Developing and Deploying CHP _ Renewable Energy Technologies

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Developing and Deploying CHP _ Renewable Energy Technologies Powered By Docstoc
					Improving Energy
Efficiency, Indoor
Air Quality &
Durability in HUD
Code Manufactured
Housing Standards
HUD Manufactured Housing
Consensus Committee (MHCC)
Meeting May 23, 2007
Michael Lubliner – MHCC member
Building Science Specialist WSU
Energy Program
                    Background
• NFPA-501 – 1999 through 2005
• Pacific Northwest (PNW) Super Good Cents/NEEM
• Energy Star PNW & National Program
• MHCSS/MHCC Uo Economic Analysis
• USDOE Building America Industrialized Housing Partnership
• Published Peer Reviewed Research Papers
Position on Technical Meeting Issues
 • Vent Free Gas Products – Just say no!
 • In-Plant Duct Leakage Testing – Just do it!
 • Condensation Control – Devil’s in the details!
 • Window Standards – Storm windows in new homes?
 • Energy Efficiency Improvements (Uo) – IECC equiv?
      NFPA-501 Energy & Building Science
                Opportunities
•   4.3.1.3 Lighting requires T8 lamps - Energy Star fixtures & bulbs?
•   4.3.2 Whole house ventilation - ASHRAE 62.2?
•   8.5 Air Infiltration - Add Appendix 8.5.1.1 for “air sealing details”?
•   8.6.1.1 Heat Transmission - Update Uo to IECC/Energy Star levels?
•   8.8.5 Window U-values - Use NFRC NOT AAMA?
•   8.8.5 Cooling - Add Appendix A-8.8.5 on roof solar reflectance?
•   8.8.3 Insulation - Add Appendix 8.8.3 for “installation details”?
•   8.8.7.1 Cooling - Add Appendix 8.7.1 SHGC (save ½ ton on AC size)?
•   10.14.10 Duct Materials – Mastic vs. tape on inside of ducts?
•   10.14.8 Crossover Duct Insulation – Add R8 insulation all zones
•   10.14.5 Duct Testing – support MHCC proposed 5% or 3% leakage?
       Pacific Northwest NEEM* Program
•   Over 120,000 HUD-code homes built since 1988
•   Utilities invest $100,000,000 in Demand Side Management
•   Provided a “better deal” then new coal power plant
•   R21 walls, R38-49 ceiling, R33 floors, Vinyl Low E Glass
•   SEO quarterly inspections + HUD process
•   Duct leakage testing in plants + random field testing
•   Problem home technical assistance
•   Northwest Council - ACEEE paper + 2007 letter to Congress
(*) Northwest Energy Efficient Manufactured (NEEM) Homes built to Super Good Cents and Energy Star
NEEM vs. National Energy Star Program
• Over 5000 Energy Star PNW homes since 2004
• 3863 of 5170 Energy Star homes were built in PNW in 2006
• All 19 PNW plants ship to WA, OR, ID, MT, CA, NV, UT
• Over 60% of PNW HUD-code Homes are Energy Star
• Utility incentives to buyer + $1000 tax credit to builder
• Energy Star similar to SGC + improved duct testing + mastic
• What we learned “don’t wait for the dealer to sell it”
                  What We Have Accomplished
        120,000

        100,000
                  Over 112,000 (58%) of New
                  Manufactured Homes Produced
         80,000   since 1988 Have Been Super
                  Good Cents/Energy Star
Homes




         60,000
         40,000
         20,000
             0
             88

             89

             90

             91

             92

             93

             94

             95

             96

             97

             98

             99

             00

             01

             02

             03
           19

           19

           19

           19

           19

           19

           19

           19

           19

           19

           19

           19

           20

           20

           20

           20
PNW Industry Support - 100% NEEM
                               participation (19 plants)
                        9000                                                                             70%

                        8000                                                 64%
                                                       61%                                         62%   60%
                        7000
  # of homes produced




                                  51%                                                                    50%
                        6000




                                                                                                               Penetration
                        5000                                                                             40%

                        4000                                                                             30%
                        3000
                                                                                                         20%
                        2000
                                                                                                         10%
                        1000

                          0                                                                              0%
                               2001                2002                   2003                  2004

                                        Total Production     NEEM Total      NEEM Penetration
R33 Batt Floor Insulation
R33 Blown Floor Insulation
In-floor Duct System
Duct Leakage Testing
    In-plant and on-site
Focus on Performance Testing/Tools
      WSU Energy House
USDOE Building America Research

                 The nation’s most energy efficient
                 HUD-code home in 1996.

                 This home costs less than $60 a
                 month in utility bills.

