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DISASTER RISK and RISK MANAGEMENT DISASTER RISK and RISK MANAGEMENT

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DISASTER RISK and RISK MANAGEMENT DISASTER RISK and RISK MANAGEMENT Powered By Docstoc
					   INDICATORS OF
    INDICATORS OF
DISASTER RISK
DISASTER RISK
     and
      and
    RISK
     RISK
MANAGEMENT
MANAGEMENT

  Omar D. Cardona
  Omar D. Cardona
      Technical Director
       Technical Director
Program for the Americas
Program for the Americas
   IADB – UNC/IDEA
    IADB – UNC/IDEA
http://idea.unalmzl.edu.co
http://idea.unalmzl.edu.co
     Disaster Risk Management…
     Disaster Risk Management…
needs risk dimensioning, and risk sizing
needs risk dimensioning, and risk sizing
signifies to take into account not only the
signifies to take into account not only the
expected physical damage, victims and
expected physical damage, victims and
economic equivalent loss, but also social,
economic equivalent loss, but also social,
and institutional factors.
and institutional factors.
this means, from the multidisciplinary point
 this means, from the multidisciplinary point
of view, we need to consider hard and soft
 of view, we need to consider hard and soft
variables related to the potential impact of
 variables related to the potential impact of
the events and the capacity of society to
 the events and the capacity of society to
sustain that impact, using evaluation tools
 sustain that impact, using evaluation tools
such as a System of Indicators.
 such as a System of Indicators.
      Why a System of Indicators…
      Why a System of Indicators…
It is necessary to “make risk manifest” in
 It is necessary to “make risk manifest” in
different ways for diverse decision-makers
 different ways for diverse decision-makers
and stakeholders in charge.
 and stakeholders in charge.
The causes of risk must be identified in order
 The causes of risk must be identified in order
to be able to assess the effectiveness of both
 to be able to assess the effectiveness of both
corrective and prospective mitigation meas-
 corrective and prospective mitigation meas-
ures.
 ures.
The follow-up of risk is an unavoidable step
 The follow-up of risk is an unavoidable step
to evaluate the performance of risk reduction.
 to evaluate the performance of risk reduction.
     Objectives of the program…
     Objectives of the program…
Representation of vulnerability and risk at
Representation of vulnerability and risk at
national level, allowing the identification of
national level, allowing the identification of
key issues of their characterization from an
key issues of their characterization from an
economic and social point of view.
economic and social point of view.
Risk management performance benchmar-
 Risk management performance benchmar-
king to facilitate access to relevant inform-
 king to facilitate access to relevant inform-
ation by national decision-makers, which
 ation by national decision-makers, which
facilitates the identification and proposal of
 facilitates the identification and proposal of
effective policies and actions.
 effective policies and actions.
SYSTEM OF INDICATORS
SYSTEM OF INDICATORS

DDI
DDI   ::DISASTER DEFICIT INDEX
        DISASTER DEFICIT INDEX
LDI
LDI   ::LOCAL DISASTER INDEX
        LOCAL DISASTER INDEX
PVI
PVI   ::PREVALENT VULNERABILITY INDEX
        PREVALENT VULNERABILITY INDEX
RMI
RMI   ::RISK MANAGEMENT INDEX
        RISK MANAGEMENT INDEX
      DISASTER DEFICIT INDEX
      DISASTER DEFICIT INDEX
              -- DDI --
                 DDI
Represents country risk from a macroecon-
 Represents country risk from a macroecon-
omic and financial perspective in case of
 omic and financial perspective in case of
possible catastrophic events. This requires an
 possible catastrophic events. This requires an
estimation of the critical impact during a given
 estimation of the critical impact during a given
exposure time, defined as reference, and of
 exposure time, defined as reference, and of
the country financial ability to cope such
 the country financial ability to cope such
situation.
 situation.
 DISASTER DEFICIT INDEX
 DISASTER DEFICIT INDEX




          MCE loss
DDI =
      Economic R esilience
                                                 1
Probability of having at least one disaster
            in the next T E years



                                                0.1




                                               0.01
                                                                      Return period= 20 years
                                                                      Return period= 50 years

                                                                      Return period= 100 years
                                              0.001
                                                      1              10                          100
                                                          Exposure time, T E (years)
       1.0

       0.9

       0.8

       0.7

       0.6
V(I)




       0.5

       0.4
                                              Less vulnerable
       0.3                                    More vulnerable
       0.2

