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					The mixed housing system and
 residential mobility in urban
 China: comparative study of
   Beijing and Guangzhou
           John R. Logan and Limei Li
             Department of Sociology
  Spatial Structures in the Social Sciences (S4)
                 Brown University
                  Dec 13, 2007
                Outline
• Introduction: housing reform and the
  mixed housing system
• Residential mobility: who moves where
  and why?
• Comparative analysis based on the 2006
  Beijing survey and 2005 Guangzhou
  survey data
           Residential mobility
• Spatial adjustment model (individual need and
  preference)
• State persistence model (institutional factors)
• Combined housing availability/opportunities
  model
  – The housing availability provided by the state, the
    work unit or the developer triggers the residential
    mobility.
  – The housing availability of a given city is quite place-
    specific. Therefore the local housing context also
    influence the rate and pattern of residential mobility.
        The different settings
• Beijing: the centrally planned economy still
  prevails.
• Guangzhou: the market sector is much
  more developed.
  – The assessment of the level of marketization:
    Guangdong Province stands first and Beijing
    ranks 14th on the list in 2000 (Fan et al.,
    2003).
100%



80%



60%



40%



20%



 0%
       1990   1992   1994   1996   1997   1998   1999    2000   2001    2002   2003   2004

                            Urban core    Inner suburb   outer suburb




         Figure 4 The distribution of housing floor space completed in Beijing
                     Source: Beijing Statistical Yearbook, 2005
   1800                                                                          80.00%
   1600                                                                          70.00%
   1400                                                                          60.00%
   1200                                                                          50.00%
   1000
                                                                                 40.00%
    800
    600                                                                          30.00%
    400                                                                          20.00%
    200                                                                          10.00%
      0                                                                          0.00%
         90
         91
         92
         93
         94
         95
         96
         97
         98
         99
         00
         01
         02
         03
         04
         05
      19
      19
      19
      19
      19
      19
      19
      19
      19
      19
      20
      20
      20
      20
      20
      20
                  Total housing floor space completed
                  Housing floor space completed by real estate development
                  Share by real estate development




Figure 5 The share of real estate development in housing floor space completed in Guangzhou
                    Source: Guangzhou Statistical Yearbook, 1991-2006
              Table 1 Tenure type and location in Beijing and Guangzhou

                 Self-    Market     Economic    Public     Public   Market   others
                 built    purchase   purchase    purchase   rental   rental

Beijing           31.21     3.95       2.13        27.93     25.08     6.41     3.29
Central city       7.86     0.78       0.99        30.63     52.66     3.10     3.98
Inner
suburb            14.39     1.90       1.95        39.04     30.08     9.00     3.64
Outer
suburb            62.94     7.95       2.88        12.75      6.29     4.66     2.53
Guangzhou
                  35.73     9.13       2.60        22.53     12.91    11.59     5.52
Central city      10.51     7.05       2.16        40.75     22.66    10.19     6.69
Inner
suburb            29.31     8.81       3.49        22.43     12.06    18.25     5.65
Outer
suburb            65.54    11.36       2.11        5.77       4.74     6.17     4.30
National
(cities and
towns)            35.71     8.92       5.96        23.51     14.42     6.13     5.36



                          Source: 2000 Population Census
Figure 6 Sampled communities of 2006 Beijing survey
Figure 7 Sampled communities
   of 2005 Guangzhou survey
             Table 2 moving frequencies in Beijing since 1980
          Moving                Urban core       Inner suburb
          frequencies
                             Frequencies        Frequencies
          since 1980
                    0            149               215

                    1            130               566

                    2             20                95

             3 or more            1                 12

                 Total           300               888



                         Table 3 Moving frequencies in Guangzhou since 1980
Moving frequencies since 1980     Urban core   Inner suburb            Outer suburb
                                  Frequency    Frequency               Frequency

             0                         73                  26                      2

             1                         212               300                       75

             2                         156               100                       84

             3                         51                  47                      21

          4 or more                     8                  30                      18

            Total                      500               503                    200
Table 4 Comparison of current and previous housing location in Beijing

          Previous          Current housing location       Total
          housing
                         Urban core       Inner
          location
                                          suburb
          Urban core       107            168            275

          Inner suburb     38             471            509

          Outer suburb      2             19             21

          Total            147            658            805




     Table 5 Comparison of current and previous housing location in Guangzhou

            Previous     Current housing location                       Total
            housing
                         Urban core       Inner suburb   Outer suburb
            location


