that these transitions are changing over time.

It is perhaps more interesting to analyse the destination in the second period (new job,
unemployment or inactivity) of those UK-nationals who were observed to have moved out of
their job in an MD area of work. Figure 3.10 plots the destinations over time of movers who
have exited a MD industry. In a similar manner, Figure 3.11 plots the destinations over time
of movers who have exited a MD occupation. The data shows no discernable trend, and in
particular we do not observe increased incidence of unemployment over time. Moreover,
transitions out of MD occupations are increasingly to other (non-MD) employment. This
evidence is in favour of the hypothesis that UK-nationals are voluntarily moving out of these
areas of work, or by processes of natural turnover, rather than being displaced into
unemployment.




                                                                       60
                                                                     Migrant Workers in the West Midlands – Desk-based Study


Figure 3.9                          Probability of UK-nationals staying in a Migrant Dense area of
                                    work

                           100

                            98

                            96

                            94
     percentage staying




                            92

                                                                                                                        MD Industry
                            90
                                                                                                                        MD Occupation

                            88

                            86

                            84

                            82

                            80
                             2002       2003                2004                  2005        2006        2007
                                                                   LFS quarter

Note: (1) Analysis based on UK-nationals resident in the West Midlands region. (2) The
observations are shown as 4 quarter moving averages.

Figure 3.10                         Destinations of UK-nationals movers out of MD industries
                           50

                           45

                           40

                           35
 percentage of 'leavers'




                           30

                           25

                           20

                           15

                           10

                            5

                            0
                            2002        2003                2004                   2005            2006          2007
                                                                    LFS quarter

                                               Employment             Unemployment        Inactivity

Note: (1) Analysis based on UK-nationals resident in the West Midlands region. (2) The
observations are shown as 4 quarter moving averages.




                                                                                 61
                                                                     Migrant Workers in the West Midlands – Desk-based Study


Figure 3.11                              Destinations of UK-nationals movers out of MD occupations
                            60



                            50



                            40
  percentage of 'leavers'




                            30



                            20



                            10



                                0
                                2002          2003            2004                 2005        2006       2007
                                                                     LFS quarter

                                                     Employment           Unemployment    Inactivity

Note: (1) Analysis based on UK-nationals resident in the West Midlands region. (2) The
observations are shown as 4 quarter moving averages.


3.4.3                             Unemployment and Overseas Nationals NINO registrations

This section examines patterns of migrant National Insurance Number (NINo) registrations at
the local area level with changes of unemployment, based on claimant rates (from Nomis).
This analysis is restricted to the West Midlands region. In particular, we take the annual
percentage rate of NINo registrations based on:

                            •     Average number of registrations by local area in 2004/5 and 2005/6 as a percentage
                                  of the workplace population in that area. The latter figure (denominator) utilises local
                                  area data from the 2001 Census.

This figure is compared with the trend in claimant count unemployment at local area level. In
particular we consider the change in unemployment rates (as a percentage of the working
age population) between May 2004 and February 2007 (the latest available figure at the time
of writing). It is noted that May 2004 is used as a starting point for the comparison since this
coincides with the enlargement of the EU to include the A8 accession countries. Changes in
unemployment rate at the local level are calculated in two ways, using a trend absolute
change and a relative change - i.e.

                            •     Trend change in unemployment rate measures the average monthly rate of increase
                                  in unemployment rate since May 2004. This figure is obtained using a simple OLS
                                  regression of monthly rates over time at the local area level.
                            •     Relative change in unemployment divides the unemployment rate in Feb 2007 by the
                                  May 2004 rate at the local area level.

It is noted that the latter figure may be a useful alternative to the trend increase for smaller
local areas where the magnitude of the trend figure is bound to be smaller compared to the
large urban areas.




                                                                              62
                                           Migrant Workers in the West Midlands – Desk-based Study


Table 3.8 shows selected local areas (LAD/UA) in the West Midlands region ranked by
percentage migrant NINO registrations. The table shows only those areas where the level of
registration has been higher than for the region as a whole, ranked in descending order. This
covers 11 of the 34 local areas (LAD/UA) in the West Midlands region. In each case NINO
registrations are compared with unemployment trend and relative change. Note that “+”
refers to an unemployment trend which is significantly above that of the region as a whole.
This applies in only 4 of the 11 cases, but notably in the large urban areas (i.e.
Wolverhampton, Birmingham, Coventry and Sandwell) where unemployment is typically
higher per se.