       0.1

       0.0
             0   2        4             6            8          10
                     Intensity (arbitrary units)
 ΣFiPP::POSSIBLE INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL FUNDS
 ΣFi POSSIBLE INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL FUNDS
   WICH COULD BE ACCESSED BY GOVERNMENT
   WICH COULD BE ACCESSED BY GOVERNMENT

F11P,insurance and reinsurance payments,
  P,
F insurance and reinsurance payments,
F22P,availability in funds for disasters
F , availability in funds for disasters
  P

F33P,aids and donations,
F , aids and donations,
  P

F44P,possibility of new taxes,
F , possibility of new taxes,
  P

F55P,margin of budgetary reallocations,
F , margin of budgetary reallocations,
  P

F66P,potential external credit,
F , potential external credit,
  P

F77P,potential internal credit.
F , potential internal credit.
  P
                      L 500 (US$ m illones), 2000                                                                   IDD 500, 2000


                                                                 2 0 16 6               COL                                                                   5.4 0

                      6008                                                              DOM                                                                   5.3 4

                                         119 3 9                                        PER                                                          4 .8 1

                      6331                                                              ECU                                                       4 .56

                                                                            22893       CHL                                                 4 .2 9

                4 78 7                                                                  J AM                                             4 .0 9

      2 52 1                                                                            TTO                                         3 .75

                             8021                                                       SLV                               2 .77

                                                   14 0 3 4                             M EX                1.3 2

    2009                                                                                GTM                 1.3 0

      2662                                                                              ARG                1.2 4

    19 6 3                                                                               CRI       0 .76

0            50 0 0           10 0 0 0         150 0 0        20000          2 50 0 0          0    1               2      3         4                5               6
                             L 100 (US$ m illon) 2000                                                                                IDD 100, 2000


                                                          4 4 79                          PER                                                                       3 .53

                                                                                6649      CHL                                                          2 .4 5

                    13 6 1                                                                DOM                                                          2 .4 5

                                                  3 773                                   SLV                                                  1.9 0

             845                                                                          J AM                                               1.77

                                         3 2 54                                           COL                                        1.3 3

             78 3                                                                         ECU                                     1.14

                                                                            6 2 73        M EX                           0 .8 6

      3 50                                                                                TTO                          0 .76

             8 52                                                                          CRI                0 .3 7

       431                                                                                GTM                0 .3 1

    18 7                                                                                  ARG        0 .10

0          10 0 0      2000       3000       4000           50 0 0   6000        70 0 0          0                         1                    2               3           4
                                  L 50 (US$ m illones) 2000                                                                         IDD 50, 2000


                                                                3 12 2            CHL                                                                                 1.3 9

                                      13 2 9                                      PER                                                                         1.2 6

                      59 8                                                        DOM                                                                        1.2 4

                                                1771                              SLV                                                               0 .9 9

            3 16                                                                  J AM                                                     0 .8 1

                                       13 9 2                                     COL                                             0 .6 1

                                                                         3 79 4   M EX                                          0 .56

           2 70                                                                   ECU                                  0 .4 4

     13 1                                                                         TTO                         0 .3 0

                387                                                                CRI                0 .17

         18 0                                                                     GTM             0 .13

    50                                                                            ARG        0 .0 3

0                            10 0 0             2000     3000            4000            0                                                          1                         2
                                    Ly (US$ m illon) 2000                                                                                 IDD’CE 2000
                                                                                                                                         IDD GC , , 2000


                                          13 8 .5                                              SLV                                                                3 2 .3 1%