           Urban core     352               194                50       596

          Inner suburb     55               262                40       357

          Outer suburb      2                  0               84       86

             Total        409               456               174       1039
                        Table 7 Types of residential movement by housing source in Beijing (N, %column, %row)

                                                                           Private             Inheritance     or                       Others                   Total
          Work unit            Housing bureau        Developer             homeowners          conferment           Self-built
          N      %       %      N     %       %       N     %        %     N       %  %        N       %      %     N      %      %     N        %   %     N        %      %
Within                                                                                                                            0                                       100
the
          64    15.3    61.0   28    23.0    26.7     3      2.6    2.9    6     8.8    5.7    3    14.3     2.9    0       0           1    10.0    1.0   105     13.2
central
city
From                                                                                                                                                                      100
central
city to   86    20.6    51.5   28    23.0    16.8    35     29.9    21.0   12   17.6    7.2    2     9.5     1.2    1      2.4    .6    3    30.0    1.8   167     20.9
inner
suburb
From                                                                                                                                                                      100
inner
suburb
          19     4.5    50.0    7     5.7    18.4     8      6.8    21.1   2     2.9    5.3    1     4.8     2.6    1      2.4   2.6    0        0   0     38      4.8
to
central
city
Within                                                                                                                                                                    100
the
          243   58.1    52.0   56    45.9    12.0    70     59.8    15.0   43   63.2    9.2    11   52.4     2.4    38    90.5   8.1    6    60.0    1.3   467     58.5
inner
suburb
From                                                                                                                                                                      100
outer
suburb
           0     0       0      2     1.6    100.0    0      0       0     0     0       0     0      0       0     0       0     0     0        0   0     2        .3
to
central
city
From                                                                                                                                                                      100
outer
to         6     1.4    31.6    1     .8      5.3     1      .9     5.3    5     7.4    26.3   4    19.0     21.1   2      4.8   10.5   0        0    0    19      2.4
inner
suburb
Total     418   100.0   52.4   122   100.0   15.3    117    100.0   14.7   68   100.0   8.5    21   100.0    2.6    42   100.0   5.3    10   100.0   1.3   798    100.0   100




                                                           Source: 2006 Beijing survey
                      Table 6 Types of residential movement by housing source in Guangzhou (N, %column, %row)

                                                                                              Private               Inheritance or                                  Total
                     Work unit          Housing bureau              Developer               homeowners               conferment            Self-built
               N        %        %      N       %       %      N      %         %      N       %        %       N       %       %     N       %         %     N     %       %
Within the                                              14     13                                                                                                           100
               84      39.3      23.9   50     64.9                   30.5    39.2     46     21.6     13.1    12      41.4     3.4   22     40.7       6.3   352   33.9
central city                                            .2      8

From                                                                                                                                                                        100
central city                                            6.     11
               27      12.6      13.9   13     16.9                   24.6    57.2     31     14.6     16.0     1       3.4     .5    11     20.4       5.7   194   18.7
to inner                                                7       1
suburb
From                                                                                                                                                                        100
central city
                0       0         0      0       0       0     38     8.4     76.0     11      5.2     22.0     0        0       0    1       1.9       2.0   50    4.8
to outer
suburb
From inner                                                                                                                                                                  100
                                                        12
suburb to      17       7.9      30.9    7      9.1            13     2.9     23.6     14      6.6     25.5     2       6.9     3.6   2       3.7       3.6   55    5.3
                                                        .7
central city
Within the                                                                                                                                                                  100
                                                        2.
inner          80      37.4      30.5    6      7.8            96     21.2    36.6     65     30.5     24.8     3      10.3     1.1   12     22.2       4.6   262   25.2
                                                        3
suburb
From inner                                                                                                                                                                  100
                                                        2.
to outer        0       0         0      1      1.3            25     5.5     62.5     13      6.1     32.5     1       3.4     2.5   0        0        0     40    3.8
                                                        5
suburb
From outer                                                                                                                                                                  100
suburb to       0       0         0      0       0       0     1       .2     50.0      1      .5      50.0     0        0       0    0        0        0      2     .2
central city
Within the                                                                                                                                                                  100
outer           6       2.8      7.1     0       0       0     30     6.6     35.7     32     15.0     38.1    10      34.5    11.9   6      11.1       7.1   84    8.1
suburb

Total                  100.                             7.     45     100.             21     100.                     100.                  100.             103   100.    100
               214               20.6   77     100.0                          43.5                     20.5    29               2.8   54                5.2
                        0                               4       2      0                3      0                        0                     0                9     0


                       Note: there is zero record for the move from outer to inner suburb; therefore it is excluded from the table.
                                                            Source: 2005 Guangzhou survey
                         Table 10 who moved or did not move in Beijing?
                       Did  not     move       Moved within the        Moved within the   Moved from the        F/χ2
                       (N=329)                 central      city       suburb (N= 461)    central city to the
                                               (N=98)                                     suburb (N=158)
                       Mean       S.D.         Mean    S.D.            Mean     S.D.      Mean       S.D.