Table 3.8      NINO registrations and unemployment: selected local areas
LAD/UA                        NINO             Unemployment        Unemployment
                              registrations    trend**             relative
                              as     %      of                     increase***
                              workforce
                              population*
Coventry                      3.17             0.04            + 1.31
Herefordshire (County)        2.52             0.01                1.07
Birmingham                    2.19             0.04            + 1.20
Wolverhampton                 2.03             0.05            + 1.21
Rugby                         1.90             0.01                1.25
Redditch                      1.78             0.02                1.19
Stratford-on-Avon             1.76             0.01                1.30
Stoke on Trent                1.61             0.03                1.30
Worcester                     1.56             0.02                1.37
Wychavon                      1.56             0.01                1.33
Sandwell                      1.51             0.04            + 1.21

West Midlands                     1.50                 0.028                      1.25
Notes: (a) The calculations are performed as follows:#
       * NINO registrations are annual percentages based on an averaging of 2004/5 and 2005/6
       registrations;
       ** The unemployment trend figure is the monthly trend change in the rate of unemployment
       from May 2004 to February 2007;
       *** The unemployment relative increase is the unemployment rate in Feb 06 divided by that in
       May 04.
       (b) “+” indicates a trend figure which is significantly above that of the West Midlands region as
       a whole.

Figure 3.12 plots changes in claimant count unemployment rates for areas where migrant
influx (as measured by NINo registrations of overseas nationals) has been greatest - i.e. we
select the top 5 areas in terms of percentage NINo registrations in relation to workforce
population. This covers Coventry; Herefordshire; Birmingham; Wolverhampton; and Rugby.
Changes in local area rates are compared to the region as a whole. From the graph we see
no discernable difference between trends in unemployment in these local areas compared to
the region as a whole. In Rugby and Herefordshire we see much slower increase in
unemployment.

To make the analysis more robust we plot and compare correlations for each of the local
areas of the West Midlands region:
    (a) % NINO registrations versus trend unemployment (Figure 3.13); and
    (b) % NINO registrations versus relative change in unemployment (Figure 3.14)
The results reveal no significant correlation in each case, suggesting on the basis of this
evidence, that unemployment has not been affected by migrant influx at the local level.




                                                  63
                                                                                      Migrant Workers in the West Midlands – Desk-based Study


Figure 3.12                                     Claimant count unemployment: selected local areas
          7.0


          6.0


          5.0
                                                                                                                                 Birmingham
                                                                                                                                 Coventry
          4.0
                                                                                                                                 Herefordshire
                                                                                                                                 Rugby
          3.0                                                                                                                    Wolverhampton
                                                                                                                                 West Midlands

          2.0


          1.0


          0.0
           Jan-01                             Jan-02         Jan-03          Jan-04          Jan-05      Jan-06      Jan-07

Note:                                  The claimant counts are shown as a 12 month moving average based on monthly data.


Figure 3.13                                     NINO registrations and trend increase in unemployment
                                  0.070


                                  0.060
 trend increase in unemployment




                                  0.050


                                  0.040


                                  0.030
                                                                                                                         R2 = 0.0705

                                  0.020


                                  0.010


                                  0.000
                                       0.00        0.50               1.00            1.50            2.00        2.50        3.00       3.50
                                                       Annual NINO registrations (2004/5, 2005/6) as a percentage of employment

Note: Each point on the chart represents a LAD/UA in the West Midlands region




                                                                                                64
                                                                                 Migrant Workers in the West Midlands – Desk-based Study


Figure 3.14                                       NINO registrations and relative increase in unemployment
                                     1.70


                                     1.60
 relative increase in unemployment




                                     1.50


                                     1.40


                                     1.30


                                     1.20                                                                           R2 = 0.0175


                                     1.10


                                     1.00
                                         0.00       0.50          1.00         1.50           2.00         2.50          3.00     3.50
                                                     Annual NINO registrations (2004/5, 2005/6) as a percentage of employment

Note: Each point on the chart represents a LAD/UA in the West Midlands region


3.5                                         Trends in Vacancies

3.5.1                                       Introduction

It is also interesting to investigate patterns and changes in vacancies in the West Midlands
region over recent years in order to discern any association with changes in numbers of
migrants. In order to do this we take data from two independent sources - i.e.:
     • Jobcentre Plus (JCP) reported vacancies, available via Nomis
     • National Employer Skills Survey (NESS) reported vacancies

The former of these datasets is the official administrative source of data in the UK. We use
vacancy data from May 2004 to February 2007, available by occupation (based on broad
SOC major group) and by local area (LAD/UA). The latter is a large national skills survey,
covering approximately 7,000 establishments in the West Midlands region.