                                                                             3 0 2 .1          CHL                            12 .4 7%

     15.9                                                                                      TTO                   9 .2 2 %

            3 4 .7                                                                             J AM                8 .8 2 %

                                      12 3 .5                                                  PER                 8 .72 %

                     56 .3                                                                     DOM                8 .0 7%

           2 9 .7                                                                               CRI               7.8 9 %

                                                    16 3 .1                                    COL         5.9 0 %

             3 8 .5                                                                            ECU     4 .2 2 %

                                                                                    3 2 6 .5   M EX    3 .4 1%

     17.1                                                                                      GTM     1.8 1%

    11.7                                                                                       ARG     0 .4 1%

0            50              10 0         150                 200   2 50   300          3 50          0%          5%            10 %        15%    20%     2 5%    30%        3 5%
     Meaning and possible actions…
     Meaning and possible actions…
DDI > 1.0 means economic incapacity of the
 DDI > 1.0 means economic incapacity of the
country to cope extreme disasters. As greater DDI,
 country to cope extreme disasters. As greater DDI,
greater gap. If constrictions for additional debt
 greater gap. If constrictions for additional debt
exist, this situation implies impossibility to recover.
 exist, this situation implies impossibility to recover.
Economic, financial and planning analysts can
 Economic, financial and planning analysts can
evaluate the budget problem and the need to take
 evaluate the budget problem and the need to take
into account these figures in the financial planning.
 into account these figures in the financial planning.
It is evident the need to invest in the physical
 It is evident the need to invest in the physical
vulnerability reduction to reduce the potential
 vulnerability reduction to reduce the potential
losses. Property insurance, reserve funds streng-
 losses. Property insurance, reserve funds streng-
thening and the need to negotiate contingency
 thening and the need to negotiate contingency
credits are supported to improve resilience.
 credits are supported to improve resilience.
      LOCAL DISASTER INDEX
      LOCAL DISASTER INDEX
             -- LDI --
                LDI
It attempts to capture the social and
 It attempts to capture the social and
environmental risk problems as result from
 environmental risk problems as result from
frequent small events that affects in a
 frequent small events that affects in a
chronic way the sub-national and local
 chronic way the sub-national and local
levels, particularly the lower income and
 levels, particularly the lower income and
fragile socio-economic income groups and
 fragile socio-economic income groups and
generating a detriment effect to the country
 generating a detriment effect to the country
development.
 development.
        DESINVENTAR (La RED)
        DESINVENTAR (La RED)
Database with records of events and effects
Database with records of events and effects
at municipal level.
at municipal level.
Approximately 80,000 records for 16 countries
Approximately 80,000 records for 16 countries
of LAC. Where 70% of the events occurred
of LAC. Where 70% of the events occurred
after 1970.
after 1970.
They were grouped in four types of events,
 They were grouped in four types of events,
that colloquially will be termed: a) landslides
 that colloquially will be termed: a) landslides
and debris flows, b) seismic-tectonic, c) floods
 and debris flows, b) seismic-tectonic, c) floods
and storms, and d) other events.
 and storms, and d) other events.
Many events are generated by the climate variability and due to
Many events are generated by the climate variability and due to
          environmental global change processes
           environmental global change processes
Some phenomena are assumed as natural but they may considered as
Some phenomena are assumed as natural but they may considered as
       socio-natural due to the environmental degradation.
        socio-natural due to the environmental degradation.
         LOCAL DISASTER INDEX
         LOCAL DISASTER INDEX



   LDI = LDI Kills + LDI Affected + LDI Loss


            Each LDI depends of
      the Indices of Persistency (IP)
of the effects in all municipalities for each
                 type of event
                  LDI K 1996-2000                            LDI A 1996-2000                                       LDI LL 1996-2000
                                                                                                                    LDI 1996-2000

COL                              GTM                                  90              SLV                    84                                        75
                                                                                       SLV                                                              75
ECU                              DOM                        82                        CHL              78                                        59
                                                                                       CHL                                                        59
GTM                               ARG                  74                             ARG
                                                                                        61                                               50
                                                                                       ARG                                                50
ARG                                CHL            67                            44    GTM                                          41
                                                                                       GTM                                          41
 CRI                               SLV        65                                42    COL                                          41
                                                                                       COL                                          41
M EX                              ECU 58                                   35        DOM                                          39
                                                                                      DOM                                          39
PER                             4 6J AM                          25                   M EX                                  32
                                                                                       M EX                                  32
DOM                        43     PER                            24                   TTO                             20
                                                                                       TTO                             20
SLV                   33          COL                  13                             ECU                             20
                                                                                       ECU                             20
J AM             19                CRI                 12                              CRI                     15
                                                                                        CRI                      15
CHL        3                     M EX         2                                       J AM                  11
                                                                                        J AM                  11
TTO    0                          TTO     0                                           PER      4
                                                                                       PER         4

   0.0         20.0   40.0           60.0
                                      0.0              80.0
                                                        20.0           100.0
                                                                        40.0                          100.0
                                                                                     60.0 0.0 80.0 20.0                      40.0              60.0    80.0
                                                                                           0.0      20.0                      40.0              60.0    80.0
                                                                           LDI 1996-2000
GTM                              74                                          84                   41

ARG                             67                                   61                      50

DOM                  43                                        78                      39

SLV             33                          42                              75

COL                                   90                             13           41
                                                                                                                   IDL.K
ECU                                  82                               35          20
                                                                                                                   IDL.A
CHL                   44                                  59                                                       IDL.L
M EX                       58                    2        32