Age                    54.44      13.476       56.19       13.373      47.77    12.929    50.54     13.090      21.878**
                                                                                                                *
Gender (0=female)      0.5988      0.491       0.6020      0.492       0.6182   0.486     0.5886    0.494       0.188
Marital status (0=     0.8116      0.392       0.8163      0.389       0.8568   0.351     0.8797    0.326       1.749
others)
Education               1.98       0.607       2.14        0.658       2.26     0.586     2.26      0.640       14.374**
(1=primary,2=seco                                                                                               *
ndary,
3=tertiary)
Household size          2.98       1.103       3.14        0.942       2.90     1.025     2.89      0.903       1.907
Household income       30167.     18761.1      37567.      24195.2     38497.   26665.9   43340.    25324.0     13.046**
                         21          56        76          56          31       10        38        64          *
Car ownership           0.09       0.301       0.19        0.391       0.18     0.414     0.15      0.411       3.522*
CCP (0= non-CCP)       0.2188      0.414       0.3061      0.463       0.3362   0.473     0.2975    0.459       4.379**
Danwei type (1=         2.13       0.904       2.53        0.706       2.19     0.845     2.32      0.815       6.405***
non-state-owned
enterprises,
2=governmental
department      and
institutions,3=
state-owned
enterprises)
Job rank (0= others,   0.1672      0.374       0.2347      0.426       0.2278   0.420     0.2468    0.433       2.033
1= middle to high)
Average                 31.4      27.055       37.22       27.574      28.40    23.437    39.29     26.069      7.407***
commuting time
Housing floor space    88.59      100.090      49.38       21.450      72.62    44.488    61.38     15.746      12.609**
                                                                                                                *
Housing price           2.42       2.847       4.32        6.430       12.39    21.492    11.65     21.905      9.954***
Housing tenure (0=     0.6839      0.466       0.6327      0.485       0.7787   0.416     0.7722    0.421       5.156**
rent)
Housing source (0      0.5076      0.501       0.8776      0.329       0.6421   0.480     0.6835    0.467       17.079**
= private)                                                                                                      *
Year of moving         1967       12.847       1991        7.199       1994     7.052     1994      6.334       614.316*
                                                                                                                **
Year of purchase       1991       14.466       1996        8.451       1997     5.275     1997      4.842       19.688**
                                                                                                                *
Movement                 0           0         1.09        0.324       1.21     0.537     1.14      0.399       651.742*
frequencies                                                                                                     **


                                         Source: 2006 Beijing survey
                                      Table 11 who moved or did not move in Guangzhou?

                               Did no move        Moved within           Moved within the   Moved from          F/χ2
                               (N=101)            central city           suburb (N=386)     central to suburb
                                                  (N=352)                                   (N= 244)
                               Mean      S.D.     Mean       S.D.        Mean      S.D.     Mean       S.D.
Age                            41.33     12.803     40.25    9.030        36.23     8.601    38.23    9.132      14.860***
Gender (0=female)              0.6931    0.4635    0.5702    0.496       0.6172    0.4867   0.6173    0.487        1.797
Marital status (0= others)     0.6733     0.471    0.8367    0.370       0.8021     0.398   0.7860    0.410       4.446**
Education                      2.198      0.633     2.195    0.527        2.300     0.523    2.259    0.484       2.743*
(1=primary,2=secondary,
3=tertiary)
Household size                  3.08      0.717     3.06     0.818        2.87      0.913    2.89     0.898       4.186**
Household income                4.66      2.797     4.11     2.189        7.33      9.316    7.31     7.640      18.164***
Car ownership                   0.02      0.140     0.04     0.197        0.13      0.349    0.19     0.406      15.060***
CCP (0= non-CCP)               0.0198     0.140    0.1146    0.319       0.0885     0.284   0.0782    0.269        3.084*
Danwei type (1= non-state-     0.5248     0.502    0.5244    0.500       0.6094     0.489   0.6667    0.472       4.853**
owned enterprises, 0=
others)
Job rank (0= others, 1=        0.1188     0.325    0.1777    0.383       0.2500     0.434   0.2634    0.441       4.859**
middle to high)
Average commuting time          25.36    17.646    29.15     18.549        26.29   20.480     35.16   18.426    12.140***
Housing floor space             63.25    28.675    65.69     33.088        79.31   31.571     76.51   24.971    16.685***
Housing price                    4.76     6.457    14.09     16.488        24.11   20.319     26.90   16.304    42.790***
Housing tenure (0= rent)        0.6931    0.464   0.7307      0.444       0.7943    0.405    0.8889    0.315     9.178***
Housing source (0 = private)    0.5446    0.500   0.3811      0.486       0.2422    0.429    0.1646    0.372    23.819***
Year of moving                 1974.00    9.745   1994.65     6.636      1998.74    5.283   1999.79    3.756    509.298***
Year of purchase               1979.99   17.036   1994.35     8.025      1998.51    4.200   1999.60    3.880    144.375***
Movement frequencies               0        0       1.66      0.763         1.82    1.108     1.52     0.883    113.995***