3.5.2                                       Trends in vacancies reported to Jobcentre Plus

Figure 3.15 examines trends in total vacancies (reported by JCP) in the region since May
2004, based on the reported monthly totals. A 12-month moving average is also applied to
the data and shown on the chart in order to remove any systematic monthly/seasonal
effects. We can see from this that the trend in total reported vacancies in the region is
broadly flat, and appears to be increasing slightly over recent months based on the
smoothed series.

Table 3.9 takes this analysis to a more detailed level by comparing trends in vacancies by
SOC major group occupation. To avoid spurious comparisons due to seasonal effects we
compare February 2005 with February 2007 (the latest available data at the time of writing).
An interesting pattern emerges here. There have been significant increases in the number of
reported vacancies in higher skilled occupations (i.e. Managers and Senior Officials;
Professional Occupations; and Associate Professional and Technical Occupation). In



                                                                                         65
                                                         Migrant Workers in the West Midlands – Desk-based Study


contrast to this, however, we observe decreases in reported vacancies in lower skilled
occupations and particularly amongst lowest skilled Elementary Occupations where
vacancies have decreased by 14 per cent over this period, suggesting either a notable
tightening of this segment of the labour market or a decrease in the likelihood of such
vacancies being reported to JCP. Figure 3.16 extend this analysis, showing the moving
average trend in vacancies in selected occupations including Skilled trade occupations,
Process, Plant and Machine Operatives (SOC Major Group 8) and Elementary Occupations
(SOC Major Group 9). It is amongst the latter group where we see sharp rates of decline in
vacancies.

Figure 3.15          Job Centre Plus (JCP) vacancies in the West Midlands
  50,000

  45,000

  40,000

  35,000

  30,000

  25,000

  20,000

  15,000

  10,000

   5,000

        0
            4




                                                    5




                                                                                              6
                             4




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Notes: (1) the data series are shown as raw (dark blue line) and 12 month moving average (pink line)
values; (2) analysis restricted to West Midlands region.


Table 3.9       Job Centre Plus (JCP) vacancies by occupation in the West Midlands
Occupation                                                 JCP Vacancies
(SOC Major group)                               February      February      % change
                                                2005          2007
1 : Managers and Senior Officials                       824           1299      57.6%
2 : Professional Occupations                            893           1235      38.3%
3 : Associate Professional and Technical Occs.         2260           2784      23.2%
4 : Administrative and Secretarial Occupations         4548           3791     -16.6%
5 : Skilled Trades Occupations                         2743           3002       9.4%
6 : Personal Service Occupations                       2362           2582       9.3%
7 : Sales and Customer Service occupations             5062           5798      14.5%
8 : Process, Plant and Machine Operatives              2771           2709      -2.2%
9 : Elementary Occupations                             7498           6450     -14.0%

All occupations                                                                       28961                     29650                2.4%
Note: the table relates to the West Midlands region only.




                                                                  66
                                                                Migrant Workers in the West Midlands – Desk-based Study


Figure 3.16            Job Centre Plus (JCP) vacancies by selected occupations in the West
                       Midlands
 10,000
  9,000
                                       8,582
  8,000
  7,000
                                                                                                                     6,665
  6,000
  5,000
  4,000
                                       3,714                                                                         3,312
  3,000                                                                                                              3,241
                                       2,968
  2,000
  1,000
        0
                                                        5




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                5 : Skilled Trades Occupations                                      8 : Process, Plant and Machine Operatives
                9 : Elementary Occupations
Note:       (1) analysis restricted to West Midlands region;
            (2) the series shows 12 month moving average totals.


It is useful to relate changes in reported vacancies to levels of NINo registrations of overseas
nationals at the local area level, as was done previously with the unemployment data. The
trend in reported vacancies is calculated as a percentage monthly change at the local area
level, using a simple time regression. This figure is calculated for each local area with
respect to all JCP vacancies and vacancies in Elementary occupations. These figures are
compared to NINo registrations of overseas nationals (as previously) in Figure 3.17.