 CRI                        65                       12         15

PER                  46                         24    4

JAM        19               25             11

TTO        20


       0                                  50                         100                    150        200   250
                                         LDI   1980 to 2000
2 50 .0


2 0 0 .0


 150 .0                                                                               19 8 1-19 8 5
                                                                                      19 8 6 -19 9 0
10 0 .0                                                                               19 9 1-19 9 5
                                                                                      19 9 6 -2 0 0 0

  50 .0


   0 .0
           TTO   JAM   PER   CRI   MEX   CHL    ECU     COL   SLV   DOM   ARG   GTM
    Meaning and possible actions…
    Meaning and possible actions…
LDI reflects the persistency of the effects, caused
 LDI reflects the persistency of the effects, caused
by the different class of events, on livelihoods and
 by the different class of events, on livelihoods and
local development, perpetuating the poverty.
 local development, perpetuating the poverty.
LDI measures the concentration of losses at local
 LDI measures the concentration of losses at local
level and permits correlating it to the environm-
 level and permits correlating it to the environm-
ental degradation processes.
 ental degradation processes.
Economic analysts and sectoral officials can
Economic analysts and sectoral officials can
detect the persistency and accumulation of effects
detect the persistency and accumulation of effects
of local disasters, the importance to consider risk
of local disasters, the importance to consider risk
problems in the territorial ordering, and the
problems in the territorial ordering, and the
creation of social security nets.
creation of social security nets.
  PREVALENT VULNERABILITY INDEX
  PREVALENT VULNERABILITY INDEX
                    -- PVI --
                       PVI
This indicator attempts to characterize a
 This indicator attempts to characterize a
situation or pattern of the country. Three com-
 situation or pattern of the country. Three com-
posite indices are proposed based on a set of
 posite indices are proposed based on a set of
indicators, that in case of the materializing of
 indicators, that in case of the materializing of
hazard events, favors the direct impact
 hazard events, favors the direct impact
(exposure/susceptibility) and the indirect and
 (exposure/susceptibility) and the indirect and
intangible impact (socio/economic fragility and
 intangible impact (socio/economic fragility and
the lack of resilience).
 the lack of resilience).
    PREVALENT VULNERABILITY INDEX
    PREVALENT VULNERABILITY INDEX




PVI = PVI Exposure + PVI Fragility + PVI Lack of R esilience
                     Hazards                    Hi , i=1, 2,…., m

               ε1   Iε1                       h2            h2               h2               h2




               ε2



                          Risk




                                      Risk




                                                     Risk




                                                                      Risk
                    Iε2            h4 h3           h1 h3
                                                   h4            h1 h3
                                                                  h4              h1
                                                                                   h4 h3           h1




               ε3   Iε3
                    COMPLEX
                                  Vulnerability Vulnerability    Vulnerability    Vulnerability

                                                                                                         Risk
               .
               .
               .
                    EXPOSED
                      Vulnerability
                                                                                                        R(Hi ,V)
  Actuation
  Corrective
 Prospective
   system
intervention        DYNAMIC
               εi IELEMENTS
                   ε V(ε (t),t), i=1,2,….,n)
               .
               .     SYSTEM
                      i
                        i
               .
               εn   Iεn

                                    Risk
                                   Control
                                 Management
                                   system
                                   System
Inappropriate urban growth, without control, and densification of
 Inappropriate urban growth, without control, and densification of
       unsafe housing represent vulnerability conditions.
        unsafe housing represent vulnerability conditions.
Poverty and social segregation are factors of vulnerability
Poverty and social segregation are factors of vulnerability
 INDICATORS OF EXPOSURE/SUSCEPTIBILITY
  INDICATORS OF EXPOSURE/SUSCEPTIBILITY


ES1. Population growth, avg. annual rate (%)
ES1. Population growth, avg. annual rate (%)
ES2. Urban growth, avg. annual rate (%).
ES2. Urban growth, avg. annual rate (%).
ES3. Population density, people/5 Km2
ES3. Population density, people/5 Km2
ES4. Poverty-population below US$ 1 per day PPP
ES4. Poverty-population below US$ 1 per day PPP
ES5. Capital stock, million US$ dollar/1000 km2
ES5. Capital stock, million US$ dollar/1000 km2
ES6. Imports and exports of goods and services, % GDP
ES6. Imports and exports of goods and services, % GDP
ES7. Gross domestic fixed investment, % of GDP
ES7. Gross domestic fixed investment, % of GDP
ES8. Arable land and permanent crops, % land area.
ES8. Arable land and permanent crops, % land area.
 INDICATORS OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC FRAGILITY
  INDICATORS OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC FRAGILITY