                 Located near Olympia, WA
                 in a marine climate (my home!)
 Zero Energy Manufactured Home
USDOE Building America Research
            The nation’s current most energy efficient
            HUD-code home cost less than
            $40 a month in utility bills and provides
            solar electricity to the utility grid.

            Located near Lewiston, ID
            in a cold climate
   NIST Manufactured Home
              Installed Jan 2002
Very leaky ducts & envelope = lost opportunity
          Air Leakage Control
      “Build Tight Ventilate Right”
Marriage Line & floor gaskets, Tight CFL Can-Lights
House Tightness – AIVC 2003
Metal Duct Risers & Trunk Mastic Systems
Outside Duct Leakage – AIVC 2003
                                NEEM vs. Site Built Energy Codes
                         250%
                                                           HUD 1976 Standard
Use Relative to SGC/NC




                         200%                              HUD 1994 Standard


                                                           Super Good Cents/Natural
                         150%
                                                           Choice
                                                           Oregon Code
                         100%
                                                           Washington Code - Zone 1
                         50%
                                                           Washington Code - Zone 2

                          0%
                  Life Cycle Cost Input Assumptions:
                        The “Things” That Vary
•   Mortgage Rate and Term
•   Consumer Discount Rate
•   Downpayment
•   Private Mortgage Insurance (for less than 20% down)
•   Retail Electricity and Natural Gas Prices
•   Retail Electricity and Natural Gas Price Escalation Rate
•   State and Federal Income Tax Rate
•   Property Tax Rate
•   Homeowner’s Insurance Rate
•   Measure Incremental Cost (function of home size and price)
•   Measure Incremental Savings (function of home size, heating system type and
    fuel source)


       slide 10
                  16%
                                                           Consumer Life Cycle Cost Model Schematic




                                                                                                     Share of Homebuyers (%)
                                                                                                                                     70%
                  14%




                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Share of Homebuyers (%)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 45%
Probability (%)




                  12%                                                                                                                60%                                                                                                         40%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 35%
                  10%                                                                                                                50%                                                                                                         30%
                   8%                                                                                                                40%                                                                                                         25%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 20%
                   6%                                                                                                                30%                                                                                                         15%
                   4%                                                                                                                                                                                                                            10%
                                                                                                                                     20%                                                                                                          5%
                   2%                                                                                                                                                                                                                             0%
                                                                                                                                     10%
                   0%




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      0

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      5

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      5

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      0

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      5

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      0

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      5

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      0

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                                                                                                                                                0%




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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     0
                    5.0%                             6.0%        7.0%           8.0%          9.0%




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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  0

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  0

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  0

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  0
                                                                                                                                                      0.0%    5.1%    7.0%    7.1%       7.8%   9.0%




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 $

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 $

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 $

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 $

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 $

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 $

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 $

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 $

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 $

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 $

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 $
                                                   Nominal Morgage Rate (% APR)
                  18%                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Retail Rate (2000$/ kWh)
                                                                                                                                                             Marginal State Income Tax Rate
                  16%
Probability (%)




                  14%
                  12%
                  10%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Forecast: WALL R21 STD+R5
                   8%                                                                                                                     INPUT ASSUMPTIONS
                   6%                                                                                                                                                                                                                   1,000 Trials                                                       Frequency Chart                                                                    1,000 Disp layed
                                                                                                                                                        Savings               Capital
                   4%                                                                                                                                                                                                                             .043                                                                                                                                                     43
                   2%                                                                                                               Measure Name        (kwh/yr)               Cost
                   0%                                                                                                          WALL R21 ADV                 995              $    313                                                             .032                                                                                                                                                     32.25
                                                                                                                               WINDOW CL35                  729              $    243
                           %


                                            %


                                                    %


                                                          %


                                                                %


                                                                      %


                                                                            %


                                                                                   %


                                                                                          %
                          5


                                           5


                                                   5


                                                         5


                                                               5


                                                                     5


                                                                           5


                                                                                  5


                                                                                         5
                                          1


                                                  2


                                                        3


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                                                                    5


                                                                          6


                                                                                 7


                                                                                        8




                                                                                                                               FLOOR R38 STD w/12"Truss     506              $    686                                                             .022                                                                                                                                                     21.5
                                                           Downpayment (%)
                                                                                                                               ATTIC R49 ADVrh              369              $    557
                                                                                                                               WINDOW CL30                  720              $ 1,265                                                              .011                                                                                                                                                     10.75
                  30%
                                                                                                                               WINDOW CL25                  714              $ 1,351                                                                                                                                            Mean = $689
                  25%
Probability (%)