Under the hypothesis that economic migrants are associated with decreasing levels of
reported vacancies we would expect to see a negative correlation between NINo
registrations and vacancy trend. This, however, is not borne out in the analysis and
correlations are found not to be significant. This undermines the migrant impact on
vacancies hypothesis and suggests that the reasons for tightening labour markets (i.e. fewer
vacancies) - particularly for low skilled workers - perhaps lie elsewhere.

Finally, the NESS survey, allows us to analyse levels of reported vacancies and so called
‘hard to fill’ vacancies by industry. Figure 3.18 shows reported vacancy and hard-to-fill
vacancy levels for migrant dense (MD) sectors, compared to all industries in the region. This
suggests that migrants are responding to labour shortages in particular sectors. Whilst
overall levels of vacancies are high in MD sectors, the results were not statistically
significant, partially due to problems of sample size. It is also noted that where MD sectors
have higher levels of vacancies this might in part reflect higher levels of job turnover.

Hence, there is no clear statistical evidence for an association between increasing numbers
of migrants and a decrease in vacancies in the West Midlands over recent years.




                                                                         67
                                                             Migrant Workers in the West Midlands – Desk-based Study


Figure 3.17                      Trends in vacancies versus NINO registrations
                                                          ALL OCCUPATIONS
                      2.0%




                      1.0%
 trend in vacancies




                      0.0%
                          0.00      0.50         1.00          1.50         2.00          2.50          3.00    3.50


                      -1.0%                                                                       R2 = 0.0141



                      -2.0%




                      -3.0%
                                    Annual NINO registrations (2004/5, 2005/6) as a percentage of employment


                                                     ELEMENTARY OCCUPATIONS
                      2.0%




                      1.0%
 trend in vacancies




                      0.0%
                          0.00      0.50         1.00          1.50         2.00          2.50          3.00    3.50


                      -1.0%



                                                                                                  R2 = 0.0078
                      -2.0%




                      -3.0%
                                    Annual NINO registrations (2004/5, 2005/6) as a percentage of employment

Note: Each point on the chart represents a LAD/UA in the West Midlands region




                                                                      68
                                15                                                           percentage of establishments                                                                                                            percentage of establishments
                                     :F                                                                                                                              15
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Figure 3.18



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     Source: NESS 2006.
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  NESS reported vacancies by Migrant Dense (MD) sector in the West
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Migrant Workers in the West Midlands – Desk-based Study
                                            Migrant Workers in the West Midlands – Desk-based Study


3.6       Impact of economic migration on earnings

Another important area where a large influx of economic migrants may have had an impact
on UK-nationals is via the suppression of earnings. We can test this hypothesis using LFS
data by examining trends in earnings of UK-nationals in migrant dense areas of work
(industries and occupations) compared to trends in earnings of UK-nationals in the economy
as a whole. If, as is often hypothesised, migrants act to suppress wages then we should see
evidence of this through lower wage growth at the sector or occupation level where migrant
employment is most concentrated (i.e. in migrant dense (MD) industries or occupations).

The LFS contains information on hourly earnings over time for each of the datasets utilised
in the study. From this we calculate wage inflation by MD sector and occupation based on
the most detailed definitions of each (i.e. at division and 3-digit level). The analysis is
restricted to UK-nationals in the West Midlands region. Wage inflation is calculated using a
standard log wage regression against time, restricted to the period 2001–2006 (as
previously). The rate expressed as an average annual compound rate. It is noted that the
analysis is restricted to industries / occupations where the underling LFS sample size is
greater than 25.

Figures 3.19 and 3.20 show, respectively, rates of wage inflation in each of the MD
industries (sectors and divisions). The comparable figures are also calculated for all MD
industries and all industries. The results show a mixed picture of wage growth in MD areas
of work. The average annual rate of wage growth over the period for West Midlands
economy as a whole is 5.1% per annum. Some MD sectors show wage growth in excess of
this figure, and in particular in the hotels and restaurants and health and social work
sectors. 27 However, equally, other sectors show lower than average wage growth, as is the
case in many of the manufacturing industries.

Two points are important here. Firstly, the average rates of wage growth are subject to
relatively large standard errors in regression analysis. Therefore differences in wage growth
between sectors should be treated as indicative rather than conclusive. Secondly, based on
statistical tests, the average rate of wage growth for all MD industries is not significantly
different from that of all sectors as a whole. For example, we notice that MD industry sectors
have exactly the same rate of wage growth as the economy as a whole (5.1% per annum).