SF1. Human Poverty Index, HPI-1.
SF1. Human Poverty Index, HPI-1.
SF2. Dependents as proportion of working age population
SF2. Dependents as proportion of working age population
SF3. Social disparity, concentration of income measured
SF3. Social disparity, concentration of income measured
     using Gini index.
      using Gini index.
SF4. Unemployment, as % of total labor force.
SF4. Unemployment, as % of total labor force.
SF5. Inflation, food prices, annual %
SF5. Inflation, food prices, annual %
SF6. Dependency of GDP growth of agriculture, annual %
SF6. Dependency of GDP growth of agriculture, annual %
SF7. Debt servicing, % of GDP.
SF7. Debt servicing, % of GDP.
SF8. Human-induced Soil Degradation (GLASOD).
SF8. Human-induced Soil Degradation (GLASOD).
       INDICATORS OF RESILIENCE (lack of)
        INDICATORS OF RESILIENCE (lack of)

LR1. Human Development Index, HDI [Inv]
LR1. Human Development Index, HDI [Inv]
LR2. Gender-related Development Index, GDI [Inv]
LR2. Gender-related Development Index, GDI [Inv]
LR3. Social expenditure; on pensions, health, and
LR3. Social expenditure; on pensions, health, and
     education, % of GDP [Inv]
      education, % of GDP [Inv]
LR4. Governance Index [Inv]
LR4. Governance Index [Inv]
LR5. Insurance of infrastructure and housing, % of GD [Inv]
LR5. Insurance of infrastructure and housing, % of GD [Inv]
LR6. Television sets per 1000 people [Inv]
LR6. Television sets per 1000 people [Inv]
LR7. Hospital beds per 1000 people [Inv]
LR7. Hospital beds per 1000 people [Inv]
LR8. Environmental Sustainability Index, ESI [Inv]
LR8. Environmental Sustainability Index, ESI [Inv]
80
                                                                                                                   PVIES
70                                                                                                                                                                                                                         72 71
                                                                                                                            70
60                                                                                                                     66                                                                                                          66 68
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 64
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      58
50                                                                                                                                                                  54
                                                                                                                                                                                   51
                                                                                                                                 50                                      49 50                    50        50                             19 8 5
                                                                    47 46                                                                       48             48                            49
40                                                             44                                                                     43
                                                                                                                                                          45
                                                                                                                                                                                        42                                                 19 9 0
                                                                                                             39 39                         40        39                                                40
30                                                                                    32
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           19 9 5
                                           29                                                   30                                                                                                                                         2000
                                 28                                         28   28
20        24             23 24                  23 24 22
                                                                                           26

                                      18
10   15        17
                    14                                                                               13 13

0
          CHL              COL                  PER                 GTM               M EX             ARG                  ECU                 CRI             DOM                     TTO                 SLV              J AM




70
                                                                                                                   PVIS F
60                                                                                                                                                                                                                         63 65 64
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      59              60
                                                                                                                                                                                             58
50                                                                                                                                                                                 54             56
                                                                                                                                                                              51        50             50
                                                                                                                                                          49                                                47
                                                                                                                                      46
40                                                                                         42
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 45                        19 8 5
                                                                                                                  41                                 40
                                                                       37             37                     38                  36                                                                                                        19 9 0
30             32
                                                35
                                                                            32                  32   32 32
                                                                                                                                                33
                                                                                                                                                                         35
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           19 9 5
                         30 28 28                    29                                                                                                             30
                                                                                                                                           27                  26
20                  21
                                      23   22
                                                          25   25 25             25
                                                                                                                       23 24
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           2000
     19
10        13

0
          CHL               CRI                 PER                 M EX              TTO              DOM               ARG                    COL                 ECU                 J AM                SLV              GTM
100                                                                                                         PVILR
 90                                                                                                                                                                                                        95 95 96
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      92
 80
 70                                                                                                                                                                    75                  75 74
                                                                                                                                                                            71           71
 60                                                                                           62 60
                                                                                                                                       65               63 6162               65 64                   67
                                                                                                                             59   60        6159   59                                                                      19 8 5
 50                                                                               55
                                                                                51 51
                                                                                                      55 55
                                                                                                                53
                                                                                                                     56 55
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           19 9 0
 40                                                         43 45 43
                                                                     46              47
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           19 9 5
 30                                                    33
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           2000