                                         Source: 2005 Guangzhou survey
     Summary and discussion
• Residential mobility in Chinese cities is
  closely related to the changing housing
  provision structure. The housing reform
  results in a mixed housing system and
  subsequently influences the residential
  mobility.
• State-redistributive and market-reward
  mechanisms are entangled in the process
  of residential relocation, very differently in
  Beijing and Guangzhou.
                                          14000                                                                                    90.00%

         Total investment (100 million)
                                                                                                                                   80.00%
                                          12000
                                                                                                                                   70.00%
                                          10000
                                                                                                                                   60.00%
                                           8000                                                                                    50.00%

                                           6000                                                                                    40.00%
                                                                                                                                   30.00%
                                           4000
                                                                                                                                   20.00%
                                           2000
                                                                                                                                            Privatization of real
                                                                                                                                   10.00%
                                              0                                                                                    0.00%
                                                                                                                                            estate investment
                                                   1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

                                                   Total investment in urban housing            Real estate investment
                                                   The share of real estate investment


                                          160000                                                                                   35.00%

                                          140000
      Housing floor space (1000 sq.m.)




                                                                                                                                   30.00%

                                          120000
                                                                                                                                   25.00%
                                          100000
                                                                                                                                   20.00%
                                          80000
                                                                                                                                   15.00%
                                          60000
                                                                                                                                   10.00%
                                          40000

                                          20000                                                                                    5.00%

                                              0                                                                                    0.00%
                                                    1995   1996   1997   1998   1999     2000   2001   2002   2003   2004   2005

                                            Total housing floor space completed                 Commodity housing floor space completed
                                          (Includes rural self-built housing)
                                            The share of commodity housing

Figure 1,2 The share of real estate development in housing provision by investment and housing floor space
                                  Source: China Statistical Yearbook, 2006
             Table 8 Types of residential movement by housing tenure in Beijing (N, %column, %row)




                                    Renters                   Owners               Total
                                       N          %                  N      %              N          %

Within the central city                38        19.4                69    11.3            107       13.3

From central city to inner suburb      38        19.4                130   21.3            168       20.9

From inner suburb to central city      6          3.1                32     5.3            38         4.7

Within the inner suburb               108        55.1                363   59.6            471       58.5

From outer suburb to central city      2          1.0                 0     0               2         .2

From outer to inner suburb             4          2.0                15     2.5            19         2.4

Total                                 196        100.0               609   100.0           805       100.0




                                       Source: 2006 Beijing survey
        Table 9 Types of residential movement by housing tenure in Guangzhou (N, %column, %row)



                                              Renters                      Owners                              Total
                                         N          %                 N             %                 N                  %

Within the central city                  94       43.3%              258          31.4%               352              33.9%

From central city to inner suburb        23       10.6%              171          20.8%               194              18.7%

From central city to outer suburb         4        1.8%               46           5.6%               50               4.8%

From inner suburb to central city        16        7.4%               39           4.7%               55               5.3%

Within the inner suburb                  49       22.6%              213          25.9%               262              25.2%

From inner to outer suburb                5        2.3%               35           4.3%               40               3.8%

From outer suburb to central city         0          0                 2            .2%                2                .2%

Within the outer suburb                  26       12.0%               58           7.1%               84               8.1%

Total                                   217       100.0%             822          100.0%             1039              100.0%




