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Technical Recommendation USDINR

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Technical Recommendation USDINR Powered By Docstoc
					                                          Currency Insight
                      A Daily Comprehensive Report on Currency
                                                                                                                                  23 March 2011
 Currency                                                   PIVOT TABLE
 Exchange                     Contract         Support 2       Support 1                Close            Resistance 1              Resistance 2
  USDINR-MCX-Sx            March                 45.0742              45.14           45.2125                  45.2808                  45.3492
  USDINR-NSE               March                 45.1033              45.16           45.2150                  45.2542                  45.2933
  EUROINR-MCX SX           March                 63.2425              63.52           63.7875                  63.9550                  64.1225
  GBPINR MCX SX            March                 72.4150              72.68           72.9450                  73.1500                  73.3550
  JPYINR MCX SX            March                 54.6675              55.09           55.5175                  55.9500                  56.3825

                                                  TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATION
         Pair            Contract               Buy/Sell                Range                        Target                    Stop loss

   USDINR- Futures        March                   BUY                   45.00                       45.14/45.21                 44.90
   EURINR Futures         March                   BUY                   63.90                       64.22                       63.72
   GBPINR- Futures        March                   BUY                   73.53                       73.88                       73.40
   JPYINR- Futures        March                   BUY                   55.50                       55.76                       55.40


Market Recap:                                                                                   Important Pairs to Watch for
                                                                        CROSS                                 LAST       1 Day ago       % Change
                                                                        USDINR Spot                           44.96            45.01           -0.11
      In line with our recommendation the Indian rupee                 MCX-SX Futures                        45.02            45.11           -0.19
       appreciated by 0.16 percent from previous day’s close of         NSE Futures                           45.02            45.11           -0.18
       45.1075. Other Asian currencies largely appreciated              EURO Futures                          64.03            63.77            0.41
       against the USD.                                                 GBP Futures                           73.44            73.41            0.03
                                                                        JPY (100) Futures                      0.55             0.56           -0.13
      Indian equities ended positive, the Nifty Spot finally
                                                                        ICE Dollar Index                      75.48            75.40            0.10
       closed at 5413 up 0.92 percent. Asian Markets ended with
       gains between 0.3 to 4.5 percent with Japan being the                                    Reference Rates as on 3/22/2011
       biggest gainer.                                                   Pair                                 LAST       1 Day ago         % Change
                                                                         USDINR                               44.97            45.05           -0.18
      On March 18, FII's net sold $15.07 million worth of
                                                                         GBPINR                               73.35            73.05            0.40
       equities while they sold $112.60 million worth of debt
                                                                         JPYINR 100                           55.59            55.65           -0.11
       instruments.
                                                                         EURINR                               63.98            63.81            0.27
      Bond yields largely consolidated after previous day's rally.        Outlook
       Yield on 2020 government bond gained by .003bps at                  On Tuesday, US equity markets ended flattish, Dow
       8.030 percent                                                       giving a close at 12,019 down by 18 points. On Economic
                                                                           Data front the House Price Index m/m came in lower
      Call money market rates rose sharply as weighted average            than expected. For today New Home Sales data is
       call money market rate ended at 7.75 percent an                     expected to come in higher.
       appreciation of .65 percent.
                                                                           All of the Asian equity markets are currently trading
      Against the three Euro and GBP the rupee depreciated by             lower at 0.5-2% may be on account of weak Global
       0.40, 0.62 respectively. Against the Yen the rupee                  markets. SGX nifty is also lower by half percent. Since
       depreciated by 0.06 percent.                                        the Asian equities are trading lower we may see Indian
                                                                           rupee opening on a depreciating note. The Dollar Index
                                                                           is trading slightly positive at 75.592




                        Mail Us at currencyresearch@karvy.com and Visit Us as www.karvyforex.com
                                 Currency Insight
          A Daily Comprehensive Report on Currency




                                                          USD/INR-March Futures: NSE/MCX-SX:
            Technical Update
                                                          Currency pair USD/INR closed lower on Tuesday at
                                                          45.02 levels, declining by 0.19% over the prior
                                                          trading session. It traded in a narrow range
                                                          throughout the day with hardly any movement on
                                                          either side. However on the daily chart it is
                                                          approaching towards its lower Bollinger band level
                                                          which is at 44.95 levels and could be likely that it may
                                                          find support at those levels .The Relative strength
                                                          index (37) also suggests rupee getting closer to the
                                                          oversold zone.
                                                          Resistance is at 45.13 and then 45.25 levels Support is
                                                          at 44.95 and then 44.88 levels
                                                          ‘We could expect the pair to trade in a range of
                                                          44.95-45.14 levels for the day’