 20   22
           26 25
                   23   23 22
                                26 26
                                                  22
 10                                     18
                                             14
  0
           CHL            CRI                ARG                 TTO               COL          M EX                 ECU               DOM              J AM                SLV               PER            GTM




70                                                                                                    PVI TO TA L
                                                                                                                                                                                              69 69
                                                                                                                                                                                         68
60                                                                                                                                                                                                         62 6162 62
                                                                                                                                                                                    60                60
                                                                                                                                                                               58
50                                                                                                                                                                     55 56
                                                                                                                                                        52        51
                                                                                                                                       50 49 50
                                                                                                                                                   48                                                                      19 8 5
                                                                                                                                  47                         47
40                                                               44
                                                                      42
                                                                                                                     44
                                                                                                                        43                                                                                                 19 9 0
                                                  40        40                                                  40 41
                                             37        38                  38   38 39 40 39                40
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           19 9 5
30                        33            34                                                            32                                                                                                                   2000
                        31 3132

20           25
           21 20
      19                                                                                      18 17
10

 0
           CHL            CRI                COL                 PER              M EX          ARG               TTO              DOM                  ECU              SLV                  GTM            J AM
   Meaning and possible actions…
   Meaning and possible actions…
PVI reflects social and economic fragility
 PVI reflects social and economic fragility
conditions that favor the direct and indirect
 conditions that favor the direct and indirect
impact, and it reflects the lack of capacity to
 impact, and it reflects the lack of capacity to
absorb the consequences.
 absorb the consequences.
It is possible to identify issues as targets to
 It is possible to identify issues as targets to
guide the actions; aspects that express
 guide the actions; aspects that express
situations, causes, weaknesses or lacks that
 situations, causes, weaknesses or lacks that
favor the potential consequences.
 favor the potential consequences.
It is emphasized the relation between risk and
 It is emphasized the relation between risk and
development.
 development.
     RISK MANAGEMENT INDEX
     RISK MANAGEMENT INDEX
             -- RMI --
                RMI
Composite index that measures the country
 Composite index that measures the country
performance level on risk management,
 performance level on risk management,
taking into account its organization, develop-
 taking into account its organization, develop-
ment and institutional action to reduce
 ment and institutional action to reduce
vulnerability, reduce loss in case of hazard
 vulnerability, reduce loss in case of hazard
events, preparedness for response in case of
 events, preparedness for response in case of
crisis, and efficient recovery.
 crisis, and efficient recovery.
 Disaster Risk Management -- DRM
 Disaster Risk Management DRM

Involves four different, but related
 Involves four different, but related
public policies:
 public policies:
a) Risk identification;
a) Risk identification;
b) Risk reduction;
b) Risk reduction;
c) Disaster management;
c) Disaster management;
d) Risk transfer.
d) Risk transfer.
  INDICATORS OF RISK IDENTIFICATION
   INDICATORS OF RISK IDENTIFICATION



IR1. Systematic disaster and loss inventory
 IR1. Systematic disaster and loss inventory
IR2. Hazard monitoring and forecasting
 IR2. Hazard monitoring and forecasting
IR3. Hazard evaluation and mapping
 IR3. Hazard evaluation and mapping
IR4. Vulnerability and risk assessment
 IR4. Vulnerability and risk assessment
IR5. Public information and community participation
 IR5. Public information and community participation
IR6. Training and education on risk management
 IR6. Training and education on risk management
      INDICATORES OF RISK REDUCTION
       INDICATORES OF RISK REDUCTION

RR1. Risk consideration in land use and urban planning
RR1. Risk consideration in land use and urban planning
RR2. Hydrographic basin intervention and environmental
RR2. Hydrographic basin intervention and environmental
     protection
      protection
RR3. Implementation of hazard-event control and
RR3. Implementation of hazard-event control and
     protection techniques
      protection techniques
RR4. Housing improvement and human settlement
RR4. Housing improvement and human settlement
     relocation from prone-areas
      relocation from prone-areas
RR5. Updating and enforcement of safety standards and
RR5. Updating and enforcement of safety standards and
     construction codes
      construction codes
RR6. Reinforcement and retrofitting of public and private
RR6. Reinforcement and retrofitting of public and private
     assets
      assets
  INDICATORS OF DISASTER MANAGEMENT
   INDICATORS OF DISASTER MANAGEMENT