                                                                                                                               VAULT R38 HD                 194              $    414                                                             .000                                                                                                                                                     0

                  20%                                                                                                          WALL R21 STD+R5              681              $ 1,786                                                                     ($3,509)                      ($1,131)                         $1,247                                 $3,625                         $6,003
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Dollars
                  15%                                                                                                          WALL 8" SSPANEL              751              $ 2,444
                  10%                                                                                                          ATTIC R60 ADVrh                93             $    320
                  5%
                                                                                                                               WALL R33 DBL                   82             $ 1,253                                            25%
                                                                                                                               VAULT 10" SS Panel             26             $ 1,444




                                                                                                                                                                                                       Share of Household
                  0%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                20%
                                           3.27%        3.80%    3.85%     3.93%        2.50%
                                               Nominal Annual Electricity Price Escalation
                                                                 Rate                                                                                                                                                           15%
                                                                                                                      Share of Homebuyers (%)




                                                                                                                                                35%

                                         60%
                                                                                                                                                30%                                                                             10%

                                                                                                                                                25%
                   Share of Homebuyers




                                         50%                                                                                                                                                                                              5%
                                                                                                                                                20%
                                         40%
                                                                                                                                                15%                                                                                       0%




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             $10,000 to



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          $20,000 to



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        $30,000 to



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      $50,000 to



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   $75,000 to



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   $100,000 to



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 $150,000 to



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  $200,000 to



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                $500,000 to



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              $1,000,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   $10,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Under




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              and above
                                         30%                                                                                                    10%




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              $19,999



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           $29,999



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         $49,999



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       $74,999



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    $99,999



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    $149,999



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  $199,999



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   $499,999



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 $999,999
                                         20%                                                                                                    5%

                                         10%                                                                                                    0%
                                                                                                                                                      10%       21%       27%           31%     39%
                                         0%                                                                                                                  Marginal Federal Income Tax Rate
                                                   1.14%        1.23%           1.49%
     Net Present Value by Measure, Heating
                  Cold Climate
$3,000                           Floor R33

                                 Attic R25

$2,500                           Vault R25

                                 Attic R30

$2,000                           Vault R30

                                 Class 40 Windows

$1,500                           Class 35 Windows

                                 Class 30 Windows

$1,000                           Walls R21 Advanced Framed

                                 Attic R38

 $500                            Vault R38

                                 Attic R49

   $0                            Floor R44
                Summary – NWPPC 2004
• All measures tested have higher Net Present Values (NPV) than current
    HUD code minimums, in all PNW climate zones and across all heating
    system types

• The “regionally cost-effective” thermal shell (Uo) is roughly the current
    NEEM standard (Uo =.049-.054)
                                    and
•   Is equal to the “maximum” NPV thermal shell (Uo) – i.e, the shell that
    provides the consumer with the lowest life cycle cost.
 NEEM Label Identifies
Value in the Marketplace

      Single wide            $1700.
      Double wide            $2200.
      Triple wide            $2500.

      See section 3, page 13 for details
                Super Good Cents Adds Value
               Spokane, WA. 70 degree indoor temp. $.05 kWh

Down payment




                                                    Net Energy Savings
                                                      after additional
                                                    mortgage payment

                                                  Added Resale Return
                                                  per NADA appraisal
 National Cost Effectiveness Research

• PNNL/HUD 1992 Study - Resulted in current Uo
• PNNL/DOE 2002, ACEEE 2004 - Suggested Uo improvements
• NFPA-501 2005 - Reduced PNNL/DOE improvements
• ASHRAE 2007 - HUD92, NFPA05, ESTAR, IECC and BA
• Senate Energy 2007 Hearings - ASE proposes IECC
• MHCSS 2007 - “do the right thing ????”
• NFPA 501 2008 – “think long term” (i.e. Toyota Prius!)
       Uo Comparison – ASHRAE 2007

Zone HUD94    NFPA05     PNL04     IECC     Estar
1    .116     .098       .089      .097     .087
2    .096     .090       .077      .067     .084
3    .079     .073       .064      .062     .059

(*) Nominal R-value of floor, ceiling & wall & U = windows
Consumer Cost Comparison - ACEEE 2004
       HUD 1994 to IECC 2006
    Zone    Floor   Roof    Walls   Glass    Delta - Uo & $

    1       11-13   30-30   11-13   1-2A     .116 - .097
            $89     $0      $70     $547        $706

    2       11-19   30-38   11-13   1stm-2V .095 - .067
            $495    $150    $70     $275       $990

    3       22-25   30-38   11-19   1stm-ES .078 - .062
            $135    $150    $510    $455       $1250

    PNNL mfg cost data x 1.85 mfg x 1.35 dealer mark-up
    Floor + ceiling + wall + windows = total
    Nominal R-value of floor, ceiling & wall, U=window
    Consumer Monthly Mortgage Increase
         HUD 1994 to IECC 2006

Zone Total Cost      20 yr @ 12%           30 yr @ 7%

1      $706          $7.77/mo.             $4.70/mo.