Figures 3.21 and 3.22 similarly show rates of wage inflation for MD occupations, at the 2-
and 3-digit level, respectively. The picture here is more interesting since we see at the 2-digit
level significantly faster rates of wage growth amongst health professionals in particular and
lower rates of growth in many of the other MD occupations. At the more detailed 3-digit level
the picture is clearly more mixed. Overall, however, for MD occupations as a whole we again
find no significant difference in wage growth compared to the figure for all occupations.

This combined evidence reveals a mixed rather than a clear-cut picture with respect to wage
growth in migrant dense areas of work. However, it clearly rejects the hypothesis that growth
in migrant employment is associated with lower rates of earnings growth.




27
      It is noted that the increases in the minimum wage rate over this period may well have contributed
      to higher wage growth in these low paid sectors.


                                                   70
                                                                                                                                                                              Annual average % wage growth (2001 - 06)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Annual average % wage growth (2001 - 06)
                                                                                                                 15                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       D
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            analysis is restricted to industries where the underling LFS sample size is greater than 25.




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                                                                                                                                                                                               ALL INDUSTRIES




     Notes: (1) The analysis is restricted to UK-nationals working in the West Midlands region; (2) The
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Notes: (1) The analysis is restricted to UK-nationals working in the West Midlands region; (2) The
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Migrant Workers in the West Midlands – Desk-based Study
                                                                                                                                                                Annual average % wage growth (2001 - 06)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Annual average % wage growth (2001 - 06)
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     analysis is restricted to industries where the underling LFS sample size is greater than 25.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        analysis is restricted to industries where the underling LFS sample size is greater than 25.




                                                                                                                                                      io
                                                                                                                                                         ns
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                ALL OCCUPATIONS




                                                                                                                                                                                   ALL OCCUPATIONS




     Notes: (1) The analysis is restricted to UK-nationals working in the West Midlands region; (2) The
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Notes: (1) The analysis is restricted to UK-nationals working in the West Midlands region; (2) The
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Migrant Workers in the West Midlands – Desk-based Study
                                       Migrant Workers in the West Midlands – Desk-based Study


3.7     Contribution of migrant workers to the West Midlands economy

3.7.1   Introduction

In this section we combine measures of employment and earnings of migrant workers from
the LFS with data on Gross Value Added (GVA) by industry for the West Midlands region.
Through a series of calculations, outlined below, this enables us to estimate the contribution
of migrant workers to the regional economy.

The data on Gross Value Added (GVA) is used as the primary building block for calculating
the contribution of migrant workers. GVA measures the total value of output of the economy
using production based measures of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It is calculated by
summing the contribution to the economy of each individual producer (and in total each
industry) to the value of total output by estimating the value of an output (goods or services)
less the value of inputs used in that output's production process.

The data was taken from Cambridge Econometrics (CE) estimates based on output from the
CE Multi-sector Dynamic Model (MDM). The output values are expressed in monetary terms
at constant prices (i.e. at 2001 base year prices). Due to the nature and vintage of the MDM
output, the GVA measures for 2006 are based on projected rather than actual data. The
analysis is based on a disaggregation of GVA using 14 broad industry categories based on
Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) Industrial Sectors.

Three separate measures of migrant contribution to GVA are calculated. For the purposes of
this paper the measures of contribution are termed:
• Base (measure)
• Wage-adjusted (measure)
• LFS-reflated (measure)

These build upon each other, as ordered above, from the most basic to more sophisticated
measures, and are calculated sequentially as described below.

3.7.2   Base measure

In the first instance migrant contribution to GVA is calculated, in it simplest form, by
multiplying the percentage of employment of migrants in industry i, μ (i ) , by the gross value
added produced by that industry, GVA(i). These numbers are then summed across the 14
industries to produce the total monetary value of migrant contribution for the region, MGVA,
as expressed in equation (1). This monetary value figure is calculated at constant 2001-
values. A percentage contribution to gross value added, pGVA, is then calculated by dividing
by the total value of GVA at the regional level, as shown in equation (2). The pGVA measure
produces a base (raw employment-based) estimate of percentage contribution. This process
is repeated each year.