MD1. Organization and coordination of emergency
MD1. Organization and coordination of emergency
     operations
      operations
MD2. Emergency response planning and implementation
MD2. Emergency response planning and implementation
     of warning systems
      of warning systems
MD3. Endowment of equipments, tools and infrastructure
MD3. Endowment of equipments, tools and infrastructure
MD4. Simulation, updating and test of inter institutional
MD4. Simulation, updating and test of inter institutional
     response
      response
MD5. Community preparedness and training
MD5. Community preparedness and training
MD6. Rehabilitation and reconstruction planning
MD6. Rehabilitation and reconstruction planning
      INDICATORS OF GOVERNANCE AND
       INDICATORS OF GOVERNANCE AND
           FINANCIAL PROTECTION
            FINANCIAL PROTECTION
PF1. Interinstitutional, multisectoral and decentralizing
PF1. Interinstitutional, multisectoral and decentralizing
     organization
      organization
PF2. Reserve funds for institutional strengthening
PF2. Reserve funds for institutional strengthening
PF3. Budget allocation and mobilization
PF3. Budget allocation and mobilization
PF4. Implementation of social safety nets and funds
PF4. Implementation of social safety nets and funds
     response
      response
PF5. Insurance coverage and loss transfer strategies of
PF5. Insurance coverage and loss transfer strategies of
     public assets.
      public assets.
PF6. Housing and private sector insurance and
PF6. Housing and private sector insurance and
     reinsurance coverage
      reinsurance coverage
        RISK MANAGEMENT INDEX
        RISK MANAGEMENT INDEX

RMI = RMI RI + RMI RR + RMI DM + RMI FP
                                          N

                                          ∑w I     i
                                                            t
                                                           ic
      RMI   t
            c ( RI , RR , DM , FP )   =   i =1
                                              N                 ( RI , RR , DM , FP )
                                           ∑w
                                            i =1
                                                       i


      Using linguistic variables for qualification:
      Low, incipient, appreciable, notable and optimum
                                                      Risk management
                  1

Effectiveness   0.8

                0.6

                0.4

                0.2

                  0
                      0         10     20     30      40     50      60     70        80   90        100
                                             Performance levels of risk management
                 1

                0.8
Mambership




                0.6

                0.4
                          Low    Incipient          Appreciable                  Notable   Optimum
                0.2

                 0
                      0         10      20    30      40     50      60     70        80   90        100
                                                    Risl Management Index
                                                                                                   RMI RI
60
                                                                                                                                                                                                                57
50                                                                                                                                                                      53                  54

                                                                                                                                 48                 49
                                                                                                             45
40                                                                     41
                                                                                         43
                                                                                                                                                                   40                  40                            19 8 5
                                                                                                        39
                    36        36                                                                                                               37                            37 37
                                                                                                                                                              34                                           35        19 9 0
30                       32        32              32             33
                                                                                                   31                       32
                                                                                                                                                                                                                     19 9 5
                                                                                                                                                                                                      28
                                                                                                                       25                                                                                            2000
                                                                                    25
20

                                                             15
10             11                                       11
                                                                                                                                      13 12              13
         9 9                            10 10 10                                              10                  11                                                                             10
                                                                                8
     5                                                                      7
0
         DOM             SLV              GTM                ECU                ARG                CHL                 COL                CRI                 J AM                M EX                PER


                                                                                                   RMI RR
60

50
                                                                                                                                                                                                                50
                                                                                                                                                                                                           46
40                                                                                                                                                            41 41 41
                                                                                                                                                                                            44
                                                                                                                                               40 40                                   39                             19 8 5
                                                                                                                                 36                                                                                   19 9 0
30                                                                                       33                  33
                                                             30 30 30                                                                                    29                                           29              19 9 5
                                                   29
                                                                                25 25                                                                                                                                 2000
20
                                   17                                                                                       17
         16 16 16                                                                                                                         15
10                            14                                                                        14                                                                        14
                                              11        11                                                             10                                                    11
                                                                            9
     5              5 5                 5 5                                                   5 5                 5                   5                                                          5
0
         ECU             GTM              DOM                J AM               ARG                SLV                 PER                M EX                CHL                 COL                 CRI
                                                                                            RMIDM
80
70
                                                                                                                                                                                                        67
60                                                                                               65                                                                                 65
                                                                                                                                                                60
                                                                                                                                       57
50                                                                                                                                          52
                                                                                                                                                 54        56                                                19 8 5
                                                                                                                                                      51
                                                                                                                        48                                                                                   19 9 0
40                                                                                43                  43                                                                                           45
                                                                                                                                                                                                             19 9 5
                                                                                                                                                                               41
                                              38               39                                                                 37
30                                                                                                                                                                        33                  32
                                                                                                                                                                                                             2000
                              29
20                                                                                                              26 26                                                                    25