2      $990          $10.90/mo.            $6.59/mo.

3     $1250          $13.76/mo.            $8.32/mo.

Assumes: 1500 ft2 two section home @12% glass
   Consumer Monthly Energy Savings
  HUD 1994 to IECC 2006 - ASHRAE 2007

Zone   Electric    Nat. Gas     Propane      HP
1      $10.42      $7.67        $11.92       $8.08
2      $15.17      $8.83        $13.72       $8.92
3      $28.67      $16.83       $26.16       $16.00

Assumes:
$0.09-0.10/kWh, $1.10/therm NG, $1.90/gallon or 1.71/therm
       Consumer Monthly Mortgage
      Base Uo on sub-prime lending?
Scenario #1 - US Bank San Diego, 5/07
Senior Buyer - 5% down, 600-650 credit score
Loan = 20-25 year term @ 11.75%

Scenario #2 - 21st Mortgage, 5/07 “Bottom Feeders” Loans
Marginal Buyer - 5% down, (sub-prime)
Loan = 20 year @ 14.25% - Future loan defaults?
                        CONCLUSIONS
• Significant improvements in energy efficiency and HVAC performance are
  achievable at minimal or no incremental monthly cost to the homebuyer

• Energy improvements are cost effective if utility saving is converted to
  increased mortgage purchase power, and increased resale value is
  recognized, OR using Life Cycle Costs

• Areas of improvement include: building envelope & duct air leakage, HVAC,
  lighting, appliances, insulation and windows/doors

• Improvements result in greater occupant comfort and control of the indoor
  environment (drafts, moisture, mold, IAQ pollution etc.)
• Reduced moisture and durability related liabilities to homebuyers, dealers,
  builders, insurance companies and lenders

• National adoption of IECC will save over $20 millions of dollars per year in
  utility bills to new homebuyers. Energy Star homes + Energy Star HVAC will
  save consumers to over $750,000,000 over 30 years, at 2004 production

• Other benefits include; increased energy independence, reduce national
  residential energy consumption, reduce power plant greenhouse gas
  emissions and climate change impacts. Lower federally subsidized low
  income utility bill voucher & weatherization taxpayer expenses.

• Start with 100% Energy Star and use your Tax Credits and explore win-win
  solutions with other stakeholders. Energy Star = $1000/home x 150,000
  homes/yr = $150,000,000/year from IRS to stockholders or homebuyers?

• Want site built home interest rates, then build to site built energy codes”
            HUD-Code Housing
Alliance to Save Energy Senate Testimony
                      New Homes with Federally Subsidized
                      Mortgages and New Public Housing:
                      “About one in 12 new homes in the
                      United States is a manufactured
                      housing unit (147 million in 2005).
                      Because these homes are factory-
                      produced with many standardized
                      components, manufactured housing
                      units should be inherently more energy-
                      efficient than their site-built
                      counterparts. To qualify for a federally
                      insured mortgage, a new home should
                      be required to meet or exceed the
                      efficiency levels of the model energy
                      code (currently the 2006 IECC). This
                      will assure that federal taxpayer funds
                      are not used to underwrite inefficient
                      new homes with higher utility bills.”
          HUD-CODE Housing
Impacts National & Environmental Security
                      MHI Modern Homes Mar/April 2007

                      “Although the high efficiency of Energy
                      Star Homes improves comfort, lowers
                      monthly energy bills and total home
                      ownership and results in lower carbon
                      emissions that are good for the
                      environment, it has been slow to gain
                      wide spread market acceptance in the
                      factor built housing industry.
                      Higher first cost remains the single
                      greatest market barrier.”
          HUD-CODE Housing
Impacts National & Environmental Security
                     HUD Report to Congress Aug 8, 2006

                     “Promoting Energy Efficiency at HUD in a
                       Time of Change”

                     Section 6.1 – Implement energy efficiency
                       recommendations of the MHCC in
                       HUD-code homes
          HUD-CODE Housing
Impacts National & Environmental Security
                     Executive Order – Jan. 24, 2007

                     “Strengthening Federal Environmental,
                     Energy and Transportation Management”

                     Goal: Reduce greenhouse gases through
                     reduction in energy intensity of 3% per
                     year, or 30% BY 2015

				
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