Note: there is zero record for the move from outer to inner suburb; therefore it is excluded from the table.
                                     Source: 2005 Guangzhou survey
                        Table 12 multinomial regression analysis for Beijing
                                         Did not move              Moved within the central   Moved within the suburb
                                                                   city
                                                 B       Exp(B)         B        Exp(B)          B          Exp(B)
             Age                               .028     1.028**       .021        1.021        -.022         .978*
             Household size                    .221       1.248       .301       1.351*        .173          1.189
             Household income                 -.025     .975***      -.016        .984*        -.011         .989*
             Gender
                                              -.051      .950        -.098         .906        -.186         .831
             0= Female
             Gender
                                              0(b)         .         0(b)           .           0(b)           .
             1= Male
             Education
                                              .084       1.088       -.461         .631         .052        1.053
             1= primary
             Education
                                              .284       1.328       -.058         .944         .327        1.387
             2= secondary
             Education
                                              0(b)         .         0(b)           .           0(b)           .
             3= tertiary
             Marital status
                                              .406       1.501       .695         2.005         .326        1.385
             0= otherwise
             Marital status
                                              0(b)         .         0(b)           .           0(b)           .
             1= married
             CCP
                                              .101       1.106       .021         1.021        -.447        .639*
             0=non-CCP
             CCP
                                              0(b)         .         0(b)           .           0(b)           .
             1= CCP
             Danwei type
             1= non-state-owned               .568      1.766*       -.317         .728         .389        1.475
             enterprises
             Danwei type
             2= governmental
                                              .010       1.010       -.134         .875         .363        1.438
             department and
             institutions
             Danwei type
             3= state-owned                   0(b)         .         0(b)           .           0(b)           .
             enterprises
             Job rank
                                              -.047      .954        -.010         .990        -.077         .926
             0= others
             Job rank
                                              0(b)         .         0(b)           .           0(b)           .
             1= middle to high
             Housing source
                                              .696      2.006**     -1.006       .366**        -.026         .974
             0=others
             Housing source
             1= danwei/housing                0(b)         .         0(b)           .           0(b)           .
             bureau
             Intercept                       -1.177                 -1.579                     2.126
             Number of cases                  1046
             -2*Log likelihood
                                            2561.240
             (intercept only)
             -2*Log likelihood (final)      2360.072
             Chi-square                    201.168***

Note: ***indicates significant at 0.001, ** significant at 0.01, * significant at 0.05; The reference group is moved from the central city to the suburb
                                                            Source: 2005 Guangzhou survey
                          Table 13 multinomial regression analysis for Guangzhou
                                      Did not move              Moved within the central   Moved within the suburb
                                                                city
                                              B      Exp(B)          B        Exp(B)          B          Exp(B)
            Age                             .046     1.047**       .007        1.007        -.040       .961***
            Household size                  .338      1.403*       .279       1.321*        -.055          .946
            Household income               -.083      .920*       -.215      .807***        .004          1.004
            Gender (0=female)              -.566      .568*        .111        1.117        -.056          .945
            Gender (1=male)                 0(b)         .         0(b)           .          0(b)            .
            Education (0=primary)           .381      1.464        .188        1.207        .613          1.845
            Education
                                           -.823      .439*       -.491        .612*        -.119         .888
            (1=secondary)
            Education (3= tertiary)        0(b)         .         0(b)           .           0(b)           .
            Marital status (0=non-
                                           .982      2.670**      -.283         .753        -.576        .562*
            married)
            Marital status
                                           0(b)         .         0(b)           .           0(b)           .
            (1=married)
            CCP (0= non-ccp)               1.619     5.050*       -.592         .553        -.163         .849
            CCP (1= ccp)                    0(b)        .          0(b)           .          0(b)           .
            Danwei (0= private)            -.065      .937        .051         1.052        -.137         .872
            Danwei (1= state-owned
            enterprises or
                                           0(b)         .         0(b)           .           0(b)           .
            governmental
            institutions)
            Job rank (0= others)           .522       1.685       -.019         .981         .121        1.128
            Job rank (1= middle to
                                           0(b)         .         0(b)           .           0(b)           .
            high rank)
            Housing source
                                          -1.386     .250***      -.788       .455***       -.570        .565**
            (0=private)
            Housing source
            (1=danwei or housing           0(b)         .         0(b)           .           0(b)           .
            bureau)
            Intercept                     -3.825                 1.777                      2.887
            Number of cases                1077
            -2*Log likelihood
                                         2743.992
            (intercept only)
            -2*Log likelihood
                                         2490.601
            (final)
            Chi-square                  253.391***

Note: ***indicates significant at 0.001, ** significant at 0.01, * significant at 0.05
        The reference group is moved from the central city to the suburb
                         Source: 2005 Guangzhou survey

				
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