10           13       12 12        14 14 14
                                                       16 16
                                                                        12
                                                                             16             16
                                                                                                                             13
     5 5 5        5                                9                5                  5                   9                                                         11
0
      DOM             COL             SLV              ECU              M EX                CRI                 PER               ARG                 J AM                GTM                 CHL


                                                                                            RMIFP
70
60                                                                                                                                                                                                      63

50
                                                                                                                                                                                    51                       19 8 5
40                                                                                                                                                                                                 45
                                                                                                                                                                                                             19 9 0
                                                                                                                38 38 39                    39                  40
                                                                                            36 37 37                                                                                                         19 9 5
30                                                                                                                                                                        33 33
                                                                             31 32                                                                         32                            31 31               2000
                                                                                                           29                                                        27
20
                                                               17
10                                            12
                                                                        15             14                                              14             12
     5 5 5 5      5 5 6 6          5 5 5           5 5 8            6                                                        5 5                 5
0
      ECU             ARG            DOM               PER              GTM                 J AM                SLV               M EX                COL                 CRI                 CHL
                               RMI R I 2000                               RMIR R 2000                                 RMID M 2000                               RMI F P 2000

M EX                            CRI 54                                        50 CHL                                       CHL
                                                                                                                           67                                   63

J AM                           COL53                                   44       GTM                                        CRI
                                                                                                                           65                              51

PER                              53
                               CHL                                    41        J AM                                  6 0COL                          40

 CRI                           M EX
                                 49                                  40         ARG                              52    M EX                           39

COL                            PER
                                48                              35              PER                         44             SLV                        39

CHL                            SLV
                               45                           33                   CRI                    43             J AM                           37

ARG                        4 ARG
                             3                             33                   M EX                    43             GTM                       32

ECU                         J
                          4 1 AM                           30                   ECU                    39                  PER              17

GTM                  32    DOM                        29                        SLV                    38              DOM             12

SLV                  32        GTM           17                                 COL               29                   ARG         6

DOM        11                  ECU           16                                 DOM          13                        ECU        5

       0        10        20          0 30        10 4 0             2 0 50       3 0 06 0        40   20             50         0 0 60
                                                                                                                                 4                    20
                                                                                                                                                      60              4
                                                                                                                                                                     80 0      60   80
                                                                   RMI TO TA L, 2000

CHL                  45                        41                               67                                  63

 CRI                  49                            50                          43                             51

J AM                      53                   30                          60                             37

M EX                      54                        40                     43                        39                               IR
COL                   48                        44                    29                  40
                                                                                                                                      RR
PER                       53                    35                    44                  17
                                                                                                                                      MD
GTM             32             17                        65                          32
                                                                                                                                      PF
SLV             32                  33                    38                    39

ARG                  43                   33                    52                   6

ECU              41                  16              39        5

DOM        11         29            13    12

       0                             50                        10 0                            150                       200   2 50
       Current Urgent Concerns…
       Current Urgent Concerns…
Although many best and exemplary mitigation
Although many best and exemplary mitigation
practices exist these are still by far the
practices exist these are still by far the
exception and not the rule.
exception and not the rule.
A lack of knowledge is not the problem but,
 A lack of knowledge is not the problem but,
rather, the lack of coverage and effectiveness
 rather, the lack of coverage and effectiveness
in the implementation of risk reduction policies
 in the implementation of risk reduction policies
and measures.
 and measures.
The problem is growing far faster than the
 The problem is growing far faster than the
solution.
 solution.
   Challenges for DRM Improvement…
   Challenges for DRM Improvement…

Disaster risk assessment undertaken from a
Disaster risk assessment undertaken from a
holistic perspective to promote political-will
holistic perspective to promote political-will
and -feasibility.
and -feasibility.
DRM performance evaluation to get political
DRM performance evaluation to get political
commitment, visibility, effectiveness and to
commitment, visibility, effectiveness and to
move forward.
move forward.
Global networked governance and dialogue
 Global networked governance and dialogue
for the follow up of the governments’ DRM
 for the follow up of the governments’ DRM
performance.
 performance.
When ...the facts are uncertain,
When ...the facts are uncertain,
   ...the values are in dispute,
    ...the values are in dispute,
          ...the stakes are high,
           ...the stakes are high,
and ...the decisions are urgent.
and ...the decisions are urgent.

				
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