           14
MGVA = ∑ GVA(i ) ∗ μ (i )                                                  (1)
           i =1
             MGVA
pMGVA =                                                                    (2)
             GVA




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                                            Migrant Workers in the West Midlands – Desk-based Study


3.7.3      Wage-adjusted measure

The base (or unadjusted) estimate of migrant contribution to GVA, described above, is
somewhat simplistic, based on solely on industry composition of employment. It fails to take
into account the occupational structure of migrants (relative to UK-national workers) within
industry. It may be the case, for example, that despite the fact that a particular sector may
produce a low value of output, migrant workers may be employed in job roles which are
higher skilled and therefore of higher marginal value. In this case the base measure would
understate the value of migrant input since it is does not take into account the value of
migrant skills within sector as it would not necessarily reflect `migrant ‘productivity’, in terms
of how much they are adding to the value of production. Similarly, the converse case may
apply with disproportionate numbers of migrant workers employed in low skilled jobs.

The way around this problem is found using hourly wage data from the LFS. Clearly wages
are correlated with productivity. In fact at the extreme, assuming perfect labour markets,
wages will be equal to the marginal product of labour. Also, it is worth noting that at the
aggregate level, the total ‘wage bill’ accounts for over 80% of GVA. The method of
calculating the total monetary value of migrant contribution for the region, MGVA, is
therefore adjusted, incorporating the adjustment factor which is equal to the ratio of mean
migrant wages to mean wages for all workers by industry. This is summarised in equation
(3). In simple terms, if migrant workers are paid less than UK-national workers reflecting their
‘productivity’, then this lowers the MGVA figure. The resulting estimates of migrant
contribution to GVA are termed wage adjusted estimates.

              14
MGVA = ∑ GVA(i ) ∗ μ (i ) ∗ ρ (i )                                                          (3)
              i =1
where μ (i ) is the ratio of mean wages of migrant and overall industry wages in industry i. i.e.
           w (migrants)
ρ (i ) =
              w (all )

3.7.4      LFS-reflated measure

Finally, a further important issue is, potentially, the under-counting of migrant workers in the
LFS. Previous discussion (see Salt and Millar [2006] and Rendall et al. [2003]) has raised
the issue that the LFS may under-count of migrant workers, relative to their ‘true’ numbers in
the workforce. The concern is that the fact LFS tracks households over 5 quarters and
therefore requires people to have stable living arrangements or be continuously contactable.
The suspicion therefore is that many migrants, such as those who are predominantly young,
work for short periods of time (perhaps returning home after a short period), are
geographically mobile within the UK, or live in communal accommodation, will fall outside of
the LFS sampling frame. 28 Given these considerations, our wage-adjusted estimates should
be considered as lower bound estimates of migrant contribution to GVA.



28
     Many groups of individuals are not well captured by official data sources. It is recognised, for
     example, that omission of individuals the census is systematic and varies with individual
     characteristics such as age and ethnicity. This raises the issue of potential for bias in employment
     estimates. It is much more likely that migrants entering the LFS will have a skewed set of
     characteristics, for example being longer established in the UK, older, in permanent and better
     paid job roles and so on. In the context of this paper, this may lead to under-counting being
     predominant within certain sectors or occupations. One can think for example of seasonal
     workers in agriculture as being unlikely to be picked up by the LFS.


                                                   74
                                                                                     Migrant Workers in the West Midlands – Desk-based Study


It is not altogether clear how to proceed in adjusting the figures (base or wage-adjusted
estimates) to reflect the degree of under-counting in the LFS. One crude mechanism is to
apply a rescaling value to all of the estimates to correct for under-counting. This is our
approach here based on the analysis Rendall et al. (2003) who estimate that the LFS
undercounts migrants by 15%–25%. Using this figure we reflate our estimates of contribution
upward by a factor of 20%. It is noted that the rescaling constant does not vary by sector or
occupation. This rescaling value is applied to the wage-adjusted estimates and the resulting
figures are termed LFS-reflated estimates.

3.7.5                            Results

Figure 3.23 plots GVA per head by industry against percentage employment of migrants in
the West Midlands region, based on pooled 2006 data. The downward sloping line of best fit
on the chart reveals a tendency towards migrant employment being most concentrated in the
least productive sectors of the economy (in monetary terms), partly reflected in lower wages
in these sectors. Migrant employment is most concentrated in the health and social work (N)
and hotels and restaurants (H), respectively. Migrants are generally less concentrated in
some small sectors of the economy characterised by high GVA sector, such as electricity
and gas production (E) and mining and quarrying (C), as well as in some larger sectors
where GVA per head is relatively low, such as public administration and defence (L). These
cross-industry differences are important with respect to migrant contribution to the overall
value of output, lowering contribution relative to employment.