                                              MCX-SX PVO Analysis
 USDINR     OPEN         HIGH        LOW      CLOSE % CHANGE            VOLUME     % CHANGE OPEN INTEREST         % CHANGE
 Mar-11     45.07        45.07       45.00     45.02        -0.19      2,787,039        -7.82     548,780             10.05
 Apr-11     45.35        45.36       45.81     45.31        -0.18        167,149        -2.33     244,545               6.96
 May-11     45.59        45.63       45.56     45.57        -0.17         10,596       -84.23      62,963              -3.96
 Jun-11     45.88        45.88       45.81     45.82        -0.22          2,450      139.96       21,799               3.66



                                                NSE PVO Analysis
USDINR     OPEN         HIGH         LOW      CLOSE % CHANGE            VOLUME     % CHANGE OPEN INTEREST         % CHANGE
Mar-11     45.04        45.07        45.00     45.02         -0.18    2,297,527          5.40     651,714              -7.59
Apr-11     45.36        45.36        45.28     45.31         -0.17      239,838          5.40     429,814             11.92
May-11     45.62        45.63        45.55     45.58         -0.18       20,025        -37.96      65,506               3.42
Jun-11     45.85        45.88        45.80     45.83         -0.19       16,266       298.58       33,082             34.95




          MCX-SX Spread Sheet                                                      NSE Spread Sheet
USDINR     Mar-11      Apr-11    May-11      Jun-11     USDINR                     Mar-11      Apr-11   May-11        Jun-11
Mar-11      0.0000                                      Mar-11                      0.0000
Apr-11      0.2850     0.0000                           Apr-11                      0.2825     0.0000
May-11      0.5525     0.2675     0.0000                May-11                      0.5550     0.2725    0.0000
Jun-11      0.8000     0.5150     0.0000     0.0000     Jun-11                      0.8075     0.5250   -0.0099       0.0000




           Mail Us at currencyresearch@karvy.com and Visit Us as www.karvyforex.com
                                                  Currency Insight
                         A Daily Comprehensive Report on Currency


                            Major World Indices                                                      Forwards Market (Onshore & Offshore)
INDICES                               LAST        1 Day ago      % Change         FORWARDS                         LAST        1 Day ago       % Change
NIFTY                              5413.85          5364.75             0.92      1-Mth Forward                  45.2700         45.3323               -0.14
SENSEX                            17988.30        17839.05              0.84      3-Mth Forward                  45.7875         45.8440               -0.12
NASDAQ                             2683.87          2692.09            -0.31      6-Mth Forward                  46.5525         46.5818               -0.06
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL              12018.63        12036.53             -0.15      12-Mth Forward                 47.8800         47.9343               -0.11
SHANGHAI COMPOSITE                 2919.14          2909.14             0.34      1-Mth NDF                      45.2100         45.2600               -0.11
NIKKIE 225                         9608.32        #N/A N/A         #VALUE!        3-Mth NDF                      45.7400         45.7700               -0.07
HANGSENG                          22857.90        22685.22              0.76      6-Mth NDF                      46.4700         46.5200               -0.11
FTSE Index                         5762.71          5786.09            -0.40      12-Mth NDF                     47.7800         47.8200               -0.08




                           Asian Currency Pairs                                                             Debt Market Information
ASIAN/INR                         LAST        1 Day ago        % Change          INDICATORS                            LAST       1 Day ago         % Change
Chinese Yuan                     6.8590            6.8600            -0.01       LIBOR 1Mth                          0.2520           0.2525            -0.20
Hongkong Dollar                  5.7680            5.7730            -0.09       LIBOR 3Mth                          0.3090           0.3090             0.00
Indonesian Rupiah                0.5159            0.5155             0.08       MIBOR 1Mth                          0.9000           0.8900             1.12
Myanmar Ringgit                14.8469            14.8047             0.29       MIBOR 3Mth                          1.1800           1.1800             0.00
Philipinnes Peso                1.0382             1.0345             0.36       U.S. 5Yr Bond Yield                 2.0346           2.0280             0.33
Singapore Dollar               35.5854            35.5518             0.09       U.S. 10Yr Bond Yield                3.3263           3.3282            -0.06
Taiwan Dollar                   1.5222             1.5223            -0.01       India 10Yr Bond Yield               8.0100           8.0030             0.09
Thailand Baht                    1.4889            1.4876             0.09       Call Rate                           7.7500           7.7000             0.65




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