Figure 3.23                                GVA per head and employment of migrants by industry in the West
                                           Midlands
                         9


                         8
                                                          H


                         7
                                             N
                         6
  % Migrant employment




                         5
                                                                        I
                                                               D
                         4                            OPQ
                                                 M                               K
                         3                                                                                                    E
                                                          G
                                                      F
                                                                                 J
                         2                                         AB
                                                          L


                         1

                                                                                           C
                         0
                             0        10         20           30            40           50        60          70   80   90       100
                                                                   GVA per head (£000; 2001 constant prices)

Note:                            The analysis is restricted to the West Midlands region based on place of work

Figure 3.24 shows the overall estimates of migrant contribution to GVA in the West
Midlands, comparing 2001 and 2006, using each of the measures discussed. The chart
shows increasing migrant contribution to the regional economy. The estimated contribution
of migrants (using the LFS-reflated measure) has increased from 4.1% to 5% of total output
in the region. It is noted that whilst the GVA base measures are below the percentage
employment, this is corrected in part by wage adjustment. Further the LFS-reflated values
for GVA are higher than the employment estimates.



                                                                                              75
                                                                   Migrant Workers in the West Midlands – Desk-based Study


Figure 3.24                            Migrant contributions to GVA in the West Midlands region
                                  6%




                                  5%
  Percentage of GVA, employment




                                  4%


                                                                                                   Employment
                                                                                                   GVA (base)
                                  3%
                                                                                                   GVA (wage adjusted)
                                                                                                   GVA (LFS reflated)

                                  2%




                                  1%




                                  0%
                                           2001                                     2006
                                                   Year (mid year estimates)

Note: The analysis is restricted to the West Midlands region based on place of work. The points for
2001 and 2006 are joined here by a straight line – although it is recognised that the increase shown
over the period would not conform to a straight line in reality given the changing volume of migrant
flows and changes in the distribution of migrants by industry.


Hence, it is clear that migrant workers make an important contribution to the West Midlands
economy.




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                                      Migrant Workers in the West Midlands – Desk-based Study


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                                           78
                                          Migrant Workers in the West Midlands – Desk-based Study


Full document information

Title          The economic impact of migrant workers in the West Midlands: Interim report from
               the desk based study.
Date created   2007-05
Type           Report
Description    This is the interim report from the large scale research project to understand aspects
               of the economic impact of migrant workers in the West Midlands. This report is
               based on the analysis of existing administrative data, such as national insurance
               registrations, work permits and the labour force survey. It examines the scale and
               nature of migrant employment since 2002 in the West Midlands and identifies which
               sectors and occupations have been most effected. Results are given regionally and
               sub regionally, where available.
Creator        Anne E. Green, Paul Jones and David Owen
               Institute for Employment Research
               University of Warwick, Coventry. CV4 7AL
               Tel: 02476 524 113
               Email: Anne.Green@warwick.ac.uk
               Web: www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/ier/
Publisher      West Midlands Regional Observatory
               Tel: 0121 202 3250
               Fax: 0121 202 3240
               Email: enquiries@wmro.org
               Web: www.wmro.org
Rights         Copyright West Midlands Regional Observatory 2007
Document       Stewart Meikle
contact        West Midlands Regional Observatory
               Level L1, Millennium Point, Curzon Street, Birmingham. B4 7XG
               Tel: 0121 202 3245
               Email: stewart.meikle@wmro.org
Coverage,      2002-2007
Time period
Coverage,      West Midlands
Geographical
Format         Text/PDF
Subject        Employment, jobs and careers
category       Immigration and nationality
               Population and migration
               UK economy
Subject        West Midlands, economic migrants, UK nationals, economy, migration, immigrants,
keywords       labour, migrant workers, A8, migration flows, qualifications, skills, industrial sectors,
               motivation, vacancies
Date           2007-11-26
available
Cost           Free
Language       English
Identifier     http://www.wmro.org/resources/res.aspx/CmsResource/resourceFilename/1834/Eco
URL            nomic-Migrants-Desk-Study_V1.0_Report_SM.pdf



                                                 79
                                    Migrant Workers in the West Midlands – Desk-based Study



Relation   Is referenced by: Economic impact of migrant workers in the West Midlands: Full
           report.
           http://www.wmro.org/resources/res.aspx/CmsResource/resourceFilename/1788/Eco
           nomic-Migrants-Final_V1.0_Report_SM.pdf
Status     Version 1.0. For publication




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